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The functional elements of payload operations and support are discussed together with some of the features of the operational concept. The existence of clear and simple lines of responsibility and authority is an important factor in a simplification of the decision process. A high orbiter utilization rate is a key to the economic advantage of the reusable transportation system.
A method of classification of digitized multispectral images is developed and experimentally evaluated on actual earth resources data collected by aircraft and satellite. The method is designed to exploit the characteristic dependence between adjacent states of nature that is neglected by the more conventional simple-symmetric decision rule. Thus contextual information is incorporated into the classification scheme. The principle reason for doing this is to improve the accuracy of the classification. For general types of dependence this would generally require more computation per resolution element than the simple-symmetric classifier. But when the dependence occurs in the form of redundance, the elements can be classified collectively, in groups, therby reducing the number of classifications required.
The high-resolution wind profile of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System (HRAMPS) is the proposed replacement for the Jimsphere measurement system used to support NASA Shuttle launches from the Eastern Test Range (ETR). Samples of twenty-six ETR near simultaneous Jimsphere and HRAMPS wind profiles were obtained for Shuttle program HRAMPS certification studies. Shuttle systems engineering certification is to ensure that spacecraft and launch vehicle systems performance and safety evaluations for each launch (derived from flight simulations with Jimsphere wind profile data bases) retain their validity when HRAMPS profiles are used on day-of-launch (DOL) in trajectory and loads simulations to support the commit-to-launch decision. This paper describes a statistical analysis of the near simultaneous profiles. In principle the differences between a Jimsphere profile and an HRAMPS profile should be attributed to tracking technology (radar versus GPS tracking of a Jimsphere flight element) and the method for derivation of wind vectors from the raw tracking data. In reality, it is not technically feasible to track the same Jimsphere balloon with the two systems. The aluminized Mylar surface of the standard Jimsphere flight element facilitates radar tracking, but it interferes with HRAMPS during simultaneous tracking. Suspending a radar reflector from an HRAMPS flight element (Jimsphere without aluminized coating) does not produce satisfactory Jimsphere profiles because of intermittent radar returns. Thus, differences between the Jimsphere and HRAMPS profiles are also attributed to differences in the trajectories of separate flight elements. Because of small sample size and a test period limited to one winter season, test measurements during extreme high winds aloft could not have been expected and did not occur. It is during the highest winds that the largest differences between Jimsphere and HRAMPS would occur because the distance between flight elements would be larger. Jimsphere radar tracking noise increases as a function of balloon displacement downrange. The Jimsphere data processing compensates for tracking signal/noise degradation by increasing the smoothing interval. The Jimsphere wind profile effective resolution is a function of downrange distance and altitude, whereas the effective resolution of the HRAMPS should be independent of those variables. The procedure used for editing Jimsphere spikes in Shuttle DOL profiles was not implemented for the Jimsphere profile measurements during the AMPS field tests. For this analysis a code was developed that essentially mimics DOL Jimsphere spike editing. Jimsphere profiles have somewhat more noise in the wavelength range less than 200m defined as the noise floor. No differences between Jimsphere and HRAMPS wind profile pairs have been found that would support denial of HRAMPS certification for application in Shuttle DOL applications. The reliability of the HRAMPS system, which is an important certification issue, is not addressed in this study.
This viewgraph presentation regards one element of a larger project on the integration of NASA science models and data into the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Hurricane module for hurricane damage and loss risk assessment. HAZUS-MH is a decision support tool being developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It includes the Hurricane Module, which employs surface roughness maps made from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) maps to estimate coastal hurricane wind damage and loss. NLCD maps are produced and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. This presentation discusses an effort to improve upon current HAZUS surface roughness maps by employing ASTER multispectral classifications with QuickBird "ground reference" imagery.
NASA’s first Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) subproject successfully completed 19 days of flight test validation in January and February 2017 of an Interval Management (IM) avionics prototype and the procedures used to conduct IM arrival and approach operations. IM is one of the three elements integrated into NASA’s ATD-1 concept of operations with the subproject goal of improving aircraft efficiency and airport throughput during high-density arrival operations. The ATD-1 concept of operations combines advanced arrival scheduling, controller decision support tools, and interval management (IM) avionics to enable merging of multiple, time-based, efficient arrival streams. IM contributes to the operation by calculating speeds that enable an aircraft to precisely achieve a specific time or distance behind another aircraft. When precise spacing intervals can be calculated, achieved, and then maintained during high-density operations, aircraft efficiency should be improved by enabling the aircraft to remain closer to the optimum descent trajectory instead of using vectors and step-down altitudes, and airport throughput should be maintained or improved by each aircraft arriving at the runway threshold closer to the assigned spacing interval. This avionics development and flight test was conducted under a NASA contract by Boeing Research and Technology, with Boeing Commercial Aircraft, Honeywell, United Airlines, and Jeppesen as sub-contractors. The Honeywell built IM avionics were the first ever prototype built based on NASA requirements as well as developing and non-flight tested international IM standards, integrated into two test aircraft, and then flown in real-world conditions at the Grant County International Airport (KMWH). The IM prototype flown in the flight test used data from the Ownship and the assigned lead, or Target, aircraft to calculate the airspeed necessary for the Ownship to achieve the desired spacing. The flight test demonstrated that the IM avionics prototype generally met the IM requirement for spacing accuracy. However, the control laws implemented require further development to reduce the high IM speed command rate and the number of speed reversals observed during the test. Pilots assessed the IM procedure as acceptable, and issues requiring further attention were identified. In summary, the IM avionics prototype showed significant promise in contributing to the goals of improving aircraft efficiency and airport throughput. The flight test results also provided important data to the FAA and the working group developing the follow-on version of the international IM standards.
Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance x,ary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are (1) determining, what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major U.S. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimility with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider un-modelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.
Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance vary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are: (1) determining what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major u.s. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort-topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimality with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider unmodelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.
The NASA Constellation Program's Ares I-X rocket launched successfully on October 28, 2009 collecting valuable data and providing risk reduction for the Ares I project. The Ares I-X mission was formulated and implemented in less than four years commencing with the Exploration Systems Architecture Study in 2005. The test configuration was founded upon assets and processes from other rocket programs including Space Shuttle, Atlas, and Peacekeeper. For example, the test vehicle's propulsion element was a Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor. The Ares I-X rocket comprised a motor assembly, mass and outer mold line simulators of the Ares I Upper Stage, Orion Spacecraft and Launch Abort System, a roll control system, avionics, and other miscellaneous components. The vehicle was 327 feet tall and weighed approximately 1,800,000 pounds. During flight the rocket reached a maximum speed of Mach 4.8 and an altitude of 150,000 feet. The vehicle demonstrated staging at 130,000 feet, tested parachutes for recovery of the motor, and utilized approximately 900 sensors for data collection. Developing a new launch system and preparing for a safe flight presented many challenges. Specific challenges included designing a system to withstand the environments, manufacturing large structures, and re-qualifying heritage hardware. These and other challenges, if not mitigated, may have resulted in test cancellation. Ares I-X succeeded because the mission was founded on carefully derived objectives, led by decisive and flexible management, implemented by an exceptionally talented and dedicated workforce, and supported by a thorough independent review team. Other major success factors include the use of proven heritage hardware, a robust System Integration Laboratory, multi-NASA center and contractor team, concurrent operations, efficient vehicle assembly, effective risk management, and decentralized element development with a centralized control board. Ares I-X was a technically complex test that required creative thinking, risk taking, and a passion to succeed.
NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.
Publicly funded research has long played a role in the development of aeronautics, ranging from foundational research on airfoils to development of the air-traffic control system. Yet more than a century after the research and development of successful controlled, sustained, heavier-than-air flight vehicles, there are questions over the future of aeronautics research. The field of aeronautics is relatively mature, technological developments within it have become more evolutionary, and funding decisions are sometimes motivated by the continued pursuit of these evolutionary research tracks rather than by larger factors. These developments raise questions over whether public funding of aeronautics research continues to be appropriate or necessary and at what levels. Tightened federal budgets and increasing calls to address other public demands make these questions sharper still. To help it address the questions of appropriate directions for publicly funded aeronautics research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) asked the RAND Corporation to assess the elements required to develop a strategic view of aeronautics research opportunities; identify candidate aeronautic grand challenges, paradigms, and concepts; outline a framework for evaluating them; and exercise the framework as an example of how to use it. Accordingly, this research seeks to address these questions: What aeronautics research should be supported by the U.S. government? What compelling and desirable benefits drive government-supported research? How should the government--especially NASA--make decisions about which research to support? Advancing aeronautics involves broad policy and decisionmaking challenges. Decisions involve tradeoffs among competing perspectives, uncertainties, and informed judgment.
The Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) is a project under the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element managed by the Human Research Program (HRP). The vision for the EMSD is to utilize ISS as a test bed to show that several medical technologies needed for an exploration mission and medical informatics tools for managing evidence and decision making can be integrated into a single system and used by the on-orbit crew in an efficient and meaningful manner. Objectives: a) Reduce and even possibly eliminate the time required for on-orbit crew and ground personnel (which include Surgeon, Biomedical Engineer (BME) Flight Controller, and Medical Operations Data Specialist) to access and move medical data from one application to another. b) Demonstrate that the on-orbit crew has the ability to access medical data/information using an intuitive and crew-friendly software solution to assist/aid in the treatment of a medical condition. c) Develop a common data management framework and architecture that can be ubiquitously used to automate repetitive data collection, management, and communications tasks for all crew health and life sciences activities.
This thesis will evaluate a passively cooled cylindrical spectrometer array in lunar orbit characterizing the thermal response in order to provide context for decision-making to scientists and engineers. To provide perspective on thermal issues and controls of space science instruments, a background search of historical lunar missions is provided. Next, a trial science mission is designed and analyzed which brings together the elements of the background search, lunar orbit environment and passive cooling. Finally, the trial science mission analysis results are provided along with the conclusions drawn. Scintillators are materials that when struck by particle radiation, absorb the particle energy which is then reemitted as light in or near the visible range. Nuclear astrophysics utilizes scintillating materials for observation of high-energy photons which are generated by sources such as solar flares, supernovae and neutron stars. SPMs are paired with inorganic scintillators to detect the light emitted which is converted into electronic signals. The signals are captured and analyzed in order to map the number and location of the high-energy sources. The SPM is utilized as it has single photon sensitivity, low voltage requirements and a fast response. SPMs are also compact, relatively inexpensive and allow the usage of lower-cost scintillating materials within the spectrometer. These characteristics permit large-area arrays while lowering cost and power requirements. The ability of a spectrometer to record and identify the interaction of high-energy photons for scientific return is not a trivial matter. Background noise is generated when particles that have not originated from the desired distant source impact the spectrometer. Additionally, thermally induced electrical signals are randomly generated within the SPM even in the absence of light which is referred to as dark current. Overcoming these obstacles requires greater light emittance and energy resolution with reduced dark current. Strong scintillation photon emittance ensures that low energy impacts will produce enough visible photons to be detected by the SPM. Higher energy resolution will ensure that single photon impacts can be distinguished from others of similar wavelength and energy; reduced dark current decreases the generation of random signals not associated with a photon impact. Increasing efficiency in each of these properties in a spectrometer comprised of inorganic scintillators and SPMs requires low temperatures. Low temperature maintenance in a lunar environment presents many unique challenges of its own. Even with the accumulated successes of past missions, the lunar environment remains a thermal challenge for engineers. The lunar orbit thermal environment is driven by radiation from three sources, direct solar radiation, reflected solar radiation from the lunar surface (albedo) and lunar radiation (Clawson 2002). Direct solar radiation values are consistent with those seen in Earth orbit (1325 W/m2) (Clawson 2002). The percentage of solar radiation reflected from the moon is consistently very low with the moon's dark regolith covered surface absorbing nearly 90% of the incident light (Clawson 2002). Yet, it is this absorption that gives the lunar orbit environment one of its most difficult thermal attributes as the absorbed solar radiation is released from the lunar surface as infrared radiation (IR). IR is of a wavelength that is readily absorbed by surfaces designed to function as radiation emitters. It is practical to therefore "choose radiator locations and spacecraft attitude to minimize radiator views to the lunar surface, when possible...pointing the radiator towards the sun to some extent, to minimize its view to the lunar surface, is frequently preferable. (Clawson 2002)" Additionally, the amount of direct solar radiation, lunar IR and albedo an orbiting satellite receives varies from one side of the moon to the other as the moon blocks the sun from view. This environment produces large temperature variations in a satellite's instrumentation, control electronics and propulsion systems which must be understood to characterize operating temperature envelopes.
Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.
The analysis presented in this paper is conducted in the framework of the Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration Research and Simulation (OceanWATERS) project, currently under development at NASA Ames Research Center. OceanWATERS aims at designing a simulation environment which allows for testing autonomy of scientific lander missions to the icy moons of our solar system. Mainly focused on reproducing the end effector interaction with the inherent terrain, this paper introduces a novel discrete element method (DEM)-based approach to determine forces and torques acting on the lander’s scoop during the sample acquisition process. An accurate force feedback from the terrain on the scoop is required by fault-detection and autonomous decision-making algorithms to identify when the requested torque on the robotic arm’s joints exceeds the maximum available torque. Knowledge of the terrain force feedback significantly helps evaluating the arm’s links structural properties and properly selecting actuators for the joints. Models available in literature constitute a partial representation of the dynamics of the interaction. As an example, Balovnev derived an analytical expression of the vertical and horizontal force acting on a bucket while collecting a sample as a function of its geometry and velocity, soil parameters and reached depth. Although the model represents an adequate approximation of the two force components, it ignores the direction orthogonal to the scoop motion and neglects the torque. This work relies on DEM analysis to compensate for analytical models’ deficiencies and inaccuracies, i. e. provide force and torque 3D vectors, defined in the moving reference (body) frame attached to the scoop, at each instant of the sample collection process. Results from the first presented analysis relate to the specific OceanWATERS sampling strategy, which consists of collecting the sample through five consecutive passes with increasing depth, each pass following the same circularlinear- circular trajectory. Data is collected given a specific scoop design interacting with two types of bulk materials, which may characterize the surface of icy planetary bodies: snow and ice. Although specifically concerned with the OceanWATERS design, this first analysis provides the expected force trends for similar sampling strategies and allows to deduce phenomenological information about the general scooping process. In order to further instruct the community on the use of DEM tools as a solution to the sampling collection problem, two more analyses have been carried out, mainly focused on reducing the DEM computation time, which increases with a decrease in particle size. After running a set of identical simulations, where the only changing parameter is the size of the spherical particle, it is observed that the resulting force trajectories, starting from a given particle size, converge to the true trend. It is deducible that a further decrease in size yields negligible improvements in the accuracy, while it sensibly increases computation time. A final analysis aims at discussing limitations of approximating bulk material particles having a complex shape, e. g. ice fragments, with spheres, by comparing force trends resulting in the two cases for the same simulation scenario.
The author has identified the following significant results. The results of this investigation of ratioing simulated ERTS spectral bands and several non-ERTS bands (all collected by an airborne multispectral scanner) indicate that significant terrain information is available from band-ratio images. Ratio images, which are based on the relative spectral changes which occur from one band to another, are useful for enhancing differences and aiding the image interpreter in identifying and mapping the distribution of such terrain elements as seedling crops, all bare soil, organic soil, mineral soil, forest and woodlots, and marsh areas. In addition, the ratio technique may be useful for computer processing to obtain recognition images of large areas at lower costs than with statistical decision rules. The results of this study of ratio processing of aircraft MSS data will be useful for future processing and evaluation of ERTS-1 data for soil and landform studies. Additionally, the results of ratioing spectral bands other than those currently collected by ERTS-1 suggests that some other bands (particularly a thermal band) would be useful in future satellites.
Low cost access to space has eluded present launch system technologies. Our objective is to reduce the cost of putting a payload into space from $10,000 per pound to $1000 per pound. In July 1996, a cooperative agreement was initiated between the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works and NASA to help accomplish this goal. The X-33 is the first step in the process to make low cost space access a reality. The X-33 is a suborbital, hypersonic lifting body, proof of concept of a reusable launch vehicle. The X-33 flight test program will validate technologies such as a metallic thermal protection system, Linear Aerospike Engines, use of tanks and struts as fundamental structural elements, as well as quick turnaround time. Flight testing will begin in July 2000, with launches originating from Edwards Air Force Base and initial landings at Michael Army Airfield in Utah. Data collected from these flight tests will aid in the decision to build an economically viable single stage to orbit reusable launch vehicle. This paper will explore the technical challenges facing the X-33 Flight Test Team.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program is a customer driven, focused technology program that supports the NASA Strategic Plan and considers future commercial space business projections. The initial cycle of the Advanced Space Transportation Program implementation planning was conducted from December 1995 through February 1996 and represented increased NASA emphasis on broad base technology development with the goal of dramatic reductions in the cost of space transportation. The second planning cycle, conducted in January and February 1997, updated the program implementation plan based on changes in the external environment, increased maturity of advanced concept studies, and current technology assessments. The program has taken a business-like approach to technology development with a balanced portfolio of near, medium, and long-term strategic targets. Strategic targets are influenced by Earth science, space science, and exploration objectives as well as commercial space markets. Commercial space markets include those that would be enhanced by lower cost transportation as well as potential markets resulting in major increases in space business induced by reductions in transportation cost. The program plan addresses earth-to-orbit space launch, earth orbit operations and deep space systems. It also addresses all critical transportation system elements; including structures, thermal protection systems, propulsion, avionics, and operations. As these technologies are matured, integrated technology flight experiments such as the X-33 and X-34 flight demonstrator programs support near-term (one to five years) development or operational decisions. The Advanced Space Transportation Program and the flight demonstrator programs combine business planning, ground-based technology demonstrations and flight demonstrations that will permit industry and NASA to commit to revolutionary new space transportation systems beginning at the turn of the century and continuing far into the future.
The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.