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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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311 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Second Annual Progress Report on Correlation Between Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Neutron-Irradiated Ferritic-Martensitic and Austenitic Steels

Ferritic-martensitic steels G92-2b (an optimized Grade 92 heat), NF616 and T91, and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Selected G92-2b samples were irradiated up to 14.66 dpa in the HFIR at two temperature ranges: 400–496.7°C and 683.3– 720°C. NF616 and T91 were irradiated in the ATR up to 8.16 dpa with the irradiation temperatures ranged from 241°C to 447.5°C. Alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples were irradiated in both the HFIR and the ATR. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples had HFIR irradiation to 1.28 dpa at 580°C and ATR irradiation up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurements, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the Low Activation Materials Design and Analysis (LAMDA) laboratory. Radiation-hardening of G92-2b was observed at the lower doses and lower irradiation temperatures (400- 496.7°C), with GB03 (0.52 dpa at 400°C) and GB04 (7.44 dpa at ~490°C) showing ~12% and ~8% hardening, respectively. Softening by ~14% was observed for GB05 (14.66 dpa at 496.7°C). Radiationsoftening of G92-2b was more prevalent at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with GB10 (0.46 dpa at 683.3°C), GB11 (7.44 dpa at ~720°C), and GB12 (14.63 dpa at ~720°C) showing ~8%, ~8%, and ~40% softening, respectively. Radiation-hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed with the hardness increased by ~37% to ~65% depending on the irradiation doses and irradiation temperatures. Within the studied irradiation conditions of NF616 and T91, samples with a higher dose had a larger hardness after irradiation. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in this work showed radiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800H-TMP tended to have slightly smaller radiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography results of G92-2b sample GB03, GB10, and GB11, together with the previously characterized fractography of GB04, GB05, and GB12, indicated that the ductility of G92-2b was maintained up to 14.66 dpa at the lower irradiation temperatures of 400-496.7°C, while some loss of ductility (less necking) was observed for higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-720°C. This agrees with the previously reported tensile test results of G92-2b, where the elongation of G92-2b was reduced at higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures. Dimple sizes increased at higher doses, which are more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-~720°C. The fractography of NF616 sample D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for sample D2, while ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in various irradiation conditions showed ductile failure with obvious necking. Dimples were observed, with some of them containing large Ti-rich particles, in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. Electron backscatter diffraction characterization of GB12 indicated the recovery of the lath structure, which was generally replaced by an equiaxed grain structure. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization showed the presence of frequent M 23 C 6 (M = primarily Cr), MX (M = primarily V), spherical Nb(C,N) precipitates, and occasional Laves phase precipitates in the G92-2b samples. MX precipitates with sizes of 20-30 nm were observed at boundaries of smaller grains, indicating the pinning effect of the V-rich precipitates. The lath structure recovery was more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with decreased densities of line dislocations and M23C6 precipitates. The irradiated T91 (TA04) showed the growth of M23C6 precipitates to 101 ± 40 nm from the initial 68 ± 22 nm in the unirradiated condition. Dislocation loops of both {100} and {111} types were present in TA04. TEM characterization was also performed on the irradiated 800H (N4, N5, N6, and AR2) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5, P6, and HG1). Accumulation of M 23 C 6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all the xii 800H/800H-TMP samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in the irradiated 800H-TMP. Some Ti(C,N) precipitates are embedded in the M 23 C 6 precipitates, maintaining specific orientation relationships between the precipitates and between the precipitate and matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all the 800H/800H-TMP samples, with EDS Si maps tending to have a lower contrast in 800H-TMP samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, supported by a Rapid Turnaround Examination project under Nuclear Science User Facilities. The results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the γ’ precipitates. Dislocation loops also formed in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. The density and the average size of dislocation loops were quantified to be in the order of 10 22 – 10 23 m -3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively, in the ATR-irradiated 800H/800H-TMP samples. The loop densities in irradiated 800H were higher than that in irradiated 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1998

Residual Stresses Modeled in Thermal Barrier Coatings

Thermal barrier coating (TBC) applications continue to increase as the need for greater engine efficiency in aircraft and land-based gas turbines increases. However, durability and reliability issues limit the benefits that can be derived from TBC's. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms that cause TBC failure is a key to increasing, as well as predicting, TBC durability. Oxidation of the bond coat has been repeatedly identified as one of the major factors affecting the durability of the ceramic top coat during service. However, the mechanisms by which oxidation facilitates TBC failure are poorly understood and require further characterization. In addition, researchers have suspected that other bond coat and top coat factors might influence TBC thermal fatigue life, both separately and through interactions with the mechanism of oxidation. These other factors include the bond coat coefficient of thermal expansion, the bond coat roughness, and the creep behavior of both the ceramic and bond coat layers. Although it is difficult to design an experiment to examine these factors unambiguously, it is possible to design a computer modeling "experiment" to examine the action and interaction of these factors, as well as to determine failure drivers for TBC's. Previous computer models have examined some of these factors separately to determine their effect on coating residual stresses, but none have examined all the factors concurrently. The purpose of this research, which was performed at DCT, Inc., in contract with the NASA Lewis Research Center, was to develop an inclusive finite element model to characterize the effects of oxidation on the residual stresses within the TBC system during thermal cycling as well as to examine the interaction of oxidation with the other factors affecting TBC life. The plasma sprayed, two-layer thermal barrier coating that was modeled incorporated a superalloy substrate, a NiCrAlY bond coat, and a ZrO2-8 wt % Y2O3 ceramic top coat. We examined the effect on stress during burner rig thermal cycling of the following independent variables: creep in the bond coat and top coat, oxidation, bond coat coefficient of thermal expansion, number of thermal cycles, and interfacial roughness. All these factors were suspected of influencing TBC failure. The model showed that all the material properties studied had a significant effect on the coating's residual stresses if the interface of the bond coat was rough. Bond coat expansion, bond coat oxidation, and bond coat creep had the highest effect on coating stresses, and these were highly interactive. The model also showed that the mechanism of stress generation during thermal cycling changed with the number of thermal cycles. Bond coat and top coat creep dominated stress generation during early thermal cycles, greatly increasing delamination stresses at the peaks of the bond coat. Therefore, creep is the prime driver for delamination cracking early in life, but cracking is limited to the bond coat peak region. Oxidation of the bond coat, on the other hand, tended to dominate stress generation during later cycles by greatly increasing delamination stresses over bond coat valleys. These results indicate that oxidation is the driver for the continued cracking necessary to cause ceramic layer spallation.

Freborg, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution of wall conditions in utility boilers. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of a coal-fired utility boiler in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Steady Predictions - Part 1

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. Advanced numerical tools assume greater significance in supporting testing and design of high altitude testing facilities and plume induced testing environments of high thrust engines because of the greater inter-dependence and synergy in the functioning of the different sub-systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Facility designs in this case will require a complex network of diffuser ducts, steam ejector trains, fast operating valves, cooling water systems and flow diverters that need to be characterized for steady state performance. In this paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD analyses s advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in a sub-scale A-3 facility at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) where extensive testing was performed. Furthermore, the focus in this paper relates to modeling of critical sub-systems and components used in facilities such as the A-3 facility. The work here will address deficiencies in empirical models and current CFD analyses that are used for design of supersonic diffusers/turning vanes/ejectors as well as analyses for confined plumes and venting processes. The primary areas that will be addressed are: (1) supersonic diffuser performance including analyses of thermal loads (2) accurate shock capturing in the diffuser duct; (3) effect of turning duct on the performance of the facility (4) prediction of mass flow rates and performance classification for steam ejectors (5) comparisons with test data from sub-scale diffuser testing and assessment of confidence levels in CFD based flowpath modeling of the facility. The analyses tools used here expand on the multi-element unstructured CFD which has been tailored and validated for impingement dynamics of dry plumes, complex valve/feed systems, and high pressure propellant delivery systems used in engine and component test stands at NASA SSC. The analyses performed in the evaluation of the sub-scale diffuser facility explored several important factors that influence modeling and understanding of facility operation such as (a) importance of modeling the facility with Real Gas approximation, (b) approximating the cluster of steam ejector nozzles as a single annular nozzle, (c) existence of mixed subsonic/supersonic flow downstream of the turning duct, and (d) inadequacy of two-equation turbulence models in predicting the correct pressurization in the turning duct and expansion of the second stage steam ejectors. The procedure used for modeling the facility was as follows: (i) The engine, test cell and first stage ejectors were simulated with an axisymmetric approximation (ii) the turning duct, second stage ejectors and the piping downstream of the second stage ejectors were analyzed with a three-dimensional simulation utilizing a half-plane symmetry approximation. The solution i.e. primitive variables such as pressure, velocity components, temperature and turbulence quantities were passed from the first computational domain and specified as a supersonic boundary condition for the second simulation. (iii) The third domain comprised of the exit diffuser and the region in the vicinity of the facility (primary included to get the correct shock structure at the exit of the facility and entrainment characteristics). The first set of simulations comprising the engine, test cell and first stage ejectors was carried out both as a turbulent real gas calculation as well as a turbulent perfect gas calculation. A comparison for the two cases (Real Turbulent and Perfect gas turbulent) of the Ma Number distribution and temperature distributions are shown in Figures 1 and 2 respectively. The Mach Number distribution shows small yet distinct differences between the two cases such as locations of shocks/shock reflections and a slightly different impingement point on the wall of the diffuser from the expansion at the exit of the nozzle. Similarly the temperature distribution indicates different flow recirculation patterns in the test cell. Both cases capture all the essential flow phenomena such as the shock-boundary layer interaction, plume expansion, expansion of the first stage ejectors, mixing between the engine plume and the first stage ejector flow and pressurization due to the first stage ejectors. The final paper will discuss thermal loads on the walls of the diffuser and cooling mechanisms investigated.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗