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LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield

This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.

Christopher O Johnston↗

Asymptotically compatible reproducing kernel collocation and meshfree integration for the peridynamic Navier equation

Here, we study reproducing kernel (RK) collocation method for peridynamic Navier equation. In the first part, we apply a linear RK approximation to both displacement and dilatation, and then back-substitute dilatation and solve the peridynamic Navier equation in a pure displacement form. The RK collocation scheme converges to the nonlocal limit for a fixed nonlocal interaction length and also to the local limit as nonlocal interactions vanish. The stability is shown by comparing the collocation scheme with the standard Galerkin scheme using Fourier analysis. In the second part, we apply the RK collocation to the quasi-discrete peridynamic Navier equation and show its convergence to the correct local limit when the ratio between the nonlocal length scale and the discretization parameter is fixed. The analysis is carried out on a special family of rectilinear Cartesian grids for the RK collocation method with a designated kernel with finite support. We assume the Lamé parameters satisfy λ ≥ μ to avoid extra assumptions on the nonlocal kernel. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to validate the theoretical results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

RELAP-7 Application and Enhancement for FLEX Strategies and ATF Behavior under Extended Loss of AC Power Conditions

This report summarizes the results of a three-year research project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) to enhance and apply the RELAP-7 code by adding and improving several important components (e.g., a mechanistic Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) system model) for thermal hydraulic studies of LWRs under ELAP conditions and evaluating the time available for transition to portable FLEX equipment. The project team included University of Massachusetts–Lowell, The Ohio State University, Texas A&M University, Idaho National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In the Fukushima accident, it was found that the RCIC system played a crucial role in delaying core meltdown by almost three days in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2, because of self-regulated operation of the steam driven RCIC turbine-pump injection system. Steam flow in the convergent-divergent nozzles of the RCIC Terry turbine is two-phase non-equilibrium transonic flow with homogenous nucleation condensation. To more accurately predict the dynamic process and behavior of the transonic compressible steam flow, a one-dimensional transient two-phase analytical model is presented. A simplified four-fluid model was employed in the present work with the consideration of four separate fluid fields: vapor, liquid film, entrained droplets and condensed droplets. The mass, momentum and energy interactions between the fluids were considered and modeled. An extended seven-equation non-equilibrium critical flow model was developed to obtain the critical pressure and velocities of each phase at the nozzle throat. To predict the wetness in the divergent section, a mechanistic nucleation condensation model was integrated in the nozzle analysis model, considering the generation and consequent growth of droplets. The governing differential equations on a staggered grid were discretized using the second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme with a flux limiter, and the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE) algorithm was employed to solve the discrete linear system. To demonstrate the predictability and reliability of the physical models and the numerical method proposed in the present work, three representative nozzles were modeled and simulated. The results show good agreement with the available experimental data, even for condensation shock. Then, the 1D nozzle model was employed to obtain nozzle flow tables of the Terry turbine nozzle for different working pressures which can cover the operation pressure range of the RCIC system. A mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump system model was developed and implemented in the system code TRACE to simulate dynamic responses of the RCIC system under Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) conditions. The turbine-pump governing equations are based on the control volume approach of the angular momentum balance. The physics based mechanistic RCIC model was developed using the TRACE control system components (i.e., signal variables, control blocks, and tables), and incorporated into a TRACE boiling water reactor (BWR) model. The TRACE model in this report has a detailed nodalization of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV), and all of the major flow paths and system components, including the safety relief valves (SRVs) and the containment suppression pool and drywell. Based on the nozzle flow tables generated from the 1D nozzle model developed, the turbine drive torque can be calculated from table lookup. Since the detailed specifications of the RCIC pump are unavailable, the homologous curves for a Bingham pump were used in the current pump component. A station black-out (SBO) accident test problem was selected to demonstrate the TRACE RCIC model. The short-term SBO simulations were performed for two cladding materials: Zircaloy and FeCrAl, to demonstrate the effect of the accident tolerant fuel cladding on fuel heat-up under BDBA accident conditions. The wetwell plays a vital safety role in SBO and other BWR accident scenarios in that it can reduce containment pressure and supply additional core make-up water. The suppression pool temperature distribution has a very large impact on both RPV and containment pressure. Thus, another novel contribution of the project comes mainly from an improved, systems-level wetwell model which can capture buoyancy-induced thermal stratification effects due to steam injection and condensation. A two-zone stratified wetwell model has been implemented in RELAP-7 and some results from that model are presented. This wetwell model is capable of simulating thermal stratification due to a low steam mass injection rate. With a low mass flow rate, the model assumes that all the steam condenses within the pipe and the resulting plume can be approximated with a purely buoyant, heat-source driven model. The wetwell model developed with these assumptions is adequate to simulate slow transients such as extended SBO transients.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Session on High Speed Civil Transport Design Capability Using MDO and High Performance Computing

Since the inception of CAS in 1992, NASA Langley has been conducting research into applying multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) and high performance computing toward reducing aircraft design cycle time. The focus of this research has been the development of a series of computational frameworks and associated applications that increased in capability, complexity, and performance over time. The culmination of this effort is an automated high-fidelity analysis capability for a high speed civil transport (HSCT) vehicle installed on a network of heterogeneous computers with a computational framework built using Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) and Java. The main focus of the research in the early years was the development of the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and associated HSCT applications. While the FIDO effort was eventually halted, work continued on HSCT applications of ever increasing complexity. The current application, HSCT4.0, employs high fidelity CFD and FEM analysis codes. For each analysis cycle, the vehicle geometry and computational grids are updated using new values for design variables. Processes for aeroelastic trim, loads convergence, displacement transfer, stress and buckling, and performance have been developed. In all, a total of 70 processes are integrated in the analysis framework. Many of the key processes include automatic differentiation capabilities to provide sensitivity information that can be used in optimization. A software engineering process was developed to manage this large project. Defining the interactions among 70 processes turned out to be an enormous, but essential, task. A formal requirements document was prepared that defined data flow among processes and subprocesses. A design document was then developed that translated the requirements into actual software design. A validation program was defined and implemented to ensure that codes integrated into the framework produced the same results as their standalone counterparts. Finally, a Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) configuration management system was used to organize the software development. A computational environment, CJOPT, based on the Common Object Request Broker Architecture, CORBA, and the Java programming language has been developed as a framework for multidisciplinary analysis and Optimization. The environment exploits the parallelisms inherent in the application and distributes the constituent disciplines on machines best suited to their needs. In CJOpt, a discipline code is "wrapped" as an object. An interface to the object identifies the functionality (services) provided by the discipline, defined in Interface Definition Language (IDL) and implemented using Java. The results of using the HSCT4.0 capability are described. A summary of lessons learned is also presented. The use of some of the processes, codes, and techniques by industry are highlighted. The application of the methodology developed in this research to other aircraft are described. Finally, we show how the experience gained is being applied to entirely new vehicles, such as the Reusable Space Transportation System. Additional information is contained in the original.

Rehder, Joe↗

Parametric Study of a YAV-8B Harrier in Ground Effect using Time-Dependent Navier-Stokes Computations

A process is described which enables the generation of 35 time-dependent viscous solutions for a YAV-8B Harrier in ground effect in one week. Overset grids are used to model the complex geometry of the Harrier aircraft and the interaction of its jets with the ground plane and low-speed ambient flow. The time required to complete this parametric study is drastically reduced through the use of process automation, modern computational platforms, and parallel computing. Moreover, a dual-time-stepping algorithm is described which improves solution robustness. Unsteady flow visualization and a frequency domain analysis are also used to identify and correlated key flow structures with the time variation of lift.

Pandya, Shishir↗

Forebody and Inlet Design for the HIFiRE 2 Flight Test

A forebody and inlet have been designed for the HIFiRE 2 scramjet flight test. The test will explore the operating, performance, and stability characteristics of a simple hydrocarbon-fueled scramjet combustor as it transitions from dual-mode to scramjet-mode operation and during supersonic combustion at Mach 8+ flight conditions. Requirements for the compression system were derived from inlet starting and combustor inflow requirements as well as physical size constraints. The design process is described. A planar, fixed geometry, mixed compression concept was used to produce laterally uniform flow at the inlet entrance and a conservative amount of internal contraction with respect to inlet starting. A grid sensitivity study was performed so that important flow physics caused by three-dimensional shock boundary layer interactions could be captured with confidence. Results from low Mach number operability studies, nominal trajectory cases, and high dynamic pressure heat load cases are discussed. The forebody and inlet solutions provide information for on-going combustor calculations, mass capture across the trajectory for fuel system design, and surface heating rates for thermal/structural analysis. The design has a one freestream Mach number margin for inlet starting, exceeds the high Mach number combustor entrance pressure requirement, produces high quality flow at the inlet exit for all Mach numbers and vehicle attitudes in the design space, and fits inside the booster shroud.

Ferlemann, Paul G.↗

High-Fidelity Analysis of Lift+Cruise VTOL Urban Air Mobility Concept Aircraft

This paper presents a high-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis for the NASA lift+cruise vertical takeoff and landing urban air mobility concept aircraft. The reported simulations couple comprehensive rotorcraft aeromechanics and high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Aerodynamic solutions are computed on dynamic, deforming, unstructured, overset grid systems by an unsteady CFD solver, FUN3D, developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. An integrated overset-grid assembler, Yoga, is used for communications between component grids. Two turbulence models are compared for loose-coupling simulations in hover and low-speed forward flight conditions. One model is the negative variant of the one-equation Spalart-Allmaras model (SA-neg), and the other model is the SA-neg-R model adding a simple rotation correction term to the SA-neg model. It demonstrated that the rotation correction in the SA-neg-R turbulence model significantly improves resolution of secondary vortices and wake interactions for rotorcraft simulations.

CFD↗

High-Fidelity Analysis of Lift+Cruise VTOL Urban Air Mobility Concept Aircraft

This paper presents a high-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis for the NASA Lift+Cruise vertical takeoff and landing urban air mobility concept aircraft. The reported simulations couple comprehensive rotorcraft aeromechanics and high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Aerodynamic solutions are computed on dynamic, deforming, unstructured, overset grid systems by an unsteady CFD solver, FUN3D, developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. An integrated overset-grid assembler, Yoga, is used for communications between component grids. Two turbulence models are compared for loose-coupling simulations in hover and low-speed forward flight conditions. One model is the negative variant of the one-equation Spalart-Allmaras model (SA-neg), and the other model is the SA-neg-R model adding a simple rotation correction term to the SA-neg model. It demonstrated that the rotation correction in the SA-neg-R turbulence model significantly improves resolution of secondary vortices and wake interactions for rotorcraft simulations.

CFD↗

Space Shuttle and Launch Pad Computational Fluid Dynamics Model for Lift-off Debris Transport Analysis

This paper discusses the Space Shuttle Lift-off CFD model developed for potential Lift-off Debris transport for return-to-flight. The Lift-off portion of the flight is defined as the time starting with tanking of propellants until tower clear, approximately T0+6 seconds, where interactions with the launch pad cease. A CFD model containing the Space Shuttle and launch Pad geometry has been constructed and executed. Simplifications required in the construction of the model are presented and discussed. A body-fitted overset grid of up to 170 million grid points was developed which allowed positioning of the Vehicle relative to the Launch Pad over the first six seconds of Climb-Out. The CFD model works in conjunction with a debris particle transport model and a debris particle impact damage tolerance model. These models have been used to assess the interactions of the Space Shuttle plumes, the wind environment, and their interactions with each other and the Launch Pad and their ultimate effect on potential debris during Lift-off.

Dougherty, Sam↗

Jet streak circulations associated with a moderate snowfall event as diagnosed from NGM model output

The existence, evolution, and interaction of vertical circulations associated with upper-level jet streaks during a moderate snowfall event are diagnosed using a nested grid model (NGM). The event itself is overviewed, and the diagnosis of transverse circulations utilizing NGM output is discussed. Focus is placed on the identification of the horizontal and vertical components of the circulation, the temporal evolution of the circulation, and the comparison of the circulation from successive model forecasts. A preliminary analysis of the model data indicates that the horizontal and vertical branches of the circulations can be diagnosed from the model output, and the horizontal and vertical components of the circulations may be identified and followed during an individual forecast cycle.

Kocin, Paul J.↗

Surface waves affect frontogenesis

Here, this paper provides a detailed analysis of momentum, angular momentum, vorticity, and energy budgets of a submesoscale front undergoing frontogenesis driven by an upper–ocean, submesoscale eddy field in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The LES solves the wave–averaged, or Craik–Leibovich, equations in order to account for the Stokes forces that result from interactions between nonbreaking surface waves and currents, and resolves both submesoscale eddies and boundary layer turbulence down to 4.9 m × 4.9 m × 1.25 m grid scales. It is found that submesoscale frontogenesis differs from traditional frontogenesis theory due to four effects: Stokes forces, momentum and kinetic energy transfer from submesoscale eddies to frontal secondary circulations, resolved turbulent stresses, and unbalanced torque. In the energy, momentum, angular momentum, and vorticity budgets for the frontal overturning circulation, the Stokes shear force is a leading–order contributor, typically either the second or third largest source of frontal overturning. These effects violate hydrostatic and thermal wind balances during submesoscale frontogenesis. The effect of the Stokes shear force becomes stronger with increasing alignment of the front and Stokes shear and with a nondimensional scaling. The Stokes shear force and momentum transfer from submesoscale eddies significantly energize the frontal secondary circulation along with the buoyancy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimum design of geodesically stiffened composite plates

With the goal of tailorability in mind, the in-plane stiffness characteristics of a particular grid stiffened plate configuration under axial and shear loads have been studied. The contribution of the skin to the stiffener network and the resultant skin/rib interaction is analyzed. For the given plate geometry and loads, it is shown that an optimum configuration does exist. To achieve optimally designed practical plate configurations, buckling constraints need to be included in the design. Due to the complex geometry and loading of the plates, a simplified local buckling analysis of isolated stiffeners and triangular skin elements between the stiffeners is considered. Development of a stiffener buckling analysis represent stiffeners as shear deformable plate elements is presented.

Guerdal, Zafer↗

A Spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System

Emerging technologies have provided unprecedented opportunities to transform information into knowledge and disseminate them in a much faster, cheaper, and userfriendly mode. We have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind data from the NASA Scatterometer and European Remote Sensing missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from an improved sensor SeaWinds on the Quikscat Mission. The wind field will be combined with hydrologic parameters from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission to monitor evolving weather systems and natural hazard in real time. It will form the basis for spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System (SOSEDAS) which will include the production of ocean surface momentum, heat, and water fluxes needed for interdisciplinary studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction. Various commercial or non-commercial software tools have been compared and selected in terms of their ability in database management, remote data accessing, graphical interface, data quality, storage needs and transfer speed, etc. Issues regarding system security and user authentication, distributed data archiving and accessing, strategy to compress large-volume geophysical and satellite data/image. and increasing transferring speed are being addressed. A simple and easy way to access information and derive knowledge from spacebased data of multiple missions is being provided. The evolving 'knowledge system' will provide relevant infrastructure to address Earth System Science, make inroads in educating an informed populace, and illuminate decision and policy making.

Tang, Wenqing↗

Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production

There are growing needs to understand how extreme weather events impact the electrical grid. Renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaics are expanding in use to help sustainably meet electricity demands. Wildfires and, notably, the widespread smoke resulting from them, are one such extreme event that can impair the performance of solar photovoltaics. However, isolating the impact that smoke has on photovoltaic energy production, separate from ambient conditions, can be difficult. In this work, we seek to understand and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production within the Western United States. Our analysis focuses on the construction of a random forest regression model to predict overall solar photovoltaic production. The model is used to separate and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke in particular. To do so, we fuse historical weather, solar photovoltaic energy production, and PM2.5 particulate matter (primary smoke pollutant) data to train and test our model. The additional weather data allows us to capture interactions between wildfire smoke and other ambient conditions, as well as to create a more powerful predictive model capable of better quantifying the impacts of wildfire smoke on its own. We find that solar PV energy production decreases 8.3% on average during high smoke days at PV sites as compared to similar conditions without smoke present. Finally, this work allows us to improve our understanding of the potential impact on photovoltaic-based energy production estimates due to wildfire events and can help inform grid and operational planning as solar photovoltaic penetration levels continue to grow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

URBANopt: An Open-Source Software Development Kit for Community and Urban District Energy Modeling: Preprint

Urban building modeling tools are developing rapidly; these tools use emerging simulation workflows for specific urban environmental design tasks, such as assessing the impacts of energy efficiency technologies at a district scale. However, with the emergence of new environmental design tasks, addressing all possible use cases and tasks is challenging and cannot be covered by a single tool. Urban-scale analysis at this level of complexity often requires linking multiple emerging tools, rather than using a single tool, to adequately evaluate a variety of possible fields in urban environmental design. To achieve this, flexible platforms are needed to support multiple input formats (e.g., geometric and non-geometric building properties), enabling the mapping of such inputs to underlying simulation engines. This paper provides an overview of the open-source URBANopt Software Development Kit (SDK) for modeling high-performance buildings and energy systems at a district scale. URBANopt's flexible SDK is composed of several modules that can be customized to integrate with other tools and generate new workflows to perform urban environmental design tasks, such as capturing interactions between individual buildings, district energy systems, distributed energy resources, and the electric distribution grid. We describe the functionality of the core SDK modules in URBANopt (called Core Gem, GeoJSON Gem, and Scenario Gem) and discuss the flexibility of these modules as a means of integration with a variety of tools. We also document and demonstrate technical details of writing and combining new modules to create customized workflows. Finally, we present a case study that uses the URBANopt SDK to model a hypothetical mixed-use urban project and simulate various scenarios to meet district energy performance goals.

buildings↗

Fully coupled hydro-mechanical numerical manifold modeling of porous rock with dominant fractures

Coupled hydro-mechanical (HM) processes are significant in geological engineering such as oil and gas extraction, geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal and for the safety assessment of dam foundations and rock slopes, where the geological media usually consist of fractured rock masses. We developed a model for the analysis of coupled hydro-mechanical processes in porous rock containing dominant fractures, by using the numerical manifold method (NMM). In the current model, the fractures are regarded as different material domains from surrounding rock, i.e., finite-thickness fracture zones as porous media. Compared with the rock matrix, these fractured porous media are characterized with nonlinear behavior of hydraulic and mechanical properties, involving not only direct (poroelastic) coupling but also indirect (property change) coupling. By combining the potential energy associated with mechanical responses, fluid flow and solid–fluid interactions, a new formulation for direct HM coupling in porous media is established. For indirect coupling associated with fracture opening/closure, we developed a new approach implicitly considering the nonlinear properties by directly assembling the corresponding strain energy. Compared with traditional methods with approximation of the nonlinear constitutive equations, this new formulation achieves a more accurate representation of the nonlinear behavior. We implemented the new model for coupled HM analysis in NMM, which has fixed mathematical grid and accurate integration, and developed a new computer code. We tested the code for direct coupling on two classical poroelastic problems with coarse mesh and compared the results with the analytical solutions, achieving excellent agreement, respectively. We tested for indirect coupling on models with a single dominant fracture and obtained reasonable results. The current poroelastic NNM model with a continuous finite-thickness fracture zone will be further developed considering thin fractures in a discontinuous approach for a comprehensive model for HM analysis in fractured porous rock masses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗