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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Streamlining Tactical Operator Handoffs During Multi-Vehicle Applications

Increased automation has shifted the operator control paradigm from a single operator controlling a single vehicle, to multiple operators collaborating to control multiple vehicles; this paradigm is known as m:N. Many questions remain unanswered in this new operational paradigm about the division of assets as workload for individual operators varies overtime. This paper explores the management of workload by enabling operators to temporarily handoff vehicles among each other. A study was conducted to explore both a manual and assisted method for performing handoffs during manipulated contingency scenarios. The assisted handoff method allowed subjects to easily choose and group nominal and/or contingency vehicles. The number of contingencies was also manipulated to determine the effect workload had on how pilots utilized the ability to handoff vehicles. Results show subjects performed handoffs more often when there were more contingencies and when the assisted handoff tool was available. In addition, the assisted tool make subjects feel more comfortable, enabling them to feel like they could take longer to resolve contingency situations. Lastly, even during contingencies, subjects were able to successfully complete secondary tasks.

M:N operations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Streamlining Tactical Operator Handoffs During Multi-Vehicle Operations

Increased automation has shifted the operator control paradigm from a single operator controlling a single vehicle, to multiple operators collaborating to control multiple vehicles; this paradigm is known as m:N. Many questions remain unanswered in this new operational paradigm about the division of assets as workload for individual operators varies over time. This paper explores the management of workload by enabling operators to temporarily handoff vehicles among each other. A study was conducted to explore both a manual and assisted method for performing handoffs during manipulated contingency scenarios. The assisted handoff method allowed subjects to easily choose and group nominal and/or contingency vehicles. The number of contingencies was also manipulated to determine the effect workload had on how pilots utilized the ability to handoff vehicles. Results show subjects performed handoffs more often when there were more contingencies and when the assisted handoff tool was available. In addition, the assisted tool made subjects feel more comfortable, enabling them to feel like they could take longer to resolve contingency situations. Lastly, even during contingencies, subjects were able to successfully complete secondary tasks.

m:N operations↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantitative Risk Management - Risk Informed Decision Making on High-Risk Waste Remediation Projects - 19022

For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2024

Safety Assessment of Conformance Monitoring for Situational Awareness in UTM Operations

This report presents a systematic approach to evaluating the safety benefit of utilizing strategic deconfliction and Conformance Monitoring for Situational Awareness to manage the traffic that is comprised of both conforming aircraft and contingent aircraft. First, we developed a Monte-Carlo-based simulation platform that generates a range of nominal flight paths, a set of flight paths associated with contingent aircraft, encounters between conforming and contingent aircraft, and simulates aircraft's reported positions within conformance bounds. Next, we derived the mathematical equations for quantifying the level of safety, represented by the probability of mid-air collision per flight hour, using the flight data from the simulation platform. Finally, we compared the safety benefit of CMSA services in scenarios generated at different traffic densities and rates of contingent aircraft. This study suggests that strategic deconfliction and CMSA services can collaboratively handle traffic mixed with conforming and contingent aircraft more safely than strategic deconfliction alone.

CMSA↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hybrid Cascading Outage Analysis of Extreme Events with Optimized Corrective Actions

Power system are vulnerable to extreme contingencies (like an outage of a major generating substation) that can cause significant generation and load loss and can lead to further cascading outages of other transmission facilities and generators in the system. Some cascading outages are seen within minutes following a major contingency, which may not be captured exclusively using the dynamic simulation of the power system. The utilities plan for contingencies either based on dynamic or steady state analysis separately which may not accurately capture the impact of one process on the other. We address this gap in cascading outage analysis by developing Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) that can analyze hybrid dynamic and steady state behavior of the power system, including protection system models in dynamic simulations, and simulating corrective actions in post-transient steady state conditions. One of the important implemented steady state processes is to mimic operator corrective actions to mitigate aggravated states caused by dynamic cascading. This paper presents an Optimal Power Flow (OPF) based formulation for selecting corrective actions that utility operators can take during major contingency and thus automate the hybrid dynamic-steady state cascading outage process. The improved DCAT framework with OPF based corrective actions is demonstrated on IEEE 300 bus test system.

Cascading outage↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Onboard ISS Virtual Reality Trainer

Prior to the retirement of the Space Shuttle, many exterior repairs on the International Space Station (ISS) were carried out by shuttle astronauts, trained on the ground and flown to the station to perform these repairs. After the retirement of the shuttle, this is no longer an available option. As such, the need for the ISS crew members to review scenarios while on flight, either for tasks they already trained or for contingency operations has become a very critical subject. In many situations, the time between the last session of Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) training and an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) task might be 6 to 8 months. In order to help with training for contingency repairs and to maintain EVA proficiency while on flight, the Johnson Space Center Virtual Reality Lab (VRLab) designed an onboard immersive ISS Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT), incorporating a unique optical system and making use of the already successful Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphical (DOUG) graphics software, to assist crew members with current procedures and contingency EVAs while on flight. The VRT provides an immersive environment similar to the one experienced at the VRLab crew training facility at NASA Johnson Space Center. EVA tasks are critical for a mission since as time passes the crew members may lose proficiency on previously trained tasks. In addition, there is an increased need for unplanned contingency repairs to fix problems arising as the ISS ages. The need to train and re-train crew members for EVAs and contingency scenarios is crucial and extremely demanding. ISS crew members are now asked to perform EVA tasks for which they have not been trained and potentially have never seen before.

Miralles, Evelyn↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Onboard ISS Virtual Reality Trainer

Prior to the retirement of the Space Shuttle, many exterior repairs on the International Space Station (ISS) were carried out by shuttle astronauts, trained on the ground and flown to the Station to perform these specific repairs. With the retirement of the shuttle, this is no longer an available option. As such, the need for ISS crew members to review scenarios while on flight, either for tasks they already trained for on the ground or for contingency operations has become a very critical issue. NASA astronauts prepare for Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) or Spacewalks through numerous training media, such as: self-study, part task training, underwater training in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL), hands-on hardware reviews and training at the Virtual Reality Laboratory (VRLab). In many situations, the time between the last session of a training and an EVA task might be 6 to 8 months. EVA tasks are critical for a mission and as time passes the crew members may lose proficiency on previously trained tasks and their options to refresh or learn a new skill while on flight are limited to reading training materials and watching videos. In addition, there is an increased need for unplanned contingency repairs to fix problems arising as the Station ages. In order to help the ISS crew members maintain EVA proficiency or train for contingency repairs during their mission, the Johnson Space Center's VRLab designed an immersive ISS Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT). The VRT incorporates a unique optical system that makes use of the already successful Dynamic On-board Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) software to assist crew members with procedure reviews and contingency EVAs while on board the Station. The need to train and re-train crew members for EVAs and contingency scenarios is crucial and extremely demanding. ISS crew members are now asked to perform EVA tasks for which they have not been trained and potentially have never seen before. The Virtual Reality Trainer (VRT) provides an immersive 3D environment similar to the one experienced at the VRLab crew training facility at the NASA Johnson Space Center. VRT bridges the gap by allowing crew members to experience an interactive, 3D environment to reinforce skills already learned and to explore new work sites and repair procedures outside the Station.

Miralles, Evelyn↗
DOE OSTI2017

The benefits of grid-scale storage on Oahu

The Hawaiian Electric Company intends to procure grid-scale Battery Energy Storage System (“BESS”) capacity. The purpose of this study is to determine whether providing contingency reserve or time-of-day shifting is of more benefit to the Oahu grid, and to better understand the relationship between BESS size and level of benefit. This is an independent study by Sandia, and is not being used to support the regulatory case for BESS capacity by Hawaiian Electric. The study team created a production cost model of the Oahu grid using data primarily from the Hawaiian Electric Company. The proposed BESS supplied contingency reserve in one set of runs and time-of-day shifting in another. Supplying contingency reserve led to larger savings than time-of-day energy shifting. Assuming a renewable reserve and a quick-start reserve, and $15/MMBtu for Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil, the 50-MW/25-MWh, 100-MW/50-MWh, and 150-MW/75-MWh systems supplying contingency reserve provided, respectively, savings of 9.6, 15.6, and 18.3 million USD over system year 2018. Over the range of fuel prices tested, these cost savings were found to be directly proportional to the cost of fuel. Lastly, as the focus is the operational benefit of BESS capacity, the capacity value of the BESS was not included in benefit calculations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards smart corrective switching: analysis and advancement of PJM's switching solutions

Transmission switching, as a power flow control mechanism that can reduce costs and improve reliability, has gained a lot of attention during the last decade. Despite its benefits, industry adoption has been very limited due to its computational complexity, stability and AC performance concerns. Pennsylvania New Jersey Maryland (PJM) has published a list of corrective switching solutions to relieve actual and post‐contingency network violations. The list is developed based on operators ’ prior knowledge and offline studies. This study employs a fast AC‐based real‐time contingency analysis (RTCA) tool with corrective transmission switching (CTS) functionality to analyse PJM's switching solutions with actual PJM data. The results show that the RTCA CTS tool is almost always able to find solutions that perform better than, or equally as well as, PJM's solutions. The results also show that PJM's list identifies solutions for only 3% of the problematic contingencies with post‐contingency violations over the course of one week. The RTCA CTS tool, however, is able to find corrective TS solutions for almost all the cases. The results suggest that CTS is ripe for industry adoption. The tool provides significant savings and would pave the road towards a smarter transmission network as an essential ingredient of the future smart grid.

Balasubramanian, Pranavamoorthy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transactive energy systems for distributed blackstart and service recovery

Abstract Current transactive controls use marginal benefits and marginal costs to achieve an economic market efficiency during normal grid operations. However, the transactive mechanisms designed for normal economic operations cannot be applied directly for the contingencies because the grid operations during contingencies are often dictated by technical needs rather than purely economic criteria. For instance, one of the key technical requirements for the blackstart is to have at least one blackstart capable resource cleared which cannot be ensured by the transactive mechanism designed for normal economic operations because they work primarily based on the marginal benefit and marginal cost of the participants. This article presents one of the first attempts to develop a transactive mechanism to be used during grid contingencies. A distributed blackstart and service recovery is used as an example contingency to evaluate the performance of the proposed transactive mechanism. The performance of the proposed transactive mechanism is demonstrated for various use cases using a modified IEEE‐123 node test system. The simulation results demonstrated the proof of concept of applying a transactive mechanism to enable distributed blackstart and service recovery by engaging the mix of blackstart capable and non‐capable distributed energy resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Three-Stage Production Cost Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Benefits of Intra-Hour Scheduling Between Balancing Authorities

This paper introduces a production cost modeling approach for evaluating the benefits of intra-hour scheduling among Balancing Authorities (BAs). System operation is modeled in a three-stage sequential manner: day ahead (DA)-hour ahead (HA) real time (RT). In addition to contingency reserve, each BA will need to carry out 'up' and 'down' load following and regulation reserve capacity requirements in the DA and HA time frames. In the RT simulation, only contingency and regulation reserves are carried out as load following is deployed. To model current RT operation with hourly schedules, a new constraint was introduced to force each BA net exchange schedule deviation from HA schedules to be within North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) area control error (ACE) limits. Case studies that investigate the benefits of moving from hourly exchange schedules between Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) BAs into 10-minute exchange schedules under two different levels of wind and solar penetration (11% and 33%) are presented.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Step Towards Machine Learning-based Coherent Generator Grouping for Emergency Control Applications in Modern Power Grid

A dynamic neural network (NN) based multi-class classifier is proposed for improving online prediction of coherent generator groups (CGGs), following the occurrences of various contingencies in the power grid. This is motivated by the increasing availability of the measurements from phasor measurement units (PMUs) and the number of grouping schemes is limited. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, by performing offline simulations, a library of system dynamic responses characterized by post-contingency rotor angles and speeds of individual generators is obtained. To generate sufficient data, up to N-2 contingencies and the uncertain parameters associated with the power grid including type and location of disturbance and fault clearing times are modeled. Secondly, the training data-set is produced by generating labels for individual contingencies using a hierarchical clustering method based on rotor angle and speed data. Lastly, the dynamic NN models are trained for online applications such as emergency controls and controlled islanding. The proposed method is tested on the standard 16-generator 68-bus system to demonstrate its performance. Furthermore, the impact of the sample data lengths on the CGG numbers is evaluated. It is interesting to observe that the time domain stability behaviors can be determined by examining the changes in the CGG numbers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Earth Science Afternoon Constellation: Preparing for Autonomous but Coordinated Operations

This paper describes how the challenges of coordinating the autonomous operations of geographically dispersed mission control centers for several small and large satellites are being overcome. The Earth Science Afternoon Constellation, also referred to as the "A-Train", is an international grouping of five NASA satellites (two major NASA EOS missions and three NASA/Earth System Science Pathfinder missions) and one French satellite orbiting in close proximity. This grouping of satellites provides scientists with the opportunity to perform coincident observations using data from two or more instruments on various satellites with measurements taken at approximately the same time. Three of the six missions are currently on-orbit, with the two missions expected to join the constellation later this year and one mission in 2007. The operational challenges are daunting for several reasons. There are several Mission Control Centers (widely separated on two continents), operating autonomously under tight budget constraints. All of the Mission Control Centers have reasons to be concerned about safety while flying in close proximity to other satellites, but most Centers did not have the resources or the desire to address this concern alone - the interfaces are too numerous and anticipated operations too costly. Clearly, an efficient approach was needed. This paper describes the steps taken to make this Earth science constellation a reality. Agreements were forged to allow the Mission Control Centers to maintain their autonomy, while ensuring their satellite's safety. Each member mission in the constellation operates independently in accordance with its own mission requirements, but the member missions have agreed to coordinate their operations, i.e., orbital positions and control to ensure the safety of the entire constellation. A centralized system was developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to collect, analyze, and distribute ephemeris data used by each of the mission teams to determine the positions of the satellites in the constellation. The system issues warnings regarding possible dangerous configurations, eliminating the need for redundant capabilities at each Mission Control Center. On-orbit contingency situations were identified and analyzed; agreements were reached in advance of contingency operations to ensure that coordination between the Mission Control Centers can be handled expeditiously and fairly. In this manner, recovery from anomalous situations can be more quickly realized, thereby increasing the science return and reducing costs. The process used to develop these contingency procedures and the systems used to facilitate the contingency resolution are described as well.

Case, Warren↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Interaction of the Space Shuttle Launch and Entry Suits and Sustained Weightless on Astronaut Egress Locomotion

The purpose of this study was to determine the consequences of extended periods of weightlessness during space missions on astronauts f ability to perform a simulated contingency egress while wearing either of the Launch and Entry suits immediately after space flight. In our previous lab-based study of simulated contingency egress, we found only 4 of 12 non-astronauts wearing the Launch and Entry Suit (LES) successfully completed the simulated egress. However, 4 of 4 of the previous failures (when tested wearing the LES), were then successful in completing the test wearing the Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES). Therefore, this study tested 21 Astronaut Volunteers wearing either the LES or ACES while performing a simulated egress on a treadmill (TM) onboard the Crew Transportation Vehicle immediately after space flight at either the Kennedy Space Center or Edwards AFB. Astronauts walked for 400 meters at 1.6m/sec with g-suit inflation level set to preflight testing levels, visor down, breathing from the suit emergency O2 supply. Metabolic, heartrate, and perceived exertion data were collected during these post-flight tests. Exactly the same preflight simulated egress tests on a TM were performed in the lab at NASA/JSC by each crewmember at L-60. Preflight testing found 2 of the 21 crewmembers were unable to complete the simulated contingency egress. Postflight, 9 crew (8 ACES, 1 LES) completed the simulated contingency egress of 400 meters at 1.6m/sec. and 12 failed to meet that standard (7 ACES, 5 LES). Preflight physiological response tests failed to identify crew capable of performing the egress vs. those who failed. However, 18 of the 21 crew did make at least 2.67 minutes into the postflight egress testing. At that point in time, heartrate was higher (P <=.20) for the failures compared to the finishers. These findings indicate that NASA fs switch to the ACES for space flight crews should be expedited.

Greenisen, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Analysis Method for Non-Nominal First Acquisition

First this paper describes a method how the trajectory of the launcher can be modelled for the contingency analysis without having much information about the launch vehicle itself. From a dense sequence of state vectors a velocity profile is derived which is sufficiently accurate to enable the Flight Dynamics Team to integrate parts of the launcher trajectory on its own and to simulate contingency cases by modifying the velocity profile. Then the paper focuses on the thorough visibility analysis which has to follow the contingency case or burn performance simulations. In the ideal case it is possible to identify a ground station which is able to acquire the satellite independent from the burn performance. The correlations between the burn performance and the pointing at subsequent ground stations are derived with the aim of establishing simple guidelines which can be applied quickly and which significantly improve the chance of acquisition at subsequent ground stations. In the paper the method is applied to the Soyuz/Fregat launch with the MetOp satellite. Overall the paper shows that the launcher trajectory modelling with the simulation of contingency cases in connection with a ground station visibility analysis leads to a proper selection of ground stations and acquisition methods. In the MetOp case this ensured successful contact of all ground stations during the first hour after separation without having to rely on any early orbit determination result or state vector update.

Sieg, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2010

Adaptive Planning: Understanding Organizational Workload to Capability/ Capacity through Modeling and Simulation

In August 2003, the Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) established the Adaptive Planning (AP) initiative [1] with an objective of reducing the time necessary to develop and revise Combatant Commander (COCOM) contingency plans and increase SECDEF plan visibility. In addition to reducing the traditional plan development timeline from twenty-four months to less than twelve months (with a goal of six months)[2], AP increased plan visibility to Department of Defense (DoD) leadership through In-Progress Reviews (IPRs). The IPR process, as well as the increased number of campaign and contingency plans COCOMs had to develop, increased the workload while the number of planners remained fixed. Several efforts from collaborative planning tools to streamlined processes were initiated to compensate for the increased workload enabling COCOMS to better meet shorter planning timelines. This paper examines the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP) directed contingency planning and staffing requirements assigned to a combatant commander staff through the lens of modeling and simulation. The dynamics of developing a COCOM plan are captured with an ExtendSim [3] simulation. The resulting analysis provides a quantifiable means by which to measure a combatant commander staffs workload associated with development and staffing JSCP [4] directed contingency plans with COCOM capability/capacity. Modeling and simulation bring significant opportunities in measuring the sensitivity of key variables in the assessment of workload to capability/capacity analysis. Gaining an understanding of the relationship between plan complexity, number of plans, planning processes, and number of planners with time required for plan development provides valuable information to DoD leadership. Through modeling and simulation AP leadership can gain greater insight in making key decisions on knowing where to best allocate scarce resources in an effort to meet DoD planning objectives.

Hase, Chris↗