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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Crop Considerations for Human Exploration

NASA has been actively working to both determine how many crops will be needed for early exploration missions as well as updating the “Crop Readiness Level” (CRL) for a library of crops that can be selected for supporting a long-term mission. The Crop Readiness Level (CRL) is modelled after NASA’s Technology Readiness Level (TRL) approach for developing and advancing new technologies for space, first suggested by Barry Finger and published by Wheeler and Strayer [2]. The CRL model has nine levels from “crop identification” to “consumed in space.” The number and variety of crops needed is impacted by both primary factors (nutrition, menu fatigue, behavioral health system resiliency) as well as secondary factors such as ECLSS considerations, crop robustness, and hardware considerations.

Gioia D Massa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Large area application of a corn hazard model

An application test of the crop calendar portion of a corn (maize) stress indicator model developed by the early warning, crop condition assessment component of AgRISTARS was performed over the corn for grain producing regions of the U.S.S.R. during the 1980 crop year using real data. Performance of the crop calendar submodel was favorable; efficiency gains in meteorological data analysis time were on a magnitude of 85 to 90 percent.

Ashburn, P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Signature-extendable technology - Global space-based crop recognition

The use of signature-extendable technology to improve the efficiency of machine processing of remotely sensed data is examined. Temporal profile technology is employed to automatically recognize crops; the technique uses the Kauth and Thomas (1976) transform of Landsat, multidata, and parameters derived from a model of each crop's greenness-time trajectory. The basic characteristics of temporal profile technology and the U.S. based labeling algorithm are described. Consideration is given to signature extension, signature-extendable spaces, and signature-extendable features. The greenness and brightness parameters used in temporal profile technology are derived. The signature extendability of the parameters is evaluated by applying them to the analysis of corn and soybean crops in the U.S. and Argentina. It is noted that the technique is an affordable and efficient method for deriving data on crops on a global basis.

Hall, Forrest G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Airborne hyperspectral imaging of nitrogen deficiency on crop traits and yield of maize by machine learning and radiative transfer modeling

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient that directly affects plant photosynthesis, crop yield, and biomass production for bioenergy crops, but excessive application of nitrogen fertilizers can cause environmental degradation. To achieve sustainable nitrogen fertilizer management for precision agriculture, there is an urgent need for nondestructive and high spatial resolution monitoring of crop nitrogen and its allocation to photosynthetic proteins as that changes over time. Here, we used visible to shortwave infrared (400–2400 nm) airborne hyperspectral imaging with high spatial (0.5 m) and spectral (3–5 nm) resolutions to accurately estimate critical crop traits, i.e., nitrogen, chlorophyll, and photosynthetic capacity (CO 2 -saturated photosynthesis rate, V max,27 ), at leaf and canopy scales, and to assess nitrogen deficiency on crop yield. We conducted three airborne campaigns over a maize (Zea mays L.) field during the growing season of 2019. Physically based soil-canopy Radiative Transfer Modeling (RTM) and data-driven approaches i.e. Partial-Least Squares Regression (PLSR) were used to retrieve crop traits from hyperspectral reflectance, with ground truth of leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll, V max,27 , Leaf Area Index (LAI), and harvested grain yield. To improve computational efficiency of RTMs, Random Forest (RF) was used to mimic RTM simulations to generate machine learning surrogate models RTM-RF. The results show that prior knowledge of soil background and leaf angle distribution can significantly reduce the ill-posed RTM retrieval. RTM-RF achieved a high accuracy to predict leaf chlorophyll content (R 2 = 0.73) and LAI (R 2 = 0.75). Meanwhile, PLSR exhibited better accuracy to predict leaf chlorophyll content (R 2 = 0.79), nitrogen concentration (R 2 = 0.83), nitrogen content (R 2 = 0.77), and V max,27 (R 2 = 0.69) but required measured traits for model training. We also found that canopy structure signals can enhance the use of spectral data to predict nitrogen related photosynthetic traits, as combining RTM-RF LAI and PLSR leaf traits well predicted canopy-level traits (leaf traits × LAI) including canopy chlorophyll (R 2 = 0.80), nitrogen (R 2 = 0.85) and V max,27 (R 2 = 0.82). Compared to leaf traits, we further found that canopy-level photosynthetic traits, particularly canopy V max,27 , have higher correlation with maize grain yield. This study highlights the potential for synergistic use of process-based and data-driven approaches of hyperspectral imaging to quantify crop traits that facilitate precision agricultural management to secure food and bioenergy production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat

Agricultural yields are highly susceptible to changes in weather system patterns, including both annual and sub-annual changes in temperature and precipitation. Understanding the impacts of future changes in meteorological variables on crop yields have been widely studied in both empirical and process-based models. This work presents a structural econometric approach that combines historical weather data with information about the biophysical growth cycles of maize, winter wheat, and soy to predict the year-to-year yield responses for rainfed crops. Modeled soil moisture and temperature are taken as key predictors, which allows testing the fitted rainfed model’s ability to predict irrigated yields by assuming irrigation produces the numerically optimal level of soil moisture. This approach is grounded in known biophysical processes, which improves confidence in the model predictions. It produces estimates of interannual variability in yields, which enable study of the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity. Finally, it enables prediction of the potential impacts of changing weather patterns on irrigated crops in areas that are currently primarily rainfed. We present the results of the empirical model, fitted with rainfed data; out-of-sample validation on irrigated crops; and projections of yield shocks under multiple future climate scenarios. Under a bias-corrected GFDL RCP8.5 scenario, this approach predicts average yield change, relative to 2006-2020 average yields, across U.S. counties in the 2040-2060 period of -16.9% and -13.4% for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -19.1% and -18.4% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -4.0% and -2.0% for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat. And in the 2070-2090 period of -30.3% and -28.8 % for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -33.1% and -32.8% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -6.5% and -5.2%for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop−water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980−2009) and mid-century climates (2040−2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to ~31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS1985

Measurement and Modeling of the Optical Scattering Properties of Crop Canopies

The specular reflection process is shown to be a key aspect of radiation transfer by plant canopies. Polarization measurements are demonstrated as the tool for determining the specular and diffuse portions of the canopy radiance. The magnitude of the specular fraction of the reflectance is significant compared to the magnitude of the diffuse fraction. Therefore, it is necessary to consider specularly reflected light in developing and evaluating light-canopy interaction models for wheat canopies. Models which assume leaves are diffuse reflectors correctly predict only the diffuse fraction of the canopy reflectance factor. The specular reflectance model, when coupled with a diffuse leaf model, would predict both the specular and diffuse portions of the reflectance factor. The specular model predicts and the data analysis confirms that the single variable, angle of incidence of specularly reflected sunlight on the leaf, explains much of variation in the polarization data as a function of view-illumination directions.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Overview of US AID-World Bank-NASA Collaboration to Address Water Management Issues in the MENA Region

The World Bank, USAID and NASA have recently established a joint project to study multiple issues pertaining to water related applications in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The main concentration of the project is on utilization of remote sensing data and hydrological models to address crop irrigation and mapping, flood mapping and forecasting, evapotranspiration and drought problems prevalent in this large geographic area. Additional emphases are placed on understanding the climate impact on these areas as well. Per IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century MENA region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. These observations generate multiple products such as soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gases, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed-via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, droUght assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Finally, capacity building is a critical part of this project and NASA will assist in this effort as well.

Habib, Shahid↗
DOE OSTI2021

An integrated Imaging and Modeling Toolbox for Accelerated Development of Root-focused Crops at Field Scales

This project, led by Yuxin Wu at the LBNL, was proposed to develop an integrated imaging-modeling toolbox allowing for accelerated development of root-focused crops at field scales. Our approach is based on a novel root phenotyping method we termed Tomographic Electrical Rhizosphere Imaging (TERI), which provides advanced phenotyping of key root traits by sensing the electrical impedance response of roots and soil to external electrical excitations, and mapping these responses to root and soil properties. The role of Noble Research Institute in this project is to assist TERI model establishment and validation by collecting various above- and below-ground traits data from container- and field-grown plants (mainly wheat). Over the last three years, Noble Research Institute has conducted 3 phases of experiments as proposed including: (Phase 1) greenhouse and hoop-house experiments in wheat and pecan plants grown under controlled container-grown conditions; (Phase 2) space-planted individual plant field experiment using different wheat varieties; and (Phase 3) small-plot planted field experiment using different wheat varieties, as well as using different small grains species including wheat, rye, triticale, oat and barley for increasing plant variation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Evaluation of CropManage Decision-Support Model for Vineyard ET Estimation

The CropManage(CM) decision-support web application was originally developed by U.C. Cooperative Extension to support evapotranspiration (ET) based irrigation scheduling and nutrient management of cool-season vegetables. The model uses prescribed crop phenology curves to develop daily estimates of fractional green canopy cover (Fc) within the field. Periodic Fc observations acquired by ground-based methods or imported from NASA’s Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) can be used to adjust the prescribed timeseries for such factors as weather anomalies or non-standard agronomic practice, as needed. Fc is then converted to daily crop coefficient (fraction of reference ET) values. The crop coefficient is combined with reference evapotranspiration, collected by the California Irrigation Management Information System, to derive daily ET estimates for the given field. Irrigation runtime recommendations are issued for a given date based on total ET since the last irrigation event (less any rainfall), and corrected for distribution uniformity of the water delivery system. In this project, CM was adapted to vineyards by adding sub-models to account for early-season depletion of stored soil moisture, cover crop presence, and intentional water stress. An initial trial was performed on a Central Coast winegrape vineyard, where an eddy covariance tower measured daily ET during from May-Dec 2020. Total ET for the period showed strong agreement between the tower-based measurements (443 mm) and the CM model (431 mm). The model tended to overestimate cumulative ET during mid-June by up to 30 mm (about 15%) and later underestimated cumulative ET by as much as 65 mm (about 23%) in late September, suggesting that additional model calibration is needed to improve simulation of within-season variability. Results will be reported for trials on additional vineyard sites conducted during the 2021 season.

Evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Timing and extent of crop damage by wild pigs (Sus scrofa Linnaeus) to corn and peanut fields

The global expansion of wild pigs over the last few decades has resulted in an increase in extent and distribution of damages to crops, placing a growing strain on agricultural producers and land managers. Despite the extent of wild pig damage to agriculture, there is little data regarding timing and spatial variability of damage to corn (Zea mays Linnaeus) and we found no data regarding the effect of these factors on peanuts (Arachis hypogaea Linnaeus). Our objective was to determine the timing and extent of wild pig damage to corn and peanut fields, as well as the extent to which local habitat attributes are useful predictors of damage to these crops. During 2017–2018 we performed ground-based surveys throughout the growing season for 29 corn and 41 peanut fields in South Carolina, USA to determine the most important growth stages for wild pig depredation in both crops. Damage to corn peaked shortly after planting during the seedling stage, fell to nearly zero during V4–V6 stages, and resumed during the silk and mature stages. Peanut damage was almost exclusively limited to the seedling stage. Landscape models for both crops identified the extent of forested and wetland areas surrounding crop fields as the most important attributes positively associated with wild pig damage, while the amount of adjacent agricultural area and paved roads were associated negatively. The number of wild pigs identified by remote cameras also was an important indicator of the extent of damage to peanut fields. Results suggest management efforts to limit crop depredation by wild pigs should be targeted shortly prior to planting. Further, because damage was positively associated with the availability of wetland and forest habitats, our results suggest agricultural damage by wild pigs may be most severe near areas of preferred native habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗