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Can We Model Forest Demography Globally? Benchmarking of State-of-the-Art Demographic DGVMs

Forests in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have historically been simulated as area-averaged plant functional types in each gridcell instead of representing communities of trees of different sizes and ages (demography). Just as the behaviour of a tree differs according to its ontogeny, so the behaviour of forests is known to differ depending on their demography. Accurately simulating demography is therefore key in order to address questions on afforestation and management strategies, as well as assessments of resilience of forests to disturbances such as drought and fire or diversity changes after a disturbance. Ultimately, demography determines the overall forest biomass in natural forests and is a key arbiter of growth and mortality rates. DGVMs are now able to simulate size and age structure of the trees in forests. However, these models have so far not been benchmarked alongside each other. We evaluate 6 DGVMs (BiomeE, CABLE-POP, FATES, LPJ-GUESS, JULES-RED, ORCHIDEE) against observations on regrowth dynamics as well as natural forests at boreal, temperate and tropical sites. We examine whether the models capture observed regrowth dynamics after disturbance, well-known stand size structure and well-established processes such as self-thinning. We outline the planned route forward towards a standardised international benchmarking framework for demographic DGVMs.

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models↗

Remote Sensing of Fires and Smoke from the Earth Observing System MODIS Instrument

The talk will include review of the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) algorithms and performance e.g. the MODIS algorithm and the changes in the algorithm since launch. Comparison of MODIS and ASTER fire observations. Summary of the fall activity with the Forest Service in use of MODIS data for the fires in the North-West. Validation on the ground of the MODIS fire product.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗

Assessing Alaskan boreal forest landcover affected by climate-wildfire interactions from ground truth surveys and NASA airborne remote sensing

Alaska’s boreal forest is facing unprecedented challenges under rapid climate warming (increasingly severe fires, droughts, pest/disease outbreaks) that may destabilize its function as a global carbon sink. Forests near Fairbanks may be especially vulnerable, impacting air quality and ecosystem services. We combined GT (ground truthing) with Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) images collected by the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) program (2017-2019) to assess landcover change at five recently burned sites (2001-2019) of different fire severities and moisture regimes within 30 miles of Fairbanks. GT included tree seedling counts, understory % cover and >50% leaf canopy color assessment. 36 circular plots (1/30 ha radius) including 6 moderate to severely burned plots were selected across sites. 31 additional sites including 12 burned sites were geotagged in photos. AVIRIS images were processed from 29 spectral bands selected to identify changes in chlorophyll and water content. Images were segmented into natural boundaries (polygons) using ENVI 5.5 software. A spectral library of 8 AVIRIS bands with high between-class/low within-class variation was used in two random forest models to predict vegetation classes (model 1: 12 classes, model 2: 14 classes) in each AVIRIS scene, using 20% of the data as training data. Model 2 classified 20% more polygons overall, but only 42% of GT/geotagged polygons were correctly classified by both models. More forest sites were correctly classified (63%) than open vegetation (32%) or post-fire sites (46%). 50% of aspen forest and post-fire polygons were misclassified as shrubland. GT revealed that post-fire plots supported 134,000 (± 48,000) tree seedlings and saplings ha-1 (0.2 - 4 m height, 64% deciduous) versus 2500 (± 2100) shrubs ha-1 (1-6 m height). > 50% canopy browning was observed in conifer forest (8 plots) with no signs of insect infestation. Canopy herbivory > 50% (leaf miner, leaf beetle) and moose herbivory of tree bark was seen across aspen sites. Our study suggests: 1) low canopy vegetation presents challenges for improved landcover classification, and 2) aspen forest should be differentiated in vegetation maps which would aid in tracking herbivory.

Alaska↗

Trace gas emissions from a mid-latitude prescribed chaparral fire

Smoke-plume gas samples were collected at altitudes from 35-670 m above the ground over the San Dimas Experimental Forest during a 400-acre prescribed chaparral fire. Mean emission ratios relative to CO2 for CO, H2, CH4, and total nonmethane hydrocarbons were lower than previous values obtained for large biomass-burning field experiments. Comparison of samples from vigorously flaming and mixed stages of combustion revealed little differences in CO2 normalized emission ratios for these gases (except for N2O).

Cofer, Wesley R., III↗

Mapping of taiga forest units using AIRSAR data and/or optical data, and retrieval of forest parameters

A maximum a posteriori Bayesian classifier for multifrequency polarimetric SAR data is used to perform a supervised classification of forest types in the floodplains of Alaska. The image classes include white spruce, balsam poplar, black spruce, alder, non-forests, and open water. The authors investigate the effect on classification accuracy of changing environmental conditions, and of frequency and polarization of the signal. The highest classification accuracy (86 percent correctly classified forest pixels, and 91 percent overall) is obtained combining L- and C-band frequencies fully polarimetric on a date where the forest is just recovering from flooding. The forest map compares favorably with a vegetation map assembled from digitized aerial photos which took five years for completion, and address the state of the forest in 1978, ignoring subsequent fires, changes in the course of the river, clear-cutting of trees, and tree growth. HV-polarization is the most useful polarization at L- and C-band for classification. C-band VV (ERS-1 mode) and L-band HH (J-ERS-1 mode) alone or combined yield unsatisfactory classification accuracies. Additional data acquired in the winter season during thawed and frozen days yield classification accuracies respectively 20 percent and 30 percent lower due to a greater confusion between conifers and deciduous trees. Data acquired at the peak of flooding in May 1991 also yield classification accuracies 10 percent lower because of dominant trunk-ground interactions which mask out finer differences in radar backscatter between tree species. Combination of several of these dates does not improve classification accuracy. For comparison, panchromatic optical data acquired by SPOT in the summer season of 1991 are used to classify the same area. The classification accuracy (78 percent for the forest types and 90 percent if open water is included) is lower than that obtained with AIRSAR although conifers and deciduous trees are better separated due to the presence of leaves on the deciduous trees. Optical data do not separate black spruce and white spruce as well as SAR data, cannot separate alder from balsam poplar, and are of course limited by the frequent cloud cover in the polar regions. Yet, combining SPOT and AIRSAR offers better chances to identify vegetation types independent of ground truth information using a combination of NDVI indexes from SPOT, biomass numbers from AIRSAR, and a segmentation map from either one.

Rignot, Eric↗

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Large Unmanned Aircraft System Operations in the National Airspace System - the NASA 2007 Western States Fire Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) Ikhana (ee-kah-nah) project executed the 2007 Western States Fire Missions over several of the western United States using an MQ-9 unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in partnership with the NASA Ames Research Center, the United States Forest Service, and the National Interagency Fire Center. The missions were intended to supply infrared imagery of wildfires to firefighters on the ground within 10 minutes of data acquisition. For each of the eight missions, the NASA DFRC notified the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of specific flight plans within three or fewer days of the flight. The FAA Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (commonly referred to as a COA ) process was used to obtain access to the United States National Airspace System. Significant time and resources were necessary to develop the COA application, perform mission planning, and define and approve emergency landing sites. Unique aspects of flying unmanned aircraft created challenges to mission operations. Close coordination with FAA headquarters and air traffic control resulted in safe and successful missions that assisted firefighters by providing near-real-time imagery of selected wildfires.

Buoni, Gregory P.↗

Operational Experience with Long Duration Wildfire Mapping: UAS Missions Over the Western United States

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, United States Forest Service, and National Interagency Fire Center have developed a partnership to develop and demonstrate technology to improve airborne wildfire imaging and data dissemination. In the summer of 2007, a multi-spectral infrared scanner was integrated into NASA's Ikhana Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) (a General Atomics Predator-B) and launched on four long duration wildfire mapping demonstration missions covering eight western states. Extensive safety analysis, contingency planning, and mission coordination were key to securing an FAA certificate of authorization (COA) to operate in the national airspace. Infrared images were autonomously geo-rectified, transmitted to the ground station by satellite communications, and networked to fire incident commanders within 15 minutes of acquisition. Close coordination with air traffic control ensured a safe operation, and allowed real-time redirection around inclement weather and other minor changes to the flight plan. All objectives of the mission demonstrations were achieved. In late October, wind-driven wildfires erupted in five southern California counties. State and national emergency operations agencies requested Ikhana to help assess and manage the wildfires. Four additional missions were launched over a 5-day period, with near realtime images delivered to multiple emergency operations centers and fire incident commands managing 10 fires.

Hall, Philip↗

Satellite Boreal Measurements over Alaska and Canada During June-July 2004: Simultaneous Measurements of Upper Tropospheric CO, C2H6, HCN, CH3Cl, CH4, C2H2, CH2OH, HCOOH, OCS, and SF6 Mixing Ratios

Simultaneous ACE (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment) upper tropospheric CO, C2H6, HCN, CH3Cl, CH4 , C2H2 , CH30H, HCOOH, and OCS measurements show plumes up to 185 ppbv (10 (exp -9) per unit volume) for CO, 1.36 ppbv for C2H6, 755 pptv (10(exp -12) per unit volume) for HCN, 1.12 ppbv for CH3C1, 1.82 ppmv, (10(exp -6) per unit volume) for CH4, 0.178 ppbv for C2H2, 3.89 ppbv for CH30H, 0.843 ppbv for HCOOH, and 0.48 ppbv for OCS in western Canada and Alaska at 50 deg N-68 deg N latitude between 29 June and 23 July 2004. Enhancement ratios and emission factors for HCOOH, CH30H, HCN, C2H6, and OCS relative to CO at 250-350 hPa are inferred from measurements of young plumes compared with lower mixing ratios assumed to represent background conditions based on a CO emission factor derived from boreal measurements. Results are generally consistent with the limited data reported for various vegetative types and emission phases measured in extratropical forests including boreal forests. The low correlation between fire product emission mixing ratios and the S176 mixing ratio is consistent with no significant SF6 emissions from the biomass fires.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

The Vegetation Greenness Trend in Canada and US Alaska from 1984-2012 Landsat Data

To assess the North American high-latitude vegetation response to the rising temperature, we derived NDVI end for 91.2% of the non-water, non-snow land area of Canada and Alaska using the peak-summer Landsat surface reflectance data of 19842012. Our analysis indicated that 29.4% and 2.9 of the land area of Canada and Alaska showed statistically significant positive (greening) and negative (browning) trends respectively, at significance level p b 0.01, after burned forest areas were masked out. The area with greening trend dominated over that with browning trend for all land cover types. The greening occurred primarily in the tundra of western Alaska, along the north coast of Canada and in northeastern Canada; the most intensive and extensive greening occurred in Quebec and Labrador. The browning occurred mostly in the boreal forests of eastern Alaska. The Landsat-based greenness trend is broadly similar to the 8-km GIMMS AVHRR-based trend for all vegetation zones. However, for tundra, the Landsat data indicated much less extensive greening in Alaska North Slope and much more extensive greening in Quebec and Labrador, and substantially less extensive browning trend in the boreal forests that were free of fire disturbances. These differences call for further validation of the Landsat reflectance and the AVHRR NDVI datasets. Correlation study with local environmental factors, such as topography, glacial history and soil condition, will be needed to understand the heterogeneous greenness change at the Landsat scale.

Ju, Junchang↗

Wildfires in Northern Siberian Larch Dominated Communities

The fire history of the northern larch forests within the permafrost zone in a portion of northern Siberia (approx 66 deg N, 100 deg E) was studied. Since there is little to no human activities in this area fires within the study area were mostly caused by lightning. Fire return intervals (FRI) were estimated based on burn marks on tree stems and dates of tree natality. FRI values varied from 130 yr to 350 yr with 200 +/- 50 yr mean. In southerly larch dominated communities FRI was found to be shorter (77 +/- 20 yr at approx 61 deg. N, and 82 +/- 7 at 64 deg N), and longer at the northern boundary (approx 71 deg) of larch stands (320 +/- 50 yr). During the Little Ice Age period in the 16th to 18th centuries FRI was approximately twice as long as recorded in this study. Fire caused changes in the soil including increases in soil drainage and permafrost thawing depth and a radial growth increase of about 2 times (with more than 6 times observed). This effect may simulate the predicted warming impact on the larch growth in the permafrost zone.

Khaurk, Viacheslav I.↗

Trace gas and particulate emissions from biomass burning in temperate ecosystems

Emissions measured from fires in graminoid wetlands, Mediterranean chaparrals, and boreal forests, suggest that such ecosystemic parameters as fuel size influence combustion emissions in ways that are broadly predictable. The degree of predictability is most noticeable when wetland fire-related results are compared with boreal forest emissions; the inorganic fraction of the particulate emissions is close in composition irrespective of the ecosystem. It is found that both aerosol and trace gas emissions are influenced by the phase of combustion.

Cofer, Wesley R., III↗

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗

Mapping the Daily Progression of Large Wildland Fires Using MODIS Active Fire Data

High temporal resolution information on burned area is a prerequisite for incorporating bottom-up estimates of wildland fire emissions in regional air transport models and for improving models of fire behavior. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the evolution of nine large wildland fires. For each fire, local input parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The accuracy of the kriging model was assessed using high resolution daily fire perimeter data available from the U.S. Forest Service. We also assessed the temporal reporting accuracy of the MODIS burned area products (MCD45A1 and MCD64A1). Averaged over the nine fires, the kriging method correctly mapped 73% of the pixels within the accuracy of a single day, compared to 33% for MCD45A1 and 53% for MCD64A1.

Aqua↗

The 1985 Biomass Burning Season in South America: Satellite Remote Sensing of Fires, Smoke, and Regional Radiative Energy Budgets

Using satellite imagery, more than five million square kilometers of the forest and cerrado regions over South America are extensively studied to monitor fires and smoke during the 1985 biomass burning season. The results are characterized for four major ecosystems, namely: (1) tropical rain forest, (2) tropical broadleaf seasonal, (3) savannah/grass and seasonal woods (SGW), and (4) mild/warm/hot grass/shrub (MGS). The spatial and temporal distribution of fires are examined from two different methods using the multispectral Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Local Area Coverage data. Using collocated measurements from the instantaneous scanner Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data, the direct regional radiative forcing of biomass burning aerosols is computed. The results show that more than 70% of the fires occur in the MGS and SGW ecosystems due to agricultural practices. The smoke generated from biomass burning has negative instantaneous net radiative forcing values for all four major ecosystems within South America. The smoke found directly over the fires has mean net radiative forcing values ranging from -25.6 to -33.9 W m(exp -2). These results confirm that the regional net radiative impact of biomass burning is one of cooling. The spectral and broadband properties for clear-sky and smoke regions are also presented that could be used as input and/or validation for other studies attempting to model the impact of aerosols on the earth-atmosphere system. These results have important applications for future instruments from the Earth Observing System (EOS) program. Specifically, the combination of the Visible Infrared Scanner and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the combination of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and CERES instruments from the EOS morning crossing mission could provide reliable estimates of the direct radiative forcing of aerosols on a global scale, thereby reducing the uncertainties in current global aerosol radiative forcing values.

Christopher, Sundar A.↗

Episodic nitrous oxide soil emissions in Brazilian savanna (cerrado) fire-scars

The seasonally burned cerrados of Brazil are the largest savanna-type ecosystem of South America and their contribution to the global atmospheric nitrous oxide (N20) budget is unknown. Four types of fire-scarred cerrado along a vegetation gradient from grassland to forest were investigated during the wet season of 1992/93. The effect of fire and subsequent water additions on epiodic emissions of N2O and the associated profile dynamic of soil/gas phase N2O concentrations were studied for several months. Additionally, the effect on episodic emissions of N2O of nitrate and glucose additions to a cerrado soil after fire and the associated profile dynamic of soil/gas phase N2O mixing ratios were determined. Finally, N2O episodic emissions in cerrado converted to corn, soybean, and pasture fields were investigated during one growing/wet season. Results showed N2O consumption/emission for the four fire-scared savanna ecosystems, for nitrogen and carbon fertilization, and for agriculture/pasture ranging from -0.3 to +0.7, 1.8 to 9.1, and 0.5 to 3.7 g N2O-N ha(exp -1) d(exp -1), respectively. During the wet season the cerrado biome does not appear to be a major source of N2O to the troposphere, even following fire events. However, the results of this study suggest that conversion of the cerrado to high input agriculture, with liming and fertilization, can increase N2O emissions more than ten fold.

Nobre, A. D.↗