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NASA NTRS2004

Reducing the Time and Cost of Testing Engines

Producing a new aircraft engine currently costs approximately $1 billion, with 3 years of development time for a commercial engine and 10 years for a military engine. The high development time and cost make it extremely difficult to transition advanced technologies for cleaner, quieter, and more efficient new engines. To reduce this time and cost, NASA created a vision for the future where designers would use high-fidelity computer simulations early in the design process in order to resolve critical design issues before building the expensive engine hardware. To accomplish this vision, NASA's Glenn Research Center initiated a collaborative effort with the aerospace industry and academia to develop its Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), an advanced engineering environment for the analysis and design of aerospace propulsion systems and components. Partners estimate that using NPSS has the potential to dramatically reduce the time, effort, and expense necessary to design and test jet engines by generating sophisticated computer simulations of an aerospace object or system. These simulations will permit an engineer to test various design options without having to conduct costly and time-consuming real-life tests. By accelerating and streamlining the engine system design analysis and test phases, NPSS facilitates bringing the final product to market faster. NASA's NPSS Version (V)1.X effort was a task within the Agency s Computational Aerospace Sciences project of the High Performance Computing and Communication program, which had a mission to accelerate the availability of high-performance computing hardware and software to the U.S. aerospace community for its use in design processes. The technology brings value back to NASA by improving methods of analyzing and testing space transportation components.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

The 0.8 day orbit of the precataclysmic binary EUVE J1016-053

The optical counterpart of the new extreme ultraviolet source EUVE J1016-053 (=RE 1016-053) is known to show intermittent sharp Balmer and HE I emission and traces of an M dwarf associated with a white dwarf optical spectrum. We present extensive optical spectroscopy showing the emission lines vary in velocity and intensity on a period of 0d.78929 +/- 0d.00003. The phase of the emission-line strengths lags that of the velocities by 0.237 +/- 0.013 cycle, consistent with the quarter-cycle offset expected if emission arises from the side of the secondary facing the hot white dwarf. EUVE J1016-053 is another example of an extreme ultraviolet illumination-effect binary, which only recently emerged from a common-envelope phase of binary evolution. Based on spectroscopic measurements and new BVR photometry, we find that the M dwarf secondary's contribution to the combined light is smaller than previously reported, probably because of the difficulty of avoiding contamination from a third star 3".2 distant. The velocity of the weak H II absorption is in antiphase to the emission, suggesting that it originates in the white dwarf photosphere. The mass function implied by the emission-line motion is f(M) = 0.28 +/- 0.08 M solar. Assuming the He II absorption does follow the white dwarf, the mass ratio MWD/MdM is 1.8 +/- 0.5, and the gravitational redshift is 45 +/- 14 km s-1. The modulation of the emission lines suggests the inclination i > 40 degrees, but plausible masses demand this inclination be well above the value.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Cool Flames Experiment

A space-based experiment is currently under development to study diffusion-controlled, gas-phase, low temperature oxidation reactions, cool flames and auto-ignition in an unstirred, static reactor. At Earth's gravity (1g), natural convection due to self-heating during the course of slow reaction dominates diffusive transport and produces spatio-temporal variations in the thermal and thus species concentration profiles via the Arrhenius temperature dependence of the reaction rates. Natural convection is important in all terrestrial cool flame and auto-ignition studies, except for select low pressure, highly dilute (small temperature excess) studies in small vessels (i.e., small Rayleigh number). On Earth, natural convection occurs when the Rayleigh number (Ra) exceeds a critical value of approximately 600. Typical values of the Ra, associated with cool flames and auto-ignitions, range from 104-105 (or larger), a regime where both natural convection and conduction heat transport are important. When natural convection occurs, it alters the temperature, hydrodynamic, and species concentration fields, thus generating a multi-dimensional field that is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be modeled analytically. This point has been emphasized recently by Kagan and co-workers who have shown that explosion limits can shift depending on the characteristic length scale associated with the natural convection. Moreover, natural convection in unstirred reactors is never "sufficiently strong to generate a spatially uniform temperature distribution throughout the reacting gas." Thus, an unstirred, nonisothermal reaction on Earth does not reduce to that generated in a mechanically, well-stirred system. Interestingly, however, thermal ignition theories and thermokinetic models neglect natural convection and assume a heat transfer correlation of the form: q=h(S/V)(T(bar) - Tw) where q is the heat loss per unit volume, h is the heat transfer coefficient, S/V is the surface to volume ratio, and (T(bar) - Tw ) is the spatially averaged temperature excess. This Newtonian form has been validated in spatially-uniform, well-stirred reactors, provided the effective heat transfer coefficient associated with the unsteady process is properly evaluated. Unfortunately, it is not a valid assumption for spatially-nonuniform temperature distributions induced by natural convection in unstirred reactors. "This is why the analysis of such a system is so difficult." Historically, the complexities associated with natural convection were perhaps recognized as early as 1938 when thermal ignition theory was first developed. In the 1955 text "Diffusion and Heat Exchange in Chemical Kinetics", Frank-Kamenetskii recognized that "the purely conductive theory can be applied at sufficiently low pressure and small dimensions of the vessel when the influence of natural convection can be disregarded." This was reiterated by Tyler in 1966 and further emphasized by Barnard and Harwood in 1974. Specifically, they state: "It is generally assumed that heat losses are purely conductive. While this may be valid for certain low pressure slow combustion regimes, it is unlikely to be true for the cool flame and ignition regimes." While this statement is true for terrestrial experiments, the purely conductive heat transport assumption is valid at microgravity (mu-g). Specifically, buoyant complexities are suppressed at mu-g and the reaction-diffusion structure associated with low temperature oxidation reactions, cool flames and auto-ignitions can be studied. Without natural convection, the system is simpler, does not require determination of the effective heat transfer coefficient, and is a testbed for analytic and numerical models that assume pure diffusive transport. In addition, mu-g experiments will provide baseline data that will improve our understanding of the effects of natural convection on Earth.

Pearlman, Howard↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Recent History of Large-Scale Ecosystem Disturbances in North America Derived from the AVHRR Satellite Record

Ecosystem structure and function are strongly impacted by disturbance events, many of which in North America are associated with seasonal temperature extremes, wildfires, and tropical storms. This study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major ecosystem disturbance events and regimes. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide has been computed at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 2000 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 8-km globally. Potential disturbance events were identified in the FPAR time series by locating anomalously low values (FPAR-LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 8-km pixel. We can find verifiable evidence of numerous disturbance types across North America, including major regional patterns of cold and heat waves, forest fires, tropical storms, and large-scale forest logging. Summed over 19 years, areas potentially influenced by major ecosystem disturbances (one FPAR-LO event over the period 1982-2000) total to more than 766,000 km2. The periods of highest detection frequency were 1987-1989, 1995-1997, and 1999. Sub- continental regions of Alaska and Central Canada had the highest proportion (greater than 90%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in forests, tundra shrublands, and wetland areas. The Great Lakes region showed the highest proportion (39%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in cropland areas, whereas the western United States showed the highest proportion (16%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in grassland areas. Based on this analysis, an historical picture is emerging of periodic droughts and heat waves, possibly coupled with herbivorous insect outbreaks, as among the most important causes of ecosystem disturbance in North America.

Potter, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2021

The First Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed By Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involved.

A Kollhoff↗

NASA NTRS1992

Large scale crystallization of protein pharmaceuticals in microgravity via temperature change

The major objective of this research effort is the temperature driven growth of protein crystals in large batches in the microgravity environment of space. Pharmaceutical houses are developing protein products for patient care, for example, human insulin, human growth hormone, interferons, and tissue plasminogen activator or TPA, the clot buster for heart attack victims. Except for insulin, these are very high value products; they are extremely potent in small quantities and have a great value per gram of material. It is feasible that microgravity crystallization can be a cost recoverable, economically sound final processing step in their manufacture. Large scale protein crystal growth in microgravity has significant advantages from the basic science and the applied science standpoints. Crystal growth can proceed unhindered due to lack of surface effects. Dynamic control is possible and relatively easy. The method has the potential to yield large quantities of pure crystalline product. Crystallization is a time honored procedure for purifying organic materials and microgravity crystallization could be the final step to remove trace impurities from high value protein pharmaceuticals. In addition, microgravity grown crystals could be the final formulation for those medicines that need to be administered in a timed release fashion. Long lasting insulin, insulin lente, is such a product. Also crystalline protein pharmaceuticals are more stable for long-term storage. Temperature, as the initiation step, has certain advantages. Again, dynamic control of the crystallization process is possible and easy. A temperature step is non-invasive and is the most subtle way to control protein solubility and therefore crystallization. Seeding is not necessary. Changes in protein and precipitant concentrations and pH are not necessary. Finally, this method represents a new way to crystallize proteins in space that takes advantage of the unique microgravity environment. The results from two flights showed that the hardware performed perfectly, many crystals were produced, and they were much larger than their ground grown controls. Morphometric analysis was done on over 4,000 crystals to establish crystal size, size distribution, and relative size. Space grown crystals were remarkably larger than their earth grown counterparts and crystal size was a function of PCF volume. That size distribution for the space grown crystals was a function of PCF volume may indicate that ultimate size was a function of temperature gradient. Since the insulin protein concentration was very low, 0.4 mg/ml, the size distribution could also be following the total amount of protein in each of the PCF's. X-ray analysis showed that the bigger space grown insulin crystals diffracted to higher resolution than their ground grown controls. When the data were normalized for size, they still indicated that the space crystals were better than the ground crystals.

Long, Marianna M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Detailed Design of an Earth Entry Vehicle for Comet Surface Sample Return

The 2013 Decadal Survey for New Frontiers missions identifies several high-value science missions, including Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR). A CSSR mission will advance the scientific community's fundamental understanding of the origin of the solar system and the contribution of comets to the volatile inventory of the Earth. An entry capsule, or earth entry vehicle (EEV), is be required to protect the scientific payload from the extreme conditions of atmospheric entry, descent, and landing. The Decadal Survey Mission Concept Study along with an APL (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab) 2007-2008 Comet Surface Sample Mission Study details several of the driving requirements for a CSSR EEV; these include a payload volume and mass and inertial entry velocity of 9 kilometers per second. The mission concept study selected a Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) design concept derived from the Mars Sample Return (MSR) entry capsule design because of its increased reliability over a parachute-based vehicle. This presentation will explore detailed design of a CSSR-capable Earth Entry Vehicle, including trajectories, aeroheating predictions and associated thermal protection system masses, and onboard instrumentation for entry science.

Trajectory Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fission Product Quantification and Burnup Analysis via Gamma Spectrometry of the AGR-5/6/7 TRISO Fuel Experiment

Five capsules containing varying configurations of TRISO fuel compacts were irradiated in the most recent Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO test campaign, AGR-5/6/7. As part of the post-irradiation examination (PIE) of this work all the fuel compacts and capsule graphite holders were measured with the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) to determine isotopic activities and locations using gamma spectrometry. Measuring the compacts allowed for the comparison of physics model depletion calculations with the measured compact activity to validate models. These measurements also are used to find compacts of interest with low fission product retention that may be tested in subsequent PIE. Measurements of the holders can confirm fission product distribution and migration. Of the isotopes measured, Cs-137 and Cs-134 were used to estimate location of failed particles as well as determine a measured burnup estimation. Results from Capsule 1 compacts and the holder indicate many fuel particle failures occurred. There are high amounts of cesium in the holder near Stack 9 of Capsule 1 that corresponds to low fractions?measured-to-calculated (M/C) ratio?of cesium remaining in those compacts. All other capsules had cesium retention ratios near 1. The isotope 110mAg had less consistent results. Capsule 2 compacts exhibited a M/C of 0.20, much lower than anticipated for the temperatures these compacts underwent. Capsule 3 experienced much higher temperatures, >1300C and had an average M/C of 0.75. These are the opposite results than what was predicted by past AGR experiments for the relationship between temperature and isotope retention. Capsule 4 and 5 showed good fission product retention and agreement with the physics model predictions. The burnup results from the PGS measurements showed strong agreement between the physics models and the measured values. Using a ratio of Cs-134/Cs-137 to calculate the burnup match closely with the physics models. Additionally, the Cs-137 burnup results were less accurate but extremely close to the model results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Dissecting the EUV spectrum of Capella

Extreme ultraviolet spectra of Capella, obtained at various orbital phases over the past two years by the EUVE satellite, show strong emission lines from a continuous distribution of temperatures (approximately 10(exp 5 -10(exp 7.3) K). In addition to the strong He II lambda 303.8, the spectra are dominated by emission lines of highly ionized iron. Strong lines of Fe IX, XV, XVI, and XVIII-XXIV are used to construct emission measure distributions for the individual pointings, which show several striking features, including a minimum near 10(exp 6) K and a local maximum at 10(exp 6.8) K. Furthermore, intensities of the highest temperature lines (Te is greater than 10(exp 7) K) show variations (factors of 2-3) at different orbital phases, while the lower temperature Fe lines show variations of about 30% or less. The low variability of most of the strong low temperature features motivates a detailed analysis of the summed spectrum. With approximately 280 ksec of total exposure time, we have measured over 200 emission features with S/N greater than or equal to 3.0 in the summed spectrum. We report here initial results from the analysis of this spectrum. We can now identify lines of Fe VIII and X-XIV, as well as a number of electron density and abundance diagnostic lines. We also report here the first direct measurement of the continuum flux around approximately 100 A in a cool star atmosphere with EUVE. The continuum flux can be predicted from the emission measure model based on Fe line emission, and demonstrates that the Fe/H abundance ratio is dose to the solar photospheric value.

Brickhouse, Nancy S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

NASA NTRS2011

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1995

Solar cell angle of incidence corrections

Literature on solar array angle of incidence corrections was found to be sparse and contained no tabular data for support. This lack along with recent data on 27 GaAs/Ge 4 cm by 4 cm cells initiated the analysis presented in this paper. The literature cites seven possible contributors to angle of incidence effects: cosine, optical front surface, edge, shadowing, UV degradation, particulate soiling, and background color. Only the first three are covered in this paper due to lack of sufficient data. The cosine correction is commonly used but is not sufficient when the incident angle is large. Fresnel reflection calculations require knowledge of the index of refraction of the coverglass front surface. The absolute index of refraction for the coverglass front surface was not known nor was it measured due to lack of funds. However, a value for the index of refraction was obtained by examining how the prediction errors varied with different assumed indices and selecting the best fit to the set of measured values. Corrections using front surface Fresnel reflection along with the cosine correction give very good predictive results when compared to measured data, except there is a definite trend away from predicted values at the larger incident angles. This trend could be related to edge effects and is illustrated by a use of a box plot of the errors and by plotting the deviation of the mean against incidence angle. The trend is for larger deviations at larger incidence angles and there may be a fourth order effect involved in the trend. A chi-squared test was used to determine if the measurement errors were normally distributed. At 10 degrees the chi-squared test failed, probably due to the very small numbers involved or a bias from the measurement procedure. All other angles showed a good fit to the normal distribution with increasing goodness-of-fit as the angles increased which reinforces the very small numbers hypothesis. The contributed data only went to 65 degrees from normal which prevented any firm conclusions about extreme angle effects although a trend in the right direction was seen. Measurement errors were estimated and found to be consistent with the conclusions that were drawn. A controlled experiment using coverglasses and cells from the same lots and extending to larger incidence angles would probably lead to further insight into the subject area.

Burger, Dale R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMB-S4: Foreground-cleaning Pipeline Comparison for Measuring Primordial Gravitational Waves

We compare multiple foreground-cleaning pipelines for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, using simulated maps of the planned CMB-S4 experiment within the context of the South Pole Deep Patch. To evaluate robustness, we analyze bias and uncertainty on r across various foreground suites using map-based simulations. The foreground-cleaning methods include: a parametric maximum likelihood approach applied to auto- and cross-power spectra between frequency maps; a map-based parametric maximum-likelihood method; and a harmonic-space internal linear combination using frequency maps. We summarize the conceptual basis of each method to highlight their similarities and differences. To better probe the impact of foreground residuals, we implement an iterative internal delensing step, leveraging a map-based pipeline to generate a lensing B-mode template from the large aperture telescope frequency maps. Our results show that the performance of the three approaches is comparable for simple and intermediate-complexity foregrounds, with σ(r) ranging from 3–5 ×10 −4 . However, biases at the 1σ–2σ level appear when analyzing more complex forms of foreground emission. By extending the baseline pipelines to marginalize over foreground residuals, we demonstrate that contamination can be reduced to within statistical uncertainties, albeit with a pipeline-dependent impact on σ(r), which translates to a detection significance between 2σ and 4σ for an input value of r = 0.003. These findings suggest varying levels of maturity among the tested pipelines, with the auto- and cross-spectra-based approach demonstrating the best stability and overall performance. Moreover, given the extremely low noise levels, mutual validation of independent foreground-cleaning pipelines is essential to ensure the robustness of any potential detection.

astronomy data analysis↗

NASA NTRS1997

Carbon in the Former Soviet Union: The Current Balance

This work has been carried out in a period of great changes in Russia that have brought extreme hardships to the scientific community. We have been fortunate in establishing excellent relationships with the Russian scientific community and believe we have helped to retain coherence in circumstances where the continuation of research was in doubt. We have learned much and have been effective in advancing, even establishing, scholars and programs in Russia that might not otherwise have survived the transition. The vigor of the International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) is one sign of the value and success of these activities. Largely due to the current political and economic transitions in the former Soviet Union, the forests of much of the FSU are under reduced logging pressure. In addition, there is a decline in air pollution as heavy industry has waned, at least for now. Russian forestry statistics and our personal experience indicate a decline, perhaps as high as 60%, in forest harvesting over the last few years. But, new international market pressures on the forests exist in European Russia and in the Far East. The central government, still the "owner" of Russian forests, is having difficulty maintaining control over forest use and management particularly in the Far East and among the southern territories that have large, nonRussian ethnic populations. Extraordinarily large areas of mixed forest and grasslands, sparse or open forests, and mixed forests and tundra must be considered when calculating forest area It is insufficient to think of Russia as simply forest and nonforest Forest productivity, measured as growth of timber, appears to be in decline in all areas of Russia except in European Russia. Most information and publications on the recent history of these forests is heavily dependent on statistical data from the Soviet era. The interpretation of these data is very much open to debate. Anatoly Shwidenko, a long term collaborator and former senior scientist (mensuration) for the Soviet Committee on Forests, now a scholar at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, has provided abundant contributions from the data available to him and from his experience. Forest stand carbon is concentrated in the Russian Far East (i.e. Primorski Kray), Central-Southern Siberia and European Russia But, soil carbon can be 10 times forest stand C. Our efforts in mapping the area and changes in area (as well as the internal structure) of forests have made major contributions to our joint understanding of the scale and status of these forests. To realize the importance of this contribution one needs only to recognize that any large scale Soviet-era maps of the area did not include latitude and longitude. Even today, there is great reluctance to provide these data, the basis of any GIS.

Woodwell, G. M.↗