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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Case Study Investigating the Low Summertime CAPE Behavior in the Global Forecast System

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important index for storm forecasting. Recent versions (v15.2 and v16) of the Global Forecast System (GFS) predict lower values of CAPE during summertime in the continental United States than analysis and observation. We conducted an evaluation of the GFS in simulating summertime CAPE using an example from the Unified Forecast System Case Study collection to investigate the factors that lead to the low CAPE bias in GFS. Specifically, we investigated the surface energy budget, soil properties, and near-surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Results show that the GFS simulates smaller surface latent heat flux and larger surface sensible heat flux than the observations. This can be attributed to the slightly drier-than-observed soil moisture in the GFS that comes from an offline global land data assimilation system. The lower simulated CAPE in GFS v16 is related to the early drop of surface net radiation with excessive boundary layer cloud after midday when compared with GFS v15.2. A moisture-budget analysis indicates that errors in the large-scale advection of water vapor does not contribute to the dry bias in the GFS at low levels. Common Community Physics Package single-column model (SCM) experiments suggest that with realistic initial vertical profiles, SCM simulations generate a larger CAPE than runs with GFS IC. SCM runs with an active LSM tend to produce smaller CAPE than that with prescribed surface fluxes. Note that the findings are only applicable to this case study. Including more warm-season cases would enhance the generalizability of our findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heat Transfer and Pressure Drop Characteristics of Water Flow Boiling in Internally Enhanced Tubes

Flow boiling is a critical process for many thermal conversion processes such as HVAC&R, water heating, power generation and desalination applications. The major goal of this paper is to enhance the in-tube heat transfer for flow boiling of water and further improve the efficiency of the boiler. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics for water under forced convection and boiling conditions inside both smooth and enhanced tubes. The results in the smooth copper tube are compared with several correlations and used as a baseline. The two-phase heat transfer and pressure drop performance of the water flow boiling in the internally enhanced tube is investigated, and the influence of internal surface pattern on the thermal characteristics is discussed. The relations of the heat transfer coefficient with mass flux, heat flux and vapor quality are analyzed according to the results.

Yang, Cheng-Min↗
DOE OSTI2024

Porous mesh manifold for enhanced boiling performance

High-performance electronics are continuously demanding cooling of higher heat fluxes. Phase-change cooling, including pool boiling, is a useful approach to address this challenge; however, competition between liquid and vapor flows generally limit the heat fluxes that can be dissipated. A range of strategies to control these flows have been investigated previously, including capillary guides. Here a manifold structure formed from a metallic mesh is investigated to control the disposition of liquid and vapor phases above a pool fed boiling surface enhanced with porous structures. Copper mesh forms defined liquid flow paths, using capillary action to guide and distribute liquid evenly over the heated surface, along with open channels to facilitate vapor escape. The mesh provides a novel structure for liquid guidance that imposes low resistance to liquid flow while occluding a minimal area of heated surface underneath. The manifold performance is characterized in boiling fed by a pool of water above a laser-textured aluminum nitride heat dissipation surface with pin–fin structures having heights of 110 µm and spacing of 30 µm with a heated area of 5 mm x 5 mm. A maximum heat flux of 490 W/cm 2 is reached with the manifold in the pool fed configuration, representing an increase of more than 65% over the porous pin fin surface alone. The maximum stable superheat observed for the manifold of 36K is 14K higher than that for the porous surface without the manifold. The factors limiting performance of the manifold are analyzed. High superheat is attributed to partial flooding of the boiling surface as suggested by the reduction in superheat using external suction. Similar systems and structures for enhanced two-phase cooling are compared.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling perennial bioenergy crops in the E3SM land model (ELMv2)

Perennial bioenergy crops are increasingly important for the production of ethanol and other renewable fuels, and as part of an agricultural system that alters the climate through its impact on biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of the terrestrial ecosystem. Few earth system models (ESMs) represent such crops, however. In this study, we expand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2) to include perennial bioenergy crops with a high potential for mitigating climate change. We focus on high-productivity miscanthus and switchgrass, estimating various parameters associated with their different growth stages and performing a global sensitivity analysis to identify and optimize these parameters. The sensitivity analysis identifies five parameters associated with phenology, carbon/nitrogen allocation, stomatal conductance, and maintenance respiration as the most sensitive parameters for carbon and energy fluxes. We calibrated and validated the model against observations and found that the model closely captures the observed seasonality and the magnitude of carbon fluxes. The validated model represents the latent heat flux fairly well, but sensible heat flux for miscanthus is not well captured. Finally, we validated the model against observed leaf area index (LAI) and harvest amount and found modeled LAI captured observed seasonality , although the model underestimates LAI and harvest amount. This work provides a foundation for future ESM analyses of the interactions between perennial bioenergy crops and carbon, water, and energy dynamics in the larger earth system, and sets the stage for studying the impact of future biofuel expansion on climate and terrestrial systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal properties of U-Mo alloys irradiated under high fission power density

A variety of physical and thermal property measurements made on irradiated U-Mo alloy monolithic fuel samples with a Zr diffusion barrier and clad in Al alloy 6061 are reported. These properties form the basis for additional investigations in thermal behavior of U-Mo fuel under high performance research reactor irradiation conditions. Measurements were performed on samples harvested from fuel plates irradiated under high fission power density and surface heat flux and complement previous measurements on samples subjected to moderate fission power density and surface heat flux. Specific heat capacity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increases with increasing temperature and fission density, but carries large uncertainties associated with thickness measurements used to determine the mass fraction of the layer constituents for extraction of the U-Mo specific heat capacity, specifically the very thin and nonuniform Zr diffusion barrier. Density of irradiated monolithic U-Mo decreases with increasing fission density resulting from fission gas swelling and porosity formation. Thermal diffusivity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing fission density. Thermal conductivity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increased with increasing temperature, and in general, appeared to decrease and become less sensitive to temperature with increasing fission density. Thermal conductivity measurements compared to a semi-empirical model agreed within ±30%. It is suspected that the main driver in deviation between model calculations and measurements is the fission gas swelling determination, which does not account for fission power density or irradiation temperature.

uranium (U), molybdenum, nuclear fuel, thermal con↗
DOE OSTI2022

3D ion gyro-orbit heat load predictions for NSTX-U

Abstract High power tokamaks operate with divertor heat loads capable of destroying the plasma facing components (PFCs). High fidelity heat load predictions are necessary to ascertain the PFC state for design and during operation. Typical heat flux calculations are 2D, time invariant, and assume that power flows directly along the magnetic field lines (the optical approximation). These assumptions neglect the complex 3D geometries employed to protect the PFCs, the time varying nature of the plasma and PFC thermal state, and the helical trajectories of ions with finite Larmor radii (the gyro-orbit approximation). An integrated software framework, the heat flux engineering analysis toolkit (HEAT), was developed to generate time varying optical heat loads applied to real engineering computer aided design (CAD) (Looby et al 2022 Fusion Sci. Technol. 78 10–27). Recently, an ion-gyro orbit module has been added to HEAT. This module calculates the helical trajectories of ions as they gyrate about the magnetic field lines using kinetic theory macro-particles to accelerate the calculation. First, the new gyro-orbit module will be presented. Next, a comparison to existing research is performed. Finally, an analysis of the gyro-orbit heat loads for NSTX-U is presented for diverted discharges using the engineering CAD models utilized for PFC fabrication. Including these gyro-orbit effects can enhance the PFC performance by ‘smearing’ out the magnetic shadows associated with the castellated fish-scaled geometry. Simultaneously, the helical trajectories can degrade performance when they load narrow regions on edges and corners with high heat fluxes. Analysis of the trade-offs between these competing effects is included, and regions for further investigation are identified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Liquid lithium divertor analysis using coupled plasma material interaction model

A liquid lithium divertor can improve performance of future fusion devices by creating efficient power exhaust and improving the energy confinement via pumping of the hydrogen isotopes. In addition, significantly higher heat fluxes can be handled if controlled vapor shielding is used to redistribute the divertor heat flux over a wider area. Design and optimization of such a system calls for an analysis model which includes a strong two-way coupling between the plasma and divertor material. The incoming plasma heat and particle flux will affect the divertor surface temperature, which is a defining factor of the lithium evaporative and sputtered flux going into the plasma. Results of the coupled model based on the plasma edge code SOLPS-ITER and the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code ANSYS-CFX will be presented for different configurations. An analytical slab flow model is used as a heat transfer boundary condition for SOLPS, defining particle flux from the wall via calculation of the surface temperature. At the final step, results of the SOLPS analysis are verified using a 3D CFD magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) analysis which uses heat and particle flux from SOLPS as a boundary condition. In addition to plasma heat flux, both analytical and CFD temperature models include several plasma material interaction effects, such as lithium evaporation, condensation and sputtering based on deuterium target flux. New adatom sputtering model based on the available experimental data is presented. Analytical model is expanded to include free surface axisymmetric configurations. Results of parametric studies of the divertor configurations with different lithium inlet temperature and velocity will be presented leading to the optimal design resulting in the lowest possible lithium contamination in the core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Liquid Piston Compression Using Large-Eddy Simulation and Volume-of-Fluid Approach

Efforts to increase the efficiency of residential and commercial air conditioners and heat pumps have demonstrated that the compressor accounts for most of the system’s electrical energy usage. Therefore, the efficiency of this component should be improved to reduce its energy usage. The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed a near-isothermal liquid piston compressor (LPC) that uses propylene glycol (PG) to compress CO2. This report presents numerical studies of the LPC in which the compression chamber fills with injected PG from the bottom inlet. Numerical simulations were performed using the large-eddy simulation (LES) with the wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity (WALE) subgrid-scale model coupled with the multiphase volume-of-fluid (VOF) model to simulate the transient interface between gas and liquid and to capture the heat and mass transfer within the compression chamber. In this effort, effects of boundary conditions applied to the LES-VOF calculations (e.g., no wall, an adiabatic wall, and a wall with a heat flux subscribed) to the overall pressure and temperature of CO2 gas as well as the transient evolution of flow and heat transfer evolution within the compression chamber are investigated and discussed. It was found that the LES calculation with no wall have shown no dynamical flow patterns and the volume-averaged temperature of CO2 increased from 305 to 392.7 K, while LES calculations with a constant wall temperature or a wall heat flux had similar increases of CO2 temperatures. Results of LES simulation using a wall heat flux showed different stages in the compression process and revealed dynamical formation and interaction of CO2 gas layers and circulation flow patterns within the chamber that contribute to the overall heat transfer between the solid wall, gas, and liquid surface in the compressor.

Nguyen, Thien D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fully kinetic simulations of strong steady-state collisional planar plasma shocks

We report on simulations of strong, steady-state collisional planar plasma shocks with fully kinetic ions and electrons, independently confirmed by two fully kinetic codes (an Eulerian continuum and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell). While kinetic electrons do not fundamentally change the shock structure as compared with fluid electrons, we find an appreciable rearrangement of the preheat layer, associated with nonlocal electron heat transport effects. The electron heat-flux profile qualitatively agrees between kinetic- and fluid-electron models, suggesting a certain level of “stiffness,” though substantial nonlocality is observed in the kinetic heat flux. We also find good agreement with nonlocal electron heat-flux closures proposed in the literature. Finally, in contrast to the classical hydrodynamic picture, we find a significant collapse in the “precursor” electric-field shock at the preheat layer leading edge, which correlates with the electron-temperature gradient relaxation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Liquid Piston with Spray Cooling Near-Isothermal Compressor

The goal of this project was to prototype and characterize the performance of a liquid-piston spray-cooled gas compressor. The working principle of the compressor enables optimized high-efficiency operation over a very wide range of operating conditions, unlike conventional compressors that are optimized for a narrow range of operating conditions. The compressor technology is suitable for many applications, such as gas pipeline transport, gas storage, and commercial and residential heat pumps. Both physical testing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the processes using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory high-performance computing center were completed. The experimental and CFD studies focused on a near-isothermal liquid-piston compressor (LPC) that uses propylene glycol to compress CO 2 . The first prototype demonstrated isothermal operation during several sequentially executed cycles of CO 2 compression and raised the temperature of the compressed CO 2 by only 2 K, compared with approximately 6 K when the gas was compressed non-isothermally. Isothermal operation was demonstrated at CO 2 flow rates of up to 2 L/min. The second prototype was designed with two compression chambers to allow continuous flow of high-pressure CO 2 . However, the design of the valve train to direct flow between the compression chambers was not sufficient to allow demonstration of CO 2 compression. Numerical simulations of the LPC in which the compression chamber was filled with propylene glycol injected from the bottom inlet were performed using large eddy simulation (LES) with the wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity subgrid-scale model coupled with the multiphase volume of fluid (VOF) model to simulate the transient interface between gas and liquid and to capture the heat and mass transfers within the compression chamber. In this effort, the effects of boundary conditions applied to the LES-VOF calculations (i.e., no wall, an adiabatic wall, and a wall with a heat flux subscribed) on the overall pressure and temperature of the CO 2 gas as well as the transient evolution of flow and heat transfer within the compression chamber were investigated and are discussed in this report. The LES calculation with no wall showed no dynamical flow patterns, and the volume-averaged temperature of CO 2 increased from 305 to 392.7 K, whereas LES calculations with a constant wall temperature or a wall heat flux had similar increases of CO 2 temperatures. The results of the LES simulation using a wall heat flux showed different stages in the compression process and revealed dynamical formation and interaction of CO 2 gas layers and circulation flow patterns within the chamber that contributed to the overall heat transfer between the solid wall, gas, and liquid surface in the compressor. Though an industrial partnership for commercializing the compressor was not secured, the technology was attractive for an industrial partner to use in two research proposals in response to US Department of Energy funding opportunity announcements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental study of the influence of gas puff locations on H-mode boundary plasmas with argon seeding on EAST

To investigate the optimal scenario of impurity seeding to obtain divertor plasma detachment for target protection, experiments with Ar&D 2 seeding from two different poloidal locations, the upper outer (UO) divertor target and lower outer (LO) target, were carried out on EAST. Partial energy detachment (the electron temperature near the strike point T e,spt ≤ 10 eV) were obtained with Ar&D 2 mixture puffing from the UO target and, for the first time, from the LO target into H-mode plasmas in the upper single null (USN) configuration. The peak heat flux q t on the UO target was significantly reduced (by ~80%). The rollover of ion flux density j s did not appear probably due to insufficient momentum loss, which is independent of the puff locations. The poloidal asymmetries of particle and heat fluxes on the targets have also been investigated. The UO-dominant asymmetry of particle flux was reversed, while the UO-dominant asymmetry of heat flux was mitigated but not reversed. The plasma confinement dropped by only 14% and 8.2% in the LO-puff case and UO-puff case, respectively, during detachment. The high level of C may contributed greatly to the higher radiation in the bulk plasma region and the greater decline in W MHD in the LO-puff case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous Observations of Surface Layer Profiles of Humidity, Temperature, and Wind Using Scanning Lidar Instruments

We demonstrate the combination of three Doppler lidars (DLs), a water vapor differential absorption lidar and a temperature rotational Raman lidar for the investigation of the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. This combination of scanning lidars was operated for the first time during the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plain site, Oklahoma, USA, in August 2017, and provided simultaneous surface layer profiles of horizontal wind, humidity and temperature. The horizontal wind profiles were determined using the dual-Doppler method with two DLs. The scans were performed above four towers providing atmospheric variables and fluxes. These combined lidar data allowed for the estimation of the friction velocity as well as the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. For this purpose, profiles calculated with Monin-Obukhov similarity theory were fitted with the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least squares curve-fitting method to the measured surface-layer lidar profiles. We present case studies of three 50-min periods to illustrate the new method. The measurements resulted in friction velocities of 0.31, 0.29, and 0.38 ms –1 , sensible surface heat fluxes of 312.1, 234.1, and 183.3 Wm –2 and latent surface heat fluxes of 251.8, 227.3, and 274.4 Wm –2 . These values were compared with the in-situ measurements of the towers. Considering the sampling differences and the error analyses, the results agree within 25.1%, 42.5%, and 28.8%, respectively, demonstrating that this synergy of scanning active remote sensing systems can be used to derive surface fluxes with reasonable accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of pellet mass thresholds for ELM triggering in low-collisionality, ITER-like discharges

Abstract In ITER, pellets are calculated to require more than 8 times the mass than currently planned to reliably trigger edge-localized modes (ELMs). Unmitigated heat flux impulses from ELMs are intolerable in ITER at full power and current. Therefore, ITER operation relies on multiple approaches to control ELM heat fluxes. One method is pellet ELM pacing to instigate small rapid ELMs with low heat flux. Predicting the performance of pellet pacing is critical for ITER, which is expected to operate in a regime with a low-collisionality, peeling-limited pedestal. However, to trigger ELMs the local pressure increase in the expanding pellet cloud pushes the equilibrium over the ballooning stability limit. In this work, linear and nonlinear M3D-C1 simulations are used to predict pellet mass thresholds in DIII-D discharges and ITER scenarios with peeling-limited pedestals. It is found that the distance of the equilibrium’s operational point from the ballooning branch of the pedestal stability boundary strongly changes thresholds. Linear M3D-C1 simulations find a strong dependence of the pellet mass threshold on the poloidal injection location for ITER’s 15 MA, Q = 10 scenario. The required pellet mass at the planned injection locations is 8 to 17 times larger than currently considered. However, such linear simulations do not include pellet ablation physics or time evolution of density and temperature. A new scheme of 2D nonlinear simulations, coupled with linear stability analysis at various steps throughout the nonlinear time evolution, was developed to include such physics and improve on the linear results. These new nonlinear-to-linear simulations confirm previous findings. This result suggests that pellet ELM triggering in ITER could require pellets much larger than those currently planned, which makes ELM-pacing operationally challenging. On the other hand, fueling pellets injected from the high-field side will likely not unintentionally trigger ELMs in an otherwise ELM-stable plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reversed-direction 2-point modelling applied to divertor conditions in DIII-D *

Abstract A predictive form of the extended 2-point model known as the ‘reverse 2-point model’, Rev2PM, is applied to a range of detachment levels in the open lower divertor of DIII-D, showing that the experimentally measured electron temperature ( T e ) and pressure ( p e ) at the divertor entrance can be calculated within 50% from target measurements, if and only if a posteriori corrections for convective heat flux are included in the model. Unlike the standard 2-point model, the Rev2PM calculates upstream scrape-off layer (SOL) quantities (such as separatrix T e and p e ) from target conditions (such as T e and parallel heat flux), with volumetric power and momentum losses depending solely on target T e . The Rev2PM is tested against a database of DIII-D inter-ELM divertor Thomson scattering measurements, built from a series of 6 MW, 1.3 MA, LSN H-mode discharges with varied main ion density, drift direction, and nitrogen puffing rate. Measured target T e ranged from 0.4–25 eV over this database, and upstream T e ranged from 5–60 eV. Poor agreement is found between upstream measurements and Rev2PM calculations that assume purely conductive parallel heat transport. However, introducing a posteriori corrections to account for convective heat transport brings the Rev2PM calculations within 50% of the measured upstream values across the dataset. These corrections imply that up to 99% of the parallel heat flux is carried by convection in detached conditions in the DIII-D open lower divertor, though further work is required to assess any potential dependencies on device size or divertor closure.

2-point model↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s Response to CO2 Increase: Assessing the Roles of Surface Flux and Oceanic Advection Feedbacks

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down in climate models due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the physical mechanisms determining the rate of the projected AMOC slowdown remain unclear. Accordingly, this study isolates the roles of oceanic advection and surface flux feedbacks that might accelerate or decelerate the AMOC’s weakening using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quadrupling simulations in the CESM1.2 model. Surface flux feedbacks are isolated in partially coupled experiments in which either all surface flux components or the momentum flux responses to AMOC’s weakening that might provide feedback are suppressed, while a tracer decomposition of ocean density anomalies isolates the advection feedbacks. Comparing the ocean density components in the experiments shows that the AMOC’s response is initially determined by CO 2 -induced anomalous surface heat fluxes, and afterward, feedbacks determine its response. In the fully coupled case, surface heat flux feedback strongly promotes AMOC slowdown and causes its near shutdown, while a weaker but active AMOC is maintained when the surface flux feedback is inhibited in the partially coupled case. The positive surface heat flux feedback works by canceling out the negative oceanic heat advection feedback on deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). With the heat advection feedback thus reduced, the positive salinity advection feedback becomes the dominant contributor to SPNA density changes and deep-water formation. In the partially coupled case, negative ocean heat advection feedback and the CO 2 -induced subtropical Atlantic saline anomalies imported into the SPNA play a stabilizing role. The results highlight the importance of SPNA salinity gradients and gyre circulation strength in determining the AMOC’s response rate or recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗