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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Measured Thermal And Fast Neutron Fluence Rates ATR Cycle 169A

This report contains the thermal (2200 m/s) and fast (E>1MeV) neutron fluence rate data for ATR Cycle 169A which were measured by the Radiation Measurements Laboratory (RML) as requested by the Power Reactor Programs (ATR Experiments) Radiation Measurements Work Order. This report contains fluence rate values corresponding to the particular elevations (relative to the 80-ft. core elevation) where the measurements were taken. The data in this report consists of ( 1) a table of the ATR power history and distribution, (2) a hard copy listing of all thermal and fast neutron fluence rates, (3) plots of both the thermal and fast neutron fluence rates, and (4) an optical record (compact disk) containing a listing of the thermal and the fast neutron fluence rates, their assigned elevations and proper header identification of all monitor positions contained herein. The fluence rates reported are for the average power levels given in the table of power history and distribution. No neutron monitors were located in the N-2 position during this cycle. All "SR" holder monitor wires for this cycle are 55 inches long. This length allows measurements from 24.73 inches above core midplane to 25.25 inches below core midplane. The distance from the end of the wires to the first count position was 4.25 inches for all wires counted from this cycle.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifunctional Separator Allows Stable Cycling of Potassium Metal Anodes and of Potassium Metal Batteries

Here, this is the first report of a multifunctional separator for potassium-metal batteries (KMBs). Here, double-coated tape-cast microscale AlF 3 on polypropylene (AlF 3 @PP) yields state-of-the-art electrochemical performance: symmetric cells are stable after 1000 cycles (2000 h) at 0.5 mA cm –2 and 0.5 mAh cm –2 , with 0.042 V overpotential. Stability is maintained at 5.0 mA cm –2 for 600 cycles (240 h), with 0.138 V overpotential. Postcycled plated surface is dendrite-free, while stripped surface contains smooth solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Conventional PP cells fail rapidly, with dendrites at plating, and “dead metal” and SEI clumps at stripping. Potassium hexacyanoferrate(III) cathode KMBs with AlF 3 @PP display enhanced capacity retention (91% at 100 cycles vs 58%). AlF 3 partially reacts with K to form an artificial SEI containing KF, AlF 3 , and Al 2 O 3 phases. The AlF 3 @PP promotes complete electrolyte wetting and enhances uptake, improves ion conductivity, and increases ion transference number. The higher of K + transference number is ascribed to the strong interaction between AlF 3 and FSI – anions, as revealed through 19 F NMR. The enhancement in wetting and performance is general, being demonstrated with ester- and ether-based solvents, with K-, Na-, or Li- salts, and with different commercial separators. In full batteries, AlF 3 prevents Fe crossover and cycling-induced cathode pulverization.

NMB↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precise Tailoring of Lithium-Ion Transport for Ultralong-Cycling Dendrite-Free All-Solid-State Lithium Metal Batteries

All-solid-state lithium metal batteries can address crucial challenges regarding insufficient battery cycling life and energy density. The demonstration of long-cycling dendrite-free all-solid-state lithium metal batteries requires precise tailoring of lithium-ion transport of solid-state electrolytes (SSEs). Here, in this work, a proof of concept is reported for precise tailoring of lithium-ion transport of a halide SSE, Li 3 InCl 6 , including intragranular (within grains) but also intergranular (between grains) lithium-ion transport. Lithium-ion migration tailoring mechanism in crystals is developed by unexpected enhanced Li, In, and Cl vacancy populations and lower energy barrier for hopping. The lithium-ion transport tailoring mechanism between the grains is determined by the elimination of voids between grains and the formation of unexpected supersonic conducting grain boundaries, boosting the lithium dendrite suppression ability of SSE. Due to boosted lithium-ion conduction and dendrite-suppression ability, the all-solid-state lithium metal batteries coupled with Ni-rich LiNi 0.83 Co 0.12 Mn 0.05 O 2 cathodes and lithium metal anodes demonstrate breakthroughs in electrochemical performance by achieving extremely long cycling life at a high current density of 0.5 C (2000 cycles, 93.7% capacity retention). This concept of precise tailoring of lithium-ion transport provides a cost, time, and energy efficient solution to conquer the remaining challenges in all-solid-state lithium-metal batteries for fast developing electric vehicle markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Reductively Stable Electrolyte Realizes Deep Cycling Behavior in Anode‐free Sodium Batteries

For anode‐free sodium batteries to achieve practical consideration, highly reversible chemistries require exceptional ≥99.95% coulombic efficiencies that maintain over prolonged cycling periods. To do so, consumption of this severely limited sodium inventory must be restricted while metal nucleation processes that comprise the in situ formed metal anode are improved. Herein, we describe a fluorine‐free carborane electrolyte that satisfies these criteria by emphasizing reductive stability and weakly coordinating anion behavior as design principles. We find this approach promotes the development of a thin, robust SEI chemistry rich in both organic speciation and boron. The electrolyte described herein exhibits ideal metal nucleation behavior on one‐micron thin carbonaceous current collector surfaces and achieves a metal deposition/stripping efficiency near parity for 400 cycles. This novel anode chemistry is introduced to anode‐free full cell configurations where 87% of the initial discharge capacity is retained after 1000 cycles at 2.0 C. In conclusion, post‐test characterization of deep‐cycled anode‐free cells reveals suppressed capacity fade in these systems is attributed to the chemical stability of the carborane anion.

anode-free↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concentration‐dependent Cycling of Phenothiazine‐based Electrolytes in Nonaqueous Redox Flow Cells

Increasing redox-active species concentrations can improve viability for organic redox flow batteries by enabling higher energy densities, but the required concentrated solutions can become viscous and less conductive, leading to inefficient electrochemical cycling and low material utilization at higher current densities. To better understand these tradeoffs in a model system, we study a highly soluble and stable redox-active couple, N-(2-(2-methoxyethoxy)ethyl)phenothiazine (MEEPT), and its bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide radical cation salt (MEEPT-TFSI). We measure the physicochemical properties of electrolytes containing 0.2–1 M active species and connect these to symmetric cell cycling behavior, achieving robust cycling performance. Specifically, for a 1 M electrolyte concentration, we demonstrate 94% materials utilization, 89% capacity retention, and 99.8% average coulombic efficiency over 435 h (100 full cycles). This demonstration helps to establish potential for high-performing, concentrated nonaqueous electrolytes and highlights possible failure modes in such systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature-dependent Battery Performance of a Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 @MWCNT Cathode and In-situ Heat Generation on Cycling

Excellent structural stability, high operating voltage, and high capacity have made Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 a promising cathode material for sodium-ion batteries. However, high-temperature battery performances and heat generation measurements have not been systematically reported yet. Carbon-coated Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 @MWCNT (multi-walled carbon nanotube) samples are fabricated by a hydrothermal-assisted sol-gel method and the electrochemical performances are evaluated at three different temperatures (25, 45, and 55 °C). Furthermore, the well-crystallized Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 @MWCNT samples exhibit good cycling stability at both low and high temperatures; they deliver an initial discharge capacity of 120–125 mAhg -1 at a 1 C rate with a retention of 53 % capacity after 1,400 cycles with 99 % columbic efficiency. The half-cell delivers a capacity of 100 mAhg -1 even at a high rate of 10 C at room temperature. Furthermore, the Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 @MWCNT samples show good long-term durability; the capacity loss is an average of 0.05 % per cycle at a 1 C rate at 55 °C. Additionally, ionic diffusivity and charge transfer resistance are evaluated as functions of state of charge, and they explain the high electrochemical performance of the Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 @MWCNT samples. In-situ heat generation measurements reveal reversible results upon cycling owing to the high structural stability of the material. Excellent electrochemical performances are also demonstrated in the full-cell configuration with hard carbon as well as antimony Sb/C anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Off-design performance of an organic Rankine-vapor compression cooling cycle using R1234ze(E)

In this study, a 264 kW th organic Rankine-vapor compression cycle (ORVC) was experimentally tested over a range of conditions to quantify the individual impact of off-design external conditions. The ORVC was designed to recover waste heat at 91 °C, reject heat to a liquid condenser stream at 30 °C, and produce chilled water at 7 °C. Here, the condenser heat rejection temperature was varied from 16.6 °C to 32.6 °C, the chilled water delivery temperature was varied between 2.1 °C and 13.1 °C, and the heat input temperature was varied from 91 °C to 120 °C. As the condenser heat rejection temperature decreased, the coefficient of performance (COP) of the ORVC improved from 0.558 at 30 °C to 0.682 at 16.6 °C, despite a reduction in compressor isentropic efficiency. Although the chilled water temperature variation had almost no impact on the organic Rankine cycle performance, the compressor efficiency decreased when the delivery temperature was below 7 °C. At the highest chilled water temperature, 13.1 °C, the COP of the ORVC was 0.643. Compressor stall was noted when the condenser heat rejection temperature was greater than 32.6 °C and the chilled water delivery temperature was below 2.1 °C. Increasing the driving heat source inlet temperature improved the COP of the ORVC and the thermal efficiency of the organic Rankine power cycle, while decreasing the efficiency of the compressor and the COP of vapor compression cycle. In addition, the integrated part load value of the system was determined through experimentation to be 0.682, which provides a realistic estimate of real-world performance.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Tchebycheff-based multi-objective combined with a PSO–SQP dynamic real-time optimization framework for cycling energy systems

The aim in this work is to develop an optimization framework to address cycling of baseload energy systems due to the penetration of renewables into the grid. The developed strategy corresponds to a multi-objective and dynamic real-time optimization (MOO-DRTO) framework applied to a postcombustion MEA-based CO 2 capture process from a baseload coal-fired power plant under cycling conditions. A Tchebycheff-based method is used for the multi-objective optimization (MOO) component. Also, a hybrid approach consisting of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) is implemented for the first time in process systems engineering to solve the dynamic real-time optimization (DRTO) component. The objectives considered in the MOO-DRTO framework are economic and environmental. The proposed MOO-DRTO strategy is successfully implemented and 24-h optimal output trajectories for the carbon capture system under cycling are generated. Also, the optimal compromise is chosen from the Pareto front according to a set of selected weights for the objectives with minimal interaction between the framework and decision maker. The results indicated that the developed framework has potential to be extended to plant-wide optimization applications under cycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recyclability of reversible polymer networks over a Dozen reprocessing cycles

Reversible polymer networks capable of reversible reactions along their backbone provide a promising strategy for addressing waste management challenges associated with conventional thermoset products. However, reversible polymer networks cannot be recycled infinitely. Unavoidable side reactions eventually cause significant degradation of mechanical properties or loss of recyclability. This study aims to answer a simple yet critical question on reversible polymer network systems: how many reprocessing cycles can be achieved before profound mechanical degradation or a loss of recyclability? The recyclability of Diels–Alder (DA) network samples was evaluated by repeating consistent reprocessing cycles until they were no longer reprocessable. To enhance their recyclability, the chemical structure of the maleimide precursor was tailored to mitigating side reactions by maleimide homopolymerization. Remarkably, by employing a maleimide precursor with alkyl substitutions on its phenyl group, the DA network system attained 12 reprocessing cycles using injection molding at 160 °C without significant degradation of mechanical properties. However, the 13th reprocessing cycle did not succeed. Rheological analysis revealed the accumulation of non-reversible bonds within the network structure during repeated reprocessing, despite fairly consistent mechanical properties under operating conditions. This study demonstrates that the rational design of the maleimide precursor is an effective means to enhance the reprocessability of DA networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of ammonia with methanol, liquefied natural gas and conventional marine transportation fuels through life cycle cost and emissions analysis

This work evaluates ammonia as a potential marine fuel for a SUEZMAX tanker and compares it with methanol, liquefied natural gas, and conventional fuel oils. The motivation arises from the need to identify low-emission, cost-competitive fuel options that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The central hypothesis is that ammonia produced from renewable energy sources can achieve lower well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions with varying life cycle costs based on the region. Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis were performed for a thirty-year vessel lifetime on two representative trade routes: from Saudi Arabia to Japan and from Saudi Arabia to the Netherlands. Four ammonia production pathways were assessed: natural gas, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas pyrolysis, and renewable electricity–based synthesis. Results show that wind-based ammonia produced in Saudi Arabia achieved the lowest life cycle well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions, between 0.58 and 0.64 million metric tons, among all fuels when using regional grid process electricity. With renewable process electricity, ammonia produced from natural gas pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia showed comparable emissions of 0.37 to 0.44 million metric tons with wind-based ammonia of 0.37 to 0.43 million metric tons. Liquefied natural gas exhibited the lowest life cycle cost, between 402 and 412 million United States dollars, and the only negative carbon abatement cost, ranging from −277 to –322 United States dollars per metric ton of greenhouse gas, compared with high sulfur fuel oil. The findings indicate that renewable ammonia offers a promising long-term pathway for reducing shipping emissions, while liquefied natural gas remains the most cost-effective option in the near term.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extended cycle life implications of fast charging for lithium-ion battery cathode

Enabling extreme fast charging (XFC, =10–15 min charging) requires a comprehensive understanding of its implications. While lithium plating is a key bottleneck for the anode, the full extent of limitations for the cathode are not well-understood, particularly in extended-cycle settings with well-defined battery designs and conditions. This article presents cycle-life implications of XFC on cathodes at multiple length scales, combining electrochemical analyses, degradation modeling, and post-test characterizations. The comprehensive test matrix includes 41 well-defined gr/NMC pouch cells under varied fast-charge rates (1–9C) and state-of-charges cycled up to 1000 times. Cathode issues remain minimal in early cycling, but begin to accelerate in later life, when distinct cracking is found and identified as a fatigue mechanism. The bulk structure of cathodes remains intact, but distinct particle surface reconstruction is observed; however, this shows less pronounced effect on cathode aging than does cracking.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial cathode electrolyte interphase for improving high voltage cycling stability of thick electrode with Co-free 5 V spinel oxides

Spinel-type cathode LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) has intrigued the transportation industry due to its high operating voltage and total elimination of the expensive cobalt element. However, LNMO cathode with high mass loading (> 3 mAh/cm 2 in areal capacity) has suffered from excessive capacity degradation upon long cycling. Here, a robust Al 2 O 3 surface layer is introduced to the thick LNMO electrode via atomic layer deposition (ALD). The capacity retention in full cells with the graphite anode is improved from 46.3% to 75.3% after 300 cycles with cutoff voltage up to 4.85 V, while enabling average Coulombic efficiency of 99.9% during the cycling. The post-mortem analyses reveal that the Al 2 O 3 surface layer would convert to Al-O-F /Al-F species upon cycling, offering stable interphase to protect the cathode material. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the significance of surface modification enabling high voltage cathode for next-generation LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long cycle and calendar life of Si-based Li-ion batteries enabled by localized high-concentration electrolytes and their surprising water tolerance

Silicon-based anodes promise an increase in energy density for Li-ion batteries, yet they suffer from a poor calendar life. Researchers have posited that fluorinated lithium salt forms reactive side products that destroy the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), even without cycling. HF is one such reactive side product formed from trace water contamination in the electrolyte. Some electrolytes, such as localized high concentration electrolytes (LHCEs) may improve cell stability in highly reactive systems, such as Li metal and Si. In the present study, LHCEs containing 200-300 ppm of water retained up to 8% greater capacity (1200-1300 mAh/g Si) in calendar life tests over 200 days compared to dried electrolytes (< 20 ppm water). Calendar aging took place at 100% state of charge. Cells with 200-300 ppm water performed comparably to cells with 20 ppm water in cycle life tests (900-1000 mAh/g Si) . Even adding 1000 ppm water did not lead to rapid capacity fade in cells undergoing cycle life tests. Nano-FTIR spectroscopy revealed chemical and structural differences in the SEI for cells with 1000 ppm water compared to 200-300 ppm water. The SEI differences, including increased Li2O concentration, may have contributed to improved calendar life. This research reveals the capabilities of LHCEs to improve the calendar and cycle life of Si-based Li-ion batteries, despite the presence of a highly reactive contaminant.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering volume changes in Li-S solid-state battery components during cycling: Implication for advanced battery design

Here, in this work, we developed custom fixtures to investigate the mechanical and electrochemical behavior of all-solid-state lithium batteries during cycling under constant pressure and constant volume conditions. We successfully monitored vertical displacements during constant pressure cycling and pressure variations during constant volume cycling, allowing us decouple volume changes in the sulfur, Li 2 S cathodes, LixIn anode, and solid-state electrolyte. Scanning electron microscopy and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy confirmed that two structural changes occur during ASSLB cycling: (1) irreversible fractures in the active material particles, and (2) void formation within the electrode matrix. While the fractures in primary particles are permanent, void formation can be mitigated through stack pressure, which promotes particle rearrangement in the electrode matrix. Our findings emphasize the importance of stack pressure in maintaining the microscale integrity of all-solid-state lithium batteries, preventing void formation and enhance battery performance and durability.

Cell Design↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960–1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Wang, Qianfeng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗