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DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Detailed Parameter Modeling of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines on Production Cost Simulation: Preprint

Flexible resources are increasingly important as variable renewable energy deployment in the power system increases. Although many systems are transitioning away from fossil fuels, open-cycle gas turbines are likely to play an important balancing role for some time, thus requiring accurate modeling of their operational parameters. This paper explores the impact of detailed representation of three operational parameters - start- up costs, run-up rates, and forced outage rates - in the production cost model of a system as it adopts higher levels of wind and solar. Using PLEXOS simulations of the NREL-118 bus test system, the study examines how more detailed parameter modeling affects outcomes such as the number of start-ups and shutdowns, ramping and total generation costs for open-cycle gas turbines, as renewable energy levels increase. The results suggest the value of detailed parameter modeling and continued research on combustion turbines' ability to provide flexibility.

economic dispatch↗

DOE OSTI2019

H2@Scale: Economic Potential of Hydrogen as an Energy Intermediate

The H2@Scale concept envisions hydrogen as an energy intermediate across multiple energy sectors. The concept is motivated both by the opportunity to produce hydrogen from low-cost energy resources, and by the many potential applications of hydrogen, including as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. A key hydrogen production opportunity is using variable renewable electricity (i.e., electricity generated by wind turbines or solar photovoltaic panels) during hours when generation exceeds the load on the grid as a source of low-cost, dispatch constrained electricity (LDE). In addition to producing low-cost hydrogen, electrolysis can also serve as a form of responsive load on the electric grid, which can enhance grid stability, reduce curtailment, and create a supplementary revenue stream for generators. The future use and adoption of hydrogen across end-use applications depends both the cost of hydrogen production and on each application's threshold price (i.e., the maximum price each application will pay for hydrogen - above that price, the application has an alternative that is more economic). We estimate economic potential of the hydrogen market - the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to produce and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen - by developing supply and demand curves for hydrogen production and use. The demand curves are based on the threshold price for various quantities of hydrogen in each market, which is affected by projected prices for alternatives that could provide the same service (e.g., fuel for vehicles, feedstock for metals refining). The supply curves include hydrogen produced via natural gas steam methane reforming, high-temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, biomass gasification, and low-temperature electrolysis using LDE. We use a range of market and technology-advancement assumptions to estimate the economic potential for five scenarios in the mid 21st century timeframe, and the corresponding impacts on energy use and emissions. We estimate hydrogen's economic potential to be 14-48 MMT/yr in the contiguous United States - corresponding to 1.5-5 times current annual consumption - depending on key assumptions about the future market conditions and the success of hydrogen production research and development (R&D) in our five scenarios. As a result of the estimated economic potential markets, we also approximate that grid-integrated electrolysis can increase the penetration of wind generation in the electricity market by providing a value stream for LDE, and that total U.S. fossil fuel use could decline below a scenario with high renewable penetration on the grid. We find that hydrogen has potential to provide technical and economic synergies when integrated across multiple sectors of the U.S. energy system, but continued R&D, infrastructure, and market development for LDE are required.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Post-extreme-event restoration using linear topological constraints and DER scheduling to enhance distribution system resilience

In this paper, a post-extreme-event restoration (PEER) algorithm is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. Linear topological constraints are proposed to ensure radial topology after N-k contingencies, possibly in multiple islands. The approach is made comprehensive by considering dispatchable distributed energy resources (DERs), non-dispatchable DERs, and demand responses, as well as on-load tap changers (OLTCs) and shunt capacitors. The goal is to minimize the accumulative expense caused by load reduction payment or penalty, as well as DER operation cost. As a result, the overall system will survive longer with higher resilience during an extreme event. To verify the effectiveness of the PEER algorithm, we proposed a resilience evaluation algorithm using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with reduced scenarios. This is based on a probabilistic model for generating random scenarios which consider the uncertainty of line faults and solar irradiance. Combined with the proposed PEER algorithm, this reduced-scenario MCS can evaluate the expected energy not served (EENS) which is an essential index for distribution system resilience. Case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems validate the proposed algorithm in reducing EENS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Controller Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Microgrid Controller for a Microgrid System with Multiple Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents the laboratory evaluation of a commercial Microgrid Management System (MGMS) implemented in the real-world Bronzeville Microgrid which features a futuristic scenario with high renewable energy integration and the use of multiple Grid-Forming (GFM) inverters. The primary objective of the performance evaluation for the MGMS is to assess the MGMS's capability to dispatch GFM units, including a GFM PV unit and two GFM battery units, to maintain the system stability and ensure economic operation, thus guaranteeing the microgrid's resilience during prolonged outages and dynamic events. The laboratory controller hardware-in-the-loop provides realistic testing environment through detailed electromagnetic transient modeling of the microgrid system, hardware MGMS, and standard communication protocols (DNP3). The CHIL evaluation shows how the MGMS effectively manages the GFM inverters, highlighting its performance in maintaining stability, reliability, and survivability in a microgrid environment with a high penetration of renewable energy sources.

controller hardware-in-the-loop↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controller Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Microgrid Controller for a Microgrid System with Multiple Grid-Forming Inverters: Preprint

controller hardware-in-the-loop↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Pumped Heat Energy Storage with Fossil-Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The project team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Malta Inc. (Malta), and Luminant Generation Company LLC (Luminant) completed a feasibility study for the integration of a 100-MW, 10-hour (1000-MWh) Malta Pumped Heat Energy Storage (MPHES) system with multiple full-sized fossil-fired electricity generation units (EGU) in Luminant portfolio. MPHES is a long-duration, molten-salt-energy storage technology that uses turbomachinery and heat exchangers to transfer energy to a thermal storage media when charging, and removes the heat in a similar fashion when discharging. With high round trip efficiency (60-65%) and long lifespan (30+ years), MPHES provides economic benefits to the fossil-asset owners that can be scaled to integrate with assets across their portfolio. This technology uses hardware components, workforce personnel, and skillsets similar to those used by fossil EGUs, allowing for synergy when co-locating the two technologies. Luminant has approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation across 12 states, operating in six of the seven competitive markets in the U.S. and powered by a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities. The DeCordova plant in Granbury, Texas, a simple cycle natural gas peaker power plant, was used as the fossil-fired asset in this project. The local market in Granbury, Texas has many influences, including several nearby power plants, a Luminant-owned nuclear plant (Comanche Peak), and substantial wind energy, which causes both negative pricing at night and high market volatility. Reducing false starts of the DeCordova plant and better responding to market volatility would be an economic advantage. Luminant is currently integrating battery storage plant on site to begin addressing these challenges. Integrating long-duration storage, like MPHES, would expand this capability beyond one hour of storage and have the potential to greatly reduce the total number of gas turbine starts. The MPHES charging requirement could help offset the overnight operating costs of Comanche Peak, which cannot load follow, and the nearby Luminant-owned Wise County combined cycle plant that cycles too often. Following the assessment of Luminant’s ERCOT-based portfolio for integration compatibility with Malta’s PHES system and the project tasks of conceptual study, technoeconomic analysis, technology gap assessment, and commercialization plan, the project team effort has resulted in several key outcomes: (1) Identification of market trends in a high-wind penetration market outside a major metropolitan area; (2) Creation of a dispatching model for the MPHES system and the pairing of Li-ion battery with a gas turbine in a real time market; (3) Revenue and cost estimations for operating MPHES alongside a gas peaker plant with real dispatching considerations and comparison with variations in the Malta implementation, including doubling the storage capacity and using two discharge drivetrains; (4) Potential carbon emission reductions possible by replacing gas turbine operation with Malta PHES operation; and (5) Summary of literature-based future market predictions for Texas.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic evaluation of variable renewable energy participation in U.S. ancillary services markets

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenue for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from the resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets where ancillary service prices are set. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015–2019) simulated incremental revenues from power regulation market participation were 0.0–2.9 USD/MWh (+0–15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and 1–33 USD/MWh (+1–69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE could provide power regulation reserves during periods with high power regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the relevance of separate upward and downward power regulation products and indicates that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Refrigeration Units in Off Grid PV/Wind Hybrid Systems on Tribal Land

This paper looks at the performance of residential refrigeration units in off-grid photovoltaic and small wind hybrid (PV/wind) systems with battery storage. Off grid hybrid power systems, dispatched by Navajo Tribal Utility Authority (NTUA), allow Navajo Nation residents in rural areas to have the benefits of electricity. On the Navajo Nation, the rural and rugged nature of the land results in a high capital cost to connecting a house to the grid. In this case, a hybrid PV/wind power generation system may be used at a much lower cost to the customer. In providing affordable power systems to customers, the systems are designed to provide adequate power for use. This requires a constant conservative use of electricity. For systems with refrigerators which are large alternating current (AC) loads, there are performance issues that arise. NTUA reports that new energy star rated refrigerators have performance issues in working with these off grid systems. This paper looks at ways to improve the performance of these systems with the use of a refrigeration unit. This involves looking at conventional refrigerators with its operation. This paper also looks at alternative methods of refrigeration. Also, the power system is looked at to increase the performance in maintaining a proper balance of the system. Lastly, solutions will be recommended to solve the refrigeration issues faced by NTUA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Electrolysis' Potential Value for Supporting the Electrical Grid

The H2@Scale concept includes a value proposition for electrolysis that benefits both hydrogen markets and the electricity system. Electrolysis has the potential to be an alternative low-cost hydrogen source by using low-price electricity that may be available for only a limited number of hours annually. It also has the potential to provide value to the grid through use of that low-cost electricity. By doing so, electrolysis can create a price floor which could support additional investment in low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) generation such as photovoltaic solar, wind, and nuclear. The rapid-response characteristics of low-temperature electrolysis enables it to also provide ancillary services to the grid such as operating reserves and frequency control. We evaluate the economic performance of water electrolysis in a selection of electricity markets - both current and potential future markets. To perform that evaluation, we collect locational marginal prices (LMPs) in each market, calculate levelized hydrogen costs, and compare them to cost estimates of producing hydrogen via steam methane reforming of natural gas. Those calculations also include electolyzer capital and operating costs. We perform the calculations across a range of capacity factors to identify the minimum levelized hydrogen cost in that range. We discuss the implications of that capacity factor for each market analyzed. For a couple of the analyzed electricity markets, we include the potential value of providing ancillary services in the calculation and discuss those impacts. LDE generation has been shown to suppress electricity prices because it generates electricity when the resource is available (i.e., the sun is shining, wind is blowing, nuclear heat is being produced) and the generation cannot be reduced without an economic penalty. Price suppression is likely to reduce investment in those technologies due to reductions in projected income of each marginal unit. If electrolyzers are willing to pay for the LDE, it could provide a price floor for electricity. We analyze how setting a price for LDE could impact the electricity generation fleet, the availability of LDE, and the potential levelized costs of producing hydrogen using that LDE. Among other results, we will present a set of supply curves showing potential production costs and availability for hydrogen produced from LDE in a future with high penetrations of renewable electricity on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-time Implementation of Grid Code Compliant Grid Edge Energy Management System

Integrated distributed energy resources (DER) in a distribution system need to follow grid codes to avoid violations that result in DER/circuit segment disconnection. To comply with grid code requirements at the grid edge level, network constrained grid edge energy management system (EMS) can be deployed. The objective of grid edge EMS is to provide economic solution for active and reactive power DER setpoints at each dispatch interval and ensure voltage regulation to support secure interconnection of the grid edge segment to the distribution system with multiple inverter based DER units. In this work, real-time simulation of grid code compliant grid edge EMS is deployed in a realistic feeder circuit segment. For real-time simulation, communication between the grid edge EMS and DERs is done exploiting IEC 61850-7-420. It enables interoperability among different DERs and grid edge EMS. No prior art has deployed IEC 61850-7-420 GOOSE communication protocol for grid edge EMS. Conversion of IEC 61850 GOOSE messages to Modbus communication protocol is also performed to communicate with grid edge EMS in commodity-off the shelf embedded boards in this work. The real-time simulation in OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator shows the out-performance of grid edge EMS by reducing the voltage violation in the distribution circuit.

Energy management system↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stand-Alone and Hybrid Electric Thermal Energy Storage in the System Advisor Model

This project developed stand-alone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES), stand-alone pumped thermal energy storage (PTES), and hybrid molten-salt power tower (MSPT)-ETES performance and dispatch optimization techno-economic models. The models are available to the public through the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, scripting, and as open-source code. We compared results of the dispatch model to PLEXOS dispatch of a similar generator using the same initial grid pricing signal and found our dispatch model performed well, but closer agreement between the models was limited by the inherent differences between price-taker and unit commitment models. Nevertheless, the price-taker models developed in this project are useful to analyze proposed ETES and PTES technologies because they provide more detailed system and component models, solve several orders of magnitude faster, and are available as free open-source software. The model results represent the most optimistic returns considering grid arbitrage from the input electricity pricing, so the financial results can be applied as a feasibility stage-gate. We also submitted a journal draft paper that describes the ETES dispatch model methodology and demonstrates model functionality. An accepted journal article will serve as peer-reviewed documentation for the models, along with the open-source code, SAM help-menu content, and eventually this final project report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis

The First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis (aka the STEP 1 Project or the Project) aimed to (1) developed a brand-new web tool that could provide decision support through free, rapid techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter solar+storage systems for industrial process heat and (2) conduct high-level analyses of the cost-competitiveness of the same systems across the US in key sectors. The STEP 1 web tool collects key location, land availability, thermal load profile, proccess heat temperature and media, and other key parameters through an easy-to-use user interface (UI). The UI was designed to meet the user at their level of understanding by minimizing the number of required inputs as much as possible while including options for more nuanced inputs if the user desires. STEP 1 advises users on which solar thermal tehcnologies that could fit their needs based on the inputs provided (namely process media and temperature). The tool can model a wide range of solar thermal technologies including flat plate collectors, evacuated tubes, parabolic troughs, linear Fresnel, and molten salt towers all with corresponding thermal energy storage (TES) - solar PV with resistive heating and TES is also included. Once the parameters are collected, a nominal thermal energy production profile for the facility's location is generated using NREL's System Advisory Model (SAM) and then passed to a modified version of NREL's REopt platform to optimize the size (capacity) and dispatch of the solar+storage system to minimize lifecycle costs subject to energy balance, fuel and electricity rates, emission reductions goals, and other constraints. This entire process takes less than 20 minutes, is completely free, requires zero coding skills, and provides the user with a high-level assessment on the techno-economic feasability of deploying solar+storage systems for their energy needs. In addition to the development of the STEP 1 web tool, the project completed two complementary analyses focused on leveraging the backend code of STEP 1, public industrial facility locations and fuel consumption data, and key sector information to assess the economic opportunity of reducing fuel costs at various levels of capacity factor around the US. Both analyses found that there are key markets, locations, industrial sectors (namely food and beverage), and degrees of offset where solar thermal technologies could be cost-effectively deployed, highlighting a key market entry point for these technologies, and assessing deployment potential. In summary, the STEP 1 project improved the opportunities for solar+storage systems to expand into the industrial process heat market through breaking down barriers to assessing these technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models: Preprint

Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve demand over the evolution of many years or decades. Various CEM formulations are used to evaluate systems ranging in scale from states or utility service territories to national or multi-national systems. CEMs can be computationally complex, and to achieve acceptable solve times, key parameters are often estimated using simplified methods. In this paper, we focus on two of these key parameters associated with the integration of variable generation (VG) resources: capacity value and curtailment. We first discuss common modeling simplifications used in CEMs to estimate capacity value and curtailment, many of which are based on a representative subset of hours that can miss important tail events or which require assumptions about the load and resource distributions that may not match actual distributions. We then present an alternate approach that captures key elements of chronological operation over all hours of the year without the computationally intensive economic dispatch optimization typically employed within more detailed operational models. The updated methodology characterizes the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load and net load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the potential reductions in curtailments enabled through deployment of storage and more flexible operation of select thermal generators. We apply this alternate methodology to an existing CEM, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). Results demonstrate that this alternate approach provides more accurate estimates of capacity value and curtailments by explicitly capturing system interactions across all hours of the year. This approach could be applied more broadly to CEMs at many different scales where hourly resource and load data is available, greatly improving the representation of challenges associate with integration of variable generation resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Model for Evaluating the Configuration and Dispatch of PV Plus Battery Power Plants

An open-source model was developed to optimize energy storage operation for photovoltaic- (PV-) plus-battery systems with AC-coupled and DC-coupled configurations. It includes the ability to use forecast energy prices to optimize battery charge and discharge on a rolling time horizon. The model allows for exploration of different configurations, including capital costs, inverter performance, dispatch flexibility, and capturing otherwise clipped energy for the DC-coupled system. The model can run 20 full years of hourly data in approximately two seconds, allowing comparison of a large number of configurations. We applied the model in a test case demonstrating reduced inverter clipping for DC-coupled systems and yielded slightly higher overall value than AC-coupled systems, with an approximately 2 percent increase in internal rate of return or benefit/cost ratio. Our results show that at current estimated prices for lithium-ion battery systems, large-scale PV-plus-battery plants are economically viable under the right conditions, with the configuration playing a role in system flexibility and performance. This model provides the ability for project developers, industry professionals, and researchers to use readily available software to quickly evaluate and design these systems.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Variable Renewable Energy Participation in U.S. Ancillary Services Markets: Economic Evaluation and Key Issues

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenues for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015-2019) simulated incremental revenues from regulation market participation were $\$$0.0-2.9/MWh (+0-15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and $\$$1-33/MWh (+1-69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE were able to provide regulation reserves during periods with high regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the value of separate upward and downward regulation products and suggests that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗