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At least 325 records · Page 18

A simple statistical model for geomagnetic reversals

The diversity of paleomagnetic records of geomagnetic reversals now available indicate that the field configuration during transitions cannot be adequately described by simple zonal or standing field models. A new model described here is based on statistical properties inferred from the present field and is capable of simulating field transitions like those observed. Some insight is obtained into what one can hope to learn from paleomagnetic records. In particular, it is crucial that the effects of smoothing in the remanence acquisition process be separated from true geomagnetic field behavior. This might enable us to determine the time constants associated with the dominant field configuration during a reversal.

Constable, Catherine↗

The time-dependent dynamical response of the thermosphere to major geomagnetic disturbances

Several recent observations of thermospheric dynamics, made in the polar regions during extremely disturbed geomagnetic periods are reviewed. In general, the magnitude and the variability of winds in the thermospheric polar regions increases with magnetic activity, as measured by any of the conventional indices. However, none of the conventional indices is a particularly good aid to predicting wind magnitudes. In very general terms, two major factors may be considered in describing the wind system. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and, in particular, its southward component, determine the size of the auroral oval, and the strength of the cross-polar cap potential. This determines the size of the auroral oval, the magnitude of the sunward winds in the auroral oval and of those blowing anti-sunward over the polar cap, and is probably the major factor in determining the rate of geomagnetic energy deposition in the thermosphere. Superimposed on this enhanced polar circulation system are the effects of discrete auroral substorms. From a global view point, the effect of substorms is to generate a series of strong disturbances which propagate from their source region, usually near magnetic midnight in the auroral oval. The energy associated with discrete substorms is, however, usually a rather small proportion of the total global geomagnetic input during disturbed periods. These observations of thermospheric wind disturbances will be evaluated by comparison with global simulations of the thermospheric response to theoretical and semi-empirical models of the polar electric field, and of the effects of magnetospheric particle precipitation.

Rees, D.↗

Mesospheric Observations and Modeling of the Zeeman Split 233.9 GHz O-18O-16 line

Observations made from Kitt Peak, AZ, of the 233.9 GHz emission line of O-18O-16 in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are reported. A good model fit to the line is obtained by incorporation of pressure and temperature broadening effects, as well as a Zeeman splitting algorithm that uses a standard geomagnetic field model and a paramagnetic Hamiltonian description of the molecular energy states. These observations are used, along with the well known O-18O-16 mixing ratio, to establish absolute calibration for observations of other chemical species from Kitt Peak. Repeated measurements show no change in this absolute calibration between observation dates. The wide magnetic splitting (+/-1.8 MHz) exhibited by this line with only six Zeeman components provides a unique test of middle atmosphere Zeeman effect model calculations, supporting the use Of 02 lines by microwave atmospheric sounders to measure pressure and temperature.

Sandor, Brad J.↗

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

predictions↗

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗

Ionosphere and atmosphere of the moon in the geomagnetic tail

The paper presents calculations of the densities and energies of the various constituents of the lunar ionosphere during the time that the moon is in the geomagnetic tail; the surface concentrations of neon and argon are calculated from a theoretical model to be 3,900 and 1,700, respectively. It is found that a hydrostatic model of the ionospheric plasma is inadequate because the gravitational potential energy of the plasma is considerably smaller than its thermal energy. A hydrodynamic model, comparable to that used to describe the solar wind, is developed to obtain plasma densities and flow velocities as functions of altitude. The electromagnetic properties of the quiescent ionosphere are then investigated, and it is concluded that plasma effects on lunar induction can be neglected for quiescent conditions in the geomagnetic tail lobes.

Daily, W. D.↗

The zonally averaged circulation, temperature, and compositional structure of the lower thermosphere and variations with geomagnetic activity

A zonally averaged chemical-dynamical model of the thermosphere is used to examine the effect of high-latitude particle and Joule heating on the neutral composition, temperature, and winds at solstice for solar minimum conditions. The meridional circulation forced by solar heating alone is a summer-to-winter flow, with a winter enhancement in atomic oxygen. The high-latitude heat sources drive mean circulation cells that reinforce the solar-driven circulation in the summer hemisphere and oppose this circulation in the winter hemisphere. The changes in wind and temperature caused by the high-latitude heat sources increase the relative concentration of N2 and O2 in the high-latitude upper thermosphere and decrease the O concentration in the high-latitude lower thermosphere. For prolonged moderate levels of geomagnetic activity the peak atomic oxygen density in the polar regions can decrease by factors of 2-3 from geomagnetic quiet conditions.

Roble, R. G.↗

Remanent magnetization model for the broken ridge satellite magnetic anomaly

A crustal model for the interpretation of the Broken Ridge satellite magnetic anomaly was constructed from bathymetric data assuming an Airy-type isostatic compensation. An average crustal magnetization of 6 A.m is required to account for the observed anomaly amplitudes provided that the whole crust is homogeneously magnetized. In contrast, a model representing only the topographic expression of the Broken Ridge, above the surrounding sea floor, requires a magnetization of the order of 40 A.m-1. Since this latter figure is much higher than is to be expected from studies of magnetic properties of oceanic rocks, it is concluded that the majority of the crustal volume of Broken Ridge is magnetized relatively uniformly. The direction of the source magnetization is consistent with an inclination shallower than the present geomagnetic field and close to that of an axial dipole. Since a more northerly source location for Broken Ridge is contrary to the paleolatitude data it is though that the magnetization represents a magnetization obtained by averaging the geomagnetic field direction over a sufficient time to remove secular variation effects. This pattern is indicative of viscous magnetization.

Johnson, B. D.↗

Validation and applications of the POLAR code

The Potentials of Large Objects in the Auroral Region (POLAR) code was written to model the charging of large spacecraft by auroral electrons in low polar orbit. It has also proven to be a powerful tool for analysis of active and voltage-plasma interactions. POLAR combines 3-D object definition, direct solution to Poisson's equation, space charge transport, and surface charge computation. Physical effects treated by POLAR include the plasma wake and ram, the geomagnetic field, ionization, sheath and barrier formation, and photo and secondary electron generation and transport. Polar development is complete and it is now available to the aerospace community. The methodology of POLAR is reviewed but concentration is on the applications of POLAR to physical problems and observations with the intent of demonstrating both the code's capabilities, and its limitations. These applications include the Space Shuttle, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, sounding rockets, plasma chamber experiments, and things not yet flown.

Cooke, David L.↗

Magnetosonic ULF Waves With Anomalous Plasma–Magnetic Field Correlations: Standing Waves and Inhomogeneous Plasmas

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave observations across the heliosphere often rely on the sign of correlations between plasma (density/pressure) and magnetic field perturbations to distinguish between fast and slow magnetosonic modes. However, the assumptions behind this magnetohydrodynamic result are not always valid, particularly within the magnetosphere which is inhomogeneous and supports standing waves along the geomagnetic field. Through theory and a global simulation, we find both effects can result in anomalous plasma–magnetic field correlations. The interference pattern in standing waves can lead both body and surface magnetosonic waves to have different cross-phases than their constituent propagating waves. Furthermore, if the scale of gradients in the background are shorter than the wavelength or the waves are near-incompressible, then advection by the wave of inhomogeneities can overcome the wave's inherent sense of compression. These effects need to be allowed for and taken into account when applying the typical diagnostic to observations.

MHD Waves↗

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Modeling Solar Zenith Angle Effects on the Polar Wind

We use the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM) to study the geomagnetically quiet conditions in the polar cap during solar maximum. The PWOM solves the gyrotropic transport equations for O+, H+, and He+ along several magnetic field lines in the polar region in order to reconstruct the full 3D solution. We directly compare our simulation results to the data based empirical model of Kitamura et al. (2011) of electron density which is based on 63 months of Akebono satellite observations. The modeled ion and electron temperatures are also compared with a statistical compilation of quiet time data obtained by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) and Intercosmos Satellites. The data and model agree reasonably well, albeit with some differences. This study shows that photoelectrons play an important role in explaining the differences between sunlit and dark results of electron density, ion composition, as well as ion and electron temperatures of the quiet time polar wind solution. Moreover, these results provide an initial validation of the PWOM s ability to model the quiet time "background" solution.

Glocer, A↗

Modeling the Prodromal Effects and Performance Reduction of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events

In space exploration outside the Earth's geomagnetic field, radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPE) presents a health concern for astronauts, that could impair their performance and result in possibility of failure of the mission. Acute risks are especially of concern during spacewalks on the lunar surface because of the rapid onset of SPE's and science goals that involve long distances to crew habitats. Thus assessing the potential of early radiation effect under such adverse conditions is of prime importance. Here we present a biologic based mathematical model which describes the dose and time-dependent early human responses to ionizing radiation. We examine the possible early effects on crew behind various shielding materials from exposure to some historical large SPEs on the lunar and Mars surfaces. The doses and dose rates were calculated using the BRYNTRN code (Kim, M.Y, Hu, X, and Cucinotta, F.A, Effect of Shielding Materials from SPEs on the Lunar and Mars Surface, AIAA Space 2005, paper number AIAA-2005-6653, Long Beach, CA, August 30-September 1, 2005) and the hazard of the early radiation effects and performance reduction were calculated using the RIPD code (Anno, G.H, McClellan, G.E., Dore, M.A, Protracted Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement, Volume 1 Model Development,1996, Defense Nuclear Agency: Alexandria VA). Based on model assumptions we show that exposure to these historical SPEs do cause early effects to crew members and impair their performance if effective shielding and medical countermeasure tactics are not provided. The calculations show multiple occurrence of large SPEs in a short period of time significantly increase the severity of early illness, however early death from failure of the hematopoietic system is very unlikely because of the dose-rate and dose heterogeneity of SPEs. Results from these types of calculations will be a guide in design of protection systems and medical response strategy for astronauts in case of exposure to high dose irradiation during future space missions.

Hu, S.↗

Solar Cycle Variation in the Inner Zone Proton Belt Configuration

This paper presents a novel method of demonstrating atmospheric scale-height effects on energetic trapped protons. We have been using 2-D cross correlations as a powerful method of assessing the role of the trapped energetic protons in producing various effects in low altitude satellite systems. The method has permitted us to directly measure the drift of the particle South Atlantic Anomaly (due to the secular variation in the geomagnetic field) as a function of altitude and proton energy and to estimate the energy of the particles causing those effects. We have also been able to address minor artifacts in the AP82 model, itself. In this paper, we show that the technique is sufficiently powerful to address the variation in the inner zone energetic proton environment which occurs as a function of the solar cycle.

Vampola, A. L.↗

Modeling Acute Health Effects of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events

In space exploration outside the Earth s geomagnetic field, radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPE) presents a health concern for astronauts, that could impair their performance and result in possible failure of the mission. Acute risks are of special concern during extra-vehicular activities because of the rapid onset of SPE. However, most SPEs will not lead to acute risks but can lead to mission disruption if accurate projection methods are not available. Acute Radiation Sickness (ARS) is a group of clinical syndromes developing acutely (within several seconds to 3 days) after high dose whole-body or significant partial-body ionizing radiation exposures. The manifestation of these syndromes reflects the disturbance of physiological processes of various cellular groups damaged by radiation. Hematopoietic cells, skin, epithelium, intestine, and vascular endothelium are among the most sensitive tissues of human body to ionizing radiation. Most ARS symptoms are directly related to these tissues and other systems (nervous, endocrine, and cardiovascular, etc.) with coupled regulations. Here we report the progress in bio-mathematical models to describe the dose and time-dependent early human responses to ionizing radiation. The responses include lymphocyte depression, granulocyte modulation, fatigue and weakness syndrome, and upper gastrointestinal distress. The modest dose and dose-rates of SPEs are predicted to lead to large sparing of ARS, however detailed experimental data on a range of proton dose-rates for organ doses from 0.5 to 2 Gy is needed to validate the models. We also report on the ARRBOD code that integrates the BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE codes, which are used to estimate the SPE organ doses for astronauts under various space travel scenarios, with our models of ARS. The more recent effort is to provide easy web access to space radiation risk assessment using the ARRBOD code.

Hu, Shaowen↗

On the apparent diamagnetism of the lunar environment in the geomagnetic tail lobes

The reported investigation presents the magnetic observations averaged in a format that facilitates comparison with models of plasma diamagnetic effects. These models demonstrate that a decreased plasma energy density in the lunar vicinity always causes an induced dipole that increases the external field. Hence, an increased plasma energy density in the lunar environs is required to account for the observed magnetic decrease. There are several different plasma populations in the high-latitude geomagnetic tail lobes, including the lunar ions resulting from photoionization of lunar atmosphere neutrals, possible fluxes of polar-wind protons, low-energy particle events which consist of antisolar directed fluxes of 100-eV protons, photoelectrons from the dayside lunar surface, and a high-energy thermal population.

Goldstein, B. E.↗