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NASA NTRS2019

How Much Testing is Needed to Manage Supportability Risks for Beyond-LEO Missions?

Supportability will be a significantly greater driver of cost and risk for future deep-space crewed missions than it has been in the past. Spares requirements and maintenance risk mitigation in particular present an unprecedented challenge for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), since, for the first time in human spaceflight history, crews will be weeks or months away from resupply or a safe return to Earth in the event of an abort. Under these conditions, failure rates are a critical parameter that must be well-understood in order to manage logistics and risk effectively. However, failure rates cannot be measured directly, and can only be estimated based on past experience and test results. Previous research has shown that International Space Station (ISS) operational experience has provided significant benefits to future missions by reducing uncertainty and improving accuracy in failure rate estimates, resulting in significant reductions in mass and risk for beyond-LEO missions. This paper updates and expands on that research and quantifies the potential value of continued testing for future mission supportability. Frequentist and Bayesian models for evaluating, validating, and updating failure rate estimates are described, and are combined with supportability models to examine potential impacts of additional operating experience for future missions in terms of logistics mass reduction. The implications of these results for technology development, system design, and program planning are discussed along with lessons learned and recommendations for future system development. In the end, there is no simple answer to the question of how much testing is required, but the models described in this paper provide a way to evaluate the potential impacts of testing in order to inform test planning.

Andrew C Owens↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Big Plunge at Venus: The DAVINCI Descent Phase

DAVINCI (Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging) was selected as one of two new Discovery missions in summer of 2021 with the primary goals are to study how the Venus atmosphere formed and changed over time. DAVINCI does this by making in situ measurements of the atmosphere and taking images below the cloud layer during the descent phase. The probe is neither designed nor required to land on the surface so all critical science data must be taken and transmitted to a relay spacecraft prior to impact. This architecture drives the mission to a carefully-crafted concept of operations; deployments, instrument operations, and communications are choreographed to ensure the right data is gathered at the right altitude given the uncertainties in the trajectory and timeline. A complex flow of analyses and tests throughout development will validate the system’s ability to execute the mission goals. In the end, DAVINCI will be ready for the one opportunity at one hour of descent time to meet its driving science goals.

DAVINCI↗

NASA NTRS2015

Numerical Simulations of the XR-5 Hall Thruster for Life Assessment at Different Operating Conditions

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been investigating the applicability of Aerojet Rocketdyne's XR-5 thruster, a 4.5 kW class Hall thruster, for deep-space missions. Major considerations for qualifying the XR-5 for deep-space missions are demonstration of a wide throttling envelope and a usable life capability in excess of 10,000 h. Numerical simulations with the 2-D axisymmetric code Hall2De are employed to inform the qualification process by assessing erosion rates at the thruster surfaces in a wide range of throttling conditions without the need for conducting costly endurance testing. In previous work at JPL by Jorns et al., the anomalous collision frequency distribution for 11 different throttling conditions of the XR-5 spanning 0.3-4.5 kW were identified based on probe measurements of the electron temperature in the near plume region. In this paper, we provide estimates for the erosion rates at the channel walls and pole covers for the same 11 conditions. Uncertainties in the plasma measurements and in the anomalous collision frequency distribution are addressed by determining upper and lower bounds of the erosion rates. Results suggest that erosion of the walls only occurs in the last 5% of the acceleration channel and the rate of such erosion decreases as the geometry of the thruster changes in time due to magnetic shielding. A quasi-zero-erosion state is eventually achieved in all the examined throttling conditions. Examination of the results for pole surface erosion and estimated cathode life indicates that the XR-5 propellant throughput capability will exceed 700 kg, which provides 50% margin over the usable throughput capability of 466 kg as already demonstrated in wear testing.

Lopez Ortega, Alejandro↗

NASA NTRS2014

Model-Based Estimation of Sampling-Caused Uncertainty in Aerosol Remote Sensing for Climate Research Applications

To evaluate the effect of sampling frequency on the global monthly mean aerosol optical thickness (AOT), we use 6 years of geographical coordinates of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) L2 aerosol data, daily global aerosol fields generated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model and the chemical transport models Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport, Spectral Radiationtransport Model for Aerosol Species and Transport Model 5, at a spatial resolution between 1.125 deg × 1.125 deg and 2 deg × 3◦: the analysis is restricted to 60 deg S-60 deg N geographical latitude. We found that, in general, the MODIS coverage causes an underestimate of the global mean AOT over the ocean. The long-term mean absolute monthly difference between all and dark target (DT) pixels was 0.01-0.02 over the ocean and 0.03-0.09 over the land, depending on the model dataset. Negative DT biases peak during boreal summers, reaching 0.07-0.12 (30-45% of the global long-term mean AOT). Addition of the Deep Blue pixels tempers the seasonal dependence of the DT biases and reduces the mean AOT difference over land by 0.01-0.02. These results provide a quantitative measure of the effect the pixel exclusion due to cloud contamination, ocean sun-glint and land type has on the MODIS estimates of the global monthly mean AOT. We also simulate global monthly mean AOT estimates from measurements provided by pixel-wide along-track instruments such as the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor and the Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR with Orthogonal Polarization. We estimate the probable range of the global AOT standard error for an along-track sensor to be 0.0005-0.0015 (ocean) and 0.0029-0.01 (land) or 0.5-1.2% and 1.1-4% of the corresponding global means. These estimates represent errors due to sampling only and do not include potential retrieval errors. They are smaller than or comparable to the published estimate of 0.01 as being a climatologically significant change in the global mean AOT, suggesting that sampling density is unlikely to limit the use of such instruments for climate applications at least on a global, monthly scale.

long-term variability↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Evolution of the Galaxy Rest-Frame Ultraviolet Luminosity Function Over the First Two Billion Years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function at z = 4 to 8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the CANDELS/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1- 2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6-1.2 ×10(exp 6) Mpc(exp 3) over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for bright (M(sub UV) less than −21) and faint (M(sub UV) = −18) galaxies. We select galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 galaxies at 3.5 less than z less than 8.5, with more than 1000 galaxies at z of approximately 6 - 8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for galaxies in our redshift samples, as well as a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright galaxies at z of greater than or equal to 6. Our bestfit value of the characteristic magnitude M* is consistent with −21 at z of greater than or equal to 5, different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift. At z = 8, a single power-law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7, an exponential cutoff at the bright-end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M* is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright-end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, though a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M(sub UV) = −17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 + z)((exp −4.3)(+/-)(0.5)) at z greater than 4, consistent with observations at z greater than or equal to 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at redshift of approximately greater than 10, completes at z greater than 6, and reaches a midpoint (x(sub HII) = 0.5) at 6.7 less than z less than 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, though consistent with recent estimates of bright z similar to 10 galaxies.

Galaxy↗

NASA NTRS2015

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Consistency of In Situ and Remote-Sensing Observations with Stratiform Rain Column Simulations - Part I

Occurrences of jet engine power loss and damage have been associated with flight through fully glaciated deep convection at -10 to -50 degrees Centigrade. Power loss events commonly occur during flight through radar reflectivity (Zeta (sub e)) less than 20-30 decibels relative to Zeta (dBZ - radar returns) and no more than moderate turbulence, often overlying moderate to heavy rain near the surface. During 2010-2012, Airbus carried out flight tests seeking to characterize the highest ice water content (IWC) in such low-radar-reflectivity regions of large, cold-topped storm systems in the vicinity of Cayenne, Darwin, and Santiago. Within the highest IWC regions encountered, at typical sampling elevations (circa 11 kilometers), the measured ice size distributions exhibit a notably narrow concentration of mass over area-equivalent diameters of 100-500 micrometers. Given substantial and poorly quantified measurement uncertainties, here we evaluate the consistency of the Airbus in situ measurements with ground-based profiling radar observations obtained under quasi-steady, heavy stratiform rain conditions in one of the Airbus-sampled locations. We find that profiler-observed radar reflectivities and mean Doppler velocities at Airbus sampling temperatures are generally consistent with those calculated from in situ size-distribution measurements. We also find that column simulations using the in situ size distributions as an upper boundary condition are generally consistent with observed profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and retrieved rain rate. The results of these consistency checks motivate an examination of the microphysical pathways that could be responsible for the observed size-distribution features in Ackerman et al. (2015).

Rain↗

NASA NTRS1993

Precision X-band Doppler and ranging navigation for current and future Mars exploration missions

This paper describes a navigation error covariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes. The simulated data arcs used in the analysis are representative of the actual data arcs that will be used to predict the aim point for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver, in the case of Mars Observer, and the interplanetary trajectory aim point corresponding to the target Mars landing site in the case of MESUR Pathfinder. The results indicate that with a suitable sequential data reduction scheme and accurate calibrations of instrumentation, transmission media, and platform model parameters, navigation accuracies of 5 to 15 km (1 sigma) can be achieved, equivalent to 15 to 40 nrad in geocentric angle uncertainty.

Estefan, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Lightning NOx Production in the Tropics as Determined Using OMI NO2 Retrievals and WWLLN Stroke Data

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) production by lightning in the tropics is estimated using tropospheric NOx amounts (LNOx*) over deep convective grid boxes derived from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) slant columns and detection efficiency adjusted WWLLN (World Wide Lightning Location Network) flashes. The lightning NOx production efficiency (LNOx PE) in the tropics is determined for the austral and boreal summers of 2007 to 2011 by regressing regional mean daily values of LNOx* for individual seasons against daily flash totals during flash windows prior to the OMI overpass. LNOx PE is determined to be approximately two times larger over marine locations than over continental locations possibly because marine flashes are more energetic. Overall, the mean LNOx PE for the tropics is calculated to be 170 ± 100 mol per flash with values over the tropical Pacific (low flash rate region) being largest. The main contributors to uncertainties in PE are uncertainties in WWLLN flash detection efficiency, upper tropospheric NOx lifetime in the near field of convection, and air mass factor biases.

Dale J. Allen↗

NASA NTRS2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗

NASA NTRS1983

Radio Interferometric Determination of Source Positions, Intercontinental Baselines, and Earth Orientation with Deep Space Network Antennas: 1971 to 1980

Approximately 2400 observations of extragalactic radio sources were made between August 1971 and February 1980 during 48 separate sessions. These consisted of 259 delay rate observations at 2.3 GHz (S-band), 796 delay and delay rate observations at either S-band of 8.3 GHz (X-band) and 1325 delay and delay rate observations recorded simultaneously at both S- and X-band. A single multiparameter fit has been applied to the observed values of delay and delay rate to extract astrometric and geophysical parameters from this decade-long sequence. The fit produced estimates of 784 parameters, including station locations, radio source positions, polar motion, Universal Time, the precession constant, and solid earth tides. The a priori model included gravitational bending, the 1980 IAU nutation series, the 1976 IAU expressions for Greenwich mean sidereal time and precession, BIH estimates of Universal Time and polar motion, and monthly mean values for zenith troposphere delay. The rms residuals were 0.52 nsec for delay and 0.30 psec/sec for delay rate. Intercontinental baseline lengths were determined with formal uncertainties of 5 to 10 cm. Universal Time and polar motion were measured at 49 epochs, with formal uncertainties (for the more recent data) of 0.5 msec for UT1 and 6 and 2 mas, respectively, for the X and Y components of polar motion.

Thomas, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radio interferometric determination of source positions utilizing deep space network antennas - 1971 to 1980

Fanselow, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of implementing a radio frequency (RF)–based network of satellites for 3D lightning mapping in high resolution from low Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing tools of the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg-Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

CubeSpark↗

NASA NTRS1991

Radio science ground data system for the Voyager-Neptune encounter, part 1

The Voyager radio science experiments at Neptune required the creation of a ground data system array that includes a Deep Space Network complex, the Parkes Radio Observatory, and the Usuda deep space tracking station. The performance requirements were based on experience with the previous Voyager encounters, as well as the scientific goals at Neptune. The requirements were stricter than those of the Uranus encounter because of the need to avoid the phase-stability problems experienced during that encounter and because the spacecraft flyby was faster and closer to the planet than previous encounters. The primary requirement on the instrument was to recover the phase and amplitude of the S- and X-band (2.3 and 8.4 GHz) signals under the dynamic conditions encountered during the occultations. The primary receiver type for the measurements was open loop with high phase-noise and frequency stability performance. The receiver filter bandwidth was predetermined based on the spacecraft's trajectory and frequency uncertainties.

Kursinski, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Cloud Hydrology and Albedo Synthesis Mission (CHASM)

This slide presentation reviews the Cloud Hydrology and Albedo Synthesis Mission (CHASM). The interaction of clouds with radiation and the hydrological cycle represents a huge uncertainty in our understanding of climate science and the modeling of climate system feedbacks. Despite the recognized need for a unified treatment of cloud processes, the present global average values of remotely sensed cloud liquid water and theoretically accepted values used for cloud physics and precipitation modeling differ by an order of magnitude. This is due in part to sampling and saturation effects, as well as to threedimensional cloud structure effects. In recent work with the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra, we have gained new insights as to how the remote sensing approach could be significantly improved using a new instrument that combines passive optical (visible and near infrared) and microwave measurements, both as pushbroom scanners with multiple viewing angles, to the degree that measurements of liquid water path over deep convective clouds over land also become possible. This instrument would also have the ability of measuring height-resolved cloud-tracked winds using a hyper stereo retrieval technique. Deployment into a precessing low earth orbit would be optimal for measuring diurnal cloud activity. We have explored an instrument design concept for this that looks promising if we can establish partnerships that provide launch and bus capabilities.

hydrology↗

NASA NTRS2000

Participation in the Consolidated Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) as Co-Investigator

During the period under review, Owen-pursued the question of a determination of N-15/N-14 in the atmosphere of Saturn, to be carried out by CIRS when Cassini is in orbit about the planet. There are presently no determinations of this important isotope ratio in Saturn, but a study of the 10 microns spectral region of Jupiter has led to the identification of (N-15)H3 lines with the short Wavelength Spectrometer (SWS) of ISO. The resulting determination was a value of N-15/N-14 = 1.9 (+0.9/-1.0) x 10(exp -3) for this giant planet. This number is decidedly lower than the terrestrial value of 3.66 x 10(exp -3) for molecular nitrogen in the Earth's atmosphere. It is much lower than a direct measurement of N-15/N-14 =5 (+2 /-1) x 10(exp -3) in the solar wind by Kallenbach et al. The latter discrepancy is especially surprising in that Jupiter and the sun are expected to have identical isotope ratios: deep mixing on the sun that would dredge up products of nucleosynthesis from the solar interior is not known to occur. Both Fouchet et al. and Kallenbach et al. suggested that some as yet unknown fractionation process in Jupiter's upper atmosphere might act to enrich N-14 above the NH3 clouds, at the 400 mb pressure level corresponding to the ISO observation. A new measurement of the nitrogen isotopes on Jupiter has just become available from the in situ mass spectra recorded by the Galileo Probe Mass Spectrometer. It is N-15/N-14 = 2.3 +/- 0.3 x 10(exp -3). This determination refers to a pressure level greater than 0.8 mb, weighted toward 2 bars. This new result validates the essential correctness of the Fouchet et al. measurement while greatly reducing the uncertainty. It thus appears that the Kallenbach et al. value must somehow be in error. Further support for this conclusion comes from the upper limit of N-15/N-14 less than 2.8 x 10(exp -3) set for solar wind nitrogen implanted in lunar grains.

Owen, Tobias C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Estimates of M2 Tidal Energy Dissipation from TOPEX/Poseidon Altimeter Data

Most of the tidal energy dissipation in the ocean occurs in shallow seas, as has long been recognized. However, recent work has suggested that a significant fraction of the dissipation, perhaps 1 TW or more, occurs in the deep ocean. This paper builds further evidence for that conclusion. More than 6 years of data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter are used to map the tidal dissipation rate throughout the world ocean. The dissipation rate is estimated as a balance between the rate of working by tidal forces and the energy flux divergence, computed using currents derived by least squares fitting of the altimeter data and the shallow water equations. Such calculations require dynamical assumptions, in particular about the nature of dissipation. To assess sensitivity of dissipation estimates to input assumptions, a large suite of tidal inversions based on a wide range of drag parameterizations and employing both real and synthetic altimeter data are compared. These experiments and Monte Carlo error fields from a generalized inverse model are used to establish error uncertainties for the dissipation estimates. Owing to the tight constraints on tidal elevation fields provided by the altimeter, area integrals of the energy balance are remarkably insensitive to required dynamical assumptions. Tidal energy dissipation is estimated for all major shallow seas (excluding individual polar seas) and compared with previous model and data-based estimates. Dissipation in the open ocean is significantly tnhanced around major bathymetric features, in a manner consistent with simple theories the generation of baroclinic tides.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Big Plunge at Venus: The DAVINCI Descent Phase

DAVINCI (Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging) was selected as one of two new Discovery missions in summer of 2021 with the primary goals to study how the Venus atmosphere formed and changed over time. DAVINCI does this by making in situ measurements of the atmosphere, taking images below the cloud layer during the descent phase, and imaging the surface and clouds during two flyby science opportunities. The Descent Sphere is neither designed nor required to land on the surface so all critical science data must be taken and transmitted to a relay spacecraft prior to impact. This architecture drives the mission to a carefully-crafted concept of operations; deployments, instrument operations, and communications are choreographed to ensure the right data is gathered at the right altitude given the uncertainties in the trajectory and timeline. A complex flow of analyses and tests throughout development will validate the system’s ability to execute the mission goals. In the end DAVINCI will be ready for its one hour of descent time to meet its driving science goals.

DAVINCI↗

NASA NTRS2012

Parametric 3D Atmospheric Reconstruction in Highly Variable Terrain with Recycled Monte Carlo Paths and an Adapted Bayesian Inference Engine

We describe a method for accelerating a 3D Monte Carlo forward radiative transfer model to the point where it can be used in a new kind of Bayesian retrieval framework. The remote sensing challenge is to detect and quantify a chemical effluent of a known absorbing gas produced by an industrial facility in a deep valley. The available data is a single low resolution noisy image of the scene in the near IR at an absorbing wavelength for the gas of interest. The detected sunlight has been multiply reflected by the variable terrain and/or scattered by an aerosol that is assumed partially known and partially unknown. We thus introduce a new class of remote sensing algorithms best described as "multi-pixel" techniques that call necessarily for a 3D radaitive transfer model (but demonstrated here in 2D); they can be added to conventional ones that exploit typically multi- or hyper-spectral data, sometimes with multi-angle capability, with or without information about polarization. The novel Bayesian inference methodology uses adaptively, with efficiency in mind, the fact that a Monte Carlo forward model has a known and controllable uncertainty depending on the number of sun-to-detector paths used.

Monte Carlo↗