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Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Mitigating electrochemical degradation in CsPbBr{sub 3} gamma detectors by organic and inorganic encapsulation.

CsPbBr3 perovskite semiconductors have emerged as a leading candidate for nextgeneration radiation detectors because of their exceptional charge transport properties, defect tolerance, and record-breaking sensitivity and energy resolution. Their long-term stability, however, is hindered by electrode-driven electrochemical decomposition, which is accelerated by moisture- and oxygen-assisted ion migration during operation. Here, we investigated organic and inorganic encapsulation strategies as both environmental barriers and means to suppress interfacial degradation pathways. Atomic layer deposition (ALD) of Al2O3 provided a conformal passivation layer that blocked environmental ingress, suppressed ionic diffusion, reduced leakage current, enhanced energy resolution and expanded the operational electric-field window beyond 5 kV∙cm1 . By contrast, organic encapsulants such as paraffin wax and polystyrene slowed moisture diffusion but did not suppress interfacial reactions, with wax extending stability to over 90 days. These results show that ALD-Al2O3 suppresses dominant interfacial degradation pathways, enabling stable, high-field operation and advancing the practical deployment of CsPbBr3 γ-ray detectors.

Unal, Mustafa

Considerations for Maritime Nuclear Technologies, Economic Viability and Public Acceptance

The Maritime Nuclear Application Group (MNAG) is a working group convened by the National Reactor Innovation Center at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the American Bureau of Shipping, and Morgan, Lewis, and Bockius LLP. This report documents an MNAG examination of considerations relevant to implementing nuclear technology in commercial maritime applications. In general, two types of use case are examined: maritime nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors used on board shipping vessels for propulsion and other ship needs. The report finds that there may be economic benefits related to maritime nuclear technologies, including the flexible deployment of maritime nuclear reactors, which would allow them to complement land-based nuclear projects, and operational differences for nuclear cargo ships that may lead to an overall increase in revenue. High-level analyses in this report show that, based on general small modular reactor and microreactor cost estimates developed by INL, maritime nuclear reactors may be economically competitive for electricity production in remote regions and for use in the propulsion of large cargo ships. Besides economic viability, public acceptance will be key to implementing maritime nuclear technologies. The report discusses the public’s current perception of nuclear technologies. Engaging with the public will be important to improving this perception. The report discusses some key benefits and risks associated with maritime nuclear technologies. Benefits include the creation of jobs, the production of reliable energy, and the potential to improve air quality. Risks that concern the public are the potential for radioactive releases during operation and decommissioning, as well as those related to waste management. Communicating the benefits and the risks of maritime nuclear technologies will be essential to improving public perception.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Development of Ternary Transition Metal Oxide Catalysts for Oxygen Evolution Reaction

Electrochemical water splitting, a promising method for green hydrogen production, is currently hindered by the high cost of precious-group metal (PGM)-based catalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). This study addresses this challenge by advancing the development of catalysts for OER, focusing on the development of high-performance PGM-free catalysts using nickel-iron-cobalt (NiFeCo)-based aerogels. The catalysts were synthesized via a sol-gel method and critical point drying to achieve a highly porous structure with an exceptionally high surface area. The designed catalyst structure provides an ideal platform for maximizing catalytic active sites and enhancing mass transport kinetics. Co has been systematically incorporated into the current PGM-free state-of-the-art, NiFeOx catalyst, and the metal ratios have been optimized. In addition to the experimental studies, density functional theory calculations were performed to study the material’s properties of this ternary catalyst and the effect of Co addition on enhancing OER catalysis.

Mizrahi, Michal [Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, I

The U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap: Near-term research priorities for the development of plasma-facing and structural materials for fusion power plants

In response to the needs of a rapidly growing private fusion industry, the U.S. Fusion Materials Coordinating Committee (FMCC) and the broader U.S. fusion materials research community undertook an extensive effort to create a comprehensive roadmap for fusion materials development. The result of this effort was the U.S. Fusion Materials Community Roadmap (US-FMCR), which describes the steps needed to advance the technical maturity of leading candidates for plasma-facing materials and structural materials for fusion power plants from laboratory-scale experiments to a point of sufficient technological readiness for industrial adoption and implementation. However, researchers face significant resource constraints as well as very aggressive pilot plant development timelines. Thus, the research strategies detailed in the US-FMCR require further assessment to downselect the specific tasks that must be prioritized within the next two to three years, in order to make the most efficient use of funding, human resources, and experimental facilities. This paper presents an overview of the US-FMCR and its development process. We also present the subset of research objectives that the FMCC identified as the most urgent research priorities for the U.S. fusion materials research community. The state-of-the-art of materials research is also highlighted for each class of materials considered in the US-FMCR. The recommendations presented here integrate an extensive evaluation of the current status of fusion materials research with a broad cross-section of opinion from the wider U.S. fusion community.

Ferry, Sara [Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Imprints of High-Density Nuclear Symmetry Energy on Crustal Fraction of Neutron Star Moment of Inertia

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) remains the most uncertain aspect of the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nucleonic matter. Utilizing an isospin-dependent parameterization of the nuclear EOS, we investigate the implications of the observational crustal fraction of the neutron star (NS) moment of inertia ΔI/I for the E sym (ρ). We find that symmetry energy parameters significantly influence the ΔI/I, while the EOS of symmetric nuclear matter has a negligible effect. In particular, an increase in the slope L and skewness J sym of symmetry energy results in a larger ΔI/I, whereas an increase in the curvature K sym leads to a reduction in ΔI/I. Moreover, the ΔI/I is shown to have the potential for setting a lower limit of symmetry energy at densities exceeding 3 ρ 0 , particularly when L is constrained to values less than 60 MeV, thereby enhancing our understanding of supradense NS matter.

equation of state

Propane Activation on Pt Electrodes at Room Temperature: Quantification of Adsorbate Identity and Coverage

Abstract C−H bond activation is the first step in manufacturing chemical products from readily available light alkane feedstock and typically proceeds via carbon‐intensive thermal processes. The ongoing emphasis on decarbonization via electrification motivates low‐temperature electrochemical alternatives that could lead to sustainable chemicals production. Platinum (Pt) electrocatalysts have shown activity towards reacting alkanes; however, little is known about propane electrocatalytic activation and conditions suitable for enabling selective oxidation to valuable products. Herein, we utilize a combination of electrochemical mass spectrometry (ECMS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to elucidate the potential dependence of propane activation on Pt electrocatalysts. Results show a strong dependence of adsorption on the applied potential in room‐temperature aqueous acidic electrolyte, with a maximum coverage of propane‐derived adsorbates at 0.30 V vs RHE. Using charge deconvolution and deuterated experiments, the mechanism of adsorption was elucidated, and C 3 H 2 * was determined as the average dehydrogenated propane‐derived adsorbate species. DFT calculations further corroborate these results, showing that the formation of deeply dehydrogenated species is energetically accessible at room temperature. The combined theoretical and experimental findings yield insights for selective activation of paraffinic C−H bonds at room temperature, aqueous conditions—a critical step towards decarbonized chemical manufacturing.

Chemistry

Solar Array Arcing in Plasmas

Solar cells in space plasma conditions are known to arc into the plasma when the interconnects are at a negative potential of a few hundred volts, relative to plasma potential. For cells with silver-coated interconnects, a threshold voltage for arcing exists at about -230 V, as found in both ground and LEO experiments. The arc rate beyond the threshold voltage depends nearly linearly on plasma density, but has a strong power-law dependence on voltage, such that for small increments in operating voltage there is a large increment in arc rate. The arcs generate broadband radio interference and visible light. In ground tests, interconnects have been damaged by arcs in cells having insufficient isolation from a source of high current. Models for the arcs are highly dependent on the choice of interconnect conductor material exposed to the plasma and possibly on the geometry and choice of adjacent insulator material. Finally, new technology solar cells use copper for the cell interconnects, a material which may have a lower arcing threshold voltage than silver. It is expected, from ground tests of simulated solar cells, that any junction of conductor and insulator exposed to space plasma conditions will arc into the plasma at a few hundred volts negative potential, relative to the local plasma.

Dale C Ferguson

The Reaction of Atomic Hydrogen with an Imine: Direct Kinetic Measurements and Computational Studies

Imines are of interest in the combustion modeling of nitrogen-based fuels such as ammonia, as intermediates in atmospheric oxidation of amines, and may offer a new class of environmentally benign substitutes for perhalogenated reagents. Elementary gas-phase rate constants for the consumption of H atoms by 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanimine were measured over 294–736 K using the laser flash photolysis/atomic resonance fluorescence technique. The results are summarized as 3.0 × 10 –11 exp(−14.5 kJ mol –1 /RT) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 with a confidence interval of ±13%. These are the first temperature-dependent kinetic experiments on an imine of the form R 2 C═NH and thereby provide the only validation of transition-state modeling for such systems. Several pathways are feasible; comparison of theory and experiment suggests the dominant channel is addition of H atoms to the nitrogen atom. On this basis, the observations are rationalized quantitatively. Computations also yield the thermochemistry of (CF 3 ) 2 CNH, with Δ f H 298 = −1232 kJ mol –1 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Improvements to RANS Modeling for Aeroheating Predictions on Blunt Bodies

Accurate predictions of aeroheating are critical for designing thermal protection systems for planetary entry vehicles. For larger vehicles, turbulence in the boundary layer can substantially increase convective heating. This turbulence must be accurately modeled to ensure the thermal protection system is sufficient. The majority of hypersonic turbulence model development and validation focuses on boundary layers developing over flat-plates or sharp cones; these cases are substantially different than the boundary layer that develops over the heatshield of a blunt body traveling at hypersonic speeds. Planetary missions often use blunt body geometries, such as the 70-degree sphere-cone favored by Mars missions or the 45-degree sphere-cone planned for the upcoming DAVINCI mission. Due to smaller vehicle size and the lower velocities in the stagnation region, planetary entry vehicles have relatively low Reynolds numbers. Surface curvature and high enthalpy gradients create additional challenges. These difficulties must be addressed to obtain high accuracy needed for the ambitious planetary missions in the upcoming decade. This work focuses on both assessing and improving Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for blunt-body geometries typical of planetary entry vehicles, with a focus on one-equation and two-equation formulations.

Mars2020

Modulation of thermal conductivity of iron-doped ß-Ga2O3 by helium-ion irradiation

This study examines the impact of helium-ion irradiation on the thermal conductivity of ß-Ga2O3. A laser-based spatial domain thermoreflectance technique is used to investigate thermal conductivity map for both un-irradiated and irradiated ß-Ga2O3, which are then validated against simulation results derived from density functional theory-based phonon transport simulations. Since helium bubble evolution was ob- served at the nanoscale using transmission electron microscopy, the simulation study was carried out on eight distinct helium-induced sites in ß-Ga2O3. Our findings indicate a reduction in thermal conductivity for the irradiated samples. Experimental results show a significant reduction in thermal conductivity in irradiated samples, with de- creases of approximately 25% along the [100] direction and 40% along [001] directions. Phonon transport simulations closely replicate these findings, particularly when helium occupying interstitial sites, predicting reductions of ˜53% along [100] and ˜50% along [001] directions. This work underscores the role of irradiation-induced microstructural changes in the heat transport properties of ß-Ga2O3 which is crucial for its application in sensor devices in extreme environments.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

Compressed baryon acoustic oscillation analysis is robust to modified-gravity models

Abstract We study the robustness of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) analysis to the underlying cosmological model. We focus on testing the standard BAO analysis that relies on the use of a template. These templates are constructed assuming a fixed fiducial cosmological model and used to extract the location of the acoustic peaks. Such “compressed analysis” had been shown to be unbiased when applied to the ΛCDM model and some of its extensions. However, it has not been known whether this type of analysis introduces biases in a wider range of cosmological models where the template may not fully capture relevant features in the BAO signal. In this study, we apply the compressed analysis to noiseless mock power spectra that are based on Horndeski models, a broad class of modified-gravity theories specified with eight additional free parameters. We study the precision and accuracy of the BAO peak-location extraction assuming DESI, DESI II, and MegaMapper survey specifications. We find that the bias in the extracted peak locations is negligible; for example, it is less than 10% of the statistical error for even the proposed future MegaMapper survey. Our findings indicate that the compressed BAO analysis is remarkably robust to the underlying cosmological model.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases

Long Duration Exposure Facility experiment M0003 deintegration observation database

The four trays of the M0003 materials experiment on LDEF contained 1274 samples from 19 subexperiments. The complete sample complement represented a broad range of materials, including thin film optical coatings, paints, polymer sheets and tapes, adhesives, and composites, for use in various spacecraft applications including thermal control, structures, optics, and solar power. Since some subexperiments included duplicate samples exposed on the leading and trailing edge trays, for 9 week, 19 week, 40 week, and 68 month durations on both the leading and trailing edges, comparisons provided a valuable time history of degradation. During the deintegration of the subexperiments from the M0003 trays, each sample was examined using bright field, dark field, and Normarski light microscopy techniques. Over 3,000 color macrographs and photomicrographs were made of the condition of M0003 trays and the individual samples. Records of the condition of the samples, photographic records, and all available references of publications on postflight analyses on each sample were collected in a database. The photographs provide a visual comparison of the response of materials common to various subexperiments in different LDEF environments. Aerospace Corporation is distributing the database records and photographs and written records on materials of interest from the database is given in this presentation.

S. R. Gyetvay

Defect-induced displacement of topological surface state in quantum magnet MnBi2Te4

The topological magnet MnBi2⁢Te4 (MBT), with gapped topological surface state, is an attractive platform for realizing quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulator states. However, the experimentally observed surface state gaps fail to meet theoretical predictions, although the exact mechanism behind the gap suppression has been debated. Recent theoretical studies suggest that intrinsic antisite defects push the topological surface state away from the MBT surface, closing its gap and making it less accessible to scanning probe experiments. Here, we report on the local effect of defects on the MBT surface states and demonstrate that high defect concentrations lead to a displacement of the surface states well into the MBT crystal, validating the theorized mechanism. The local and global influence of antisite defects on the topological surface states are studied with samples of varying defect densities by combining scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory. Our findings identify a combination of increased defect density and reduced defect spacing as the primary factors underlying the displacement of the surface states and suppression of surface gap, guiding further development of topological quantum materials.

Lupke, Felix [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]

Chapter 19B - Antenna Radiation Patterns

Modern civil and military aircraft are equipped with a variety of communication devices, radio navigation equipment, and air traffic control systems. For all of these devices appropriate antennas must be available to transmit and receive the signals. As a result, as many as 30 antennas, and sometimes even more, are mounted around today's aircraft. For this reason, it is necessary to know the capabilities of the receiving/transmitting equipment on board. These capabilities are driven by the antenna characteristics. Therefore, coverage, shading, and beam pointing pattern data are necessary for optimum electronic coverage. The aircraft antenna has to convert the available power density of the electromagnetic field to an electric voltage at its connector. This voltage level must be sufficiently high to operate the connected equipment. The reciprocity principle states that it makes no difference if the antenna is receiving or transmitting. For the certification of the aircraft antennas it must be proven that the antennas are at least generating the minimum receiver input voltage which is required for each radio service. The prime condition is, of course, that the specified field power densities of the different radio navigation and communication services are available. An important property of a radio frequency link is the electro-magnetic field intensity at every point in space for a given output power of the antenna. As the propagation of radio frequency waves in free space is well known, the spatial distribution of the field intensity needs only be measured at one spatial sphere around the antenna. The information is usually given as distributions along the circumference of flat sections through this sphere: each of these is called an ARP. Several ARPs are usually required to describe the complete spatial antenna pattern of an antenna. In addition to mathematical modeling, measurements on sub-scale models, and static measurements on full size models or aircraft on the ground, dynamic measurements on aircraft in flight play the most important role in the aircraft antenna testing and certification. [19B-1] The shape of an ARP, for one given frequency, is determined by the shape of the antenna and the shape and material of the surface it is mounted on. As the directly transmitted waves interfere with waves reflected by the aircraft skin with its complex geometry, and the surface material parameters are only roughly known, it is not possible to predict the ARP with the required accuracy. In ground measurements the earth's surface also acts as a reflector thereby causing the ground ARP to be different from the in-flight ARP. As the in-flight ARP is the ARP we are actually interested in it becomes clear that it is necessary to conduct in-flight ARP measurements. The Flight Test Engineer must be aware of the needs of the specialists who are establishing the test program for measuring antenna patterns and radar cross sections. These tests will require special test equipment and dedicated flights to obtain the data that they require. This Section provides an introduction to the principles of determining antenna patterns and the flight techniques for determining both antenna patterns and radar cross section. Reference 19B-1 provides detailed information.

Helmut Bothe

Achieving uniaxial magnetic anisotropy in Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 through Co- and Sm-substitution

Th2⁢Zn17−type structure-based permanent magnets, such as Sm2⁢Fe17⁢N3, offer strong potential as alternatives to neodymium magnets (NdFeB), but their practical use is limited by phase stability and the scarcity of Sm. Ce-based counterparts, particularly Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3, are attractive low-cost candidates, yet their intrinsic planar magnetic anisotropy restricts permanent-magnet performance. Here, we induce uniaxial magnetic anisotropy in Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 through two approaches: (i) Co substitution on the Fe sublattice and (ii) partial substitution of Ce with Sm. Combined density functional theory and experimental results show that both strategies modify the 3⁢𝑑–4⁢𝑓 interactions and band filling, yielding magnetization values up to ∼1.2T and magnetocrystalline anisotropy energies exceeding 1MJ/m3 for Co-alloyed compositions, with significantly larger anisotropy achieved upon Sm substitution. In addition, the Sm-substituted Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 samples exhibit enhanced high-temperature stability compared to Sm2⁢Fe17⁢N3. These findings demonstrate that Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3-based alloys can deliver magnetic performance suitable for permanent-magnet applications while reducing cost and reliance on critical rare-earth elements, and they provide practical design guidelines for rare-earth-lean magnets for energy and industrial applications.

Pokhrel, Nabaraj [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000328283076)

Tidal Tomography Reveals a Thermal Anomaly Beneath Mars’s Crustal Dichotomy

Mars undergoes seasonal tidal forcing as a result of its eccentric orbit and the tilt of its rotation axis relative to the Sun1. Response to this forcing produces temporal variations in the Martian gravity field and is sensitive to the internal structure of the planet2,3,4. Using tracking data from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft5,6,7, we demonstrate that degree-3 components of the time-variable gravity field of Mars differ by up to 300% from predictions for a spherically symmetric planet8,9,10. These deviations can be explained if the effective shear modulus of the mantle varies by >20% over a roughly north–south pattern that closely aligns with the surface expression of the Martian crustal dichotomy11. On the basis of this correlation, we infer preservation of a 200–400 °C thermal anomaly in the present-day mantle below the southern highlands of Mars. This temperature variation could reflect regional mantle convection12,13 or insulation by the thick southern highlands crust of Mars that has persisted over several billion years14,15.

Mars