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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for Joint Multimessenger Signals from Potential Galactic Cosmic-Ray Accelerators with HAWC and IceCube

The origin of high-energy galactic cosmic rays is yet to be understood, but some galactic cosmic-ray accelerators can accelerate cosmic rays up to PeV energies. The high-energy cosmic rays are expected to interact with the surrounding material or radiation, resulting in the production of gamma-rays and neutrinos. To optimize for the detection of such associated production of gamma-rays and neutrinos for a given source morphology and spectrum, a multimessenger analysis that combines gamma-rays and neutrinos is required. In this study, we use the Multi-Mission Maximum Likelihood framework with IceCube Maximum Likelihood Analysis software and HAWC Accelerated Likelihood to search for a correlation between 22 known gamma-ray sources from the third HAWC gamma-ray catalog and 14 yr of IceCube track-like data. No significant neutrino emission from the direction of the HAWC sources was found. We report the best-fit gamma-ray model and 90% CL neutrino flux limit from the 22 sources. From the neutrino flux limit, we conclude that, for five of the sources, the gamma-ray emission observed by HAWC cannot be produced purely from hadronic interactions. We report the limit for the fraction of gamma-rays produced by hadronic interactions for these five sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

UHMLE: Program description user guide

A program which computes maximum likelihood estimates for the general normal mixture is introduced. The program allows the user to fix any subsets of the mixture parameters; this fixed set may be redefined at various times in the iteration process. There is considerable time saved in computing the likelihoods if the diagonal form is specified. Hence, in the early iterations the diagonal assumption might be used, changing over to the full covariance mode later in the iteration process for a more refined solution. This flexibility allows the user to choose the sequence of parameter configurations in the iteration process which he feels will optimize the computation time required as well as possibly avoid convergence to suboptimal local maxima of the likelihood function.

Cobely, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Estimation of characteristics and stochastic control of an aircraft flying in atmospheric turbulence

An adaptive control technique to improve the flying qualities of an aircraft in turbulence was investigated. The approach taken was to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown coefficients of the aircraft system and then, using these estimates along with the separation principle, to define the stochastic optimal control. The maximum likelihood estimation technique that accounted for the effects of turbulence provided good estimates of the unknown coefficients and of the turbulence. The assessment of the stochastic optimal control based on the maximum likelihood estimates showed that the desired effects were attained for the regulator problem of minimizing pitch angle and the tracking problem of requiring normal acceleration to follow the pilot input.

Iliff, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1977

F-8C adaptive flight control laws

Three candidate digital adaptive control laws were designed for NASA's F-8C digital flyby wire aircraft. Each design used the same control laws but adjusted the gains with a different adaptative algorithm. The three adaptive concepts were: high-gain limit cycle, Liapunov-stable model tracking, and maximum likelihood estimation. Sensors were restricted to conventional inertial instruments (rate gyros and accelerometers) without use of air-data measurements. Performance, growth potential, and computer requirements were used as criteria for selecting the most promising of these candidates for further refinement. The maximum likelihood concept was selected primarily because it offers the greatest potential for identifying several aircraft parameters and hence for improved control performance in future aircraft application. In terms of identification and gain adjustment accuracy, the MLE design is slightly superior to the other two, but this has no significant effects on the control performance achievable with the F-8C aircraft. The maximum likelihood design is recommended for flight test, and several refinements to that design are proposed.

Hartmann, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Multiple object tracking with non-unique data-to-object association via generalized hypothesis testing

A generalized hypothesis testing approach is applied to the problem of tracking several objects where several different associations of data with objects are possible. Such problems occur, for instance, when attempting to distinctly track several aircraft maneuvering near each other or when tracking ships at sea. Conceptually, the problem is solved by first, associating data with objects in a statistically reasonable fashion and then, tracking with a bank of Kalman filters. The objects are assumed to have motion characterized by a fixed but unknown deterministic portion plus a random process portion modeled by a shaping filter. For example, the object might be assumed to have a mean straight line path about which it maneuvers in a random manner. Several hypothesized associations of data with objects are possible because of ambiguity as to which object the data comes from, false alarm/detection errors, and possible uncertainty in the number of objects being tracked. The statistical likelihood function is computed for each possible hypothesized association of data with objects. Then the generalized likelihood is computed by maximizing the likelihood over parameters that define the deterministic motion of the object.

Porter, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

An evaluation of several different classification schemes - Their parameters and performance

The overall objective of this study was to apply and evaluate several of the currently available classification schemes for crop identification. The approaches examined were: (1) a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier, (2) a per point sum of normal densities classifier, (3) a per point linear classifier, (4) a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood decision tree classifier, and (5) a texture sensitive per field Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier. Three agricultural data sets were used in the study: areas from Fayette County, Illinois, and Pottawattamie and Shelby Counties in Iowa. The segments were located in two distinct regions of the Corn Belt to sample variability in soils, climate, and agricultural practices.

Scholz, D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation of several schemes for classification of remotely sensed data

Various numerical analysis schemes for the classification of remotely sensed data are evaluated with respect to their capabilities for crop identification. A per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier, per point sum-of-normal-densities classifier, per point linear classifier, per point Gaussian maximum likelihood decision tree classifier and a texture-sensitive per field Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier were applied to seven sets of Landsat MSS data on several crop types and regions. The results of the implementation of the classifiers indicate that, given a representative set of training statistics, the choice of classification algorithm of the differentiation of corn and soybeans from one another and from other crop types made relatively little difference in accuracy, whereas the use of a different training method affected the accuracy significantly. In addition, the linear classifier is found to be the easiest for the analyst to use and to cost least in computer time per classification.

Hixson, M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Comparison of wheat classification accuracy using different classifiers of the image-100 system

Classification results using single-cell and multi-cell signature acquisition options, a point-by-point Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, and K-means clustering of the Image-100 system are presented. Conclusions reached are that: a better indication of correct classification can be provided by using a test area which contains various cover types of the study area; classification accuracy should be evaluated considering both the percentages of correct classification and error of commission; supervised classification approaches are better than K-means clustering; Gaussian distribution maximum likelihood classifier is better than Single-cell and Multi-cell Signature Acquisition Options of the Image-100 system; and in order to obtain a high classification accuracy in a large and heterogeneous crop area, using Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, homogeneous spectral subclasses of the study crop should be created to derive training statistics.

Dejesusparada, N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Bayesian estimation of normal mixture parameters

A Bayesian, or penalized maximum likelihood, approach to the problem of estimating the parameters of a mixture of multivariate normal distributions is proposed. The Bayesian formulation eliminates the problem of singularities in the likelihood function and results in an attractive EM-like procedure. Although the question of consistency is not settled, it is suggested that the proposed method has certain advantages over both the constrained and unconstrained maximum likelihood procedures.

Peters, C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Determining crop residue type and class using satellite acquired data

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data for March 23, 1987 with accompanying ground truth data for the study area in Miami County, IN were used to determine crop residue type and class. Principle components and spectral ratioing transformations were applied to the LANDSAT TM data. One graphic information system (GIS) layer of land ownership was added to each original image as the eighth band of data in an attempt to improve classification. Maximum likelihood, minimum distance, and neural networks were used to classify the original, transformed, and GIS-enhanced remotely sensed data. Crop residues could be separated from one another and from bare soil and other biomass. Two types of crop residue and four classes were identified from each LANDSAT TM image. The maximum likelihood classifier performed the best classification for each original image without need of any transformation. The neural network classifier was able to improve the classification by incorporating a GIS-layer of land ownership as an eighth band of data. The maximum likelihood classifier was unable to consider this eighth band of data and thus, its results could not be improved by its consideration.

Zhuang, Xin↗
NASA NTRS1990

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

Safavian, S. Rasoul↗
NASA NTRS1993

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Pina, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

GRO/EGRET data analysis software: An integrated system of custom and commercial software using standard interfaces

The Energetic Gamma Ray Telescope Experiment (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory has been in orbit for more than a year and is being used to map the full sky for gamma rays in a wide energy range from 30 to 20,000 MeV. Already these measurements have resulted in a wide range of exciting new information on quasars, pulsars, galactic sources, and diffuse gamma ray emission. The central part of the analysis is done with sky maps that typically cover an 80 x 80 degree section of the sky for an exposure time of several days. Specific software developed for this program generates the counts, exposure, and intensity maps. The analysis is done on a network of UNIX based workstations and takes full advantage of a custom-built user interface called X-dialog. The maps that are generated are stored in the FITS format for a collection of energies. These, along with similar diffuse emission background maps generated from a model calculation, serve as input to a maximum likelihood program that produces maps of likelihood with optional contours that are used to evaluate regions for sources. Likelihood also evaluates the background corrected intensity at each location for each energy interval from which spectra can be generated. Being in a standard FITS format permits all of the maps to be easily accessed by the full complement of tools available in several commercial astronomical analysis systems. In the EGRET case, IDL is used to produce graphics plots in two and three dimensions and to quickly implement any special evaluation that might be desired. Other custom-built software, such as the spectral and pulsar analyses, take advantage of the XView toolkit for display and Postscript output for the color hard copy. This poster paper outlines the data flow and provides examples of the user interfaces and output products. It stresses the advantages that are derived from the integration of the specific instrument-unique software and powerful commercial tools for graphics and statistical evaluation. This approach has several proven advantages including flexibility, a minimum of development effort, ease of use, and portability.

Laubenthal, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

DECONV-TOOL: An IDL based deconvolution software package

There are a variety of algorithms for deconvolution of blurred images, each having its own criteria or statistic to be optimized in order to estimate the original image data. Using the Interactive Data Language (IDL), we have implemented the Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Maximum Residual Likelihood, and sigma-CLEAN algorithms in a unified environment called DeConv_Tool. Most of the algorithms have as their goal the optimization of statistics such as standard deviation and mean of residuals. Shannon entropy, log-likelihood, and chi-square of the residual auto-correlation are computed by DeConv_Tool for the purpose of determining the performance and convergence of any particular method and comparisons between methods. DeConv_Tool allows interactive monitoring of the statistics and the deconvolved image during computation. The final results, and optionally, the intermediate results, are stored in a structure convenient for comparison between methods and review of the deconvolution computation. The routines comprising DeConv_Tool are available via anonymous FTP through the IDL Astronomy User's Library.

Varosi, F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparisons of neural networks to standard techniques for image classification and correlation

Neural network techniques for multispectral image classification and spatial pattern detection are compared to the standard techniques of maximum-likelihood classification and spatial correlation. The neural network produced a more accurate classification than maximum-likelihood of a Landsat scene of Tucson, Arizona. Some of the errors in the maximum-likelihood classification are illustrated using decision region and class probability density plots. As expected, the main drawback to the neural network method is the long time required for the training stage. The network was trained using several different hidden layer sizes to optimize both the classification accuracy and training speed, and it was found that one node per class was optimal. The performance improved when 3x3 local windows of image data were entered into the net. This modification introduces texture into the classification without explicit calculation of a texture measure. Larger windows were successfully used for the detection of spatial features in Landsat and Magellan synthetic aperture radar imagery.

Paola, Justin D.↗