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At least 325 records · Page 18

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗

The Solar Clock

The Sun is powered by a very stable source of fusion energy in its core that radiates that energy outward in a constant flow. Yet it has a cycle of magnetic dynamo activity whose strength and duration are variable. This variability, which affects the Earth's ‘space climate', points to temporal changes in the convective and diffusive transport of magnetic flux above the tachocline, where the flux is generated. The longest record we have of this variability is the time series of Sunspot Numbers (SSN). This record suggests that the interior of the Sun follows a clocklike magnetic flux production cycle with a length of close to 11.05 yr. The variations in sunspot cycle duration, as well as the sunspot number rise and fall times, their hemispheric asymmetries, and the maximum sunspot numbers of the individual cycles, are likely produced in the process of the magnetic flux transport. Helioseismology continues to shed more light on the convection zone variabilities, including the ‘torsional oscillations' that seem to have a special connection to the emerging strong magnetic fluxes that produce the sunspots. These new observations may eventually lead to an explanation for the surprisingly good correlation between the rate of sunspot appearance and the maximum sunspot number, and to a better understanding of the relationship between the solar dynamo and the sunspot number cycle. Better understanding of the polar regions awaits long-term monitoring with a polar solar mission. Better predictions of nearterm space weather could be obtained from a permanent L5 monitor.

C T Russell↗

Inner Magnetospheric Physics

The inner magnetosphere extends from just above the topside ionosphere to approximately 8 RE geocentric distance. Magnetospheric physics is a young science that only started to be recognized as a region with the space observations by Explorer 1 in 1958. The region is mostly populated by ionized gas or plasma from Earth’s ionosphere. Plasma populations are differentiated by their energies primarily. From the least energetic to most are the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts, extending from about 1 eV to 10 MeV in energy and from 1,000s cm-3 down to a few particles per cubic centimeter and less, respectively. The solar wind and solar erupted coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arriving and interacting with Earth’s magnetic field creates a dynamo effect that drives million ampere currents along magnetic field lines that close through the ionosphere. The solar wind dynamo also creates a 100s kV electric field across the magnetosphere that drives convective motion of the plasma within it. The solar wind driven currents compress Earth’s magnetic field on the sunward side and greatly extents the field on the nightside to form the magnetotail. The energy stored in the magnetotail is impulsively released when magnetic field lines there merge, releasing energy into the plasma trapped by the magnetic field. Those plasma become the ring current that loses plasma into the atmosphere to produce the aurora and at the same time ring current plasma can be further energized by wave-particle interactions to become the radiation belts. The presentation will review these topics and a few of the underlying physical processes that are involved in this highly coupled planetary system.

inner magnetosphere↗

Earth's magnetic field

Dipole field, magnetosphere, quiet day geomagnetic variations, dynamo theory for ionosphere origin, and other topics related to earth magnetic field

MAGNETOSPHERE↗

Clustering of Emerging Flux

Observations show that newly emerging flux tends to appear on the Solar surface at sites where there is flux already. This results in clustering of solar activity. Standard dynamo theories do not predict this effect.

Flux Cluster dynamo↗

Geostrophic to magnetically-damped turbulence in liquid metal rotating magnetoconvection

Understanding planetary core convection dynamics requires the study of convective flows in which the Coriolis and Lorentz forces attain a leading-order, so-called magnetostrophic balance. Experimental investigations of rotating magnetoconvection (RMC) in the magnetostrophic regime are therefore essential to broadly characterize the properties of local-scale planetary core flow. Toward this end, we present here the first thermovelocimetric measurements of magnetostrophic, liquid metal convection, which are made using liquid gallium as the working fluid, at moderate rotation rates (Ekman numbers 10 -4 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 -5 ) and in the presence of dynamically strong magnetic fields (Elsasser number Λ = 1). Complementary rotating convection (RC) experiments are performed at the same rotation rates to serve as reference cases. Our RMC velocity measurements adequately follow a geostrophic turbulent scaling for cases in which local-scale convective inertial forces exceed the Lorentz forces in the fluid bulk. In cases where Lorentz forces exceed local-scale inertia (local or convective interaction parameter N ℓ or N C ≳ 3), the root-mean-square RMC velocities are magnetically damped, yielding values below the geostrophic turbulent RC scaling prediction. An enhancement in heat transfer is observed, which we attribute to the increased coherence of vertically aligned magnetostrophic convective flow. Finally, our results and comparisons to dynamo simulations suggest that the system is in the strong-field regime, where convection-scale flows are magnetically damped with N C ≳ 3).

Convective turbulence↗

Direct Simulations of H–He Mixtures at Planetary Interior Conditions: Demixing, Insulator–Metal Transition and Miscibility Boundaries

Accurate knowledge of the electrical and thermal conductivities and structural properties of hydrogen–helium mixtures under thermodynamic conditions within and beyond the immiscibility range is very important to predict the thermal evolution and internal structure of gas giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn. Here, we propose a novel method to determine the immiscibility boundary accurately without the need for free energy calculations, while providing consistent insights into structural and transport properties of mixtures. We show with direct large-scale ab initio simulations that the insulator–metal transition (IMT) of the hydrogen subsystem is strongly affected by an admixture with a small fraction of helium and occurs at temperatures significantly higher than those of pure hydrogen. At pressures below 150 GPa, the IMT boundary is not related anymore to the H 2 subsystem dissociation, the system remains insulating even after the full dissociation of H 2 molecules and its transition to an H–He mixture. The offset of the IMT in the H–He mixture relative to the dissociation region in the hydrogen subsystem and the significant reduction of static electrical and thermal conductivity by a factor between two and a few thousand relative to pure hydrogen found in mixtures have consequences for Jupiter and Saturn’s thermal evolution, internal structure, and dynamo action, affecting a large fraction of the interior of both planets.

Helium↗

High Pressure Melting Curve of Fe‐Si: Implication for the Thermal Properties in Mercury's Core

The motion of liquid iron (Fe) alloy materials in the outer core drives the dynamo, which generates Mercury's magnetic field. The assessment of core models requires laboratory measurements of the melting temperature of Fe alloys at high pressure. Here, we experimentally determined the melting curve of Fe9wt%Si and Fe17wt%Si up to 17 GPa using in situ and ex situ measurements of intermetallic fast diffusion that serves as the melting criterion in a large-volume press. Our determined melting slopes are comparable with previous studies up to about 17 GPa. However, when extrapolated, our melting slopes significantly deviate from previous studies at higher pressures. For Mercury's core with a model composition of Fe9wt%Si, the melting temperature-depth profile determined in our study is lower by ∼150–250 K when compared with theoretical calculations. Using the new melting curve of Fe9wt%Si and the electrical resistivity values from a previous study of Fe8.5wt%Si, we estimate that the electronic thermal conductivity of liquid Fe9wt%Si is 30 Wm −1 K −1 at the Mercury's CMB pressure of 5 GPa and 37 Wm −1 K −1 at an assumed ICB of 21 GPa, corresponding to heat flux values of 23 mWm −2 and 32 mWm −2 , respectively. These values provide new constraints on the core models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Abstract Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hints of primordial magnetic fields at recombination and implications for the Hubble tension

Primordial Magnetic Fields (PMFs), long studied as relics of the early Universe, accelerate recombination and have been proposed as a way to relieve the Hubble tension. However, previous studies relied on simplified toy models. Here, in this study, we use recent evaluations of recombination with PMFs, incorporating full magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations and detailed Lyman-alpha radiative transfer, to test PMF-enhanced recombination (bΛCDM) against observational data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), and Type Ia supernovae (SN). Focusing on non-helical PMFs with a Batchelor spectrum, we find a preference for presentday total field strengths of approximately 5-10 pico-Gauss. Depending on the dataset combination, this preference ranges from mild (∼ 1.8σ with Planck + DESI) to moderate (∼ 3σ with Planck + DESI + SH0ES-calibrated SN) significance. The bΛCDM has Planck + DESI χ 2 values equal to or better than ΛCDM while predicting a higher Hubble constant. Future high-resolution CMB temperature and polarization measurements will be crucial for confirming or further constraining PMFs at recombination. Field strengths of 5-10 pico-Gauss align closely with those required for cluster magnetic fields to originate entirely from primordial sources, without the need for additional dynamo amplification.

Jedamzik, Karsten [Centre National de la Recherche↗

The formation and structure of iron-dominated planetesimals

Metal-rich asteroids and iron meteorites are considered core remnants of differentiated planetesimals and/or products of oxygen-depleted accretion. Investigating the origins of iron-rich planetesimals could provide key insights into planet formation mechanisms. Using differentiation models, we evaluate the interior structure and composition of representative-sized planetesimals (~200 km diameter), while varying oxygen fugacity and initial bulk meteoritic composition. Under the oxygen-poor conditions that likely existed early in the inner regions of the Solar System and other protoplanetary disks, core fractions remain relatively consistent across a range of bulk compositions (CI, H, EH, and CBa). Some of these cores could incorporate significant amounts of silicon (10–30 weight%) and explain the metal fractions of Fe-rich bodies in the absence of mantle stripping. Conversely, planetesimals forming under more oxidizing conditions, such as beyond snow lines, could exhibit smaller cores, enriched in carbon, sulfur (>1 wt%), and oxides. Sulfur-rich cores, like those formed from EH and H bulk compositions, could remain partly molten, sustain dynamos, and even drive sulfur-rich volcanism. Additionally, bodies with high carbon contents, such as CI compositions, can form graphitic outer layers. These variations highlight the importance of initial formation conditions in shaping planetesimal structures. Future missions, such as NASA’s Psyche mission, offer an opportunity to measure the relative abundances of key elements (Fe, Ni, Si, and S) necessary to distinguish among formation scenarios and structure models for Fe-rich and reduced planetesimals.

meteorites↗

Magnetized neutral 2SC color superconductivity and possible origin of the inner magnetic field of magnetars

In this paper, the neutral 2SC phase of color superconductivity is investigated in the presence of a magnetic field and for diquark coupling constants and baryonic densities that are expected to characterize neutron stars. Specifically, the behavior of the charged gluons Meissner masses is investigated in the parameter region of interest, taking into account, in addition, the contribution of a rotated magnetic field. It is found that up to moderately high diquark coupling constants the mentioned Meissner masses become tachyonic independently of the applied magnetic-field amplitude, hence signalizing the chromomagnetic instability of this phase. To remove the instability, the restructuring of the system ground state is proposed, which now will be formed by vortices of the rotated charged gluons. These vortices boost the applied magnetic field, having the most significant increase for relatively low applied magnetic fields. Finally, considering that with the stellar rotational frequency observed for magnetars a field of the order of 10 8 G can be generated by dynamo effect, we show that by the boosting effect just described the field can be amplified to 10 17 G that is in the range of inner core fields expected for magnetars. Thus, we conclude that the described mechanism could be the one responsible for the large fields characterizing magnetars if the cores of these compact objects are formed by neutral 2SC matter. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Yuan, Shuai↗

Dark magnetohydrodynamics: Black hole accretion in superradiant dark photon clouds

Black holes threaded by massive vector fields can be subject to a superradiant instability, growing a cloud of massive vector particles around it. In this work, we consider what happens if such a dark matter candidate field mimicking a dark photon interacts with an accretion flow onto the black hole. By including a kinetic mixing term with the standard model photon, we extend the commonly used equations of general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics to a dark photon constituent. The coupling to the dark photon then appears as an effective dynamo term together with a dark Lorentz force acting on the accreting matter. We numerically study the interactions between the superradiant dark photon cloud and the inner accretion flow by solving the coupled system in full numerical relativity. By parameterically varying the mixing parameter between the dark and standard model sector, we provide a first investigation of how the accretion flow could be modified. In conclusion, depending on the coupling strength, our solutions exhibit increased wind launching, as well as oscillation modes in the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Structure Formation Through Magnetohydrodynamical Instabilities in Primordial Disks

The shear flow instabilities under the presence of magnetic fields in the primordial disk can greatly facilitate the formation of density structures that serve as seeds prior to the onset of the gravitational Jeans instability. We evaluate the effects of the Parker, magnetorotational and kinematic dynamo instabilities by comparing the properties of these instabilities. We calculate the mass spectra of coagulated density structures by the above mechanism in the radial direction for an axisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) torus equilibrium and power density profile models. Our local three-dimensional MHD simulation indicates that the coupling of the Parker and magnetorotational instability creates spiral arms and gas blobs in an accretion disk, reinforcing the theory and model. Such a mechanism for the early structure formation may be tested in a laboratory. The recent progress in experiments involving shear flows in rotating tokamak, field reversed configuration (FRC) and laser plasmas may become a key element to advance in nonlinear studies.

Noguchi, Koichi↗

Diagnostics of Magnetohydrodynamic Modes in the Interstellar Medium through Synchrotron Polarization Statistics

One of the biggest challenges in understanding magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is identifying the plasma mode components from observational data. Previous studies on synchrotron polarization from the interstellar medium (ISM) suggest that the dominant MHD modes can be identified via statistics of Stokes parameters, which would be crucial for studying various ISM processes such as the scattering and acceleration of cosmic rays, star formation, and dynamo. In this paper, we present a numerical study of the synchrotron polarization analysis (SPA) method through systematic investigation of the statistical properties of the Stokes parameters. We derive the theoretical basis for our method from the fundamental statistics of MHD turbulence, recognizing that the projection of the MHD modes allows us to identify the modes dominating the energy fraction from synchrotron observations. Based on the discovery, we revise the SPA method using synthetic synchrotron polarization observations obtained from 3D ideal MHD simulations with a wide range of plasma parameters and driving mechanisms, and present a modified recipe for mode identification. We propose a classification criterion based on a new SPA+ fitting procedure, which allows us to distinguish between Alfvén mode and compressible/slow mode dominated turbulence. We further propose a new method to identify fast modes by analyzing the asymmetry of the SPA+ signature and establish a new asymmetry parameter to detect the presence of fast mode turbulence. Additionally, we confirm through numerical tests that the identification of the compressible and fast modes is not affected by Faraday rotation in both the emitting plasma and the foreground.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗