Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Motter, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Overview of NASA Lewis Research Center free-piston Stirling engine technology activities applicable to space power systems

Free piston Stirling technology is applicable for both solar and nuclear powered systems. As such, the Lewis Research Center serves as the project office to manage the newly initiated SP-100 Advanced Technology Program. This five year program provides the technology push for providing significant component and subsystem options for increased efficiency, reliability and survivability, and power output growth at reduced specific mass. One of the major elements of the program is the development of advanced power conversion concepts of which the Stirling cycle is a viable candidate. Under this program the research findings of the 25 kWe opposed piston Space Power Demonstrator Engine (SPDE) are presented. Included in the SPDE discussions are initial differences between predicted and experimental power outputs and power output influenced by variations in regenerators. Projections are made for future space power requirements over the next few decades. And a cursory comparison is presented showing the mass benefits that a Stirling system has over a Brayton system for the same peak temperature and output power.

Slaby, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Utilizing Earth Observations for Societal Issues

Over the last four decades a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such as the US, European Community, Japan, China, Russia, India has and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching the public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as water resources and availability, energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, air quality and public health, which can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This presentation discusses a process to transition Earth science data and products for societal needs including NASA's experience in achieving such objectives. It is important to mention that there are many challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a program of record of inland water quality: Exploiting present and heritage multispectral sensors for maximum information extraction

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This research exploits recent advancements in bio-optical modeling, cloud computing, and machine learning to enhance our capacity to leverage present and heritage satellite data. Recent research suggests that sensors with low spectral resolution, such as Sentinel 2 and Landsat missions, contain enough hidden spectral variation which can be exploited using data-driven approaches. The availability of three decades of archival imagery will open doors to discover global trends of eutrophication and increased cyanobacteria dominance and provide valuable insight to the development of predictive methodologies. Preliminary efforts in synthetic emulation of global natural inland waters will be discussed and contextualized against satellite radiometric measurement uncertainty, satellite data product uncertainties and causal signal ambiguity over the visible wavelength range, supported by high quality field and image data for selected inland aquatic sites. Insights on water quality estimation via data-driven machine learning models versus matrix inversions will be discussed, and how we can exploit spectral-spatial relationships in high spatial resolution data. A cross-sensor synergistic approach with detailed uncertainty analysis based on optical water types, will allow for unprecedented global snapshots of fine scale ecological dynamics of inland waters.

Inland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Material Response Analysis of PICA-NuSil at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System

Phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) is a thermal protection system (TPS) that gained heritage during the Stardust mission and is the baseline TPS material for expeditions to Mars (e.g., Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020).1 PICA is friable; therefore, a polysiloxane resin (NuSil CV-1144-0) is deposited onto the surface of flight hardware before assembly, test, and launch operations (ATLO) to mitigate particle shedding. Furthermore, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and Mars 2020 heatshields were instrumented with an array of thermocouple plugs (MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs or MISP) designed to measure the in-depth thermal response of PICA during flight. Post-flight analysis of MISP data suggests that recession was lower than predicted, and NuSil is suspected as a reasonable cause. NuSil primarily consists of a copolymer blend of dimethyl and diphenyl-substituted polysiloxane resin. Four decades of research in the field of polymer-derived ceramics demonstrate that polysiloxane resins form oxidation-resistant silicon oxycarbide materials at pyrolysis temperatures as low as 800 °C. -2 Furthermore, silicon oxycarbide materials exhibit excellent thermal stability at relatively high-temperatures (< 1200 °C) but eventually decompose via carbothermal reduction. -3 Therefore, it is reasonable to suggest that NuSil forms an oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating on the TPS surface and influences the material response during atmospheric entry. Evidence for this notion was observed during prior arc-jet testing at both the Aerodynamic Heating Facility (AHF) and the Panel Test Facility (PTF) at the NASA Ames Research Center. Articles of PICA were subjected to testing in airflow, and a temperature discontinuity was recorded at the surface of coupons coated with NuSil. A glassy coating was observed to form at the surface in shear flow configurations (wedge and panel) under moderate heat fluxes. Furthermore, state-of-the-art material response models have yet to account for the underlying physics and chemistry of the temperature discontinuity. To this end, a pathfinder test campaign was executed at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) to enhance the fundamental understanding of PICA-NuSil ablation phenomena and provide a preliminary data set to aid in the development of material response models.

PICA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

James Webb Space Telescope Navigation Optimization Challenges

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a NASA flagship mission launched on December 25, 2021. The early orbit phase was highlighted by three midcourse correction burns that were performed to maneuver the vehicle into a libration orbit at the second Sun-Earth-Moon (SEM) libration point (L2). During the coast to L2, the vehicle’s primary observatory and sunshield were deployed. Once the tennis-court-sized sunshield was unfurled and tensioned into place, the large area exposed to solar radiation pressure (SRP) dictated that the SRP force model would need to account for the vehicle’s geometry, reflective properties, and orientation relative to the Sun. Following the insertion of JWST into its L2 libration orbit on January 24, 2022, the commissioning phase for the vehicle’s observatory commenced along with the first cycle of routine station-keeping maneuvers. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) provides navigation services for the JWST mission. The FDF serves as the prime or backup navigation operations center for more than 30 active missions spanning a wide array of flight regimes performing orbit determination, maneuver planning, trajectory optimization, and tracking data evaluation. Definitive orbit determination for JWST is performed by the FDF using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the vehicle’s trajectory and reflective properties using Deep Space Network (DSN) TRK-2-34 tracking data and spacecraft attitude telemetry. For the purposes of orbit prediction and station-keeping maneuver targeting, the sensitivity of the SRP force to the vehicle’s orientation requires that predictive attitude information must be incorporated to generate accurate orbit predictions and maneuver plans. Predictive attitude plans are provided to the FDF by the JWST Spacecraft Operations Center (SOC). Short-term (28 day) orbit predictions are propagated using a Short Range Attitude Plan (SRAP) to model the vehicle’s future attitude states for up to a week. SRAP attitude data is highly reliable, as it reflects finalized planned attitude states that the vehicle will be commanded to attain during the ensuing week. A Long Range Attitude Plan (LRAP) can be implemented to model predicted attitude states beyond one week, but these predictions are tentative and subject to revision due to changes in science operations plans. Instead, a conservative approach of applying a Sun-Pointing Neutral (SPN) attitude configuration is utilized for long-term (2 year) orbit predictions where reliable planned attitude data is not available. SPN attitude mode aligns the net SRP force along the JWST-to-Sun vector where it becomes independent of the vehicle’s angle of rotation about this vector, defined as the Sun yaw. Given the dynamic instability of the libration orbit, station-keeping thrust must be applied in either the sunward or anti-sunward direction to balance the resulting orbit. The attitude constraints of the vehicle also impose limits on the available pointing directions for station-keeping thrusters. The thrusters cannot be aligned with the optimal pointing direction for sunward maneuvers, rendering sunward maneuvers to be significantly less fuel efficient than anti-sunward maneuvers. Consequently, station-keeping maneuvers must be targeted to balance the orbit while ensuring that the next maneuver will also be performed in the anti-sunward direction to optimize propellant usage. When targeting a station-keeping maneuver, the attitude and SRP modeling configuration which is applied to the predicted post-maneuver trajectory will dictate the direction of the subsequent station-keeping maneuver, assuming nominal propulsion system performance. If the predicted post-maneuver attitude states result in an SRP model which under-predicts the cumulative SRP impact on the post-maneuver orbit, a targeted anti-sunward maneuver will be larger than necessary and the next maneuver will need to be executed sunward in order to compensate. In contrast, an anti-sunward maneuver which is targeted using an SRP model which over-predicts the cumulative SRP impact will achieve station-keeping while ensuring that the next maneuver will likewise be performed anti-sunward. For this reason, station-keeping maneuvers are targeted while applying the SPN attitude mode, as this mode entails the largest possible SRP area cross-section and therefore a larger modeled cumulative SRP impact. This paper documents the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s FDF support for JWST on-orbit operations and the analysis projects undertaken utilizing the experiences and data accumulated throughout the first full year of routine science operations. The results of these analysis efforts have been used to implement improvements to orbit prediction accuracy and maneuver efficiency which have the potential to prolong the lifespan of JWST to continue to conduct ground-breaking infrared astronomy for decades to come.

Flight Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Sun to the Earth - and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics

The sun is the source of energy for life on earth and is the strongest modulator of the human physical environment. In fact, the Sun's influence extends throughout the solar system, both through photons, which provide heat, light, and ionization, and through the continuous outflow of a magnetized, supersonic ionized gas known as the solar wind. While the accomplishments of the past decade have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. The Sun to the Earth--and Beyond organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond. While the accomplishments of the past decades have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. This report organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond: Challenge 1: Understanding the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the origin of the solar cycle, the causes of solar activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona. Challenge 2: Understanding heliospheric structure, the distribution of magnetic fields and matter throughout the solar system, and the interaction of the solar atmosphere with the local interstellar medium. Challenge 3: Understanding the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies and their dynamical response to external and internal influences. Challenge 4: Understanding the basic physical principles manifest in processes observed in solar and space plasmas. Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive capability for understanding and quantifying the impact on human activities of dynamical processes at the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. This report summarizes the state of knowledge about the total heliospheric system, poses key scientific questions for further research, and presents an integrated research strategy, with prioritized initiatives, for the next decade. The recommended strategy embraces both basic research programs and targeted basic research activities that will enhance knowledge and prediction of space weather effects on Earth. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Sun, the heliosphere, and planetary magnetospheres and ionospheres as astrophysical objects and as laboratories for the investigation of fundamental plasma physics phenomena.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Future Radiation Damage in Space due to South Atlantic Anomaly

Predictions of radiation damage for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites now use semi-empirical models developed from prior satellite data. From these models it is clear that the low field strength of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) controls where the maximum radiation damage occurs. One may make an estimate of future radiation damage to LEO spacecraft if one can predict the future of the SAA. Although reliable maps of the geomagnetic field strength and its secular change have only been made in the last few decades, certain geomagnetic observatories in South America and Africa have recorded the geomagnetic field for a much longer time. These observatories show that the present geomagnetic field change has persisted for more than 100 years. In spite of the fact that a few observatories have shown sudden changes in secular variation, those around the SAA have shown a stable secular variation. Assuming that this will continue for the next 50 to 100 years one can show that the SAA will expand to cover most of the South Atlantic Ocean and will become much weaker. This will greatly intensify the radiation hazard in LEO, put significant new limitations on radiation-hardened hardware, severely restrict the length of time that humans can remain in orbit, and materially change the configuration of the radiation belts.

Heirtzler, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. In this talk we will demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating 61 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. Herein we demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating C1 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area s variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tools for Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Climate and environmental change are expected to fundamentally alter the nation's hydrological cycle and water availability. Satellites provide global or near-global coverage using instruments, allowing for consistent, well-calibrated, and equivalent-quality data of the Earth system. A major goal for NASA climate and environmental change research is to create multi-instrument data sets to span the multi-decadal time scales of climate change and to combine these data with those from modeling and surface-based observing systems to improve process understanding and predictions. NASA and Earth science data and analyses will ultimately enable more accurate climate prediction, and characterization of uncertainties. NASA's Applied Sciences Program works with other groups, including other federal agencies, to transition demonstrated observational capabilities to operational capabilities. A summary of some of NASA tools for improved water resources management will be presented.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Instabilities in the Wake of Roughness on a Flat Plate in a Quiet Supersonic Tunnel

Roughness-induced transition is an unavoidable reality in practical high-speed vehicles. Typical prediction of transition due to roughness include algebraic correlations and, more recently, semi-empirical methods. In the NASA Langley Research Center Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel, a Mach 3.5 quiet tunnel, several transition experiments have been performed in the past decade to better understand the mechanisms by which small roughness causes transition in a supersonic boundary layer. The study started first with isolated roughness elements of different planforms and shapes and progressed to increasingly more complicated geometries before arriving at a pseudorandom roughness, defined by an analytic function. Concurrent computational efforts progressed with these studies as well, starting with the use of linear stability theory and progressing to the use of harmonic linearized Navier-Stokes to predict the growth of boundary layer stabilities.

Amanda Chou↗
NASA NTRS1990

Aeroelastic problems in turbomachines

A review of the field of turbomachinery aeroelasticity is presented. Developments over the past decade are emphasized, and an assessment of possible future directions of research is offered. The paper reviews the areas of unsteady cascade flows, structural modeling, and flutter prediction methods. Representative results for unsteady flow calculations and flutter boundary predictions in subsonic, transonic, and supersonic flows are discussed, including recent calculations based on the methods of computational fluid mechanics. Results from current attempts to correlate experimental data with theoretical predictions are discussed briefly. It is recommended that future research include investigations of novel approaches to flutter calculations that can take full advantage of parallel processing supercomputers. The feasibility of using mistuning and aeroelastic tailoring as passive flutter suppression techniques should also be pursued.

Bendiksen, Oddvar O.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Hindlimb unloading of growing rats: a model for predicting skeletal changes during space flight

A model that uses hindlimb unloading of rats was developed to study the consequences of skeletal unloading and reloading as occurs during and following space flight. Studies using the model were initiated two decades ago and further developed at National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Ames Research Center. The model mimics some aspects of exposure to microgravity by removing weightbearing loads from the hindquarters and producing a cephalic fluid shift. Unlike space flight, the forelimbs remain loaded in the model, providing a useful internal control to distinguish between the local and systemic effects of hindlimb unloading. Rats that are hindlimb unloaded by tail traction gain weight at the same rate as pairfed controls, and glucocorticoid levels are not different from controls, suggesting that systemic stress is minimal. Unloaded bones display reductions in cancellous osteoblast number, cancellous mineral apposition rate, trabecular bone volume, cortical periosteal mineralization rate, total bone mass, calcium content, and maturation of bone mineral relative to controls. Subsequent studies reveal that these changes also occur in rats exposed to space flight. In hindlimb unloaded rats, bone formation rates and masses of unloaded bones decline relative to controls, while loaded bones do not change despite a transient reduction in serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25D) concentrations. Studies using the model to evaluate potential countermeasures show that 1,25D, growth hormone, dietary calcium, alendronate, and muscle stimulation modify, but do not completely correct, the suppression of bone growth caused by unloading, whereas continuous infusion of transforming growth factor-beta2 or insulin-like growth factor-1 appears to protect against some of the bone changes caused by unloading. These results emphasize the importance of local as opposed to systemic factors in the skeletal response to unloading, and reveal the pivotal role that osteoblasts play in the response to gravitational loading. The hindlimb unloading model provides a unique opportunity to evaluate in detail the physiological and cellular mechanisms of the skeletal response to weightbearing loads, and has proven to be an effective model for space flight.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2018

Lyman-Alpha Comes of Age

The Lyman-alpha (Lyα) line is the strongest recombination line of hydrogen, which constitutes the dominant share of normal matter in the Universe. Fifty-one years ago, it was predicted that Lyα emission should appear prominently in the spectra of young primordial galaxies. For the next 30 years, this prediction was tested by many surveys, but none found the predicted galaxies at the predicted luminosities. The blame for these non-detections was squarely cast on the resonant nature of the Lyα line, which requires Lyα photons to scatter off many hydrogen atoms before escaping from a galaxy. This can hugely increase the path that they traverse, and consequently also the probability that they will be absorbed by dust. This remained the dominant explanation of the missing high-redshift lines for decades, despite some dissenting opinions about the effect of dust. The spectra of nearby galaxies from the International Ultraviolet Explorer are inconclusive about what allows galaxies to be Lyα emitters. The ‘missing’ lines were finally detected 20 years ago, at flux levels much below the original predictions - a difference that we understand to be predominantly due to the hierarchical growth of galaxies, such that star-forming objects at high redshift are much less massive than anticipated in the original prediction. The discovery and study of Lyα galaxies has blossomed into an invaluable method for understanding the youngest stages of galaxy formation, the circumgalactic medium, and ultimately the epoch of reionization. The high equivalent widths of Lyα galaxies from the earliest high-redshift surveys show that they are low-mass galaxies dominated by young stellar populations. The Sakura CLAW workshop (which used the Twitter hashtag #SakuraCLAW) gathered more than 110 participants (Fig. 1) who showcased progress that pushed the frontiers of Lyα galaxy science in sample size, sensitivity, redshifts and physical understanding..

Malhotra, Sangeeta↗
NASA NTRS1998

Contributions of Nimbus 7 TOMS Data to Volcanic Study and Hazard Mitigation

Nimbus TOMS data have led to advancements among many volcano-related scientific disciplines, from the initial ability to quantify SO2 clouds leading to derivations of eruptive S budgets and fluxes, to tracking of individual clouds, assessing global volcanism and atmospheric impacts. Some of the major aspects of TOMS-related research, listed below, will be reviewed and updated: (1) Measurement of volcanic SO2 clouds: Nimbus TOMS observed over 100 individual SO2 clouds during its mission lifetime; large explosive eruptions are now routinely and reliably measured by satellite. (2) Eruption processes: quantification of SO2 emissions have allowed assessments of eruption sulfur budgets, the evaluation of "excess" sulfur, and inferences of H2S emissions. (3) Detection of ash: TOMS data are now used to detect volcanic particulates in the atmosphere, providing complementary analyses to infrared methods of detection. Paired TOMS and AVHRR studies have provided invaluable information on volcanic cloud compositions and processes. (4) Cloud tracking and hazard mitigation: volcanic clouds can be considered gigantic tracers in the atmosphere, and studies of the fates of these clouds have led to new knowledge of their physical and chemical dispersion in the atmosphere for predictive models. (5) Global trends: the long term data set has provided researchers an unparalleled record of explosive volcanism, and forms a key component in assessing annual to decadal trends in global S emissions. (6) Atmospheric impacts: TOMS data have been linked to independent records of atmospheric change, in order to compare cause and effect processes following a massive injection of SO2 into the atmosphere. (7) Future TOMS instruments and applications: Nimbus TOMS has given way to new satellite platforms, with several wavelength and resolution modifications. New efforts to launch a geostationary TOMS could provide unprecedented observations of volcanic activity.

Krueger, Arlin J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS2011

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Strong, Keith↗