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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ACCP Inclined Orbit Project: Enabling New and Synergistic Aerosol Remote Sensing Inversions

Atmospheric aerosols have high spatiotemporal variations due to their diverse sources including windblown dust, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic emissions. These aerosols also have strong diurnal emission characteristics that influence long-range transport, air quality, Earth’s radiation budget, biogeochemical cycles, and weather forecasting. While current sensors can measure the steady-state of global 3D cloud and aerosol properties, we lack the observational datasets to discover the diurnal variability of aerosols, even at seasonal and regional scales, because these missions utilize sun synchronous orbits. An Aerosols and Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) observing system has been established as part of NASA’s new Earth System Observatory (ESO) to fulfill the science needs presented in the 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. The selected ACCP architecture encompasses sensors in two orbit planes, one of which utilizes an inclined orbit (nominally ~55 degrees at a 407 km altitude) to advance our understanding of aerosol and cloud properties and target the dynamics of the cloud and aerosol processes on sub-daily time scales. The anticipated instrumentation suite for the ACCP Inclined Orbit Project is a Stereo Camera System, Polarimeter, Microwave Radiometer, Two-Frequency Radar, and Backscatter Lidar. The polarimeter is expected to have multiple wavelength bands and viewing angles to enable accurate retrievals of aerosol microphysical and optical properties. The backscatter lidar will provide vertical profiles of attenuated backscatter and depolarization ratio at two wavelengths, with better daytime signal-to-noise ratio than previous space-based lidar systems to improve aerosol detection/typing and estimates of aerosol optical properties. The stereo camera system, while designed primarily for clouds, will also provide aerosol plume heights and air motions at the plume heights. This invited presentation will provide (1) an overview of the ACCP Inclined Orbit Project, (2) a description of the new sensor capabilities and orbital characteristics, and (3) a preview of the potential for new synergistic aerosol inversion techniques.

John E Yorks↗
NASA NTRS2003

Helioseismic Observations of the Structure and Dynamics of a Rotating Sunspot Beneath the Solar Surface

Time-distance helioseismology is applied to study the subphotospheric structures and dynamics of an unusually fast-rotating sunspot observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager on bead SOH0 in 2000 August. The subsurface sound speed structures and velocity fields are obtained for the sunspot region at different depths from 0 to 12 Mm. By comparing the subsurface sound speed variations with the surface magnetic field, we find evidence for structural twists beneath the visible surface of this active region, which may indicate that magnetic twists often seen at the photosphere also exist beneath the photosphere. We also report on the observation of subsurface horizontal vortical flows that extend to a depth of 5 Mm around this rotating sunspot and present evidence that opposite vortical flows may exist below 9 Mm. It is suggested that the vortical flows around this active region may build up a significant amount of magnetic helicity and energy to power solar eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the error propagation, and in addition the sunspot umbra is masked to test the reliability of our inversion results. On the basis of the three-dimensional velocity fields obtained from the time-distance helioseismology inversions, we estimate the subsurface kinetic helicity at different depths for the first time and conclude that it is comparable to the current helicity estimated from vector magnetograms.

Zhao, Junwei↗
NASA NTRS1996

A New Method of Deriving Time-Averaged Tropospheric Column Ozone over the Tropics Using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Radiances: Intercomparison and Analysis Using TRACE A Data

Error analysis of archived total 03 from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) (version 6) presented. Daily total 03 maps for the tropics, from the period October 6-21, 1992, are derived from TOMS radiances following correction for these errors. These daily maps, averaged together, show a wavelike feature, which is observed in all latitude bands, underlying sharp peaks which occur at different longitudes depending on the latitude. The wave pattern is used to derive both time-averaged stratospheric and tropospheric 03 fields. The nature of the wave pattern (stratospheric or tropospheric) cannot be determined with certainty due to missing data (no Pacific sondes, no lower stratospheric Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) ozone for 18 months after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and significant uncertainties in the corroborative satellite record in the lower stratosphere (solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV), microwave limb sounder (MLS)). However, the time- averaged tropospheric ozone field, based on the assumption that the wave feature is stratospheric, agrees within 10% with ultraviolet differential absorption laser Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic) (TRACE A) 03 measurements from the DC-8 and with ozonesonde measurements over Brazzaville, Congo, Ascension Island, and Natal, Brazil, for the period October 6-21, 1992. The derived background (nonpolluted) Indian Ocean tropospheric ozone amount, 26 Dobson units (DU), agrees with the cleanest African ozonesonde profiles for September-October 1992. The assumption of a totally tropospheric wave (flat stratosphere) gives 38 DU above the western Indian Ocean and 15-40% disagreements with the sondes. Tropospheric column 03 is high from South America to Africa, owing to interaction of dynamics with biomass burning emissions. Comparison with fire distributions from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHHR) during October 1992 suggests that tropospheric 03 produced from biomass burning in South America and Africa dominates the 03 budget in the tropical southern hemisphere during the study period.

Kim, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Luminous blue variables at quiescence: The zone of avoidance in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram

Two phases of dynamical instability are theoretically predicted to exist during the evolution of supergiants of normal metallicity that are initially more massive than approximately 60 solar mass. One phase occurs briefly in the yellow or red region of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for stars in the early stages of core helium burning, and the other phase occurs for a longer time in the blue or blue-white region for stars exhausting their core helium. Probably only the second phase exists in the case of supergiants with initial masses between approximately 60 solar mass and approximately 30 solar mass or with low metallicities The cause of instability is the partial ionization of hydrogen and helium in a quasi-isolated outer region of the stellar envelope, above the layer where the iron opacity attains a large local maximum. Predicted luminosities, effective temperatures, ejected nebular masses, remnant masses, eruption recurrence times, and lifetimes, though very approximate, are generally consistent with available observational data for the important class of unstable supergiants known as luminous blue variables.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Geological and geophysical remote sensing of Iceland

The author has identified the following significant results. A binational, multidisciplinary research effort in Iceland is directed at an analysis of MSS imagery from ERTS-1 to study a variety of geologic, hydrologic, oceanographic, and agricultural phenomena. Initial findings are: (1) recent lava flows can be delineated from older ones; (2) ERTS-1 and NOAA-2 recorded volcanic eruptions on Heimaey, Vestmann Islands; (3) coastline changes are mappable; (4) areas covered with new or residual snow can be mapped, and dark appearance of newly fallen snow on band 7 appears to be related to melting; (5) sediment plumes from discharge of glacial rivers can be delineated; (6) the area encompassed by glacial ice can be mapped, including the new position of a surging glacier, Eyjabakkajokull, and related phenomena of nunataks and moraines; (7) changes in position of rivers, lake sizes, and new lakes can be mapped; (8) low sun angle imagery enhances the morphologic expression of constructional glacial and volcanic landforms; (9) MSS color composites permit regional mapping of distribution of vegetation; and (10) at least at 1:250, 000 map scale and smaller, ERTS-1 imagery provides a means of updating various types of maps of Iceland and will permit the compilation of maps specifically aimed at those dynamic environmental phenomena which impact on the Icelandic economy.

Williams, R. S., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Historical and Future Climate Change

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. The QBO can be seen in stratospheric zonal wind, temperature, and composition, but it also has a number of teleconnections—including to the polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Thus, its future trends will have a signature on the surface. Recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that a weakening of the QBO amplitude is very likely, but changes to QBO period and stability remain unclear, due in part to its highly parameterized nature. We investigate these aspects using multiple configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). As a high-top model with gravity wave drag partly sourced from (parameterized) convection, Model E2.2 includes key pathways for climate forcings to influence the QBO. Overall, both the period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO2, with convection feedbacks critical for the period response, and ozone feedbacks enhancing the amplitude response. We use these results to interpret QBO trends in the historical and SSP integrations. Lastly, we examine the effect of volcanic eruptions on the QBO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))

Abstract Simulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Multi-sensor Coordination: The Science Goal Monitor

Next-generation science and exploration systems will employ new observation strategies that will use multiple sensors in a dynamic environment to provide high quality monitoring, self-consistent analyses and informed decision making. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing of earth phenomenon. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe the dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify events of interest and how to react when an event is detected. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientist/user. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems Aqua/Terra spacecrafts MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM is being used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗
NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Multi-Sensor Coordination: The Science Goal Monitor

Many dramatic earth phenomena are dynamic and coupled. In order to fully understand them, we need to obtain timely coordinated multi-sensor observations from widely dispersed instruments. Such a dynamic observing system must include the ability to Schedule flexibly and react autonomously to sciencehser driven events; Understand higher-level goals of a sciencehser defined campaign; Coordinate various space-based and ground-based resources/sensors effectively and efficiently to achieve goals. In order to capture transient events, such a 'sensor web' system must have an automated reactive capability built into its scientific operations. To do this, we must overcome a number of challenges inherent in infusing autonomy. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify what to look for and how to react in descriptive rather than technical terms. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientisther. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users' desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems' Aqua/Terra spacecrafts' MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM was used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new Earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anisotropic Turbulent Flows Observed in Above-the-loop-top Regions during Solar Flares

Abstract Solar flare above-the-loop-top (ALT) regions are vital for understanding solar eruptions and fundamental processes in plasma physics. Recent advances in three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations have revealed unprecedented details on turbulent flows and MHD instabilities in flare ALT regions. Here, for the first time, we examine the observable anisotropic properties of turbulent flows in ALT by applying a flow-tracking algorithm on narrow-band extreme-ultraviolet images that are observed from the face-on viewing perspective. First, the results quantitatively confirm the previous observation that vertical motions dominate and that the anisotropic flows are widely distributed in the entire ALT region with the contribution from both upflows and downflows. Second, the anisotropy shows height-dependent features, with the most substantial anisotropy appearing at a certain middle height in ALT, which agrees well with the MHD modeling results where turbulent flows are caused by Rayleigh–Taylor-type instabilities in the ALT region. Finally, our finding suggests that supra-arcade downflows (SADs), the most prominently visible dynamical structures in ALT regions, are only one aspect of turbulent flows. Among these turbulent flows, we also report the antisunward-moving underdense flows that might develop due to MHD instabilities, as suggested by previous 3D flare models. Our results indicate that the entire flare fan displays group behavior of turbulent flows where the observational bright spikes and relatively dark SADs exhibit similar anisotropic characteristics.

Xie, Xiaoyan (ORCID:0009000705827807)↗
NASA NTRS1994

Aerosol-associated changes in tropical stratospheric ozone following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

The large amount of sulfuric acid aerosol formed in the stratosphere by conversion of sulfur dioxide emitted by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (15.14 deg N, 120.35 deg E) in the Philippines around June 15, 1991, has had a pronounced effect on lower stratospheric ozone in the tropics. Measurements of stratospheric ozone in the tropics using electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) sondes before and after the eruption and the airborne UV differential absorption lidar (DIAL) system after the eruption are compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) measurements from several years before the eruption and ECC sonde measurements from the year prior to the eruption to determine the resulting changes. Ozone decreases of up to 33 % compared with SAGE II climatological values were found to be directly correlated with altitude regions of enhanced aerosol loading in the 16- to 28-km range. A maximum partial-column decrease of 29 +/- Dobson units (DU) was found over the 16- to 28-km range in September 1991 along with small increases (to 5.9 +/- 2 DU) from 28 to 31.5 km. A large decrease of ozone was also found at 4 deg to 8 deg S from May to August 1992, with a maximum decrease of 33 +/- 7 DU found above Brazzaville in July. Aerosol data form the visible channel of the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the visible wavelength of the UV DIAL system were used to examine the relationship between aerosol (surface area) densities and ozone changes. The tropical stratospheric ozone changes we observed in 1991 and 1992 are likely be explained by a combination of dynamical (vertical transport) perturbations, radiative perturbations on ozone photochemistry, and heterogeneous chemistry.

Grant, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Coronal Transient Ejections and Outflows During the CR 2068 WHI Campaign

The Whole Heliospheric Interval (WHI) campaigns began with a set of coordinated observations over Carrington Rotation (CR) 2068, which was from March~20 to April~16, 2008. An ultimate objective of WHI to understand the 3-D nature of the heliosphere. Activity on the Sun is the engine that drives the dynamics of the heliosphere, and therefore delineation of the characteristics of the Sun's atmosphere and its output over the period of study is vital to the success of WHI\@. Here we discuss the origins of solar structures that can lead to heliospheric effects, with an emphasis on observations during the CR~2068 WHI interval. These structures include both outflows from open-field regions, and transients originating from closed-field regions. Our focus will be mainly on the latter, and we will specifically consider the coronal source regions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and other transients that escape out into the heliosphere, for example in the form of slow expansions or as narrow jets. Over the CR~2068 period we have identified about 30 such transients, with about 20\% of them being moderately to very prominent. We will consider these feature s source regions by examining low-coronal data, along with solar surface magnetograms that provide the magnetic setting of the eruptions. Through intercomparisons of these data, we infer the coronal setup for different eruptions, and the implications for models that attempt to describe eruption-onset mechanisms.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd Isotopic Studies of Lunar Green and Orange Glasses

Lunar volcanic glassy beads have been considered as quenched basaltic magmas derived directly from deep lunar mantle during fire-fountaining eruptions [1]. Since these sub-mm size glassy melt droplets were cooled in a hot gaseous medium during free flight [2], they have not been subject to mineral fractionations. Thus, they represent primary magmas and are the best samples for the investigation of the lunar mantle. Previously, we presented preliminary Rb- Sr and Sm-Nd isotopic results for green and orange glassy samples from green glass clod 15426,63 and orange soil 74220,44, respectively [3]. Using these isotopic data, initial Sr-87/Sr-86 and Nd ratios for these pristine mare glass sources can be calculated from their respective crystallization ages previously determined by other age-dating techniques. These isotopic data were used to evaluate the mineralogy of the mantle sources. In this report, we analyzed additional glassy samples in order to further characterize isotopic signatures of their source regions. Also, we'll postulate a relationship between these two major mare basalt source mineralogies in the context of lunar magma ocean dynamics.

Shih, C.-Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SAGE III/ISS Rapid Data Analysis Through Dashboarding with Jupyter Notebooks

Spaceborne remote sensing observations of Earth’s atmosphere produce significant quantities of data over the life of each mission. In the case of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) nearly four years of vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, and nitrogen dioxide concentrations as well as aerosol extinction coefficients have been released. The dichotomy of the desire for both long-term trends in the atmospheric state alongside the assessment of short-term impacts of major disruptive events such as volcanic eruptions and pyrocumulus injections requires agile tools to handle these cases in near real-time as new data are produced. The analysis landscape is further complicated by the desire to compare results between the numerous contemporary observations available for a given dataset. The SAGE III/ISS team has developed a suite of tools leveraging modern web-based frameworks allowing members to interact with a dashboard-style interface to load the data record, assess new profiles as they are generated and in ensemble, compare between species, and additionally add in measurements observed by other platforms as necessary. Leveraging a commonly packaged data format of NetCDF alongside the Python Jupyter Notebook framework, the data can be served to interested parties from an analysis server while still runnable on personal systems if required. This presentation illustrates the ecosystem developed by the SAGE III/ISS team, the applicability to measurements made by any limb-observing platform, and the benefit to transforming routine analyses into readily accessible dynamic plots. Frameworks currently exist at larger scales with projects such as GIOVANNI, and this illustration seeks to show that similar frameworks are accessible and possible within the local research environment while simultaneously unloading human processing cycles for more specialized analysis tasks.

Dashboarding↗
NASA NTRS1973

Satellite geological and geophysical remote sensing of Iceland

The author has identified the following significant results. Under a binational, multidisciplinary experiment ERTS-1 imagery is being used to measure and map dynamic natural phenomena in Iceland. A few of the initial results from the project are: (1) a large variety of geological and volcanic features can be studied, particularly on imagery acquired at low sun angle ( 10 deg), which have not been previously recognized; (2) under optimum snow cover conditions, geothermal areas can be discerned by their snowmelt pattern or by warm spring discharge into frozen lakes; (3) a variety of map types at scale of 1:1,000,000 and 1:500,000, can be compiled, made more accurate, or updated (changes in coastline, glaciers, lakes, etc.); (4) the persistence of snow in the highland areas, during the summer months, has important ramifications to rangeland management; (5) false color composites (MSS) permitted the mapping of four types of vegetation; forested, reclaimed, cultivated areas and grasslands, and the mapping of the seasonal change of the vegetation, all of high value to rangeland management when complete, repetitive coverage of Iceland becomes a reality with an operational satellite; and (6) the volcanic eruption on Heimaey was recorded.

Williams, R. S., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Report on New Mission Concept Study: Stereo X-Ray Corona Imager Mission

Studies of the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of the solar corona have been severely limited by the constraint of single viewpoint observations. The Stereo X-Ray Coronal Imager (SXCI) mission will send a single instrument, an X-ray telescope, into deep space expressly to record stereoscopic images of the solar corona. The SXCI spacecraft will be inserted into a approximately 1 AU heliocentric orbit leading Earth by approximately 25 deg at the end of nine months. The SXCI X-ray telescope forms one element of a stereo pair, the second element being an identical X-ray telescope in Earth orbit placed there as part of the NOAA GOES program. X-ray emission is a powerful diagnostic of the corona and its magnetic fields, and three dimensional information on the coronal magnetic structure would be obtained by combining the data from the two X-ray telescopes. This information can be used to address the major solar physics questions of (1) what causes explosive coronal events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), eruptive flares and prominence eruptions and (2) what causes the transient heating of coronal loops. Stereoscopic views of the optically thin corona will resolve some ambiguities inherent in single line-of-sight observations. Triangulation gives 3D solar coordinates of features which can be seen in the simultaneous images from both telescopes. As part of this study, tools were developed for determining the 3D geometry of coronal features using triangulation. Advanced technologies for visualization and analysis of stereo images were tested. Results of mission and spacecraft studies are also reported.

Liewer, Paulett C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints

Abstract Dimension reduction techniques are an essential part of the climate analyst’s toolkit. Due to the enormous scale of climate data, dimension reduction methods are used to identify major patterns of variability within climate dynamics, to create compelling and informative visualizations, and to quantify major named modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Principal components analysis (PCA), also known as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), is the most commonly used form of dimension reduction, characterized by a remarkable confluence of attractive mathematical, statistical, and computational properties. Despite its ubiquity, PCA suffers from several difficulties relevant to climate science: high computational burden with large datasets, decreased statistical accuracy in high dimensions, and difficulties comparing across multiple datasets. In this paper, we introduce several variants of PCA that are likely to be of use in climate sciences and address these problems. Specifically, we introduce non-negative , sparse , and tensor PCA and demonstrate how each approach provides superior pattern recognition in climate data. We also discuss approaches to comparing PCA-family results within and across datasets in a domain-relevant manner. We demonstrate these approaches through an analysis of several runs of the E3SM climate model from 1991 to 1995, focusing on the simulated response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption; our findings are consistent with a recently identified stratospheric warming fingerprint associated with this type of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Weylandt, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Latitude Dependence of the Effect of Pinatubo on Stratospheric Ozone

Statistical analysis of TOMS and SBLT total ozone data indicate that the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 led to a significant decrease in ozone at northern midlatitudes with little or no effect at southern midlatitudes. We argue that this puzzling absence of a southern hemisphere effect may be an artifact of the statistical analysis. We have run a 3D CTM simulation of the past 30 years of stratospheric photochemistry with variable forcing due to chlorine/bromine compounds, solar ultraviolet radiation, and volcanic aerosols. This integration used winds from the FVGCM, which has similar interannual variability to the atmosphere. When this CTM output was examined with a standard time-series analysis, we found an effect of Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere, but not in the northern hemisphere. We then reran the CTM without volcanic aerosols. The subtraction of the two simulations indicated that, as expected, that Pinatubo affected both hemispheres in the model. This means that the northern hemisphere effect was in the model but did not show up in the statistical analysis. We also had an on-line parameterized chemical ozone tracer with seasonally repeating production and loss over the simulation. We used this as a dynamical surrogate to remove interannual variability from the original model output. The residual time series was then analyzed for the Pinatubo effect and we were able to find it in both hemispheres. We suggest that the combination of the two volcanoes, El Chichon and Pinatubo, with the solar cycle and interannual variability led to this problem of analysis in the northern hemisphere of our model. We furthermore suggest that a similar think may be occurring in the southern hemisphere of the data. An analysis of the atmosphere's southern hemisphere with a good dynamical surrogate may solve the mystery of the missing southern hemisphere effect of Pinatubo on ozone.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗