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At least 325 records · Page 18

Explosive Yield Estimation Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

Here, we use the Pasyanos and Chiang (2022) data set to calculate the seismic moment M 0 for each explosion and use the measured explosive yield W to validate the W~M 0 relationship in Denny and Johnson (1991; hereafter, DJ91). The M 0 is corrected by transforming to a potency tensor and applying more appropriate near-source geophysical parameter values in the moment estimate. The mean residual between observed and predicted yield is near zero; however, the standard deviation of the residuals results in an F-value (a 95% confidence factor) of about 5. We re-estimate the coefficients in the DJ91 model and find similar values and only a slight improvement in the F-value. Next, we embark on a similar model selection process as DJ91, allowing for non-cube-root yield scaling and other plausible near-source elastic moduli. As was found by DJ91, the yield dependence is not significantly different from unity, and a cube root assumption is valid. Therefore, we yield scale the seismic moment and test the significance of all plausible explanatory variables. Isotropic moment performs better in the response variable than total moment. The preference for isotropic moment could be due to its relationship to volume change, which would be more directly affected by explosive yield. Surprisingly, we find that the overburden pressure, which is a function of depth, is not a significant parameter in the model. We hypothesize that this is due to the competing depth effects on source asymmetry and the incorporation of depth in the Green’s functions used to calculate the seismic moment tensors. Importantly, this emphasizes that only seismic moment tensor-derived moments should be used in these models. After removing insignificant model parameters, we are left with a simple model to predict explosive yield $\widehat{W}$ in kt from isotropic moment M I in N·m, $\widehat{W}$=κ –1.4132 10 0.035626GP M I , in which κ and GP are the near-source bulk modulus and gas porosity in Pa and %, respectively. The F-value for this model is approximately 3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pre-Sinkhole Seismicity at the Napoleonville Salt Dome: Implications for Local Seismic Monitoring of Underground Caverns

The formation of a sinkhole at the Napoleonville salt dome located near Bayou Corne in Assumption Parish, Louisiana, was preceded by an increase in seismicity, as observed 10 km away by a continuously recording broadband seismic sensor. The seismicity rate in the days prior to the sinkhole formation contained hundreds of long-period events, some of which could be detected using a power detector (short-term to long-term energy ratio) tuned to the duration and frequency content of the seismicity. A characteristic of some of these events is a resonance near 0.4 Hz, which could be due to either an acoustic resonance within the brine-filled cavity or possibly due to unsteady fluid flow through a crack. In this work, a more exhaustive catalog was obtained using some of the events detected by the power detector as templates in a correlation detector. Furthermore, the full pre-sinkhole sequence of detections could offer lessons in remote monitoring of underground caverns.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Observed Inefficiency of Explosions to Produce Large Aftershocks: Båth’s Law for Explosions is 2.5

Underground explosions are observed to produce fewer and smaller aftershocks than similar size earthquakes. The seismic magnitude difference $Δm_x$ between an explosion and its largest aftershock is an expression of Båth’s law for explosions. Based on an analysis of a compilation of aftershock studies from Soviet testing at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and observations from American testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), here we find that the average magnitude difference for explosions $\overline{Δm_x}$ is about 2.5. Based on the NNSS data, two standard deviations of $Δm_x$ is about 1.5. In all the cases studied, from ton to megaton yield, from shallow to overburied depth, and chemical or nuclear source, no explosion aftershock has been larger than the explosion that preceded it. In fact, the two events at the NNSS with the largest aftershock magnitudes relative to the explosion are associated with the collapse of the cavity created by the explosion. This is similar to observations from North Korean testing at the Punggye-ri Test Site, where the largest seismic event following the test is attributed to the collapse after the 2017 explosion and is from 0.8 to 2 magnitude units less than the mainshock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Source Separation and Medium Change of Contained Chemical Explosions from Coda Wave Interferometry

Differences in the seismic coda of neighboring events can be used to investigate source location offsets and medium change with coda wave interferometry (CWI). We employ CWI to infer the known relative location between two chemical explosions in Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). The inferred displacement between the first, SPE-1, and second, SPE-2, chemical explosion is between 6 and 18 m, with an expectation of 9.2 m, where the known separation is close to 9.4 m. We also employ CWI to find any velocity perturbation due to damage from SPE-2, by comparing its coda with the collocated third SPE chemical explosion, SPE-3. We find that damage due to SPE-2 must be confined to a spherical region with radius less than 10 m and velocity perturbation less than 25%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Public Data Set: The New Pegasus-III Experiment

This public data set contains openly-documented, machine readable digital research data corresponding to figures published in A.C. Sontag et al., 'The New Pegasus-III Experiment,' IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science 50, 4009 (2022).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Magnitude and Timing of the Tiltill Rockslide in Yosemite National Park, California

Yosemite National Park, California, is one of the best-documented sites of historical rockfalls and other rock slope failures; however, past work shows that this record does not capture the infrequent largest occurrences, prehistoric events orders of magnitude larger than the largest historic ones. These large prehistoric events are evident as voluminous bouldery landslide deposits, permitting volume and age quantification to better understand local volume–frequency relationships, potential triggering mechanisms, and the hazard such events might pose. The Tiltill rockslide in northern Yosemite is one such example, consisting of 2.1 × 10 6 m 3 ± 1.6 × 10 6 m 3 of talus (1.5 × 10 6 m 3 original volume of rock mass) that slid across the floor of Tiltill Valley, partially damming Tiltill Creek to create a seasonal pond that drains through and around the rockslide mass. This volume and the rockslide's effective coefficient of friction, 0.47, place it near the boundary between long-runout landslides and ordinary Coulomb failure. Although the rockslide superficially appears to consist of two separate lobes, statistically indistinguishable 10 Be exposure dates from eight samples indicate a single event that occurred at 13.0 ± 0.8 ka. The age of the Tiltill rockslide and its relatively low elevation compared to equilibrium line altitudes at this place and time make glacial debutressing a highly unlikely triggering mechanism. Additionally, seismic shaking associated with fault rupture along the eastern Sierra Nevada is shown to be a plausible but unverified trigger.

10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating↗

Free-field Ground Motion Induced by Underground Explosions at Aqueduct Mesa with Predictions for Physical Experiment One (PE1)

We fit standard power-law models for ground acceleration and particle velocity using scaled ground motion observations from underground nuclear explosions at Aqueduct Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site. The models are then validated using small-scale high-explosive (HE) test data from nearby Rainier Mesa. The comparison between model predictions and observations is good and can be made more favorable if the assumed yield for the HE tests are doubled. Further validation is made with a numerical experiment that additionally shows a transition in ground motion attenuation to elastic propagation (1 = r). An extended model is provided to incorporate the long-range transition in attenuation, which results in increased ground motions at farther range. We then make predictions for the field experiment, Physical Experiment One (PE1), to take place in P-tunnel on Aqueduct Mesa, and suggest that the models could be used in planning various operations for PE1.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Simulations of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE)

The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) project will include two surface energetic events (chemical explosions) conducted as close as possible to ground zero (GZ) of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II Dry Alluvium (DAG) site in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Seismic and acoustic data from these events will complement DAG buried source data and improve interpretation of speed-of-sound signals from explosions for national security programs. A satellite image of the region near GZ along with some of the recording stations that we will use for the far- eld simulation is shown in Figure 1. The working design of the HE package is shown in the Figure 2 and is roughly a cube of C-4 bricks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-frequency Electromagnetic Detection Limits of Underground Nuclear Explosions

Underground nuclear explosions produce a broadband electromagnetic signal that can propagate to the surface at some distance. We perform a logistic regression on historical electromagnetic detections to calculate a probabilistic detection curve for prediction of the propagation distance for any given underground nuclear explosion. The curve predicts positive detections at scaled ranges of 2414.6, 2025.7, 1908.3, and 1672.4 m/ktonne 1/3 at probabilities of 50, 90, 95 and 99%, respectively. For a theoretical 100 ktonne underground nuclear explosion these scaled ranges translate to absolute ranges of 11.2, 9.4, 8.9, and 7.8 km at probabilities of 50, 90, 95 and 99%, respectively. We also motivate a need for improved electromagnetic sensor design and deployment by extending the detection analysis using the quoted signal-to-noise ratio of two and noise amplitude of 10 pT along with attenuation relationships that go as 1/r to 1/r 3 . We find that reducing the noise floor by a factor often could extend the detection limit to approximately 5 to 25 km/ktonne 1/3 , which translates to 24 to 112 km for a theoretical 100 ktonne underground nuclear explosion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement among National Energy Technology Laboratory, University of Wyoming, and Energy Capital Economic Development [Abstract]

NETL is partnering with the University of Wyoming (UW) and ECED to mature a promising process for the recovery of rare earth elements (REE) and critical metals (CM) from the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming. The project will identify promising ash candidates from operating power generation facilities and optimize NETL’s proprietary REE and CM extraction and enrichment process for those materials, ultimately culminating in the creation and start-up of a pilot-scale production facility. This facility will demonstrate process performance and validate project economics, reducing the risk and uncertainty for further scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2020 Virtual Theoretical Division Lightning Talk Series

All members of the Theoretical Division Community, students, staff members, group leaders, division management and other interested individuals are invited to come and support the various Lightning Talk presentations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

National Demonstration Reactor Siting Study—Phase I (Revision 1)

In 2020, the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) initiated the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), with the goal of demonstrating two advanced reactor designs within the next five to seven years. When evaluating challenges in meeting this deadline, the newly established National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) determined that there was a limited number of well-characterized sites that could support this time-sensitive demonstration requirement. To close this gap, NRIC initiated a two-phase joint analytic effort including DOE, National Laboratory, and academic partners to examine demonstration reactor siting alternatives. The first phase of the study, which is documented in this report, describes the development of a methodology for site assessment and a preliminary assessment of a limited number of known siting alternatives. Revision 1 of this report includes 3 additional (13 total) siting alternatives and 2 additional (4 total) example scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Correlation of Injury Simulation with Clinical Assessment of Traumatic Brain Injury

This report contains a summary of our efforts to correlate head injury simulations predicting intracranial fluid cavitation with clinical assessments of brain injury from blunt impact to the head. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, collected on traumatic brain injury (TBI) subjects by researchers at the MIND Institute of New Mexico, was acquired for the current work. Specific blunt impact TBI case histories were selected from the TBI data for further study and possible correlation with simulation. Both group and single-subject case histories were examined. We found one single-subject case that was particularly suited for correlation with simulation. Diffusion tensor image (DTI) analysis of the TBI subject identified white matter regions within the brain displaying reductions in fractional anisotropy (FA), an indicator of local damage to the white matter axonal structures. Analysis of functional magnetic resonance image (fMRI) data collected on this individual identified localized regions of the brain displaying hypoactivity, another indicator of brain injury. We conducted high fidelity simulations of head impact experienced by the TBI subject using the Sandia head-neck-torso model and the shock physics computer code CTH. Intracranial fluid cavitation predictions were compared with maps of DTI fractional anisotropy and fMRI hypoactivity to assess whether a possible correlation exists. The ultimate goal of this work is to assess whether one can correlate simulation predictions of intracranial fluid cavitation with the brain injured sites identified by the fMRI and DTI analyses. The outcome of this effort is described in this report.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Water Metering Best Practices

These best practices provide technical information to select the appropriate water meters on buildings that have been identified and to understand how data can be used and analyzed to improve water management. The guidance focuses on the installation of advanced meters and includes a process that directs agencies on how to prioritize their buildings for water meters. The process centers on metering water-intensive building types.

42 ENGINEERING↗