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DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

First Principle based Thermal Conductivity Modeling of Metal Alloys with Applications on Uranium Alloys

Thermal conductivity is an important materials property related to heat transport, which is essential to many applications, ranging from thermoelectrics to nuclear reactor materials. High- quality thermal conductivity data is critical to these materials and their associated technologies, including the nuclear fuel materials like traditional oxide fuels and metallic uranium (U) fuels, e.g. U-Zr and U-Mo alloys. And thermal conductivity modeling is widely used to interpolate or extrapolate experimental data, to obtain high-quality thermal conductivity data over wide temperature and composition range, and to understand the impacts of different factors including defects and microstructures. However, a general thermal conductivity model for metal alloys which can work regrading different phase components is still missing. Also, for U alloys, a thermal conductivity model working with different phases is needed. Therefore, in this work, we developed thermal conductivity models for metal alloys, based on ab-initio calculations, semi-classical physics rules, and limited experimental data. The goals of these models are to help obtain high- quality thermal conductivity data within a little experimental input as possible, have models that are extendable to varying microstructures, including different types of irradiation effects, and provide mechanistic understanding of heat transfer in the modeled alloys. In this work, our model solves several challenges in the development. The DFT-BTE approach is applied to decrease the reliance on experimental data and make the model extendable to composition changes and defects. A practical and efficient way to combine the DFT inputs with physics rules is pointed out in this work too. A staged approach, which starts from simple cases of elemental metals, then extends to solid solutions, different compound phases, and multi-phase mixtures, is presented to work with the metal alloys in different phase components. Our models are demonstrated respectively on aU for elemental metal model, on U-Zr and U-Mo alloys in aU temperature range for multi-phase mixture model, on high-temperature U-Zr, U-Nb, and U-Mo alloys in the body-centered cubic phase for concentrated solid solution model, and on irradiated U-Mo alloys for irradiated metal alloy model. All models show great agreement with experimental data. In these demonstrations, our model shows its advantages compared to previous empirical fitting model. Our model requires fewer experimental data, due to the inputs from DFT. The quantitative insights into the different physical factors are provided in our model, as it incorporates the electron and phonon scattering mechanisms. Our model also can be extended to incorporate the contributions of point defects, grain boundaries, and noble gas bubbles, to integrate their effects on heat transfer. This model can serve as both a foundation for understanding the more complex thermal conductivity of realistic U alloy fuels and a useful tool to guide further modeling of thermal conductivity to aid materials and device design.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alaska Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

The Alaska MET (Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission) Toolkit is the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) new flagship atmospheric dataset, designed to support comprehensive long-term planning and operations across the entire power sector. Serving as the regional counterpart to CONUS-wide HRRR MET Toolkit, this dataset provides a comprehensive, high-fidelity meteorological record covering Alaska.The Alaska MET Toolkit is delivered at an hourly resolution on a standardized 2-km horizontal grid. This dataset is repackaged from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh for Alaska (HRRR-AK) forecasts. Spanning from 2019 to 2025, it overcomes the technical barriers of native weather models by providing spatial regridding from the native 3-km HRRR-AK horizontal resolution to a 2-km grid, temporal gap-filling, and vertical interpolation at key energy-relevant heights. By delivering highly accurate, validation-backed data across a comprehensive suite of atmospheric variables - including temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind characteristics - the Alaska MET Toolkit provides a highly accessible and strictly standardized foundation for modern power system modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

$${\mathcal{P}}{\mathcal{T}}$$-Symmetric Effective Model for Nonequilibrium Phase Transitions in a Dissipative Fermionic Mott Insulator Chain

Nonequilibrium phase transitions in open dissipative systems can be described as instabilities in the spectra and wavefunctions of effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonians invariant under simultaneous parity (P) and time-reversal (T) transformations. The degree of non-Hermiticity reflects the strength of the external drive and dissipation, and the transition is described as a loss of the PT symmetry of the solutions corresponding to stationary low-drive dynamics. This approach has been successfully applied to spin, superconducting, and Mott insulator systems. However, the microscopic foundations for the employed phenomenological models are currently lacking. Here we propose a microscopic mechanism leading to the PT-symmetric effective model in the context of the nonequilibrium Mott transition in a dissipative Hubbard chain. Our model comprises a half-filled fermionic Hubbard chain subject to a constant electric field. The dissipation is introduced via the electron-phonon coupling. We obtain the explicit expressions for the non-Hermitian parameter in terms of the electron-phonon coupling strength and driving field. Analyzing the implications of microscopic model, we find a re-entrant Mott insulator with the increasing electric field for phonon density of states that increases slower than the square of the energy (such as in one or two dimensions), or varies non-monotonously with energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Practical Understanding of Cancer Model Identifiability in Clinical Applications

Mathematical models are a core component in the foundation of cancer theory and have been developed as clinical tools in precision medicine. Modeling studies for clinical applications often assume an individual’s characteristics can be represented as parameters in a model and are used to explain, predict, and optimize treatment outcomes. However, this approach relies on the identifiability of the underlying mathematical models. In this study, we build on the framework of an observing-system simulation experiment to study the identifiability of several models of cancer growth, focusing on the prognostic parameters of each model. Our results demonstrate that the frequency of data collection, the types of data, such as cancer proxy, and the accuracy of measurements all play crucial roles in determining the identifiability of the model. We also found that highly accurate data can allow for reasonably accurate estimates of some parameters, which may be the key to achieving model identifiability in practice. As more complex models required more data for identification, our results support the idea of using models with a clear mechanism that tracks disease progression in clinical settings. For such a model, the subset of model parameters associated with disease progression naturally minimizes the required data for model identifiability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling

As the US moves closer to embracing a net zero greenhouse gas emissions position, combustion processes outside the power sector are becoming urgent concerns. Industry is an important end user of energy and relies on fossil fuels used directly for process heating and as feedstocks for a diverse range of applications. Fuel and energy use by industry is heterogeneous, meaning that even a single product group can vary broadly in its production routes and associated energy usage. In the US, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) serves as the basis for data collection and reporting. In turn, data based on NAICS is the foundation of most US energy modeling. Thus, the effectiveness of NAICS at representing energy use is a limiting condition for plans to improve energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil fuels in industry. Facility-level data to build more detail into heterogeneous sectors is scarce. This work explores alternative classification schemes for industry based on energy use characteristics, and provides a validation of an approach to make facility-level energy use estimates based on publicly available data from the greenhouse gas reporting program. First, several approaches to industrial taxonomies and their usefulness for industrial energy modeling are summarized. Data from Industrial Assessment Centers is analyzed using unsupervised machine learning techniques to detect clusters. Cladistics, an approach from biology, is adapted to energy and process characteristics of industries. A cladogram is presented for evolutionary directions in the iron and steel sector. Cladograms are a promising tool for constructing scenarios and summarizing directions of sectoral innovation. Finally, validation is performed for facility-level energy estimates from the US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. This validation assists in making this data source available for use in energy modeling. Together, this work explores alternative approaches for categorizing industries in a way that aids understanding energy use, and presenting pathways for the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The phase-space structure of dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT The phase space structure of dark matter haloes can be used to measure the mass of the halo, infer mass accretion rates, and probe the effects of modified gravity. Previous studies showed that the splashback radius can be measured in position space using a sharp drop in the density profile. Using N-body simulations, we model the distribution of the kinematically distinct infalling and orbiting populations of subhaloes and haloes. We show that the two are mixed spatially all the way to redge, which extends past the splashback radius defined by the drop in the spherically averaged density profile. This edge radius can be interpreted as a radius that contains a fixed fraction of the apocentres of dark matter particles. Our results highlight the possibility of measuring the outer boundary of a dark matter halo using its phase space structure and provide a firm theoretical foundation to the satellite galaxy model adopted in the companion paper, where we analysed the phase space distribution of Sloan Digital Sky Survey redMaPPer clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic Model for the Reduction of Cu II Sites by NO + NH 3 and Reoxidation of NH 3 -Solvated Cu I Sites by O 2 and NO in Cu-SSZ-13

In this work, a kinetic model is developed for the reduction of Cu II sites by NO + NH 3 and the reoxidation of NH 3 -solvated Cu I sites by O 2 and NO in Cu-SSZ-13. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and spatially resolved capillary inlet mass spectrometry (SpaciMS) measurements during transient reactor experiments are utilized to identify the rate parameters associated with NO + NH 3 RHC (reduction half-cycle), proposed to occur via two distinct pathways involving adsorbed NH 3 and gas-phase NH 3 . The resulting NO + NH 3 RHC model is validated using spatiotemporal N 2 measurements covering a wide range of temperatures (200–450 °C) and space velocities (53,000–640,000 h –1 ). N 2 O formation is observed and modeled during NO + NH 3 RHC, with quantitative validation under standard selective catalytic reduction (SCR) conditions. Experimentally measured enthalpic and entropic changes associated with O 2 adsorption on NH 3 -solvated Cu I (ZCu(NH 3 ) 2 ) complexes [ Kamasamudram, K. Catal. Today 2010 , 151 (3–4), 212-222], along with activation energies estimated computationally for the intercage diffusion of ZCu(NH 3 ) 2 complexes [ Paolucci, C. Science 2017 , 357 (6 354), 898-903], are incorporated into a mean field kinetic model for the low-temperature oxidation half-cycle (OHC). Significant NH 3 release is observed during the isothermal oxidation of Cu I sites, attributed to desorption of NH 3 ligands from NH 3 -solvated Cu II dimers (Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 ). Reduction of these dimeric complexes leads to the consumption of one NO/Cu II , contradicting the expected reduction stoichiometry. Inclusion of a global Arrhenius rate for the NO titration of Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 complexes provides accurate representations of standard SCR on reduced and oxidized catalysts, predicting transient NO and NH 3 consumption between 150 and 250 °C as a function of hydrothermal aging. Deactivation of low-temperature standard SCR by NH 3 is observed at high NH 3 pressures, modeled via the formation of superoxo amino (ZCu(NH 3 ) 3 OO*) complexes during NH 3 titration of Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 complexes [ Negri, C. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2020 , 142 (37), 15884-15896]. The redox kinetic model presented here provides a foundational description of active site redox during low-temperature standard SCR, combining the recent kinetic, spectroscopic, and computational findings on the mechanism of standard SCR over Cu-SSZ-13.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Research Roadmap on Grid-Forming Inverters

This research roadmap is intended to fill the knowledge gap by providing a system view of grid-forming inverter-based resource controls and their impact on grid stability, which we believe is central to meeting some of the challenges to operating the future North American electric power system. This includes the roles and requirements of grid-forming inverter-based resources—including solar photovoltaics, wind generators, and energy storage. For this roadmap, we focus on a specific family of grid-forming inverter control approaches that do not rely on an external voltage source (i.e., no phase-locked loop) and that can share load without explicit communications. Although the roadmap is focused narrowly on system challenges for grid-forming controls and power system stability, including interactions with protection, we hope it serves as a foundational element for future system-of-systems roadmapping needed in a broader grid modernization effort with increasing deployments of inverter-based resources. The roadmap first introduces formal definitions for the grid stability topics and then describes the differences between grid-forming and traditional grid-following control approaches for inverter-based resources. The core of the roadmap consists of a review of current research and an outline of research needs related to five grid-forming inverter topics: frequency control, voltage control, system protection, fault ride-through and voltage recovery, and modeling and simulation. The review both delineates contemporary advances and highlights open research questions that must be addressed to enable the widespread adoption of inverter-based resources across the grid. Feedback from industry on these research questions is incorporated, including discussions during the Workshop on Grid-forming Inverters for Low-inertia Power Systems. The workshop included industry presentations and discussion of ongoing research, technology gaps, and piloting needs. This roadmap concludes by offering a multiyear perspective on the gradual field validation of grid-forming inverters. This perspective recognizes that the scale and scope of the types of power systems that inverters will be called on to provide grid-forming services will and should begin modestly. Specifically, this roadmap recognizes that inverter controls today are predominantly grid-following and that future power systems will involve a mix of inverter-based resources with both grid-following and grid-forming control capabilities. Growth over time will depend on how well grid-forming inverters perform and what advantages they bring as penetration levels (instantaneous and average) of inverter-based resources increases. This recognition, in turn, establishes a natural sequence of priorities for the research questions that must be addressed. Following this multiyear perspective, the roadmap offers short descriptions of two specific near-term research priorities: the review of regulatory and technical standards and the development of advanced modeling techniques. These priorities are foundational. We recommend immediate pursuit of them in parallel with and in direct support of the research outlined by our multiyear perspective.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interparticle Characterization of Mechanical Biomass Particle-Particle and Particle-Wall Interactions

The biomass materials industry faces significant challenges in managing material variability and its impact on storage and handling systems. Physical properties such as moisture content, particle size, and density fluctuate considerably, leading to operational issues like bridging and ratholing that disrupt material flow. These variations create a complex cascade effect throughout the process chain, affecting transportation, storage, and conversion processes. The economic consequences of this variability manifest in increased operational costs, maintenance requirements, and system downtime. Environmental factors further complicate the situation, as weather conditions and seasonal availability influence material properties and system performance. Engineers employ specialized equipment design, material characterization protocols, and pre-processing steps like size reduction and homogenization to address these challenges. A critical knowledge gap exists between continuous-level constitutive models and particle-scale behavior. This project developed a novel device to quantify interparticle mechanics between biomass particles, measuring friction and adhesion forces between particles and wall materials. The research focused on corn stover and southern pine forest residue, creating a comprehensive database of particle interactions. This breakthrough enables direct application in particle-based computational modeling, advancing the field's understanding of biomass handling characteristics and supporting the development of more reliable and efficient storage and handling systems. The project's outcomes contribute significantly to understanding biomass's mechanical and flow characteristics, particularly how variability at the particle level affects larger-scale handling operations. This knowledge is crucial for engineering feedstock supply systems that consistently meet quality and cost specifications for various conversion processes. The innovative experimental setup developed through this research represents a significant advancement in biomass characterization methodology. Providing precise measurements of particle-level interactions establishes a foundation for more accurate predictive modeling of bulk material behavior. This enhanced understanding of fundamental particle mechanics enables engineers to anticipate better and address handling challenges before they manifest in full-scale operations. This research opens new avenues for optimizing biomass handling systems through data-driven design approaches. The comprehensive database of particle interactions serves as a valuable resource for future research and development efforts, potentially leading to more efficient and cost-effective biomass processing solutions. This advancement in particle-level mechanics could revolutionize how biomass handling systems are designed and operated, contributing to more sustainable and reliable renewable energy production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fluid modeling of low-temperature plasmas

Fluid models are essential for understanding and predicting low-temperature plasma (LTP) behavior in various scientific and industrial settings. This paper provides an introductory tutorial on fluid modeling of LTPs, covering model formulation, implementation, and computational simulations. The tutorial focuses on five main components of the formulation of LTP fluid models: fluid flow, energy, chemistry, electromagnetism, and material properties, as well as in essential aspects of model implementations, including multiscale phenomena, multiphysics coupling, and numerical convergence. Designed for students and early-career researchers, this work offers a practical foundation for developing and using fluid models, from in-house computational codes to commercial software, bridging fundamental theory with real-world applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Rapid Permafrost Thaw on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in a Warmer and Wetter Future (Final Technical Report)

When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground subsides, creating thermokarst landscapes with dramatically different soil conditions and carbon fluxes than the original ecosystem. Roughly 20% of the northern permafrost region is susceptible to thermokarst formation (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Thermokarst formation is often rapid; tens of meters of permafrost can thaw within a few years (Schuur et al., 2015). In topographically low areas, thermokarst thaw converts boreal forest or tundra dry shrub ecosystems into sedge or Sphagnum moss wetlands (Olefeldt et al., 2016). While this type of landscape transformation releases carbon stored in permafrost into the atmosphere, on longer time scales, it facilitates sequestration of atmospheric carbon in plant biomass because permafrost thaw releases plant-available nutrients and wetlands are highly productive (M. C. Jones et al., 2017). However, wetlands also generate methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from thermokarst wetlands can cause these carbon-sequestering systems to have a positive global warming potential (Johansson et al., 2006; Turetsky et al., 2007). Our project objective was to improve Earth System and environmental predictability by advancing understanding of how CO 2 and CH 4 flux in permafrost thaw-induced wetlands (thermokarst) will change in the future as temperatures and climate conditions shift. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter (IPCC 2013), and initiation and expansion of thermokarst thaw is expected to increase (Jorgenson et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2017). Given these expected changes, our work sought to address three broad questions: Q1) How will northern latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions respond to warming temperatures? Q2) What is the impact of precipitation on permafrost thaw and carbon emissions? Q3) How do CO2 and CH4 emissions change as wetlands age after permafrost thaw? To answer these questions, we took both a modeling and measurement approach. Modeling work was conducted with DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Empirical work took place in two primary locations. The first was a thermokarst site near Fairbanks, AK. The site is part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research program and is well instrumented (Neumann et al., 2019). The second was an isolated thawing permafrost wetland located on Kenai Peninsula — Brown’s Lake bog (B. M. Jones et al., 2016) — where the current climate is representative of what is expected at higher latitudes in the future. This site provides an ideal opportunity to test our hypotheses about how thermokarst wetland dynamics will respond to future environmental conditions. In addition, the project collaborated with researchers asking similar questions who were collecting measurements in high latitude post-glacial lakes located in collaborators tackling similar questions in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) (Emerson et al., 2021). Project efforts directly aligned with the stated goal of the funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was “to improve the understanding and representation of terrestrial ecosystems in ways that advance Earth system model parameterizations and capabilities... thereby improving the quality of Earth and environmental model projections and providing the scientific foundation needed to support DOE’s science and energy missions.” Specifically, the project improved sophistication and accuracy of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), which is being developed primarily at DOE National Laboratories to support scientific research and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamic modeling of adsorption at the liquid-solid interface

Adsorptive separation techniques are significantly energy efficient in comparison to conventional thermal separation techniques such as distillation. Despite extensive research and development activities undertaken for mixed-gas adsorption, the use of adsorption techniques for the separation of multicomponent liquid mixtures is still limited. A major barrier is the lack of accurate adsorption thermodynamic models, which form the scientific foundation of process simulation of such systems, making the translation to industrial scale challenging. In this work, we have rigorously computed the surface excess of adsorption for six binary liquid mixtures on silica gel at 303 K using the frameworks of the generalized Langmuir isotherm (gL) and the adsorbed solution theory (AST). The six binary liquid mixtures were formed by the pair-wise combinations of four components: benzene, 1,2-dichloroethane, cyclohexane, and n-heptane. We have based our calculations by considering simultaneous equilibria of three phases: saturated vapor phase, bulk liquid phase, and adsorbed phase. Further, the composition of the corresponding saturated vapor phase was estimated by the Nonrandom Two-Liquid activity coefficient model and experimental vapor-liquid equilibria data. The activity coefficients of the adsorbed phase, the central issue of multicomponent adsorption thermodynamics, were calculated using the adsorption Nonrandom Two-Liquid activity coefficient model. Devoid of simplifying assumptions, gL and AST provide rigorous thermodynamic frameworks for adsorption equilibria of multicomponent liquid mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics and growth rate implications of ribosomes and mRNAs interaction in E. coli

Understanding how cells grow and adapt under various nutrient conditions is pivotal in the study of biological stoichiometry. Recent studies provide empirical evidence that cells use multiple strategies to maintain an optimal protein production rate under different nutrient conditions. Mathematical models can provide a solid theoretical foundation that can explain experimental observations and generate testable hypotheses to further our understanding of the growth process. In this study, we generalize a modeling framework that centers on the translation process and study its asymptotic behaviors to validate algebraic manipulations involving the steady states. Using experimental results on the growth of E. coli under C-, N-, and P-limited environments, we simulate the expected quantitative measurements to show the feasibility of using the model to explain empirical evidence. Our results support the findings that cells employ multiple strategies to maintain a similar protein production rate across different nutrient limitations. Moreover, we find that the previous study underestimates the significance of certain biological rates, such as the binding rate of ribosomes to mRNA and the transition rate between different ribosomal stages. Furthermore, our simulation shows that the strategies used by cells under C- and P-limitations result in a faster overall growth dynamics than under N-limitation. In conclusion, the general modeling framework provides a valuable platform to study cell growth under different nutrient supply conditions, which also allows straightforward extensions to the coupling of transcription, translation, and energetics to deepen our understanding of the growth process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics

We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pathogenesis of Chapare Virus in Cynomolgus Macaques

Chapare virus (CHAPV) is an emerging New World arenavirus that is the causative agent of Chapare hemorrhagic fever (CHHF) responsible for recent outbreaks with alarmingly high case fatality rates in Bolivia near the Brazilian border. Here, we describe a nonhuman primate (NHP) model of CHHF infection which represents an essential tool to understand this emerging biological threat agent. Cynomolgus macaques challenged intravenously with CHAPV develop clinical disease, which recapitulates several key features of human CHHF. All subjects lost weight and had clinical scores following CHAPV challenge. Notably, one of four NHPs developed lethal disease with viral hepatitis and hemorrhagic features. Clinical chemistry and hematology revealed leukopenia, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and increased transaminase levels. In all four subjects, viremia was detectable for the first week following challenge and viral RNA was detectable in serum and many tissues persisting 35 days-post challenge. Several medical countermeasures (MCM) have efficacy against CHAPV infection in vitro, but the current model for MCM testing and approval of new drugs is reliant on the availability of animal models. This work lays the foundation for future CHHF MCM development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗