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DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine structure of current noise spectra in nanoelectromechanical resonators

Here, we study the frequency-dependent noise of a suspended carbon nanotube quantum dot nanoelectromechanical resonator induced by electron-vibration coupling. Using a rigorous Keldysh diagrammatic technique, we establish a formal framework connecting the vibrational properties to electrical measurements. We find that the noise power spectrum exhibits a narrow resonant peak at the frequency of the vibrational modes. However, this fine structure tends to disappear due to a coherent cancellation effect when the tunneling barriers are tuned to a symmetric point. Notably, measuring the electrical current noise spectra provides a sensitive alternative method for detecting the damping and dephasing of quantum vibrational modes.

Electric measurements↗

DOE OSTI2026

SEED: Semantic Energy Exploration and Discovery

The Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework (KDF) hosts a vast repository of specialized data, yet traditional keyword-based search methods often struggle to provide direct answers, requiring significant domain expertise and manual effort to filter through raw documents. To overcome these barriers, this software introduces a semantic search engine that enables both specialists and non-specialists to query the KDF using natural language. By shifting from rigid keyword matching to intent-based retrieval, the tool automatically identifies and ranks the most relevant sources within the database. The system functions by processing natural language queries to extract the most pertinent information, delivering an AI-generated plain-language summary alongside exact supporting quotes from retrieved documents. This integrated approach provides users with immediate, evidence-based answers while eliminating the need for exhaustive manual review. By surfacing direct insights and contextual evidence, the software enhances the usability of existing KDF resources and democratizes access to complex bioenergy data. Ultimately, this semantic search solution accelerates the discovery process and supports faster, more informed decision-making across the bioenergy sector.

Pan, Meiyu (Melrose) [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safety issues of defective lithium-ion batteries: identification and risk evaluation

Lithium-ion batteries inevitably suffer minor damage or defects caused by external mechanical abusive loading, e.g. , penetration, deformation, and scratch without triggering a hard/major short circuit. The replacement of cells becomes a dilemma if the safety risk of the defective batteries remains unknown. Herein, by introducing a representative defect form, i.e. , screw indentation, we demonstrate the safety characteristics of defective batteries. We prove that defective batteries have a significantly increased thermal risk and deteriorated mechanical integrity, but can go undetected due to prompt voltage recovery and insignificant local temperature increase. We discover that the voltage curve within the first few cycles contains sufficient information to identify defective batteries from otherwise good ones and propose methodologies to monitor the cells. Capacity loss and current leakage are two characteristics that can be estimated using the voltage curve. According to the defect size and position, the capacity loss could be 1 to 10 2 mA h and the leakage current could be 5–50 mA. Results remove the barriers for defective battery safety risk evaluation, enabling identification, monitoring, and early warning of minor damaged batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. Here, in this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unlocking the Value of Deep Energy Retrofits

This publication is based on an extensive study conducted on behalf of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the U S Department of Energy (DOE) to explore financial and risk products to accelerate the implementation of deep energy retrofit (DER) solutions to reduce costs These financial products are intended to speed market development via three fundamental themes: reallocating risk from building owners and lenders to insurers, quantifying and monetizing previously unrecognized value associated with DERs, and providing building owners and lenders with confidence in the performance of building systems Findings are based on a comprehensive analysis and characterization of 100+ existing DER case studies, and more than 40 qualitative interviews with industry experts, including insurers, researchers, building owners, and policymakers In addition, a quantitative model of overall project economics with baseline, high, and low cases was developed This data informed the analysis that resulted in three recommended financial product solutions, which were evaluated for their potential to raise projected cash flows and finance DERs: 1) Building System Performance and Energy Savings Guarantee; 2) Trade Credit Insurance; 3) Ancillary Revenue Contracts. This report identifies many value streams associated with DERs and introduces these three potential financial products, which aim to reallocate risks and reduce barriers to the adoption of advanced envelope DERs.

ancillary renenue contracts↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

NREL Marine Energy Desalination R&D Portfolio

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), has developed a unique R&D approach to advance marine energy desalination. Desalination is a foundational investment within WPTO's Powering the Blue EconomyTM portfolio [1], and was the first investment within this portfolio. NREL's marine energy desalination spans techno-economic feasibility studies, numerical modeling, and laboratory testing at the component and subsystem level, as well as development of the Hydraulic and Electric Reverse Osmosis Wave Energy Converter (HERO WEC). This multilayered approach enables an innovative feedback loop where the data and lessons learned from laboratory and field experiments are used to refine modeling tools and analysis techniques, prioritize out-year activities, and refine strategic directions within NREL and across the WPTO portfolio. The primary objective of the NREL-led research is to identify key barriers associated with the commercialization of wave-powered desalination and develop solutions that can be adopted by the marine energy industry. It should be noted, while WPTO's marine energy portfolio includes wave, tidal, ocean current, thermal gradients, and pressure gradients the bulk of the marine energy desalination work has been focused on wave powered desalination. In parallel, these R&D activities can help inform technical assistance and support of industry and academic technologies. These two tracks help build a common solver community approach, while also identifying key stakeholders, government agencies, and other organizations outside of the marine sector that will be necessary for developing a robust industry.

desalination↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation and characterization of crosstalk between laser-driven radiography sources

Radiography with multiple probe species offers the potential to extract additional information about a given object as compared to radiography with a single probe species. Notably, the flexibility for high-power, short-pulse lasers to accelerate a variety of particle species makes laser-driven sources an attractive option to achieve multi-probe radiography. However, crosstalk produced by each of laser-driven source may be responsible for substantial backgrounds on detectors, becoming a significant barrier to achieving simultaneous radiography. In this work, we describe measurements of and mitigation strategies against crosstalk between laser-driven radiography sources in experiments at the OMEGA EP laser.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and application of an environmental risk register for marine energy device and project developers

The marine energy industry is steadily advancing as more devices are deployed worldwide. However, several challenges and barriers remain, such as lingering uncertainty regarding the potential environmental effects of marine energy devices on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystems. Concerns have led to difficulty navigating permitting and consenting processes and receiving authorization to deploy devices in the marine environment, including extended timelines and costs. Based on existing risk registers, a novel marine energy environmental risk register was created to help the marine energy industry move beyond these barriers. This risk register aims to aid marine energy device and project developers identify and assess potential environmental risks early in device design or project planning, document and track potential environmental interactions, prioritize risks and determine risk responses, and make decisions throughout device or project development. It can also be used as a tool to assist in communicating with regulators and advisors during permitting processes and to inform stakeholder and community engagement efforts. This paper details the methods and process to develop a risk register specific to environmental effects of marine energy and describes two use cases (one for wave energy and another for tidal energy) to highlight example results. Due to the tool's novelty, the paper showcases its application for the marine energy industry and acknowledges limitations and possible future improvements. Overall, the environmental risk register shows promise to support marine energy developers when identifying, tracking, and addressing potential environmental risks and to help successfully navigate permitting and deploy marine energy devices responsibly.

Environmental effects↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-resolution CH stretch spectroscopy of jet-cooled cyclopentyl radical: First insights into equilibrium structure, out-of-plane puckering, and IVR dynamics

First, high-resolution sub-Doppler infrared spectroscopic results for cyclopentyl radical (C 5 H 9 ) are reported on the α-CH stretch fundamental with suppression of spectral congestion achieved by adiabatic cooling to T rot ≈ 19(4) K in a slit jet expansion. Surprisingly, cyclopentyl radical exhibits a rotationally assignable infrared spectrum, despite 3N – 6 = 36 vibrational modes and an upper vibrational state density (ρ ≈ 40–90 #/cm –1 ) in the critical regime (ρ ≈ 100 #/cm –1 ) necessary for onset of intramolecular vibrational relaxation (IVR) dynamics. Such high-resolution data for cyclopentyl radical permit detailed fits to a rigid-rotor asymmetric top Hamiltonian, initial structural information for ground and vibrationally excited states, and opportunities for detailed comparison with theoretical predictions. Specifically, high level ab initio calculations at the coupled-cluster singles, doubles, and perturbative triples (CCSD(T))/ANO0, 1 level are used to calculate an out-of-plane bending potential, which reveals a C 2 symmetry double minimum 1D energy surface over a C 2v transition state. Here, the inversion barrier [V barrier ≈ 3.7(1) kcal/mol] is much larger than the effective moment of inertia for out-of-plane bending, resulting in localization of the cyclopentyl wavefunction near its C 2 symmetry equilibrium geometry and tunneling splittings for the ground state too small (<1 MHz) to be resolved under sub-Doppler slit jet conditions. The persistence of fully resolved high-resolution infrared spectroscopy for such large cyclic polyatomic radicals at high vibrational state densities suggests a “deceleration” of IVR for a cycloalkane ring topology, much as low frequency torsion/methyl rotation degrees of freedom have demonstrated a corresponding “acceleration” of IVR processes in linear hydrocarbons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

PV Module Design for Recycling Guidelines

The global growth of clean energy technology deployment will be inexorably followed by a parallel growth of end-of-life (EOL) products that bring both challenges and opportunities. Cumulatively, by 2050, estimates project 78 million tonnes of raw materials embodied in the mass of EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules. Owing partly to concern that the projected growth of clean energy technologies could become constrained by availability of raw materials, despite ongoing dematerialization efforts, significant attention under the umbrella of circular economy has been brought to recycling these technologies at EOL. Yet PV has not been designed with recycling at EOL in mind, and it presents challenges to returning embodied raw materials back to use in new products through recycling. This study aims to inform future designs to improve recyclability through synthesis of prior published works augmented by novel recommendations that result in a set of general design for recycling (DfR) guidelines, with a subset specific to PV modules. We further discuss how established trends in design of PV modules could affect recyclability. If adopted today, application of these DfR guidelines could help to mitigate tomorrow's resource scarcity, lower the barriers and cost for PV recycling, and enable a circular economy during the energy transition.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

GeoRePORT Protocol Volume VI: Resource Size Assessment Tool

GeoRePORT is based on the concept that a geothermal system can be described both in terms of the quality of the geothermal resource as it relates to the potential to extract heat ("Resource Grade") and the progress of research and development over the lifetime of the project ("Project Progress"). Resource grade and project progress are reported for three assessment categories: geologic, technical, and socio-economic. Each category has specific criteria and guidelines for assessing both resource grade and project progress, as outlined in each of the following assessment tools (and associated colors): (1) Geological Assessment Tool (representative colors: reds, oranges, browns); (2) Technical Assessment Tool (representative colors: blues, purples); (3) Socio-Economic Assessment Tool (representative colors: greens, yellows). Additionally, users may need to estimate the project size (often reported in MWe or MWth). The resource size assessment tool (RSAT) is an essential addition to GeoRePORT due to the economic and legal context of geothermal development. In order to utilize a geothermal resource, a competitive Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), or similar, often must be obtained, for which the resource's power capacity must be demonstrated. To determine that a geothermal heat or power project is worthy of development, investors or other funding mechanisms often require information on the anticipated heat and/or power potential of the reservoir. They might also be interested in the certainty of that estimate. However, proving the existence and size of a geothermal resource is comparatively expensive and risky relative to other renewable technologies; it can cost developers 5 to 10 million USD to demonstrate a financially viable geothermal resource (Young et al. 2017). GeoRePORT aims to address this barrier to development by providing a consistent and clear assessment of resource quality and certainty. The RSAT will enable GeoRePORT users to not only qualitatively report on a given a resource, but also to compare standard methodologies for quantitatively estimating a resource size in terms of potential heat and/or power output.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of New Opportunities for Marine Energy To Power the Blue Economy: Green Hydrogen and Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

This report examines the intersection of marine energy and the sectors of green hydrogen and marine Carbon Dioxide Removal, taking into account potential synergies, market maturity, barriers, policy enablers, and sustainability perspectives. Through desk research and interviews with a diverse range of subject matter experts from academia, government, industry, venture capital, and non-profit sectors, these emergent sectors were identified as the most promising new opportunities for marine energy integration beyond those explored in the 2019 Powering the Blue Economy Report. The findings presented are the combined result of desk research and information gathered through these interviews.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

RU Net for Automatic Characterization of TRISO Fuel Cross Sections

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is a type of nuclear fuel known for its high-temperature and high-burnup performance. Each sub-millimeter diameter TRISO particle consists of uranium-oxycarbide (UCO) or UO2 fuel kernel, coated with buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC), silicon carbide (SiC), and outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) layers. The SiC layer acts as the main containment barrier for the TRISO particle to retain the fission products, while the IPyC and OPyC layers provide additional barriers to the release of fission products, especially fission gases. During irradiation, phenomena like kernel swelling, buffer densification, and IPyC fracture may impact fuel performance. Post-irradiation microscopy on entire compact cross sections or samples of individual particles deconsolidated from compacts is often used to identify these irradiation-induced changes in morphology. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. To get statistical information on these phenomena, it is cumbersome work if done manually. For example, to get information about swelling/densification behaviors of different layers or kernels after irradiation, researchers previously manually measured the perimeter of each TRISO layer in hundreds of particles after four rounds of iterative grinding and polishing encompassing more than 2000 cross-section images for a total of four fuel compacts. To attempt to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and accelerate data analysis, we conducted a study on the automatic TRISO layer segmentation on cross-sectional microscopic images using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). CNNs are a class of machine learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data that have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we have generated the large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2000 cross-section TRISO microscopic images and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we have employed different CNNs for automatic segmentation of different TRISO layers. These include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net has the best performance in terms of intersection-over-union (IoU). Through the aid of these CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross-sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.

Convolutional Neural Networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Local Spin Density Approximation Strongly Improved by a Better-Informed Local Scaling of Its Self-Interaction Correction

The Perdew−Zunger self-interaction correction (PZSIC) makes density functional approximations (DFAs) exact for all one-electron densities. However, it overcorrects in manyelectron regions, introducing errors for the uniform-density limit, where uncorrected DFAs are exact. The locally scaled PZSIC (LSIC), based on the iso-orbital indicator zσ [which distinguishes single-orbital and slowly varying density regions and is used with the local spin density approximation (LSDA)], restores the uniform-density limit and significantly improves results for many properties, including chemical reaction barrier heights, atomization energies, and ionization potentials. Yet, LSIC performs poorly for weakly bonded systems, leaving many unbound, due to limitations of its iso-orbital indicator. To correct this, in this work we propose a new local scaling, LSIC-α, based on the iso-orbital indicator ασ (which additionally identifies regions of overlapping density tails). A two-parameter scaling function of ασ is fitted to a subset of the nonbonded appropriate norms for the SCAN and r2SCAN meta- GGAs, and tested on many properties of main-group atoms, molecules, and molecular complexes. LSIC-α greatly improves the interaction energies of weakly bonded systems in the S22 data set while retaining LSIC’s accuracy for other properties. This work shows that the errors of LSDA (and presumably of higher-level DFAs) can be largely but not entirely repaired by a proper “do no harm” self-interaction correction.

Approximation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lithium–Divertor Interactions and Helium/Hydrogen Trapping in Lithiated Metals (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop a fundamental understanding of helium and hydrogen behavior in lithium, both in bulk and at interfaces with tungsten, in order to inform the design of lithium based plasma facing components for fusion devices. Over the course of the award, the project produced the first comprehensive, peer reviewed dataset describing helium energetics, migration behaviors, and defect interactions in lithium. The research demonstrated that helium behaves in ways not previously observed in any other body centered cubic (BCC) metal: its interstitial configurations are more stable than substitutional ones, and its migration barriers are extraordinarily low, in some cases more than an order of magnitude below those in tungsten or iron. These discoveries reveal that helium in lithium diffuses so rapidly that its transport may be dominated by translational motion rather than the vibrationally activated mechanisms that underpin conventional solid state diffusion. This work lays a scientific foundation for understanding gas retention, bubble formation, and wall evolution in lithium based fusion environments and provides new computational tools, most notably a newly developed Li–He interatomic potential, for advancing future modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗