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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Direct Air Capture of CO 2 and Delivery to Photobioreactors for Algal Biofuel Production (Final Report)

A mobile DAC system was designed and constructed to pair with photobioreactors growing algae for biofuel production. The DAC system was designed as a versatile research system, rather than a compact production unit. The system was constructed and mounted on a mobile skid to facilitate transportation to the algae production site. Within the DAC system, CO 2 was captured using amine-loaded monoliths that allow for high CO 2 uptake with low pressure drop. The CO 2 is collected using a Global Thermostat patented temperature/vacuum swing adsorption (TVSA) process. Amine sorbents and process conditions were optimized to produce 10 to >20 g CO 2 .h-1. The stability of the amine sorbents was also studied, with sorbent modifications made to improve stability to degradation by oxidation. An Algenol-developed Spirulina strain (Arthrospira platensis AB2293) was selected as the production cyanobacterial strain. AB2293 cultured was inoculum for outdoor production following PBR installation by Algenol. The PBR system was composed of three independent PBRs, with each PBR composed of four hanging bags internally recirculated by a liquid turnover pump. The PBRs were operated outdoors in Atlanta, GA, and integrated with the DAC system. Algae were grown with similar productivity using DAC-CO 2 as algae grown using pure CO 2 obtained commercially (Airgas). Throughout the experimental duration, no discoloration was observed, and cellular morphology was consistent between the two experimental treatments. An LCA including lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, full life cycle inventory of the Algenol system and the DAC system and integrated DAC+PBR system was developed. Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for capture of carbon dioxide using input from Global Thermostat and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Three scenarios for energy provision were evaluated: a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the electricity requirement, a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the process heat requirements, and a system without on-site power that procures the electricity from the grid. In all three cases, as expected, the major contributor to the emissions is the energy consumption associated with the desorption step of the DAC process. The LCA quantified the reduced potential energy and greenhouse gas emissions of heat and mass integration of DAC and Algenol compared to unintegrated DAC and Algenol systems. A life cycle assessment of the role of sorbent productivity and lifetime was also developed. The development of more robust, oxidation resistant DAC sorbents may enable small reductions in energy requirements and in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. NREL performed techno-economic analysis (TEA) to identify the integration scenario most likely to achieve a 15% cost reduction target versus the baseline. Heat and mass integration of DAC and the PBR is critical to minimizing the MFSP. The baseline case utilizes no heat and mass integration, and the DAC system provides 100% of the CO 2 required by the photobioreactors (20 tonnes/hr), operating for 12 hours/day capturing 40 tonnes CO 2 /operating hour. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of ethanol calculated from the baseline case was $10.68/gal ethanol. This corresponds with a targeted MFSP of $9.07/gal ethanol (or 15% reduction). This target was achieved by integration Option 2a with the greatest cost reduction of 17.8% (or $8.78/gal) and integration Option 2b with a cost reduction of 16.4% (or $8.93/gal). Reductions in MFSP are attributed to two primary process considerations: (a) CO 2 storage at night reduces the capital expenses associated with DAC (i.e., increasing on-stream time); and (b) distributed DAC scenarios (DAC-PBR integration Options 2a and 2b) make use of boiler and DAC CHP flue gas CO 2 (free). Direct air capture on-stream time was one of the largest contributors to MFSP reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Policy Pathways to Decarbonize South Asia’s Industrial Sector

The industrial sector is responsible for one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and industrial decarbonization will be an essential component of limiting emissions and mitigating climate change (Rissman et al., 2020). This holds true for South Asian countries as they work toward their stated commitments to reducing emissions in the coming years. India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 33–35% by 2030 (Government of India, 2016) and announced at COP26 a target of reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2070, a goal that will require rapid decarbonization of energy-intensive industries (WEF, 2021). Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contributions include a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 6.73% to 15.12% by 2030 (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2021). While these Nationally Determined Contributions do not explicitly target emissions reductions in industry, Bangladesh’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C) Master Plan highlights industry as an important sector for EE&C (Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority, 2015). Sri Lanka has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, including a reduction in industrial greenhouse gas emissions (Ministry of Environment, 2021). Nepal’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 includes plans to establish guidelines and technology transitions facilitating industrial decarbonization (Government of Nepal, 2020).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The U.S. Energy System and the Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel From Clean Electricity

Jet fuel is relatively small in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions (10% of U.S. transportation sector in 2021, expected to increase to 14% by 2050). Still airlines have ambitious goals to reduce their greenhouse footprints from carbon-neutral growth beginning this year to reducing greenhouse gas emission for international flights by 50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. The challenge is heightened by the longevity of the current fleet (30–50 years) and by the difficulty in electrifying the future fleet because only 5% of the commercial aviation greenhouse gas footprint is from regional flights that might, conceivably be electrified using foreseeable technology. Therefore, large amounts of sustainable aviation fuel will be needed to reach the aggressive targets set by airlines. Only 3 million gallons (11.4 ML) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) (with a heat of combustion totaling about 400 TJ = 0.0004 EJ) was produced in the U.S. in 2019 for a 26 billion gallon per year market (3.6 EJ/year). Fischer-Tropsch and ethanol oligomerization (alcohol-to-jet) are considered for producing SAF, including the use of renewable electricity and carbon dioxide. In sequencing the energy transition, cleaning the U.S. grid is an important first step to have the largest greenhouse gas emissions reduction. While carbon dioxide and clean electricity can potentially provide the SAF in the future, an ethanol oligomerization option will require less energy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Confined Ni-In intermetallic alloy nanocatalyst with excellent coking resistance for methane dry reforming

Carbon dioxide and methane are two main greenhouse gases which are contributed to serious global warming. Fortunately, dry reforming of methane (DRM), a very important reaction developed decades ago, can convert these two major greenhouse gases into value-added syngas or hydrogen. The main problem retarding its industrialization is the seriously coking formation upon the nickel-based catalysts. Herein, a series of confined indium-nickel (In-Ni) intermetallic alloy nanocatalysts (In x Ni@SiO 2 ) have been prepared and displayed superior coking resistance for DRM reaction. The sample containing 0.5 wt.% of In loading (In 0.5 Ni@SiO 2 ) shows the best balance of carbon deposition resistance and DRM reactivity even after 430 h long term stability test. The boosted carbon resistance can be ascribed to the confinement of core–shell structure and to the transfer of electrons from Indium to Nickel in In-Ni intermetallic alloys due to the smaller electronegativity of In. Additionally, both the silica shell and the increase of electron cloud density on metallic Ni can weaken the ability of Ni to activate C–H bond and decrease the deep cracking process of methane. The reaction over the confined InNi intermetallic alloy nanocatalyst was conformed to the Langmuir-Hinshelwood (L-H) mechanism revealed by in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (in-situ DRIFTS). This work provides a guidance to design high performance coking resistance catalysts for methane dry reforming to efficiently utilize these two main greenhouse gases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complementary roles for mechanical and solvent-based recycling in low-carbon, circular polypropylene

Plastic recycling presents a vexing challenge. Mechanical recycling offers substantial greenhouse gas emissions savings relative to virgin plastic production but suffers from degraded aesthetic and mechanical properties. Polypropylene, one of the most widely used and lowest-cost plastics, features methyl pendants along the polymer backbone, rendering it particularly susceptible to declining properties, performance, and aesthetics across a succession of mechanical recycles. Advanced processes, such as solvent-assisted recycling, promise near-virgin quality outputs at a greater energy and emissions footprint. Mechanical and advanced recycling are often presented as competing options, but real-world plastic waste streams are likely to require preprocessing regardless of whether they are routed to an advanced process. This study quantifies the life-cycle greenhouse gas implications of multiple recycling strategies and proposes a system in which mechanical and solvent-assisted recycling can be leveraged together to boost recycling rates and satisfy demand for a wider range of product applications. Polypropylene can be recovered from mixed-plastic bales produced at material recovery facilities and processed through mechanical recycling, with a varying fraction sent for further upgrading via solvent-assisted recycling to produce material approved for food packaging and other higher-quality applications. The resulting mechanically recycled rigid polypropylene reduces life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 80% relative to the same quantity of virgin material, while the upgraded higher-quality material achieves GHG savings of 30%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Luminescent Enhancement for Combined Solar and Commercial Agriculture. Final Report

This proposal will develop a new racking / mounting system combined with a new agriculture-tuned luminescent solar panel for low cost high tunnel implementation to produce both crops and electricity for small local farms. Crop trials performed under this specialized panel/racking system can be extended to open field agriculture with standard utility scale racking system in phase II. The US agricultural industry uses about 300 billion KW-hr of energy / year. Of this energy consumption, roughly 20% goes towards food production and 20% goes towards food processing. This proposal will allow farm land to simultaneously generate electricity, food AND provide jobs. Employment is one of the largest hurdles for the introduction of solar into rural areas. The ability to provide agricultural jobs in addition to solar energy from a plot of land will pave the way for greater adoption of photovoltaics in rural areas. A cost effective and highly durable hybrid power generating high tunnel greenhouse will be developed that generates electricity at less than $2.50/watt INSTALLED cost and can be used for crop production of high values crops. The high tunnel will use a new design of Soliculture greenhouse integrated luminescent solar panels to selectively absorb the green portion of the solar spectrum that is not used by plants and convert the light to red light with higher photosynthetic efficiency and to enhance power output of solar cells. Green light is selectively downshifted to red light using luminescent materials that match the photosythetically active region for plants and the efficiency maximum of Si photovoltaic cells. The color tuning associated with converting green light to red light has been shown to facilitate fruit production in commercial greenhouses growing cucumbers, lettuce and herbs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling

As the US moves closer to embracing a net zero greenhouse gas emissions position, combustion processes outside the power sector are becoming urgent concerns. Industry is an important end user of energy and relies on fossil fuels used directly for process heating and as feedstocks for a diverse range of applications. Fuel and energy use by industry is heterogeneous, meaning that even a single product group can vary broadly in its production routes and associated energy usage. In the US, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) serves as the basis for data collection and reporting. In turn, data based on NAICS is the foundation of most US energy modeling. Thus, the effectiveness of NAICS at representing energy use is a limiting condition for plans to improve energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil fuels in industry. Facility-level data to build more detail into heterogeneous sectors is scarce. This work explores alternative classification schemes for industry based on energy use characteristics, and provides a validation of an approach to make facility-level energy use estimates based on publicly available data from the greenhouse gas reporting program. First, several approaches to industrial taxonomies and their usefulness for industrial energy modeling are summarized. Data from Industrial Assessment Centers is analyzed using unsupervised machine learning techniques to detect clusters. Cladistics, an approach from biology, is adapted to energy and process characteristics of industries. A cladogram is presented for evolutionary directions in the iron and steel sector. Cladograms are a promising tool for constructing scenarios and summarizing directions of sectoral innovation. Finally, validation is performed for facility-level energy estimates from the US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. This validation assists in making this data source available for use in energy modeling. Together, this work explores alternative approaches for categorizing industries in a way that aids understanding energy use, and presenting pathways for the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing Carbon: A Review of Current Technologies for Transform-ing Methane into Value-added Products

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. This review investigates biotechnology that has promising potential to aid in the mitigation of the negative effects methane has on the environment by exploring microorganisms, specifically methanotrophs, for their ability to convert methane into secondary value-added products that can be used for a wide range of applications. Methane as a feedstock could provide financial benefits due to the vast amount of methane available from sources like landfills, wastewater treatment plants, and agricultural sites. Furthermore, this review will look at the prospects of bioreactor technology and the potential for more environmentally friendly plastics, such as polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), to shy away from traditional petroleum-based plastics. The continuous advancement of bioreactor technology is crucial to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Abstract Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha −1 year −1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha −1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO 2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Mayer, Allegra↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon-Assisted, Continuous Syngas Production in a Chemical Looping Scheme

In the current energy and environment scenario, it is imperative to develop energy efficient routes for chemical manufacturing that also pave the way for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This work presents an efficient pathway for continuous syngas production via a chemical looping conversion of the two most potent greenhouse gases—CH 4 , and CO 2 . The well-known dry-reforming process of converting CH 4 , and CO 2 to syngas is energy-intensive and suffers from catalyst deactivation. The chemical looping approach, on the other hand, provides avenues for mitigating catalyst deactivation and enabling improved energy efficiency. The key to such process enhancements lies in the intricate structure–function relationships of the catalyst and its correlation to the process variables. We present the reduction and oxidation characteristics of 5 wt.% Ni/Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 -based catalysts (x = 0, 0.4, and 0.625). We demonstrate low temperature CH4 activation over Ni-promoted samples as opposed to pure Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 . Moreover, our results depict an optimum regeneration of these catalysts when oxidized by CO 2 , and H 2 O, which allows for chemical looping operation of steam reforming of methane as well. Process variables were tuned to optimize the CH 4 conversion (over 80%), and H 2 /CO ratio at 650 °C. The critical surface reactions—carbon accumulation and gasification, and thermocatalytic CO 2 splitting were investigated to elucidate the dynamic nature of the catalyst surface. In conclusion, the impact of this work lies in showcasing the opportunities to design chemical looping reactors for energy efficient syngas production from waste greenhouse gases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) andmethane (CH 4 ) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO 2 uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH 4 emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH 4 emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m –2 year –1 . In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO 2 changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m –2 year –1 to a source of 369.6 gCm –2 year –1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH 4 and the sink strength of CO 2 . Here, we conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH 4 fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influences of Hillslope Biogeochemistry on Anaerobic Soil Organic Matter Decomposition in a Tundra Watershed

In this work, we investigated rates and controls on greenhouse gas (CO 2 and CH 4 ) production in two contrasting water-saturated tundra soils within a permafrost-affected watershed near Nome, Alaska, United States. Three years of field sample analysis have shown that soil from a fen-like area in the toeslope of the watershed had higher pH and higher porewater ion concentrations than soil collected from a bog-like peat plateau at the top of the hillslope. The influence of these contrasting geochemical and topographic environments on CO 2 and CH 4 production was tested in soil microcosms by incubating both the organic- and mineral-layer soils anaerobically for 55 days. Additionally, nitrogen (as NH 4 Cl) was added to half of the microcosms to test potential effects of N limitation on microbial greenhouse gas production. We found that the organic toeslope soils produced more CO 2 and CH 4 , fueled by higher pH and higher concentrations of water-extractable organic C (WEOC). Our results also indicate N limitation on CO 2 production in the peat plateau soils but not the toeslope soils. Together these results suggest that the weathering and leaching of ions and nutrients from tundra hillslopes can increase the rate of anaerobic soil organic matter decomposition in downslope soils by (1) increasing the pH of soil porewater; (2) providing bioavailable WEOC and fermentation products such as acetate; and (3) relieving microbial N limitation through nutrient runoff. We conclude that the soil geochemistry as mediated by landscape position is an important factor influencing the rate and magnitude of greenhouse gas production in tundra soils.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Depth-resolved carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in 522 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs worldwide

Lakes, ponds, and reservoirs (hereafter: “lakes”) are important sources of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from lakes are regulated in part by in-lake processes, including the production and storage of gases in the lower parts of the water column (bottom waters). However, while substantial efforts have been made to improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, limited data on gas concentrations along depth profiles have prevented the incorporation of bottom-water processes in global emission estimates. Here, we present GHG-depths: the largest existing dataset of depth-profile CO 2 and CH 4 measurements worldwide, including 522 lakes across 38 countries and all seven continents. These data include contributions from 45 research teams and 56 published studies, totaling 2558 discrete sampling events. As global change continues to alter biogeochemical cycling in lakes, these data can help improve mechanistic models to better predict greenhouse gas production and emission from lakes worldwide.

Rabaey, Joseph S. [University of Minnesota, Duluth↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dichotomy between freshwater and heat flux effects on oceanic conveyor belt stability and global climate

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is an important global-scale oceanic circulation, and its changes may be responsible for past abrupt climate change events. By using two versions of a coupled climate model, here we show that the stability of this circulation depends not only on the background climate, but also on the type of primary external forcing: freshwater vs. greenhouse gases. When freshwater forcing is dominant, hysteresis of this circulation (an abrupt collapse/reactivation) becomes possible only under simulated glacial conditions with closed Bering Strait. Under present day and future conditions, both freshwater and greenhouse gas forcings could collapse this circulation, but only greenhouse gas forcing produced a bi-stable equilibrium state comparable to abrupt climate change. Our results demonstrate that the Bering Strait status (open vs. closed) may facilitate or prohibit the existence of this circulation’s hysteresis, irrespective of the background climate conditions, but is directly related to the primary forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards cost-competitive middle distillate fuels from ethanol within a market-flexible C2 platform-based biorefinery concept

Ethanol to middle distillates (ETMD) is a promising pathway to produce sustainable liquid fuels to decarbonize the hard-to-electrify transportation sectors due to (1) the abundant sugar/starch and lignocellulosic biomass, (2) the existing deployment scale of fuel ethanol production (similar to 29 billion gallons per year globally), and (3) emerging opportunities in C2+ alcohol synthesis from CO2. Here we report a conceptual market-responsive biorefinery centered around a new ETMD pathway based on one-step ethanol to butene-rich olefins (ETO) over a Cu-Zn-Y/Beta catalyst. Specifically, this ethanol conversion pathway comprises one-step ETO, oligomerization, and hydrotreating. This ETO is distinct from that in the conventional ethanol-to-jet process which is based on two-step ethanol to ethylene and ethylene oligomerization to butenes. Butene-rich olefins can be shifted to butadiene-rich products by simply changing the reaction atmosphere from hydrogen to inert gas over the same ETO catalyst. Leveraging the experimental results, baseline techno-economic analysis (TEA) and sensitivity analysis indicate that the ethanol conversion cost is $0.60 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), with opportunities for further cost reduction via improving the liquid hydrocarbon yield and space velocities, and process optimization on balancing dewatering of ethanol feed prior to the ETO step. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of liquid hydrocarbons derived from corn starch ethanol with butadiene as coproduct is $1.64 per GGE, in the range that is cost competitive with petroleum kerosene-type jet fuel. Projected MFSP for cellulosic ethanol (corn stover) derived hydrocarbons is below $3.00 per GGE and co-production of butadiene further reduces the MFSP to $1.70 per GGE. The Well-to-Wake life-cycle analysis indicates that 85% greenhouse gas emission reduction can be achieved when using corn stover compared to petroleum reference and the associated carbon credits will provide significant economic incentives to favor the cellulosic ethanol-derived hydrocarbon fuels. This study demonstrates a low-cost pathway to middle distillate fuels leveraging existing ethanol infrastructure, where catalysis innovation drives the reduction of process complexity and flexible coproduction of a value-added chemical product.

Zhang, Junyan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: a comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

Abstract A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 . Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. These data are used to parameterize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO 2 and CH 4 measurements. We use Q 10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses because this metric is commonly used in biological and Earth system sciences and is an important parameter in many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q 10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO 2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ , and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q 10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q 10 , these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory ( n = 1110) and field ( n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH 4 Q 10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗