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At least 325 records · Page 18

EBIS Beam Intensity Online Optimization with GPTune and Offline Analysis with XGBoost

The application of machine learning techniques to accelerator research has led to significant breakthroughs in optimization strategies. This paper presents a pioneering study using a novel machine learning algorithm, GPTune, to optimize beam intensity by adjusting parameters in the EBIS injection and extraction beam lines. Our research demonstrates substantial improvements, achieving a remarkable 22% and 70% increase in beam intensity at two separate measurement locations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

An approach to sulfate geoengineering with surface emissions of carbonyl sulfide

Sulfate geoengineering (SG) methods based on lower stratospheric tropical injection of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) have been widely discussed in recent years, focusing on the direct and indirect effects they would have on the climate system. Here a potential alternative method is discussed, where sulfur emissions are located at the surface or in the troposphere in the form of carbonyl sulfide (COS) gas. There are two time-dependent chemistry–climate model experiments designed from the years 2021 to 2055, assuming a 40 Tg-Syr -1 artificial global flux of COS, which is geographically distributed following the present-day anthropogenic COS surface emissions (SG-COS-SRF) or a 6 Tg-Syr -1 injection of COS in the tropical upper troposphere (SG-COS-TTL). The budget of COS and sulfur species is discussed, as are the effects of both SG-COS strategies on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth (~Δτ=0.080 in the years 2046–2055), aerosol effective radius (0.46 µm), surface SO x deposition (+8.9 % for SG-COS-SRF; +3.3 % for SG-COS-TTL), and tropopause radiative forcing (RF; ~-1.5 W m –2 in all-sky conditions in both SG-COS experiments). Indirect effects on ozone, methane and stratospheric water vapour are also considered, along with the COS direct contribution. According to our model results, the resulting net RF is –1.3 W m –2 , for SG-COS-SRF, and –1.5 W m –2 , for SG-COS-TTL, and it is comparable to the corresponding RF of –1.7 W m –2 obtained with a sustained injection of 4 Tg-Syr -1 in the tropical lower stratosphere in the form of SO 2 (SG-SO2, which is able to produce a comparable increase of the sulfate aerosol optical depth). Significant changes in the stratospheric ozone response are found in both SG-COS experiments with respect to SG-SO2 (~5 DU versus +1.4 DU globally). According to the model results, the resulting ultraviolet B (UVB) perturbation at the surface accounts for –4.3 % as a global and annual average (versus –2.4 % in the SG-SO2 case), with a springtime Antarctic decrease of –2.7 % (versus a +5.8 % increase in the SG-SO2 experiment). Overall, we find that an increase in COS emissions may be feasible and produce a more latitudinally uniform forcing without the need for the deployment of stratospheric aircraft. However, our assumption that the rate of COS uptake by soils and plants does not vary with increasing COS concentrations will need to be investigated in future work, and more studies are needed on the prolonged exposure effects to higher COS values in humans and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Potential Effects of Climate Change and Solar Radiation Modification on Renewable Energy Resources

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a possible deliberate approach to decrease or reflect incoming solar radiation with the goal of reducing global temperatures, which have increased over the last decades due to high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Stratospheric aerosol injection, specifically, has shown potential for successfully reducing global temperatures in climate model simulations. Despite the growing literature in the areas of climate change and SRM, their combined effects on renewable energy generation, a climate change mitigation strategy, have not been addressed. In this review paper, we synthesize previous literature on the possible effects of climate change and SRM on renewable energy resources (i.e., wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and hydropower), review the status of climate change and SRM research, and explore potential effects of SRM on renewable energy primarily in the Continental United States (CONUS), but with global perspectives as well. We discuss the research challenges and impacts of SRM on renewable energy and conclude by discussing the potential implications of SRM for renewables for SRM governance and policy. This work is not advocating for or against SRM. It is highlighting an important potential impact for future decision makers.

Kumler, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Heliostat Aiming Strategies for Arbitrary Flux Profiles for High Temperature Gas-Based Receivers

High temperature gas-based receivers are seen as one potential path toward achieving the next generation of concentrated solar power tower systems. A key challenge associated with high temperature, high pressure heat transfer fluids is the lifetime of receiver containment materials. Achieving the desired lifetime while also designing an efficient receiver requires implementation of unique flux profiles, tailored to place high fluxes at cold fluid injection points. An aimpoint selection methodology was developed in the present study to allow user-defined flux profiles to be prescribed for a receiver. The methodology was implemented in NREL's open-source software SolarPILOT, modifying the existing “image size priority” aimpoint strategy. A case study for a tubular gas-based receiver is presented, examining the effect of various parameters on the ability to replicate the desired flux profile.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Nozzle tip wetting in gasoline direct injection injector and its link with nozzle internal flow

Fuel film in the gasoline direct injection injector tip, or so-called nozzle tip wetting, has been found to be an important contributor of particle emissions. Attempts have been made to reduce the nozzle tip wetting by optimizing nozzle geometry designs. However, the inherent mechanism of the nozzle tip wetting formation and its link with nozzle internal flow is still unclear yet due to the lack of direct observations. To overcome this insufficiency, here the nozzle internal flow and the formation process of the nozzle tip wetting were visualized in the real-scale aluminum nozzles using the X-ray phase-contrast technique. Results showed that the needle bouncing, injection pressure, and hole configuration affect the formation of the nozzle tip wetting, while the influence of needle bouncing is the most critical. A further study was conducted to examine the effect of nozzle counterbore diameter on the nozzle tip wetting. It was found that with an increase in counterbore diameter, the nozzle tip wetting slightly increased first and then decreased sharply after the counterbore diameter exceeded 0.40 mm. The mechanisms of the aforementioned phenomena were discussed in detail, which can contribute to the better understandings and control strategies of nozzle tip wetting.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting disruptive instabilities in controlled fusion plasmas through deep learning

Nuclear fusion power delivered by magnetic-confinement tokamak reactors holds the promise of sustainable and clean energy1. The avoidance of large-scale plasma instabilities called disruptions within these reactors is one of the most pressing challenges, because disruptions can halt power production and damage key components. Disruptions are particularly harmful for large burning-plasma systems such as the multibillion-dollar International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project currently under construction, which aims to be the first reactor that produces more power from fusion than is injected to heat the plasma. Here we present a method based on deep learning for forecasting disruptions. Our method extends considerably the capabilities of previous strategies such as first-principles-based and classical machine-learning approaches. In particular, it delivers reliable predictions for machines other than the one on which it was trained—a crucial requirement for future large reactors that cannot afford training disruptions. Our approach takes advantage of high-dimensional training data to boost predictive performance while also engaging supercomputing resources at the largest scale to improve accuracy and speed. Trained on experimental data from the largest tokamaks in the United States (DIII-D) and the world (Joint European Torus, JET), our method can also be applied to specific tasks such as prediction with long warning times: this opens up the possibility of moving from passive disruption prediction to active reactor control and optimization. These initial results illustrate the potential for deep learning to accelerate progress in fusion-energy science and, more generally, in the understanding and prediction of complex physical systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrated Commercial Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Prefeasibility Study at Rock Springs Uplift, Wyoming (Final Report)

To establish the potential of safe, long-term commercial-scale carbon capture & storage (CCS) in southwestern Wyoming, the University of Wyoming formed a CCS coordination team (CCT) to complete a Phase I CarbonSAFE pre-feasibility study adjacent to the region’s largest coal-fired power plant, the Jim Bridger Plant (JBP). The study’s primary objective was to evaluate the potential of storing 50+ million metric tons of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in stacked reservoirs over a period of 25 years. In addition, this integrated study evaluated related aspects of carbon capture utilization & storage (CCUS) at the study site, including: (1) the CO 2 character of post-combustion flue gas from JBP and the technical capacity for retrofitting proven commercial-scale CO 2 capture technology relative to CO 2 source character and technological constraints; (2) utilization of the existing CO 2 pipeline network in the immediate vicinity of JBP for enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) and utilizing that network as part of a regional hub for CO 2 storage from other anthropogenic sources; (3) assessment of the challenges and benefits of meeting all of CarbonSAFE programmatic Phase I goals relative to Wyoming’s carbon management regulatory framework; and (4) assessment of the community and environmental factors that may impact CCS at JBP. With respect to storage, we analyzed the potential of stacked Mesozoic reservoirs at the study site, focusing on the Entrada and Nugget sandstones. The reservoir response to injection simulations varied greatly between formations, though they both were capable of CO 2 storage. The Entrada Sandstone is relative thin (~40’) and heterogeneous; storage using one injection and production well was limited to 1.2 Mt over 25 years at the study site. The Nugget Sandstone is much thicker (> 400’) and generally homogeneous; storage using one injection and production well approached 15.0 Mt over 25 years; this scenario suggests that the storage potential in the Nugget Sandstone is close to the estimated P90 calculation of 9.6 Mt/mi 2 as models indicate a storage potential of 8.3 Mt/mi 2 at saturation. Both reservoirs’ storage capacity benefited greatly from coupling an injection well with an offset production well; total storage capacity increased and reservoir pressure stayed below critical thresholds. This indicates that implementing a pressure management strategy at the study site would optimize storage and decrease risk. Seals associated with the targeted reservoirs were shown to be capable of retaining the potential storage volumes, and the site benefits from multiple seal redundancies (i.e. > 7,000’ of seal formations). Furthermore, assessment of different reservoir variables (e.g., fluid composition, pressure, etc.) indicates all reservoirs at the study site are isolated. Storage assessments from Mesozoic reservoirs were coupled with simulations from the site’s Paleozoic reservoirs (the Weber Sandstone and Madison Limestone), which were the focus of previous study. The fully integrated stacked reservoir pre-feasibility studies suggest that the Nugget and Madison formations alone could safely store 50 million metric tons of CO 2 within the study site. Furthermore, both formations are true saline reservoirs near JBP, making them ideal target reservoirs for CO 2 sequestration. Analysis of Wyoming’s laws and regulations confirm that the State has a favorable policy environment for CCS/CCUS. The project’s economic models estimated that the following revenues collectively are sufficient to finance the project over its lifespan if CO 2 utilization is coupled with CCS via the following strategies: (1) sales of CO 2 for EOR (approximately $69 million/year); (2) use of CO 2 tax credits such as amended §45Q and §48A (approximately $484 million total); and (3) sales of low-carbon electricity and marketable carbon offset/credits into carbon-constrained markets (approximately $11-$17 million/year) to West Coast consumers. These revenue estimates are broadly consistent with other studies that concluded arbitrage in JBP retail electricity sales between California and Wyoming could help to support the cost of deploying CCS at JBP. The models also indicate that maintaining a successful business case for long-term CCS -- wherein associated capture, transportation and operational costs are fully addressed at JBP -- is reliant on numerous external factors that complicate predictions. This study suggests that this site meets the CarbonSAFE program’s requirements of being able to feasibly store 50+ million metric tons of CO 2 over 25 years within the site’s stacked reservoirs, especially if coupled with pressure management strategies. This study suggests that the Nugget Sandstone and the Madison Limestone are two of the best reservoirs in the State with respect to overall storage capacity. In addition, the site’s proximity to existing CO 2 transportation networks, CO 2 -EOR opportunities, ability to sell to markets that value low-carbon electricity, Wyoming’s existing carbon regulatory framework, and a public that is well-educated with respect to energy markets and issues collectively increase the potential for implementing commercial-scale CCS adjacent to the JBP. With respect to the available technical and non-technical site data, and the reservoir quality at the study site, we suggest that this site is capable of moving directly into Phase III of the CarbonSAFE program.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Dual interfacial H-bonding-enhanced deep-blue hybrid copper–iodide LEDs

Solution-processed light-emitting diodes based on non-toxic copper–iodide hybrids are a compelling solution for efficient and stable deep-blue lighting, owing to their tunability, high photoluminescence efficiency and environmental sustainability. Here we present a hybrid copper–iodide that shows near-unity photoluminescence quantum yield (99.6%) with an emission wavelength of 449 nm and colour coordinates (0.147, 0.087), alongside its emission mechanism and charge transport characteristics. Here, we use the thin film of this hybrid as the sole active emissive layer to fabricate deep-blue light-emitting diodes and subsequently enhance the device performance through a dual interfacial hydrogen-bond passivation strategy. This synergetic surface modification approach, integrating a hydrogen-bond-acceptor self-assembled monolayer with an ultrathin polymethyl methacrylate capping layer, effectively passivates both heterojunctions of the copper–iodide hybrid emissive layer and optimizes charge injections. We achieve a maximum external quantum efficiency of 12.57%, a maximum luminance of 3,970.30 cd m −2 with colour coordinates (0.147, 0.091) and an excellent operational stability (half-lifetime) of 204 hours under ambient conditions. We further showcase a large-area device of 4 cm 2 that maintains high efficiency. Our findings reveal the potential of copper–iodide-based hybrid materials for applications in solid-state lighting and display technologies, offering a versatile strategy for enhancing device performances.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

FLEX-FUEL MIXING CONTROLLED COMBUSTION ENABLED BY PRECHAMBER IGNITION

There is an imminent need to displace fossil diesel fuel with cleaner burning, domestically produced, renewable fuels for use in heavy-duty engines. Bioethanol is a prime candidate as it widely adopted in the U.S. as a gasoline additive ranging in volume percentage from 10% (E10) up to 85% (E85). Direct substitution of market available ethanol-gasoline blends for diesel fuel is not plausible as the stark reactivity differences would not constitute the same ignition quality nor achieve auto-ignition at all. This work focuses on the development of prechamber enabled mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) as an advanced combustion strategy to facilitate reliable ignition and diffusion style combustion ethanol-gasoline fuel blends. PC-MCC involves integration of an actively fueled prechamber (PC) into a conventional compression ignition combustion system. When ignited, the PC ejects hot turbulent jets into the main combustion chamber that then interact with the direct injected fuel, prompting immediate ignition. The PC jet flames provide a robust thermal ignition source that allows the engine to operate agnostic of fuel composition, or flex-fuel. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to assess critical design features of the PC while garnering insights into the ignition strategies that facilitate robust performance. A key finding was the ignition performance benefits of fuel-rich PC operation which yield exothermic jets. Based on the numerical findings, a prototype igniter was tested experimentally on both single and multi-cylinder engine platforms at a variety of operating conditions. The experimental results indicate flex-fuel PC-MCC is well capable of diesel-like combustion processes by demonstrating matched or improved gross thermal efficiencies and load variability within 2%. Fuel grade ethanol (E98) exhibited consistently lower NOx and immeasurable soot across the load space. E98 also demonstrated a significant improvement in thermal efficiency at light loads.

Zeman, Jared↗

Non‐Traditional Positively‐Biased Narrow‐Band Perovskite Single‐Crystal Photodetectors Enabled by Interfacial Engineering

Abstract The positive bias in theory narrows down the depletion region and thus results in significant charge injection, which should be detrimental to charge generation and collection performance for traditional photodetectors. Here, instead, it is found that the external quantum efficiency (EQE) is increased by more than 50 times when the photodetector is positively biased. A positive bias of +6 V drives ion migration of Br − and Cs + towards the anode and cathode, respectively, leading to self‐doping within bulk single crystals to form an advantageous p‐i‐n junction for better charge collection in the devices. Meanwhile, the injected holes are allowed to tunnel through the cesium lead bromide/fullerene interface to reach the cathode which also significantly contributes to the enhancement of EQE in the forward‐biased devices. The positively‐biased narrow‐band (full width at half maxima (FWHM) = 16 nm) photodetectors exhibit a specific detectivity of 6.5 × 10 10 Jones at 550 nm, along with the −3 dB cutoff frequency of 2776 Hz. By manipulating charge injection and ion migration using interfacial engineering, a class of non‐traditional, positively‐biased, and highly narrow‐band photodetectors is demonstrated, which offers an alternative design strategy for imaging, biosensing, automatic control, and optical communication.

Li, Junchi↗

Geologic CO 2 sequestration monitoring design: A machine learning and uncertainty quantification based approach

Monitoring is a crucial aspect of geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration risk management. Effective monitoring is critical to ensure CO 2 is safely and permanently stored throughout the life-cycle of a geologic CO 2 sequestration project. Effective monitoring involves deciding: (i) where is the optimal location to place the monitoring well(s), and (ii) what type of data (pressure, temperature, CO 2 saturation, etc.) should be measured taking into consideration the uncertainties at geologic sequestration sites. We have developed a filtering-based data assimilation procedure to design effective monitoring approaches. To reduce the computational cost of the filtering-based data assimilation process, a machine-learning algorithm: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines is used to derive computationally effcient reduced order models from results of full-physics numerical simulations of CO 2 injection in saline aquifer and subsequent multi-phase fluid flow. We use example scenarios of CO 2 leakage through legacy wellbore and demonstrate a monitoring strategy can be selected with the aim of reducing uncertainty in metrics related to CO 2 leakage. We demonstrate the proposed framework with two synthetic examples: a simple validation case and a more complicated case including multiple monitoring wells. The examples demonstrate that the proposed approach can be effective in developing monitoring approaches that take into consideration uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Frequency Response Improvement in a Standalone Small Hydropower Plant Using Battery Storage

This paper proposes a control architecture for frequency, current, and voltage control that facilitates using battery storage to improve the response of standalone small hydropower plants. The frequency controller uses rate-of-change of frequency and frequency-Watt-based generations to produce active power commands. The distinctive feature of the controller design is that it nicely integrates response to frequency change with constraints on frequency and state of battery to enable power injections. The current and voltage control scheme allows incorporating the frequency controller. The distinctive feature of this controller is that it incorporates a bounded integral control strategy that guarantees stability. Results on the stability of the hydropower plant with proposed scheme are presented and robust ways to choose the controller gains are investigated via root locus analysis. In conclusion, simulations performed show that: the hydropower plant response is significantly improved with battery storage using the proposed scheme; the load carrying capability of the hydropower plant is significantly improved with battery storage; the proposed scheme has the capability to recharge the battery; and the proposed control scheme gives improved performance.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States

This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Seamless Transition of Critical Infrastructures using Droop Controlled Grid-forming Inverters

Seamless recovery of power to critical infrastructures, after grid failure, is a crucial need arising in scenarios that are increasingly becoming more frequent. Here, this article proposes a seamless transition strategy using a single and unified mode-dependent droop controlled grid-forming inverters. The control strategy achieves the following objectives: 1) regulates the output active and reactive power by the droop-controlled inverters to a desired value while operating in on-grid mode; 2) seamless transition and recovery of power injections into the load after grid failure by inverters that operates in grid-forming mode all the time; 3) requires only a single bit of information on the grid/network status for the mode transition. A framework for assessing the stability of the system and to guide the choice of parameters for controllers is developed using control-oriented modeling. A controller hardware-in-the-loop-based real-time simulation study on a test system based on the realistic electrical network of a commercial-scale medical center is conducted for initial prototyping of the control strategy. A hardware experiment is conducted with two 3 - $\phi$, 480 -V, 125 -kVA grid-forming inverters, a 3 - $\phi$, 480 -V, 270 -kVA grid simulator, a physical grid switch, and a physical load bank. The experimental data establishes the effectiveness of the always grid-forming operation and control of inverters in meeting power delivery objectives when on-grid and off-grid under various kinds of loads and scenarios while minimizing transients during transitions. Furthermore, performance comparison with existing strategies showcases the advantage of the proposed strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

Timescale for Detecting the Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could be used to maintain global mean temperature despite increased atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, for example to meet a 1.5C or 2C target. While this might reduce many climate change impacts, the resulting climate would not be the same as one with the same global mean temperature due to lower GHG concentrations. The primary question we consider is how long it would take to detect these differences in a hypothetical deployment. We use a recently available 20-member ensemble of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering simulations in which SO2 is injected at four different latitudes to maintain not just the global mean temperature, but also the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole gradients. This multiple-latitude strategy better matches the climate changes from increased GHG, while the ensemble allows us both to estimate residual differences even when they are small compared to natural variability, and to estimate the statistics of variability. We first construct a linear emulator to predict the model responses for different scenarios. Under an RCP4.5 scenario in which geoengineering maintains a 1.5C target (providing end-of-century cooling of 1.7C), the change in global mean precipitation is projected to have a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) greater than one after only 11 years. However, in this scenario, the projected temperature and precipitation changes at a grid-scale are typically small enough that in many regions this threshold is still not reached by the end of this century. These results provide some context for the projected magnitude of climate-changes associated with a limited deployment of stratospheric aerosol cooling.

42 ENGINEERING↗