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Operational and Research Musculoskeletal Summit: Summit Recommendations

The Medical Informatics and Health Care Systems group in the Office of Space Medicine at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) has been tasked by NASA with improving overall medical care on the International Space Station (ISS) and providing insights for medical care for future exploration missions. To accomplish this task, a three day Operational and Research Musculoskeletal Summit was held on August 23-25th, 2005 at Space Center Houston. The purpose of the summit was to review NASA#s a) current strategy for preflight health maintenance and injury screening, b) current treatment methods in-flight, and c) risk mitigation strategy for musculoskeletal injuries or syndromes that could occur or impact the mission. Additionally, summit participants provided a list of research topics NASA should consider to mitigate risks to astronaut health. Prior to the summit, participants participated in a web-based pre-summit forum to review the NASA Space Medical Conditions List (SMCL) of musculoskeletal conditions that may occur on ISS as well as the resources currently available to treat them. Data from the participants were compiled and integrated with the summit proceedings. Summit participants included experts from the extramural physician and researcher communities, and representatives from NASA Headquarters, the astronaut corps, JSC Medical Operations and Human Adaptations and Countermeasures Offices, Glenn Research Center Human Research Office, and the Astronaut Strength, Conditioning, and Reconditioning (ASCR) group. The recommendations in this document are based on a summary of summit discussions and the best possible evidence-based recommendations for musculoskeletal care for astronauts while on the ISS, and include recommendati ons for exploration class missions.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

Using remotely sensed information to support landslide hazard and exposure assessment throughout the disaster lifecycle

The global coverage and temporal frequency that satellites provide offers a unique opportunity to estimate landslide hazard and exposure throughout the disaster lifecycle, from pre-event planning and forecasting to post-event mapping and impact assessment, and finally to recovery and mitigation. The relevance of satellite-derived data and model products is largely contingent on the spatiotemporal sampling, the hazard characteristics, and the needs from the research or applications community. This work presents an advanced Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) framework that brings together satellite and model products with new machine learning techniques and global inventory data to better model landslide hazard and exposure. We present several new ways to map, model, and assess landslide hazard using a range of satellite data. Two new thrusts of this work are to better account for the exacerbating impacts of fires and to provide a multi-day forecast of potential hazard. Together, these additional components blend information from a suite of satellite and model sources to improve early warning of potentially hazardous areas, identify landslide occurrence and impacts in near real-time, and better characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of landslide hazard and exposure more broadly for future awareness and planning. This suite of tools and products is open to the public and provides information to better assess the potential occurrence and impacts of landslides within different regions of the world. This presentation explores both the architecture behind this framework and examples of how the model components and products have been used by different stakeholders around the world.

Thomas Stanley↗

Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience

"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

Bauer, S. E.↗

Early Radiometric Performance of Landsat-9 Thermal Infrared Sensor

Landsat-9, launched on September 27, 2021, carries the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The Landsat-9 TIRS is a close copy of the Landsat-8 TIRS instrument; it is a two spectral-band, pushbroom sensor with three Sensor Chip Assemblies (SCAs) that cover the 15-degree field-of-view. The primary radiometric change between the instruments is the addition of baffling in the Landsat-9 TIRS telescope to mitigate the stray light issue that has impacted the radiometric quality of Landsat-8 TIRS. The on-orbit radiometric performance is monitored using the on-board variable temperature blackbody and views of deep space. Maneuvers to look at and around the moon have provided an assessment of the stray light. The absolute calibration is monitored by vicarious calibration techniques by teams at NASA/Jet Propulsion Lab and the Rochester Institute of Technology. Landsat-9 completed a three-month commissioning phase in January 2022 and has been operational since February 2022. The instrument has demonstrated excellent radiometric performance, as assessed from the on-orbit measurements. The TIRS instrument is radiometrically stable to 0.1% within a power cycle, and has noise levels below 0.1K. The lunar scans and the vicarious calibration data provide evidence that the stray light has been effectively mitigated.

Landsat-9↗

The Impact of Ice Sheet Surface Representation on Surface Mass Balance in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Surface conditions and their impacts on surface mass balance (SMB) play important roles in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interactions with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) – an ecosystem of models and reanalyses – represent ice sheet and glacier SMB components, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. We find the successful representation of ice sheet surface mass balance in MERRA-2, and similar systems, is partly due to compensating biases in surface energy budget. In the atmospheric system, subsequent changes to cloud microphysics and in the longwave radiative transfer model are found to have reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation fluxes while exacerbating surface net shortwave radiation biases, producing erroneously high near-surface temperatures and surface melt in summer months. These issues can be exacerbated by poor experiment initialization and the use of two-moment cloud microphysics within the GEOS ocean-atmosphere coupled system. Here, we document the spatial and temporal extent and causes of these biases in the ice sheet surface energy budget across GEOS systems and implement a range of model improvements to mitigate these issues. We examine the combined impact on these changes on regional energy budget and SMB using both free running and replay experiments (to simulate the impact in reanalyses). Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet SMB in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Health, Labor, and Crop Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in the United States

Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primarily from air quality improvements, which are realized rapidly, and include human health, labor productivity, and crop yield benefits. Benefits from reduced heat exposure become large around 2060, thereafter often dominating over those from improved air quality. Monetized benefits are in the tens of trillions of dollars for avoided deaths and tens of billions for labor productivity and crop yield increases and reduced hospital expenditures. Total monetized benefits this century are dominated by health and are much larger than in previous analyses due to improved understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to both heat and air pollution. Benefit–cost ratios are therefore much larger than in prior studies, especially those that neglected clean air benefits. Specifically, benefits from clean air exceed costs in the first decade, whereas benefits from climate alone exceed costs in the latter half of the century. Furthermore, monetized US benefits largely stem from US emissions reductions. Increased emphasis on the localized, near-term air quality–related impacts would better align policies with societal benefits and, by reducing the mismatch between perception of climate as a risk distant in space and time and the need for rapid action to mitigate long-term climate change, might help increase acceptance of mitigation policies.

climate change↗

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Stein, William B.↗

Global and Regional Radiative Forcing from 20 Reductions in BC, OC and SO4 an HTAP2 Multi-Model Study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4/ from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8mW/sq m/Tg for BC, between -2.4 and -17.9mW/sq m/Tg for OA and between -3.6 and -10.3W/sq m/Tg for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE)↗

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Vol. 13, No. 2

Topics include: debris clouds left by satellite collision; debris flyby near the International Space Station; and break-up of an ullage motor from a Russian Proton launch vehicle. Findings from the analysis of the STS-126 Shuttle Endeavour window impact damage are provided. Abstracts from the NASA Orbital Debris program office are presented and address a variety of topics including: Reflectance Spectra Comparison of Orbital Debris, Intact Spacecraft, and Intact Rocket Bodies in the GEO Regime; Shape Distribution of Fragments From Microsatellite Impact Tests; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Mitigation Techniques for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts; and, In Situ Measurement Activities at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. Additionally, a Meeting Report is provided for the 12 meeting of the NASA/DoD Orbital Debris Working Group.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

Jacobson, Steven R.↗

International Space Station Common Cabin Air Assembly Condensing Heat Exchanger Hydrophilic Coating Failures and Lessons Learned

The ability to control the temperature and humidity of an environment or habitat is critical for human survival. These factors are important to maintaining human health and comfort, as well as maintaining mechanical and electrical equipment in good working order to support the human and to accomplish mission objectives. The temperature and humidity of the International Space Station (ISS) United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) cabin air is controlled by the Common Cabin Air Assembly (CCAA). The CCAA consists of a fan, a condensing heat exchanger (CHX), an air/water separator, temperature and liquid sensors, and electrical controlling hardware and software. The CHX is the primary component responsible for control of temperature and humidity. The CCAA CHX contains a chemical coating that was developed to be hydrophilic and thus attract water from the humid influent air. This attraction forms the basis for water removal and therefore cabin humidity control. However, there have been several instances of CHX coatings becoming hydrophobic and repelling water. When this behavior is observed in an operational CHX, the unit s ability to remove moisture from the air is compromised and the result is liquid water carryover into downstream ducting and systems. This water carryover can have detrimental effects on the cabin atmosphere quality and on the health of downstream hardware. If the water carryover is severe and widespread, this behavior can result in an inability to maintain humidity levels in the USOS. This paper will describe the operation of the five CCAAs within in the USOS, the potential causes of the hydrophobic condition, and the impacts of the resulting water carryover to downstream systems. It will describe the history of this behavior and the actual observed impacts to the ISS USOS. Information on mitigation steps to protect the health of future CHX hydrophilic coatings and potential remediation techniques will also be discussed.

Balistreri, Steven F.↗

International Space Station Common Cabin Air Assembly Condensing Heat Exchanger Hydrophilic Coating Operation, Recovery, and Lessons Learned

The ability to control the temperature and humidity of an environment or habitat is critical for human survival. These factors are important to maintaining human health and comfort, as well as maintaining mechanical and electrical equipment in good working order to support the human and to accomplish mission objectives. The temperature and humidity of the International Space Station (ISS) United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) cabin air is controlled by the Common Cabin Air Assembly (CCAA). The CCAA consists of a fan, a condensing heat exchanger (CHX), an air/water separator, temperature and liquid sensors, and electrical controlling hardware and software. The CHX is the primary component responsible for control of temperature and humidity. The CCAA CHX contains a chemical coating that was developed to be hydrophilic and thus attract water from the humid influent air. This attraction forms the basis for water removal and therefore cabin humidity control. However, there have been several instances of CHX coatings becoming hydrophobic and repelling water. When this behavior is observed in an operational CHX in the ISS segments, the unit s ability to remove moisture from the air is compromised and the result is liquid water carryover into downstream ducting and systems. This water carryover can have detrimental effects on the ISS cabin atmosphere quality and on the health of downstream hardware. If the water carryover is severe and widespread, this behavior can result in an inability to maintain humidity levels in the USOS. This paper will describe the operation of the five CCAAs within the USOS, the potential causes of the hydrophobic condition, and the impacts of the resulting water carryover to downstream systems. It will describe the history of this behavior and the actual observed impacts to the ISS USOS. Information on mitigation steps to protect the health of future CHX hydrophilic coatings as well as remediation and recovery of the full heat exchanger will be discussed.

Balistreri, Steven F.↗

Influence of Exercise Modality on Cerebral-Ocular Hemodynamics and Pressures

Background: Moderate and high intensity aerobic or resistance exercise has clearly identified benefits for cardiac, muscle, and bone health. However, the impact of such exercise - either as a mitigating or an exacerbating factor - on the development of the visual impairment and intracranial pressure syndrome (VIIP) is unknown. Accordingly, our aim was to characterize the effect of an acute bout of resistance (RE), moderate-intensity continuous (CE), and high-intensity interval exercise (IE) during a cephalad fluid shift on cerebral-ocular hemodynamics and pressures. Methods: 10 male subjects (36 plus or minus 9 years) completed 4 testing days in a 15 degree head-down tilt (HDT): (1) assessment of maximum volume of O (sub 2), (2) RE session (4 sets of 12 repetition maximum leg press exercise), (3) CE session (30 minutes of cycling at 60 percent maximum volume of O (sub 2)), and (4) IE session (4 by 4-minute intervals of exercise at 85 percent maximum volume of O (sub 2) with 3-minute active rest periods). During each session, blood flow (Vivid-e, GE Healthcare) in extracranial arteries (common carotid artery, CCA; internal carotid artery, ICA; external carotid artery, ECA and vertebral artery, VA), and mean blood flow velocity in middle cerebral artery (MCA), internal jugular pressure (IJP; VeinPress), and intraocular pressure (IOP; Icare PRO) were measured at rest, at the end of each resistance or interval set, and every 5 minutes during continuous exercise. Translaminar pressure gradient (TLPG) was estimated by subtracting IJP from IOP. Results: There were no differences across days in pre-exercise resting blood flows or pressures. IOP decreased slightly from HDT rest (20.2 plus or minus 2.3 millimeters of mercury) to exercise (RE: 19.2 plus or minus 2.8 millimeters of mercury; CE: 18.9 plus or minus 3.2 millimeters of mercury; IE: 20.1 plus or minus 2.8 millimeters of mercury), while IJP decreased during CE (31.6 plus or minus 9.5 millimeters of mercury) and RE (32.0 plus or minus 8.1 millimeters of mercury), and increased during IE (35.1 plus or minus 9.5 millimeters of mercury) from HDT rest (33.3 plus or minus 6.5 millimeters of mercury). Estimated TLPG was increased during IE only. Compared to RE and CE, IE resulted in the greatest increase in MCA blood flow velocity and extracranial artery blood flow. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that high-intensity IE acutely increases cerebral blood flow, IJP, and TLPG. Alterations in TLPG is one mechanism that may contribute to optic nerve sheath edema in astronauts. Accordingly, acutely raising IOP and/or orbital pressure during exercise could optimize cerebral-ocular pressures during spaceflight.

Scott, J.↗

Electromagnetic Scattering Analysis of Large Size Asteroids/Comets for Reflection/Transmission Tomography (RTT)

A precise knowledge of the interior structure of asteroids, comets, and Near Earth Objects (NEO) is important to assess the consequences of their impacts with the Earth and develop efficient mitigation strategies. Knowledge of their interior structure also provides opportunities for extraction of raw materials for future space activities. Low frequency radio sounding is often proposed for investigating interior structures of asteroids and NEOs. For designing and optimizing radio sounding instrument it is advantageous to have an accurate and efficient numerical simulation model of radio reflection and transmission through large size bodies of asteroid shapes. In this presentation we will present electromagnetic (EM) scattering analysis of electrically large size asteroids using (1) a weak form formulation and (2) also a more accurate hybrid finite element method/method of moments (FEM/MOM) to help estimate their internal structures. Assuming the internal structure with known electrical properties of a sample asteroid, we first develop its forward EM scattering model. From the knowledge of EM scattering as a function of frequency and look angle we will then present the inverse scattering procedure to extract its interior structure image. Validity of the inverse scattering procedure will be presented through few simulation examples.

Deshpande, Manohar↗

Enabling Biological Discovery Through Biospecimen Sharing: The Nasa Biological Institutional Scientific Collection

Understanding biological impacts from spaceflight hazards and the subsequent development of countermeasures are a high priority to enable humanity to venture back to the Moon, and then to Mars and beyond. Experiments have been conducted with model organisms flown to space and analogous investigations terrestrially, to identify biological mechanistic impacts from spaceflight hazards and to develop mitigation countermeasures, thus contributing towards basic and applied science goals. However, sending organisms into space is a costly endeavor. To maximize scientific return, all biospecimens not required by spaceflight-relevant Principal Investigators are harvested, preserved, and archived in the NASA Biological Institutional Scientific Collection (NBISC). Biospecimens are collected and preserved according to well-established standard operating procedures to maintain scientific quality and are available on-request by the international scientific community. NBISC currently stores over 32,000 biospecimens from Shuttle, International Space Station, and ground-based space analog investigations. Tissue sharing has resulted in at least 33 publications since 2011 and 51 requests since 2016. Many requests for NBISC biospecimens come from first-time investigators who subsequently submit grants as their point-of-entry into the field of spaceflight biology and health. The NBISC biorepository is part of the NASA ‘Open Science for Life in Space’ collaborative group of projects, which includes NASA Genelab, the Space Biology Program’s Biospecimen Sharing Program, Physical Sciences Informatics, and the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive. NBISC biospecimens have been awarded to NASA Genelab, who then generated various open access science ‘omics datasets through the GeneLab Sample Processing laboratory, with resulting data widely used for biological study. Other NBISC biospecimen awards have led to studies on fecal microbiome analysis, DNA damage analysis using single-cell DNA sequencing, enzymatic-pathway identification involved in spaceflight muscle atrophy, and characterization of ocular morphological changes. Of note, NBISC is expanded to include a new Space Microbial Culture Collection (SMCC) for the collection, identification, documentation, long-term preservation, and distribution of space-related microbial isolates.

Biospecimens↗

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

Communication Delays, Disruptions, and Blackouts for Crewed Mars Missions

As NASA continues to develop the Moon2Mars campaign, there are a number of challenges that must be addressed to execute a successful crewed mission to Mars. One of those challenges is delays, disruptions, and blackouts that crew will experience during their mission to Mars, and that is the challenge evaluated in this paper. Our analysis showed that communication delays will vary from 0 to 22 minutes over the course of a mission, peaking while the crew is at or just departed from Mars. The disruptions occur in a similar time frame and can last for several days up to several months, depending on the solar disturbance sensitivity of the communication band being used. The delays and disruptions will have an impact on crewed Mars missions, and determining mitigations is future work to be informed by this analysis.

Katherine T McBrayer↗