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NASA NTRS2018

Robotic Infrastructure for Mars Outpost Water Supply

Intercontinental rovers servicing automated solar-powered Rodriguez Wells can supply water for Human Exploration on Mars. This paper describes a solar-powered multivehicle concept that can turn water resources obtained from mid-latitude glacier ice into a sustained water supply. A robotic drilling platform is proposed that can access relatively pure water ice in mid-latitude Martian glaciers through 1-10m of loose regolith, whereupon longdistance tanker rovers continually traverse terrain between the drilling operation and human outposts located in Mars equatorial zones. Robotically deployed solar-thermal panels will be able to passively heat warm water that is delivered into a Rodriguez Well (a melted cavity in an expanse of water ice such as a glacier). Newly melted water will be pumped up out of the well and cycled through the solar panels to fill tankers. The tankers will consist of multiple four-wheeled linked cars in a tram-like configuration that can overcome steep terrain and obstacles. The system will be able to deliver its own landed mass of water to the human explorers every ~74 Mars days. The resources, power, vehicle configurations, and detailed functions are described.

Howe, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mineralogical Signatures of Mars-Analog Eskers in Iceland

Orbital geomorphic observations of the martian surface suggest glaciers were present during much of Mars’ history. Amazonian- and Hesperian-aged lobate and viscous flow features and moraines, some of which retain remnant ice deposits, are typically interpreted as evidence for cold-based glaciation. There is some morphological evidence for wet-based glaciation, however, and the Late Noachian Icy Highlands model, in which melting of glaciers is hypothesized to create valley networks, would have generated features characteristic of wet-based glaciers, like eskers. Furthermore, recent work suggests lower gravity on Mars promoted subglacial water drainage, leading to channels and eskers. There is a paucity of morphological and compositional measurements of subglacial landforms on Earth to provide comparison to putative subglacial features on the martian surface, like eskers. Our group is studying the morphology, sedimentology, and composition of eskers formed in Iceland to identify characteristics of these features that will help determine whether sinuous ridges on Mars are ancient eskers. Here, we report on the mineralogy of eskers that were sampled during our summer 2022 field campaign and evaluate whether there is a mineralogical signature of eskers that is distinct from surrounding glacial outwash plains

E B Rampe↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modelling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet can be partitioned between surface mass balance and discharge due to ice dynamics through its marine-terminating outlet glaciers. A perturbation to a glacier terminus (e.g., a calving event) results in both an instantaneous response in velocity and mass loss and a diffusive response due to the evolution of ice thickness over time. This diffusive response means the total impact of a retreat event can take decades to be fully realized. Here we model the committed response of the Greenland Ice Sheet by applying perturbations to the marine-terminating glacier termini that represent recent observed changes, and simulating the response over the 21st century, while holding the climate forcing constant. The sensitivity of the ice sheet response to model parameter uncertainty is explored within an ensemble framework, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data is used to constrain the results using a Bayesian calibration approach. We find that the Greenland Ice Sheet's committed contribution to 21st century sea level rise is at least 33.5 [17.5 52.4] mm (25th and 75th percentiles in brackets), with at least 6 mm being attributable directly to terminus retreat that occurred between 2007 and 2015. The spread in our projections is driven by uncertainty in the basal friction coefficient. Our results complement the ISMIP6 Greenland projections, which report the ice sheet response to future forcing, excluding the background response. In this way, we can obtain estimates of Greenland's total contribution to sea level rise in 2100.

Isabel J. Nias↗

NASA NTRS2022

The 28 November 2020 Landslide, Tsunami, and Outburst Flood – A Hazard Cascade Associated With Rapid Deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada

We describe and model the evolution of a recent landslide, tsunami, outburst flood, and sediment plume in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. On November 28, 2020, about 18 million m3 of rock descended 1,000 m from a steep valley wall and traveled across the toe of a glacier before entering a 0.6 km2 glacier lake and producing >100-m high run-up. Water overtopped the lake outlet and scoured a 10-km long channel before depositing debris on a 2-km2 fan below the lake outlet. Floodwater, organic debris, and fine sediment entered a fjord where it produced a 60+km long sediment plume and altered turbidity, water temperature, and water chemistry for weeks. The outburst flood destroyed forest and salmon spawning habitat. Physically based models of the landslide, tsunami, and flood provide real-time simulations of the event and can improve understanding of similar hazard cascades and the risk they pose. Plain Language Summary Glacier retreat exposes unstable slopes that can suddenly fail. We describe and model one such event with far-reaching consequences. The landslide mass (50 million tonnes, equivalent to the combined mass of all Canadian automobiles) entered and suddenly drained a 0.6-km2 alpine lake in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Displaced water destroyed salmon-spawning habitat over a distance of 8.5 km and created a plume of sediment and organic matter more than 60 km from the head of the fjord into which the floodwaters discharged. Physically based models are able to simulate the hazard cascade, and such models could be used to improve hazard and risk assessments of these events under future climate change.

M. Geertsema↗

NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) Three Dimensional Ice-Flow Velocity Estimation Using Satellite Radar Interferometry

An understanding of the flow dynamics of an ice sheet's outlet glaciers and ice streams requires knowledge of their flow velocity and strain rates (i.e., velocity gradients). Prior to the recent advent of satellite radar interferometry, it was not possible to measure detailed ice-flow velocity over the vast featureless areas that comprise most of the ice sheets. Since the launch of ERS-1, the use of satellite radar interferometry data for making densly sampled ice-flow velocity measurements has been firmly established by several studies. We have combined data from nonparallel orbits with surface slope information to make vector ice-flow measurements for the Ryder Glacier, Greenland. Our results for the Ryder are promising and indicate that repeat-pass interferometric data can be used to make vector measurements of ice velocity.

ice sheets radar interferometry glaciers flow dyna↗

NASA NTRS2020

Over-Winter Persistence of Supraglacial Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Results and Insights From a New Model

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: Glacier Lake. Glacier Lake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to −30◦C and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ~250 days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of −15◦C with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

glacier hydrology↗

NASA NTRS1996

Tidal Flexure, Ice Velocities, and Ablation Rates of Peterman Gletscher, Greenland

Over the floating section of a tide-water glacier, single radar intererograms are difficult to use because the long-term steady motion of the ice is intermixed with the tidal vertical motion of the glacier. With multiple interferograms, it is however possible to isolate the tidal signal and remove it from the single interferograms to estimate the ice velocities. The technique is applied to ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of Petermann Gletscher, north Greenland.

synthetic aperture radar SAR ice velocities interf↗

NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Mount Rainier: New Remote Sensing Observations of a Decade Volcano

Mount Rainier was selected as a Decade Volcano by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior. The purpose of this selection is to focus scientific and public attention on Mount Rainier during the current decade, the United Nations-designated International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction. The Mount Rainier science plan calls for remote sensing surveys to monitor the volcano. To date, we have conducted airborne surveys with visible and near-infrared, thermal infrared, and interferometric radar instruments. Our preliminary analysis of some night-time time-series thermal infrared survey data sets of the summit suggests that, aside from seasonal variations in snow cover, there have been no qualitative changes in the size or pattern of the summit hot spots. Day-time airborne surveys were done to record the current surface appearance of the volcano and map hydrothermal alteration in the summit region. An interferometric radar survey yielded a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) which serves as a base for the registration of the other remote sensing data sets. More importantly, the DEM documents the current topography of glaciers and valleys. Planned biannual radar survey of mount rainier will produce a data set from which seasonal changes in glacier and valley topography can be characterized. Such characterization is essential if we are to recognize geothermally induced changes in snow and ice cover.

infrared radar interferometry glaciers seasonal va↗

NASA NTRS1994

Lessons from Popocatepetl Volcano (Mexico): Ancient Settlement Buried by Lavas, Mudflows, and Air-Fall Deposits

Popocatepetl volcano is 5452 m in altitude and capped by glaciers with a long Late Pleistocene-Holocene history. Volcanic activity has been intense during the last 10 000 years. Therefore, the valleys at the NE foothills of the volcano, covered by air-fall ejecta and drained by the runoff of the glaciers, became very attractive to ancient inhabitants of the Xalizintla Valley (XV) west of Puebla City, because of fertility of soils. The XV was occupied by humans about 2000 years ago who witnessed five events related to volcanic activity related to Popo. These events, described in this paper, are being taken into account for volcanic risk evaluation since several towns with a population of more than 23 000 people reoccupied again the Xalizintla Valley.

volcano Popocatepetl Mexico glacier mud flows huma↗

NASA NTRS2015

Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of −108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

Water↗

NASA NTRS2016

Fate of Water Pumped from Underground and Contributions to Sea Level Rise

The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1-5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6-10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWDends up in the ocean. An increase in runo to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/- 0.004)mm yr(sup-1) in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/- 0.04)mm yr(sup-1) in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 +/-0.04)mm yr(sup-1), suggesting that the net terrestrialwater contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

water↗

NASA NTRS2017

Remote Sensing Of The Cryosphere In High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia (HMA), often referred to as the "third pole" of the world because its high elevation glaciers, contains the largest amount of fresh water outside the polar ice sheets. The region's hydrology is strongly controlled by variations in the timing and distribution of runoff from snow and glacier melt. Recent improvements in remote sensing technologies and atmospheric / land surface models provides new approaches for assessing the HMA cryosphere. A recently-funded NASA program aims to apply these tools to advance understanding of HMA cryospheric processes. Here we present an overview of planned team activities during the three-year project.

High Mountain Asia↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solid-phase Mn speciation in suspended particles along meltwater-influenced fjords of West Greenland

Manganese (Mn) is an essential micro-nutrient that can limit or, along with iron (Fe), co-limit phytoplankton growth in the ocean. Glacier meltwater is thought to be a key source of trace metals to high latitude coastal systems, but little is known about the nature of Mn delivered to glacially-influenced fjords and adjacent coastal waters. In this work, we combine in-situ dissolved Mn (dMn) measurements of surface waters with Mn K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) data of suspended particles in four fjords of West Greenland. Data were collected from transects of up to 100 km in fjords with different underlying bedrock geology from 64 to 70°N. We found that dMn concentrations generally decreased conservatively with increasing salinity (from 80 to 120 nM at salinity < 8 to < 40 nM at salinities > 25). Dissolved Fe (dFe) trends in these fjords similarly declined with increasing distance from glacier outflows (declining from > 20 nM to < 8 nM). However, the dMn/dFe ratio increased rapidly likely due to the greater stability of dMn at intermediate salinities (i.e. 10–20) compared to rapid precipitation of dFe across the salinity gradient. The XAS data indicated a widespread presence of Mn(II)-rich suspended particles near fjord surfaces, with structures akin to Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates. However, a distinct increase in Mn oxidation state with depth and the predominance of birnessite-like Mn(IV) oxides was observed for suspended particles in a fjord with tertiary basalt geology. The similar dMn behaviour in fjords with different suspended particle Mn speciation (i.e., Mn(II)-bearing phyllosilicates and Mn(IV)-rich birnessite) is consistent with the decoupling of dissolved and particulate Mn and suggests that dMn concentrations on the scale of these fjords are controlled primarily by dilution of a freshwater dMn source rather than exchange between dissolved and particle phases. This work provides new insights into the Mn cycle in high latitude coastal waters, where small changes in the relative availabilities of dMn, dFe and macronutrients may affect the identity of the nutrient(s) proximally limiting primary production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗

DOE OSTI2022

A detection of the sea level fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet melt

Rapid melting of ice sheets and glaciers drives a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level change. However, the detection of individual fingerprints has been challenging because of sparse observations at high latitudes and the difficulty of disentangling ocean dynamic variability from the signal. Here we predict the fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melt using recent ice mass loss estimates from radar altimetry data and model reconstructions of nearby glaciers and compare this prediction to an independent, altimetry-derived sea surface height trend corrected for ocean dynamic variability in the region adjacent to the ice sheet. A statistically significant correlation between the two fields (P < 0.001) provides an unambiguous observational detection of the near-field sea level fingerprint of recent GrIS melting in our warming world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗