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NASA NTRS2008

The South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) 5-Year Retrospective Atmospheric Forcing Datasets

The definition and derivation of a 5-year, 0.125deg, 3-hourly atmospheric forcing dataset for the South America continent is described which is appropriate for use in a Land Data Assimilation System and which, because of the limited surface observational networks available in this region, uses remotely sensed data merged with surface observations as the basis for the precipitation and downward shortwave radiation fields. The quality of this data set is evaluated against available surface observations. There are regional difference in the biases for all variables in the dataset, with biases in precipitation of the order 0-1 mm/day and RMSE of 5-15 mm/day, biases in surface solar radiation of the order 10 W/sq m and RMSE of 20 W/sq m, positive biases in temperature typically between 0 and 4 K, depending on region, and positive biases in specific humidity around 2-3 g/Kg in tropical regions and negative biases around 1-2 g/Kg further south.

deGoncalves, Luis Gustavo G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Experiments with a Data Assimilation System to Diagnose AGCM Hindcasts of the MJO

The objectives of this study are to (1) develop a better understanding of how observations constrain/impact the MJO in a data assimilation system with the aim of improving the representation of the MJO, and (2) to carry out AGCM predictability/forecast experiments under various observational constraints to assess model errors and sensitivity to initial conditions. Our current focus is on the second objective.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Contributions of irrigation modeling, soil moisture and snow data assimilation to high-resolution water budget estimates over the Po basin: progress towards digital replicas

High-resolution water budget estimates benefit from modeling of human water management and satellite data assimilation (DA) in river basins with a large human footprint. Utilizing the Noah-MP land surface model with dynamic vegetation growth and river routing, in combination with an irrigation module, Sentinel-1 backscatter and snow depth retrievals, we produce a set of 0.7-km2 water budget estimates of the Po river basin (Italy) for 2015–2023. The results demonstrate that irrigation modeling improves the seasonal soil moisture variation and summer streamflow at all gauges in the valley after withdrawal of irrigation water from the streamflow in postprocessing (12% error reduction relative to observed low summer streamflow), even if the basin-wide irrigation amount is underestimated. Sentinel-1 backscatter DA for soil moisture updating strongly interacts with irrigation modeling: when both are activated, the soil moisture updates are limited, and the simulated irrigation amounts are reduced. Backscatter DA systematically reduces soil moisture in the spring, which improves downstream spring streamflow. Assimilating Sentinel-1 snow depth retrievals over the surrounding Alps and Apennines further improves spring streamflow in a complementary way (2% error reduction relative to observed high spring streamflow). Despite the seasonal improvements, irrigation modeling and Sentinel-1 backscatter DA cannot significantly improve short-term or interannual variations in soil moisture, irrigation modeling causes a systematically prolonged high vegetation productivity, and snow depth DA only impacts the deep snowpacks. This study helps advancing the design of digital water budget replicas for river basins.

Gabrielle J M De Lannoy↗
NASA NTRS2022

Flash Drought Onset and Development Mechanisms Captured With Soil Moisture and Vegetation Data Assimilation

Flash droughts evolve and intensify rapidly under the influence of anomalous atmospheric conditions. In this study, we investigate the role of assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and vegetation properties in capturing the evolution and impacts of two flash droughts in the Northern Great Plains. We find that during 2016 drought triggered by anomalously high temperatures and excessive evaporative demands, multivariate data assimilation (DA) of MODIS-derived leaf area index (LAI) and Soil Moisture Active Passive SM within Noah-Multiparameterization model helps capture elevated transpiration at onset. Assimilation of LAI particularly helped model the resulting rapid decline in SM during onset with as high as 10.0% steeper rate of decline compared to the simulation without any assimilation. Modeled-SM anomalies exhibit a 7.5% and 11.7% increase in similarity with Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) data and U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps, respectively. In contrast, during 2017 flash drought driven by record-low precipitation during summers, SM assimilation resulted in largest rates of decline in rootzone SM, as large as 48.4% compared to results from no assimilation. Multivariate DA of SM and LAI results in 6.7% and 14.3% higher spatial similarity with ESI and USDM, respectively, and is necessary to model rapid intensification caused by anomalous precipitation deficits. This study elucidates the need to incorporate multiple observational constraints from remote sensing to effectively capture rapid onset rates, intensification, and severity of flash drought following different propagation mechanisms. This is fundamental for drought early detection to provide a wider window of response and implement efficient mitigation strategies.

Shahryar K. Ahmad↗
NASA NTRS2002

Regional Climate Simulation and Data Assimilation with Variable-Resolution GCMs

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolution over one or multiple areas of interest represents a viable new approach to regional climateklimate change and data assimilation studies and applications. The multiple areas of interest, at least one within each global quadrant, include the major global mountains and major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. They also can include the polar domains, and the European and African regions. The SG-approach provides an efficient regional downscaling to mesoscales, and it is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of globaYlarge- and regionallmeso- scales while preserving the high quality of global circulation. Basically, the SG-GCM simulations are no different from those of the traditional uniform-grid GCM simulations besides using a variable-resolution grid. Several existing SG-GCMs developed by major centers and groups are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Data Assimilation as a Tool for Developing a Mars International Reference Atmosphere

A new paradigm for a Mars International Reference Atmosphere is proposed. In general, as is certainly now the case for Mars, there are sufficient observational data to specify what the full atmospheric state was under a variety of circumstances (season, dustiness, etc.). There are also general circulation models capable of deter- mining the evolution of these states. If these capabilities are combined-using data assimilation techniques-the resulting analyzed states can be probed to answer a wide variety of questions, whether posed by scientists, mission planners, or others. This system would fulfill all the purposes of an international reference atmosphere and would make the scientific results of exploration missions readily available to the community. Preliminary work on a website that would incorporate this functionality has begun.

Houben, Howard↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Satellite Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation on GEOS Atmospheric Analysis and Forecasts in Tropics

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a system to assimilate all-sky microwave radiance data in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). The system provides additional constraints on the analysis process near the storm regions and adjusts the geophysical parameters such as precipitation, cloud, moisture, surface pressure, and wind by combining information from microwave radiance measurements and model forecasts in an optimal manner. The system proved that assimilating the all-sky microwave radiance data improve the GEOS atmospheric analyses and forecasts. This all-sky data framework has been included in the GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system and currently assimilating all-sky GMI data in real-time for GEOS global analysis and forecast production at the GMAO. This presentation describes the methodologies to assimilate cloud- and precipitation-affected microwave radiances in GEOS data assimilation system based on hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4D-EnVar) configuration. In the current operational GEOS-FP system, the addition of all-sky GMI radiances has the largest impact in the Tropics. Specific humidity is significantly improved in the short term (0-72 hours) forecasts. Similar improvements are seen in the Tropical and lower tropospheric temperature and winds. More detailed results on all-sky microwave radiance data impact on GEOS analysis and forecasts are discussed in this presentation.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2008

Data Assimilation Experiments using Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AlRS data. Version 5 contains accurate case-by-case error estimates for most derived products, which are also used for quality control. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AlRS quality controlled temperature profiles using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system, consisting of the NCEP GSI analysis coupled with the NASA FVGCM. Assimilation of quality controlled temperature profiles resulted in significantly improved forecast skill in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere Extra-Tropics, compared to that obtained from analyses obtained when all data used operationally by NCEP except for AlRS data is assimilated. Experiments using different Quality Control thresholds for assimilation of AlRS temperature retrievals showed that a medium quality control threshold performed better than a tighter threshold, which provided better overall sounding accuracy; or a looser threshold, which provided better spatial coverage of accepted soundings. We are conducting more experiments to further optimize this balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy from the data assimilation perspective. In all cases, temperature soundings were assimilated well below cloud level in partially cloudy cases. The positive impact of assimilating AlRS derived atmospheric temperatures all but vanished when only AIRS stratospheric temperatures were assimilated. Forecast skill resulting from assimilation of AlRS radiances uncontaminated by clouds, instead of AlRS temperature soundings, was only slightly better than that resulting from assimilation of only stratospheric AlRS temperatures. This reduction in forecast skill is most likely the result of significant loss of tropospheric information when only AIRS radiances unaffected by clouds are used in the data assimilation process.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reply [to: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System]

This article is a Reply to a Comment by Scott Braun on a previously published article by O. Reale, K.-M. Lau, and E. Brin: "Atlantic tropical cyclogenetic processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 global data assimilation and forecast system", by Reale, Lau and Brin, hereafter referred to as RA09. RA09 investigated the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (MAMMA). The wave was chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. Results showed: a) very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara; b) a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) in the non-developing case. RA09A suggested that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis, and also indicated that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL Braun (2010) questions those results attributing the wave dissipation to midlatitude air. The core discussion is on a dry filament preceding the wave, on the presence of dust, and on the origin of the air contained in this dry filament. In the 'Reply', higher resolution analyses than the ones used by Braun, taken at almost coincident times with Aqua and Terra passes, are shown, to emphasize how the channel of dry air associated with W1 is indeed rich in dust. Backtrajectories on a higher resolution grid are also performed, leading to results drastically different from Braun (2010), and in particularly showing that there is a clear contribution of Saharan air. Finally, the 'Reply' presents evidence on that analyses at a horizontal resolution of one degree are inadequate to investigate such feature.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2002

Using Kalman Filter Chemical Data Assimilation to Study Ozone Catalytic Loss Cycles in January 1992

This paper presents for the first time a global study of the ozone catalytic destruction cycles operating in the stratosphere using a stratospheric analyses for January 1992. The chemical analyses were produced using a Kalman filter data assimilation system. Because a major component of the variability of trace gases is due to the atmospheric motions the analyses have been cast in a flow-tracking coordinate system that moves with the large scale flow pattern. Particular attention is paid to the kinetic aspects of these cycles such as the rate limiting step and chain length. Although it is an important kinetic parameter, the chain length of the various cycles is seldom considered when the various catalytic cycles are discussed. This survey highlights that in the low stratosphere the cycles involving HO2 and halogens (notably bromine) are particularly important. In approximate order of effectiveness the most important ozone loss cycles in the polar lower stratosphere are the BrO/ClO, HO2/BrO, and OH/HO2 cycles. The ClO/ClO cycle clearly delineates the regions of chlorine activation. The chain length of the HO2/ClO, OH/HO2, Br/BrO, and ClO/NO2, clearly delineate the vortex edge region. The chain length of the BrO/NO2 and Cl/NO2 cycles highlight the regions of chemical processing outside the vortex where streamers of chemically processed air are stripped-off and transported away from the vortex. This is also true in the very low stratosphere for the Cl/ClO and BrO/ClO cycles.

Lary, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Retrospective Data Assimilation for GEOS-4

The NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System 3 (GEOS-3) has recently been replaced operationally by GEOS-4. One of the major components of the new system is the finite-volume general circulation model (GCM) of Lin and Rood. Updating the GEOS-3 retrospective data assimilation system of Zhu et al. to GEOS-4 requires two main steps: (i) developing the adjoint of the finite-volume GCM; and (ii) developing the adjoint of the procedures interfacing the GCM with the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System. These required adjoints are being developed automatically through the use of the Transformation of Algorithms in Fortran compiler of Giering and Kaminski. In this presentation we discuss the current status of development and plans for the near future as well as show preliminary results.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS1999

Stratospheric Tides and Data Assimilation

In the upper stratosphere, the atmosphere exhibits significant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal variations, with typical amplitude of about 2K in mid-latitudes. In this paper we examine how well the tidal variations in temperature are represented by the Goddard Geodesic Earth Orbiting Satellite (GEOS-2) data assimilation system. We show that the GEOS-2 atmospheric model is quite successful at simulating the tidal temperature variations. However, the assimilation of satellite temperature soundings significantly damps the simulated tides. The reason is because the tides are not well represented by the satellite retrievals used by the assimilation system (which have a typical tidal amplitude of around 1K). As a result of this study, we suggest improvements that should be made to the treatment of satellite soundings by the assimilation system.

Swinbank, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Satellite Altimetry, Ocean Circulation, and Data Assimilation

Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗
NASA NTRS2017

Estimating the Distribution of Colored Dissolved Organic Matter During the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment Using Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

We diagnosed the effect of various physical processes on the distribution of mixed-layer colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and a sulfur hexauoride (SF6) tracer during the Southern Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment (SO GasEx). The biochemical upper ocean state estimate uses in situ and satellite biochemical and physical data in the study region, including CDOM (absorption coefcient and spectral slope), SF6, hydrography, and sea level anomaly. Modules for photobleaching of CDOM and surface transport of SF6 were coupled with an ocean circulation model for this purpose. The observed spatial and temporal variations in CDOM were captured by the state estimate without including any new biological source term for CDOM, assuming it to be negligible over the 26 days of the state estimate. Thermocline entrainment and photobleaching acted to diminish the mixed-layer CDOM with time scales of 18 and 16 days, respectively. Lateral advection of CDOM played a dominant role and increased the mixed-layer CDOM with a time scale of 12 days, whereas lateral diffusion of CDOM was negligible. A Lagrangian view on the CDOM variability was demonstrated by using the SF6 as a weighting function to integrate the CDOM elds. This and similar data assimilation methods can be used to provide reasonable estimates of optical properties, and other physical parameters over the short-term duration of a research cruise, and help in the tracking of tracer releases in large-scale oceanographic experiments, and in oceanographic process studies.

Del Castillo, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is being run to produce a set of high-quality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with denser satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same Authors, the quality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 5-day high resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results show that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) is present in the non-developing case. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) show that aerosol optical thickness is higher in the non-developing case. Altogether, results suggest that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression which has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. These effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions. Global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes During SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a nondeveloping and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African. Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because they both interact heavily with Saharan air. A glottal data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System. version 5 (GEOS-5), is being run to produce a set of high-9 uality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with additional satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same authors, the duality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 five-day high-resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results indicate that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses, even at great distances from their source over the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole in the vertiieat (warm above, cool below) is present in the nondeveloping case. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spoctroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites shows that aerosol optical thickness, indicative of more dust as opposed to other factors, is higher in the nondeveloping case. Altogether, results suggest that the radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 km can capture the large-scale transport and the tine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression that has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. Thcse effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions, therefore global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold necessary to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective

Reale, Oreste↗