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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Line identification of boron and nitrogen emissions in EUV and VUV wavelength ranges in the impurity powder dropping experiments of LHD and its application to spectroscopic diagnostics

An impurity powder dropper was installed in the 21st campaign of the Large Helical Device experiment (Oct. 2019–Feb. 2020) under a collaboration between the National Institute for Fusion Science and the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory for the purposes of real-time wall conditioning and edge plasma control. In order to assess the effective injection of the impurity powders, spectroscopic diagnostics were applied to observe line emission from the injected impurity. Therefore, extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and vacuum-ultraviolet (VUV) emission spectra were analyzed to summarize observable impurity lines with B and BN powder injection. Emission lines released from B and N ions were identified in the EUV wavelength range of 5–300 Å measured using two grazing incidence flat-field EUV spectrometers and in the VUV wavelength range of 300–2400 Å measured using three normal incidence 20 cm VUV spectrometers. BI–BV and NIII–NVII emission lines were identified in the discharges with the B and BN powder injection, respectively. Useful B and N emission lines which have large intensities and are isolated from other lines were successfully identified as follows: BI (1825.89, 1826.40) Å (blended), BII 1362.46 Å, BIII (677.00, 677.14, 677.16) Å (blended), BIV 60.31 Å, BV 48.59 Å, NIII (989.79, 991.51, 991.58) Å (blended), NIV 765.15 Å, NV (209.27, 209.31) Å (blended), NVI 1896.80 Å, and NVII 24.78 Å. Applications of the line identifications to the advanced spectroscopic diagnostics were demonstrated, such as the vertical profile measurements for the BV and NVII lines using a space-resolved EUV spectrometer and the ion temperature measurement for the BII line using a normal incidence 3 m VUV spectrometer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Galaxy pairs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey – XV. Properties of ionized outflows

ABSTRACT Powerful outflows are thought to play a critical role in galaxy evolution and black hole growth. We present the first large-scale systematic study of ionized outflows in paired galaxies and post-mergers compared to a robust control sample of isolated galaxies. We isolate the impact of the merger environment to determine if outflow properties depend on merger stage. Our sample contains ∼4000 paired galaxies and ∼250 post-mergers in the local universe (0.02 ≤ z ≤ 0.2) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR 7) matched in stellar mass, redshift, local density of galaxies, and [O iii] λ5007 luminosity to a control sample of isolated galaxies. By fitting the [O iii] λ5007 line, we find ionized outflows in ∼15 per cent of our entire sample. Outflows are much rarer in star-forming galaxies compared to active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and outflow incidence and velocity increase with [O iii] λ5007 luminosity. Outflow incidence is significantly elevated in the optical + mid-infrared selected AGN compared to purely optical AGN; over 60 per cent show outflows at the highest luminosities ($L_{\mathrm{[OIII]~\lambda 5007}}\, \gtrsim$ 1042 erg s−1), suggesting mid-infrared AGN selection favours galaxies with powerful outflows, at least for higher [O iii] λ5007 luminosities. However, we find no statistically significant difference in outflow incidence, velocity, and luminosity in mergers compared to isolated galaxies, and there is no dependence on merger stage. Therefore, while interactions are predicted to drive gas inflows and subsequently trigger nuclear star formation and accretion activity, when the power source of the outflow is controlled for, the merging environment has no further impact on the large-scale ionized outflows as traced by [O iii] λ5007.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Expanding Medicaid to Reduce Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Houston, Texas

Context: Medicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021. Methods: An agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated. Results: The baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention. Findings: Simulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the cross section of the Q=4.4398 MeV 12 C (n, n'γ) reaction from threshold to 16.5 MeV using γ and correlated n–γ detection

The Q=4.4398 MeV 12 C (n, n'γ) cross section was measured using a white incident neutron source through the detection of γ rays only and n–γ coincidences using a segmented liquid scintillator detector array. While the n–γ technique utilized here is more generally applicable to a wide variety of neutron scattering measurements, the γ-only technique was successfully applied to this reaction to exploit the precise time resolution and high efficiency of this detection system to yield results with unprecedented statistical precision and total uncertainties < 2 % from reaction threshold up to 16 MeV incident neutron energy, clearly resolving many features in this reaction that were previously not well known. The γ-only and n–γ results are consistent with each other for the majority of the incident energy range covered in this paper, thereby lending validation to the n–γ technique for future measurements, though significant disagreements are observed between both results and with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data evaluation. These differences are particularly noticeable in the recently evaluated energy range below 6.5 MeV, and also near 14 MeV where a “sawtooth”-like feature is observed similar to that in other 12 C+n reaction channels. Finally, both γ-only and n–γ results are presented here with thorough covariance derivations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the prompt fission neutron spectrum from 800 keV to 10 MeV for 240 Pu(sf) and for the 240 Pu($n,f$) reaction induced by neutrons of energy from 1–20 MeV

Here, the presence of 240 Pu in nuclear fuels for reactors has resulted in high uncertainties in the results of reactor and nuclear transmutation calculations because of deficiencies in 240 Pu-related nuclear data. Specifically for the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) of 240 Pu, there is only one neutron-induced, (n,f), measurement at 0.85 MeV incident neutron energy and only one complete spontaneous fission, (sf), measurement. This limited availability of data does not sufficiently guide nuclear data evaluations of these quantities. Here we report on a measurement of both the 240 Pu(sf) and the 240 Pu(n,f) PFNS, both over the emitted neutron energy range of 0.79–10.0 MeV, and from incident neutron energies of 1.0–20.0 MeV for the (n,f) reaction. Measurements were made with a hemispherical array of liquid scintillators at the high-energy Los Alamos Neutron Science Center white neutron source at the Weapons Neutron Research facility as part of the joint LANL-LLNL Chi-Nu experimental campaign to measure actinide fission neutron spectra. These measurements are the first of their kind, and provide clear experimental evidence for second-chance fission, third chance fission, and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes in neutron-induced fission of 240 Pu, and are the first ever measurements above 1 MeV incident neutron energy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tick bite frequency, prevention practices and Lyme disease diagnoses among U.S. Hispanic survey respondents

Abstract Tick bite prevention practices, knowledge of Lyme disease (LD) symptoms and transmission, and patterns of LD diagnoses among Hispanic persons have been reported but not comprehensively evaluated. In 2014, CDC examined questions from a prospective nationwide survey of U.S. Hispanic adults conducted via the Offerwise QueOpinas panel regarding ticks and LD. From October to November, a total of 2,649 surveys were released and 1,006 completed surveys returned. Overall, 44% of respondents reported routinely practising at least one form of personal protection against tick bites, and wearing repellent was the most commonly reported method (29%). Approximately 6% of respondents reported a tick bite for either themselves or someone in their household during the previous 12 months. An individual or household diagnosis of LD in the previous year was reported by 2% of respondents, with the highest proportion of diagnoses reported by respondents from high LD incidence states. The annual incidence of healthcare provider‐diagnosed LD in the survey population was higher than national surveillance estimates for reported LD among U.S. Hispanic persons during 2000–2013. As annual incidence of LD continues to increase, it is important to ensure equitable access to information about LD, including disease transmission, manifestations, and prevention recommendations. Results from this survey can help inform public health outreach focused on effective tick bite prevention methods and early recognition of LD.

Beck, Alyssa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Acoustic scattering by smooth elastic cylinders insonified by directional transceivers: Monostatic theory and experiments

A theoretical model for predicting the acoustic field scattered by an elastic cylinder that is partially insonified by a directional transceiver is proposed in the form of a simple approximate one-dimensional integral. This model accounts for spherical spreading and directivity of the incident waves and extends the formulation used in a preceding article by including effects due to oblique insonification of a long cylinder assuming negligible end-contributions. The scattered field of an infinitely long cylinder for obliquely incident plane waves and point receivers is used to approximate the apparent volume flow of cylinders partially insonified by directional transceivers. The scattered pressure that is derived using the apparent volume flow, in contrast to the previous formulation, is capable of predicting axially propagating guided wave resonances; these natural modes are excited, in addition to circumferential ones, at off-normal incident angles. The model is compared with exact numerical simulations and with previously published as well as new laboratory data. The analysis illustrates the different realistic effects associated with scattering from elastic cylinders insonified by a directional transceiver both theoretically and experimentally.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining Rail Transportation Route of Crude Oil in the United States Using Crowdsourced Social Media Data

Safety issues associated with transporting crude oil by rail have been a concern since the boom of the U.S. domestic shale oil production in 2012. During the last decade, over 300 crude-oil-by-rail incidents have occurred in the United States. Some of them have caused adverse consequences including fire and hazardous materials leakage. However, only limited information on crude-on-rail routes and their associated risks is available to the public. To this end, this study proposed an unconventional way to reconstruct crude-on-rail routes using geotagged photos harvested from the Flickr website. The proposed method linked the geotagged photos of crude oil trains posted online with national railway networks to identify potential railway segments that those crude oil trains were traveling on. Here, a shortest path-based method was applied to infer the complete crude-on-rail routes, by utilizing the confirmed railway segments as well as their directional information. Validation of the inferred routes was performed using a public map and official crude oil incident data. The results suggested that the inferred routes based on geotagged photos had high coverage, with approximately 96% of the documented crude oil incidents aligned with the reconstructed crude-on-rail network. The inferred crude oil train routes were found to pass through several metropolitan areas of high population density, who were exposed to potential risk. These findings could improve situational awareness for policy makers and transportation planners. In addition, with the inferred routes, this study has established a good foundation for future crude oil train risk-analyses along the rail route.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Association Between Thyroid Function and Depression: A Population-Based Study

Abstract Context An association of thyroid function with mood disorders has been widely suggested, but very few studies have examined this association longitudinally. Objective We assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal association between thyroid function and depression in a population-based cohort. Methods A total of 9471 individuals were included in cross-sectional analyses, of whom 8366 had longitudinal data. At baseline, we assessed thyroid function using serum samples (thyrotropin [TSH], free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroid peroxidase antibodies) and depressive symptoms using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Incident depressive events (n = 1366) were continuously followed up with the CES-D and clinical interviews. We analyzed the cross-sectional association of thyroid function and thyroid disease with depressive symptoms using linear and logistic regression, and the longitudinal association with Cox proportional hazard models for depressive events. Results Lower TSH levels and lower and higher FT4 levels were cross-sectionally associated with more depressive symptoms with a B value of −0.07 per 1 unit increase of natural log-transformed TSH (95% CI −0.11; −0.04). Furthermore, hypothyroidism was cross-sectionally associated with less depressive symptoms and hyperthyroidism with more depressive symptoms. Longitudinally, there was a U-shaped association between FT4 and incident depressive events but only in euthyroid participants. Conclusion We show a cross-sectional association between thyroid (dys)function with depressive symptoms, and a U-shaped association between FT4 and incident depressive events in euthyroid individuals. Our findings suggest an association of thyroid function with the risk of developing depression, albeit small. Reverse causation and additional underlying factors may also contribute to the association.

Roa Dueñas, Oscar Hernando (ORCID:0000000207522261↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Markers of Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Context In recent studies of childhood cancer survivors, diabetes has been considered a late effect associated with high therapeutic doses of radiation therapy. Our recent study of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors also suggested an association between radiation dose and diabetes incidence, with exposure city and age at exposure as radiation dose effect modifiers. Insulin resistance mediated by systemic inflammation and abnormal body composition has been suggested as a possible primary mechanism for the incidence of diabetes after total body irradiation; however, no studies have examined low to moderate radiation exposure (<4 Gy) and insulin resistance in A-bomb survivors. Objective To examine the association between radiation dose and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods This study investigated 3152 survivors who underwent a health examination between 2008 and 2012 and who were younger than 15 years at exposure. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the radiation effects on levels of markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Results Radiation dose was significantly and positively associated with levels of C-reactive protein, triglycerides, homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after adjustment for relevant covariates including sex, city, and age at exposure. Adiponectin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also associated significantly and negatively with radiation dose. However, city was not a dose modifier of the radiation response on these markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Conclusion Insulin resistance might be a possible factor in radiation-related diabetes incidence in A-bomb survivors.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-the-fly response function generation method for composite coarse mesh

The hybrid stochastic deterministic transport code COMET, based on the incident response expansion theory, is used to model reactor cores with high fidelity and formidable computational speed. COMET models a reactor core using a library of incident flux response expansion coefficients that are pre computed for all the unique lattice cells (e.g., fuel assemblies, reflector blocks, etc.) in the core. In order to further improve its computational efficiency in pre-calculating the response library a new response function generation method is developed to compute the response functions for the composite coarse meshes made of a smaller set of unique lattices on the fly within the COMET's deterministic transport core sweep. The efficiency is achieved by eliminating a number of unique lattices that can be made up from the reduced set of unique meshes on the fly. The numerical process consists of the following steps. First, the boundary condition on composite coarse mesh boundaries is projected onto the expansion basis to compute the incident flux moments on external surfaces of all the basic (reduced set of unique) coarse meshes. Secondly, the deterministic sweeping solver in COMET is used to converge on the outgoing/incoming flux expansion moments crossing interfaces between the basic coarse meshes. Thirdly, the response functions for the composite coarse meshes are constructed as a superposition on the fly. The new response function generation method was tested on 88 composite coarse meshes consisting of CANDU fuel bundles and moderator blocks. It was found that response functions generated by the new method agree very well with those generated by direct Monte Carlo calculations. The average and maximum relative differences in the surface-to-surface response coefficients computed by the two methods are 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively. Similarly, the average and maximum relative differences in the response fission densities are 0.13% and 0.43%, respectively. These discrepancies are within one standard deviation of the stochastic uncertainties. The new method is five times faster than the original direct Monte Carlo method. The size of the response function library for the new method is five times smaller than that for the original method, leading to significantly less requirement for the computer hard drive space and memory. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multislice forward modeling of coherent surface scattering imaging on surface and interfacial structures

To study nanostructures on substrates, surface-sensitive reflection-geometry scattering techniques such as grazing incident small angle X-ray scattering are commonly used to yield an averaged statistical structural information of the surface sample. Grazing incidence geometry can probe the absolute three-dimensional structural morphology of the sample if a highly coherent beam is used. Coherent surface scattering imaging (CSSI) is a powerful yet non-invasive technique similar to coherent X-ray diffractive imaging (CDI) but performed at small angles and grazing-incidence reflection geometry. A challenge with CSSI is that conventional CDI reconstruction techniques cannot be directly applied to CSSI because the Fourier-transform-based forward models cannot reproduce the dynamical scattering phenomenon near the critical angle of total external reflection of the substrate-supported samples. To overcome this challenge, we have developed a multislice forward model which can successfully simulate the dynamical or multi-beam scattering generated from surface structures and the underlying substrate. The forward model is also demonstrated to be able to reconstruct an elongated 3D pattern from a single shot scattering image in the CSSI geometry through fast-performing CUDA-assisted PyTorch optimization with automatic differentiation.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Six-Month Outcomes of Infants Born to People With SARS-CoV-2 in Pregnancy

OBJECTIVES To assess the 6-month incidence of laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, postnatal care, hospitalization, and mortality among infants born to people with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy by timing of maternal infection. METHODS Using a cohort of liveborn infants from pregnancies with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the year 2020 from 10 United States jurisdictions in the Surveillance for Emerging Threats to Mother and Babies Network, we describe weighted estimates of infant outcomes from birth through 6 months of age from electronic health and laboratory records. RESULTS Of 6601 exposed infants with laboratory information through 6 months of age, 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.8–1.1) tested positive, 19.1% (17.5–20.6) tested negative, and 80.0% (78.4–81.6) were not known to be tested for SARS-CoV-2. Among those ≤14 days of age, SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred only with maternal infection ≤14 days before delivery. Of 3967 infants with medical record abstraction, breastmilk feeding initiation was lower when maternal infection occurred ≤14 days before delivery compared with >14 days (77.6% [72.5–82.6] versus 88.3% [84.7–92.0]). Six-month all-cause hospitalization was 4.1% (2.0–6.2). All-cause mortality was higher among infants born to people with infection ≤14 days (1.0% [0.4–1.6]) than >14 days (0.3% [0.1–0.5]) before delivery. CONCLUSIONS Results are reassuring, with low incidences of most health outcomes examined. Incidence of infant SARS-CoV-2, breastmilk feeding initiation, and all-cause mortality differed by timing of maternal infection. Strategies to prevent infections and support pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 may improve infant outcomes.

Pediatrics↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Interactions Between Shading and Organic Fertilizer Application on Dry-farmed Tomato Grown Between Photovoltaic Panels

Agrivoltaic systems are mixed systems of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and agricultural production, where shade from the panels can result in lower evapotranspiration for crops, which is of particular interest for dryland agriculture. Dry-farmed tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) production in the Willamette Valley of Oregon has lower total yields and higher rates of blossom-end rot (BER) than irrigated tomato production, resulting in reduced marketable yields. To determine how dry-farmed ‘Early Girl’ tomato performed in an agrivoltaics system, a trial was conducted at the Valley Creek Solar Project (Salem, OR, USA) in 2020, using three different amendment treatments and three levels of shading from the panels. Amendment treatments were 0N (receiving no fertilizer), 84N (receiving 84 kg·ha −1 N), and 168N (receiving 168 kg·ha −1 N), applied as processed chicken manure. Plants were estimated to receive an irradiance factor of 30%, 76%, and 89% for full-shade, partial-shade, and full-sun treatments respectively. There was an interaction between amendment treatments and shading treatments in their effects on unblemished yield (yield of fruit without BER or sunscald). The optimum fertilizer application for full-shade and partial-shade rows was 84N, the optimum for full-sun rows was 0N. Fertilizing these rows at these rates resulted in an unblemished yield for the aisle of 11.1 t·ha −1 , which was lower than unblemished yields reported in previous experiments and trials in open fields. However, these results are from a single location and a single year, and other solar sites may behave more similar to open-field conditions. Shading from the panels increased average fruit weight and decreased incidence of BER and sunscald, suggesting that crops were less drought stressed. This resulted in similar unblemished yields for the full-shade and full-sun plots at 84N and 168N. Applying fertilizer resulted in higher total yields, smaller average fruit weight, increased BER incidence, and decreased sunscald incidence. The results suggest a possible synergy between dry-farmed tomato production and agrivoltaics, although several concerns remain, including difficulties managing the vegetation under panels, rules restricting PVs on high-value agricultural soils, and the possibility of soil compaction during PV installation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Why does cyber deterrence fail and when might it succeed? A framework for cyber scenario analysis

Through cyberattacks on information technology and digital communications systems, antagonists have increasingly been able to alter the strategic balance in their favor without provoking serious consequences. Conflict within and through the cyber domain is inherently different from conflict in other domains that house our critical systems. These differences result in new challenges for defending and creating resilient systems, and for deterring those who would wish to disrupt or destroy them. The purpose of this paper is to further examine the question of whether or not deterrence can be an effective strategy in cyber conflict, given our broad and varied interests in cyberspace. We define deterrence broadly as the creation of conditions that dissuade antagonists from taking unwanted actions because they believe that they will incur unacceptably high costs and/or receive insufficient benefits from taking that action. Deterrence may or may not be the most credible or effective strategy for achieving our desired end states in cybersecurity. Regardless of the answer here, however, it is important to consider why deterrence strategies might succeed under certain conditions, and to understand why deterrence is not effective within the myriad contexts that it appears fail. Deterrence remains a key component of U.S. cyber strategy, but there is little detail on how to operationalize or implement this policy, how to bring a whole-of-government and whole-of- private-sector approach to cyber deterrence, which types of antagonists can or should be deterred, and in which contexts. Moreover, discussion about how nations can and should respond to significant cyber incidents largely centers around whether or not the incident constitutes a "use of force," which would justify certain types of responses according to international law. However, we believe the "use of force" threshold is inadequate to describe the myriad interests and objectives of actors in cyberspace, both attackers and defenders. In this paper, we propose an approach to further examine if deterrence is an effective strategy and under which conditions. Our approach includes systematic analysis of cyber incident scenarios using a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of various activities in influencing antagonist behavior. While we only examine a single scenario for this paper, we propose that additional work is needed to more fully understand how various alternative thresholds constrain or unleash options for actors to influence one another's behavior in the cyber domain.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Nuclear Materials on Both Sides of Regulatory Control: from IAEA Safeguards to Global Counter-Nuclear Smuggling

Global nuclear security is dependent upon the sustained and verifiable control of radiological and nuclear (R/N) materials within nuclear facilities, under the administrative purview of national governments. It is the responsibility of each country to account for their R/N materials holdings and to ensure that they do not escape regulatory control and fall into the wrong hands. The Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) is tasked with providing support to foreign partners in developing the tools and expertise to detect, disrupt, and investigate R/N materials encountered out of regulatory control, in such circumstances as at border crossings and other checkpoints, or in the course of routine policework. Thankfully, such incidents are infrequent, and NSDD continues to work bilaterally with partner countries to strengthen their capabilities to combat nuclear smuggling and trafficking incidents in their countries. For the vast majority of R/N materials that remain under regulatory control, however, it is critical that their safe storage and use be independently verified. Even a single loss incident of R/N materials, particularly of special nuclear materials (highly-enriched uranium and plutonium) has the potential to cause a catastrophe. How can the international community be assured that R/N materials currently under national regulatory control remain there?

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Penetrating power in radiography of high-Z materials as a function of bremsstrahlung spectrum endpoint energy

A modified radiographer’s equation is derived and fitted to simulation data so as to describe the increase in radiographic signal that comes with increasing bremsstrahlung spectrum endpoint energy. The dose contained in the incident spectrum follows an E28 power law, as often cited. However, the direct flux penetrating through a heavy, high-Z material, obeys a weaker scaling due to hardening of the radiation. The resultant expression depends on the thickness of the scene being radiographed, the composition of high-Z materials in the scene, and any filtering by other low-Z materials, such as Al or Be. The expression exhibits two asymptotic limits: a ‘thick’ limit at which radiation is extremely hardened and only a weak benefit to increasing endpoint energy is observed (also the most attenuating limit and therefore of dubious physical significance), and a ‘thin’ limit at which a minimum of high-Z material is present and the penetrating dose exhibits the 2.8 power scaling inherent in the incident spectrum. Behavior for intermediate thicknesses of W and Al are obtained by modeling incident and attenuated dose using the DOSECALC code and the Bayes’ Inference Engine (BIE). These data guide the optimization of MeV radiography over a wide range of energies where pair production plays a significant role in photon scattering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗