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Space station systems analysis study. Part 2, Volume 3: Appendixes, Book 1. Program requirements documentation

The objective elements representative of the kinds of space activities that will be supported by the space construction base (SCB) are discussed in (1) a brief mission overview including the primary purpose and general objectives; (2) descriptions of the processes involved (where applicable), the mission hardware, the principal activities to be undertaken, the test requirements, and the principal tests; and (3) the SCB requirements including such items as special devices (e.g., fabrication modules, assembly or construction fixtures, cranes, and airlocks), power, data management and communications, waste management, environmental control, safety, and logistics. Each program option is then described in terms of the objective elements it supports, its orbit, the general makeup of the SCB, the transportation approach, and the program schedule goals. The specific requirements that are imposed on the SCB in order to support program option L are given.

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Operations analysis (study 2.1). Program SEPSIM (solar electric propulsion stage simulation)

Program SEPSIM is a FORTRAN program which performs deployment, servicing, and retrieval missions to synchronous equatorial orbit using a space tug with a continuous low thrust upper stage known as a solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS). The SEPS ferries payloads back and forth between an intermediate orbit and synchronous orbit, and performs the necessary servicing maneuvers in synchronous orbit. The tug carries payloads between the orbiter and the intermediate orbit, deploys fully fueled SEPS vehicles, and retrieves exhausted SEPS vehicles when, and if, required. The program is presently contained in subroutine form in the Logistical On-orbit VEhicle Servicing (LOVES) Program, but can also be run independently with the addition of a simple driver program.

Lang, T. J.↗

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

The latest generation of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites has brought a new dimension to continuous monitoring of the living part of the Earth System, the biosphere. EOS data can now provide weekly global measures of vegetation productivity and ocean chlorophyll, and many related biophysical factors such as land cover changes or snowmelt rates. However, the highest economic value would come from forecasting impending conditions of the biosphere, to allow decision makers to mitigate dangers or exploit positive trends. NASA's strategic plan for the Earth Science Enterprise i d e n a s ecological forecasting as a focus for research. Ecological forecasting predicts the effects of changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment on ecosystem activity. Possible applications of such a system include predicting shortfalls or bumper crops of agricultural production, populations of threatened or invasive species or wildfire danger in time to allow improves preparation and logistical efficiency. Petabytes of remote sensing data are now available to help measure, understand and forecast changes in the Earth system, but using these data effectively can be surprisingly hard. The volume and variety of data files and formats are daunting. Simple data management activities, such as locating and transferring files, changing file formats, gridding point data, and scaling and reprojecting gridded data, can consume far more personnel time and resources than the actual data analysis. Some scientists commit to a particular data source or resolution just because using anything different would be more effort that it's worth. Better tools can help, but most of the tools developed to date are little more than shell scripts; they lack the flexibility to meet the diverse needs of users and are difficult to extend to handle changes in available data sources.

Golden, Keith↗

A Near-Term, High-Confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle

The use of well understood, legacy elements of the Space Shuttle system could yield a near-term, high-confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle that offers significant performance, reliability, schedule, risk, cost, and work force transition benefits. A side-mount Shuttle-Derived Vehicle (SDV) concept has been defined that has major improvements over previous Shuttle-C concepts. This SDV is shown to carry crew plus large logistics payloads to the ISS, support an operationally efficient and cost effective program of lunar exploration, and offer the potential to support commercial launch operations. This paper provides the latest data and estimates on the configurations, performance, concept of operations, reliability and safety, development schedule, risks, costs, and work force transition opportunities for this optimized side-mount SDV concept. The results presented in this paper have been based on established models and fully validated analysis tools used by the Space Shuttle Program, and are consistent with similar analysis tools commonly used throughout the aerospace industry. While these results serve as a factual basis for comparisons with other launch system architectures, no such comparisons are presented in this paper. The authors welcome comparisons between this optimized SDV and other Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle concepts.

Rothschild, William J.↗

The Efficacy of Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Forecasts for Predicting Vegetation Activity Over Africa

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) provides important information on terrestrial hydroclimate and may have value for seasonal forecasting because of its strong persistence. We use the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS) to investigate TWS forecast skill over Africa and assess its value for predicting vegetation activity from satellite estimates of leaf area index (LAI). Forecast skill is high over East and Southern Africa, extending up to 3–6 months in some cases, with more modest skill over West Africa. Highest skill generally occurs during the dry season or beginning of the wet season when TWS anomalies from the previous wet season are most likely to carry forward in time. In East Africa, this occurs prior to and during the transition into the spring “Long Rains” from January–March, while in Southern Africa this period of highest skill starts at the beginning of the dry season in April and extends through to the start of the wet season in October. TWS is highly and positively correlated with LAI, and a logistic regression model shows high cross-validation skill in predicting above or below normal LAI using TWS. Combining the LAI regression model with the NHyFAS forecasts, 1-month lead LAI predictions have high accuracy over East and Southern Africa, with reduced but significant skill at 3-month leads over smaller sub-regions. This highlights the potential value of TWS as an additional source of information for seasonal forecasts over Africa, with direct applications to some of the most vulnerable agricultural regions on the continent.

Terrestrial water shortage↗

Aircraft stress sequence development: A complex engineering process made simple

Development of stress sequences for critical aircraft structure requires flight measured usage data, known aircraft loads, and established relationships between aircraft flight loads and structural stresses. Resulting cycle-by-cycle stress sequences can be directly usable for crack growth analysis and coupon spectra tests. Often, an expert in loads and spectra development manipulates the usage data into a typical sequence of representative flight conditions for which loads and stresses are calculated. For a fighter/trainer type aircraft, this effort is repeated many times for each of the fatigue critical locations (FCL) resulting in expenditure of numerous engineering hours. The Aircraft Stress Sequence Computer Program (ACSTRSEQ), developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract to San Antonio Air Logistics Center, presents a unique approach for making complex technical computations in a simple, easy to use method. The program is written in Microsoft Visual Basic for the Microsoft Windows environment.

Schrader, K. H.↗

Nuclear Lunar Logistics Study

This document has been prepared to incorporate all presentation aid material, together with some explanatory text, used during an oral briefing on the Nuclear Lunar Logistics System given at the George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, on 18 July 1963. The briefing and this document are intended to present the general status of the NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) nuclear rocket development, the characteristics of certain operational NERVA-class engines, and appropriate technical and schedule information. Some of the information presented herein is preliminary in nature and will be subject to further verification, checking and analysis during the remainder of the study program. In addition, more detailed information will be prepared in many areas for inclusion in a final summary report. This work has been performed by REON, a division of Aerojet-General Corporation under Subcontract 74-10039 from the Lockheed Missiles and Space Company. The presentation and this document have been prepared in partial fulfillment of the provisions of the subcontract. From the inception of the NERVA program in July 1961, the stated emphasis has centered around the demonstration of the ability of a nuclear rocket to perform safely and reliably in the space environment, with the understanding that the assignment of a mission (or missions) would place undue emphasis on performance and operational flexibility. However, all were aware that the ultimate justification for the development program must lie in the application of the nuclear propulsion system to the national space objectives.

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Orbital transfer vehicle concept definition and system analysis study, 1985. Volume 2: OTV concept definition and evaluation. Book 4: Operations

The benefits of the reusable Space Shuttle and the advent of the new Space Station hold promise for increasingly effective utilization of space by the scientific and commercial as well as military communities. A high energy reusable oribital transfer vehicle (OTV) represents an additional capability which also exhibits potential for enhancing space access by allowing more ambitious missions and at the same time reducing launch costs when compared to existing upper stages. This section, Vol. 2: Book 4, covers launch operations and flight operations. The launch operations section covers analyses of ground based and space based vehicles, launch site facilities, logistics requirements, propellant loading, space based maintenance and aft cargo carrier access options. The flight operations sections contain summary descriptions of ground based and space based OTV missions, operations and support requirements, and a discussion of fleet implications.

Mitchell, Jack C.↗

System analysis study of space platform and station accommodations for life sciences research facilities. Volume 2: Study results. Appendix D: Life sciences research facility requirements

The purpose of this requirements document is to develop the foundation for concept development for the Life Sciences Research Facility (LSRF) on the Space Station. These requirements are developed from the perspective of a Space Station laboratory module outfitter. Science and mission requirements including those related to specimens are set forth. System requirements, including those for support, are detailed. Functional and design requirements are covered in the areas of structures, mechanisms, electrical power, thermal systems, data management system, life support, and habitability. Finally, interface requirements for the Command Module and Logistics Module are described.

Wiley, Lowell F.↗

Analysis of Water Surplus at the Lunar Outpost

This paper evaluates the benefits to the lunar architecture and outpost of having a surplus of water, or a surplus of energy in the form of hydrogen and oxygen, as it has been predicted by Constellation Program's Lunar Surface System analyses. Assumptions and a scenario are presented leading to the water surplus and the revolutionary surface element options for improving the lunar exploration architecture and mission objectives. For example, some of the elements that can benefit from a water surplus are: the power system energy storage can minimize the use of battery systems by replacing batteries with higher energy density fuel cell systems; battery packs on logistics pallets can also be minimized; mobility asset power system mass can be reduced enabling more consumables and extended roving duration and distance; small robotic vehicles (hoppers) can be used to increase the science exploration range by sending round-trip robotic missions to anywhere on the Moon using in-situ produced propellants.

Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo↗

Space Operations Center - A concept analysis

The Space Operations Center (SOC) which is a concept for a Shuttle serviced, permanent, manned facility in low earth orbit is viewed as a major candidate for the manned space flight following the completion of an operational Shuttle. The primary objectives of SOC are: (1) the construction, checkout, and transfer to operational orbit of large, complex space systems, (2) on-orbit assembly, launch, recovery, and servicing of manned and unmanned spacecraft, (3) managing operations of co-orbiting free-flying satellites, and (4) the development of reduced dependence on earth for control and resupply. The structure of SOC, a self-contained orbital facility containing several Shuttle launched modules, includes the service, habitation, and logistics modules as well as construction, and flight support facilities. A schedule is proposed for the development of SOC over ten years and costs for the yearly programs are estimated.

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The Conference Proceedings of the 2001 Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) of the WCTR Society

The ATRS held its 5th Annual conference at the City University of Hong Kong Campus in July 2001. The conference was a success with nearly 140 participants including 70 presenters. Titles that comprise Volume 2 include: Intelligent Airport Gate Assignment System; A Study on the Effects of the Personality Compatibility to the Job Performance; ITS/CVO Application for Air cargo Transportation in Korea; An Airport as a Logistics and Economic Hub: The Case of Incheon International Airport; The Impact Of Aviation Safety over the Consumer's Behavior; The Integration of China and Taiwan Air Networks for Direct Air Cargo Services; Quality perception and carrier choice in Civil Aviation; Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making; Cooperation Among German Airports in Europe; Inbound and Outbound Air Passenger Traffic Forecasting between the United States and Selected Asian countries; An Evaluation of Alternative Facilities for Airport Redevelopment using Fuzzy Linguistic Approach; Economic Analysis of Airline Alliances; The Aviation Cooperation between the two Koreas Preparing for the Reunification of the Peninsula; and A Study on the Air Transport Cooperation in Northeast Asia between China, Japan and Korea.

Lee, Yeong-Heok↗

Pilot Assessment of Immune Dysregulation, Stress and Latent Herpesvirus Reactivation at Palmer, Antarctica - Platform for validation of Immune Countermeasures?

Recent studieshave characterized adverse health events potentially relatedto immune system dysregulation, latent herpesvirus reactivation, and clinical incidence for crewmembers onboard ISS. Both areview article describing potential spaceflight countermeasures related to immunityand a specific countermeasures protocol for deep space missions were recently published. An appropriate ground analogto enable spaceflight countermeasures has yet to be validated, although winterover in Antarctica (AWO) seems a highly relevant mission parallel to spaceflight. AWO consists of prolonged deployment, extreme environment, circadian misalignment, personal isolation, station lifestyle (varies by base), and personal risk. Through several studies, AWO at several European bases has beencharacterized, and to date the data has revealed that (immunologically) deployment to interior bases at elevation and with persistent hypobaric hypoxia possesses certaindissimilarities to spaceflight. This proposal seeks to collect low cost pilot data assessing stress, immunity and viral reactivation during AWOat thecoastalU.S. Palmer Station. Even among coastal bases, lifestyle, available crew time/workload and logistical access can vary considerably. Considering all factors, if validated, Palmer may be the most feasible location to evaluate NASA countermeasures. The goal of this pilot study is to ascertain if Palmer may serve as a spaceflight analog option for ground validation of immune countermeasures.The study initiatedwith the crew deployed for winterover at Palmer in 2020.A second crew participated in the recently concluded WO2021 season.All participatingcrew havecollectedand preservedsaliva, plasma and hair samples. On location, the crewmembers alsoperformeda fingerstick blood collection for immediate analysis of basic peripheral leukocyte subsets. Preserved biosamples have beenreturned for analysis, with the WO2020 samples received, and the WO2021 samples currently en-route to Houston. It should be noted that COVID-19 had significant impacts on operations, including training and the collection of pre-mission baseline samples. Preliminary data from the 2020 crewmembers indicate that a relatively mild but detectable immune dysregulation persists at Palmer Station, including alterations in concentration of some plasma cytokines and consistent increases in the incidence of EBV reactivation. Final study data will be tabulated upon receipt of the 2021 crew samples.

Stephanie Krieger↗

Autonomous In-space Construction, Maintenance, and Reconfiguration Using Programmable Meta-Material

NASA ARC's Coded Structures Laboratory (CSL) is developing autonomous construction, maintenance, and reconfiguration technologies to meet long-duration and deep space infrastructure needs, in accordance with long-term NASA goals of "in-space reliance" and "mass-less exploration." We seek to achieve these capabilities by utilizing a "programmable meta-material" approach that integrates emerging advances in materials (mechanical meta-materials), manufacturing (cooperative mobile robotics), and autonomy (multi-agent planning algorithms). Through the ARMADAS project, we have shown assembly of high-performance engineered cellular materials using multiple cooperating mobile robotic assemblers. In this paper, we describe how such a programmable meta-material architecture may shift the paradigm of how we design, build, manufacture, and operate future space infrastructure and assets. The core of a programmable meta-material architecture consists of 3 main technology sub-areas: the structure, the assembly agents, and the assembly algorithms. We co-design these systems to ensure an adaptable system that can create and reconfigure structures from a base set of building block components. From this core technology, we can branch out and expand the capability of the system through additional secondary component types and robotic agents to perform activities such as inspections, maintenance, repair, payload installation, or perform power and communications interconnect. As these technologies mature, future designers will be able to utilize the system to rapidly integrate and operate assets in space or on planetary surfaces from a set of well-tested part library, or create their own modules to integrate into the system. A core trait to the development of this system is the automation approach. Because of the modular and functional discrete (pixel-like) nature of the structural system, a diverse set of powerful algorithms for analysis, planning, and simulation can be adapted and leveraged to optimize construction, maintenance, and dynamic reorganization (as hardware with programmable form and function). With an ability to free the design space from launch vehicle constraints and fundamentally shift how a mission is designed and conducted, we discuss the influence of a programmable meta-material architecture on mission design, build, and operations. For the "design phase", we discuss project lifecycle effects, costs, time, and performance. For the "build phase", we discuss reusability, ISRU, manufacturing, material logistics, and scalability. And for "operations", we discuss autonomy, maintenance and upgrades, reliability, and reconfiguration. Autonomy and modularity are the primary enabling traits of this system. Engineering systems that utilize a modular and reconfiguration building block approach such as digital communication and computation systems, currently lead all other areas of technology in size and complexity scalability. NASA is extending the benefits and flexibility of digital systems to hardware systems, to optimize materials lifecycle management and expand our space exploration mission capabilities.

in space assembly↗

Developing Ultra Reliable Life Support for the Moon and Mars

Recycling life support systems can achieve ultra reliability by using spares to replace failed components. The added mass for spares is approximately equal to the original system mass, provided the original system reliability is not very low. Acceptable reliability can be achieved for the space shuttle and space station by preventive maintenance and by replacing failed units, However, this maintenance and repair depends on a logistics supply chain that provides the needed spares. The Mars mission must take all the needed spares at launch. The Mars mission also must achieve ultra reliability, a very low failure rate per hour, since it requires years rather than weeks and cannot be cut short if a failure occurs. Also, the Mars mission has a much higher mass launch cost per kilogram than shuttle or station. Achieving ultra reliable space life support with acceptable mass will require a well-planned and extensive development effort. Analysis must define the reliability requirement and allocate it to subsystems and components. Technologies, components, and materials must be designed and selected for high reliability. Extensive testing is needed to ascertain very low failure rates. Systems design should segregate the failure causes in the smallest, most easily replaceable parts. The systems must be designed, produced, integrated, and tested without impairing system reliability. Maintenance and failed unit replacement should not introduce any additional probability of failure. The overall system must be tested sufficiently to identify any design errors. A program to develop ultra reliable space life support systems with acceptable mass must start soon if it is to produce timely results for the moon and Mars.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Growth Curve Parameterization of Metabolic Activity of Yeast Cells for BioSentinel

The goal of the BioSentinel small satellite payload is to measure the effect of deep space radiation on the growth and metabolic activity of yeast cells. Raw test data is generated by fluidics cards containing yeast cells rehydrated at different periods, with metabolic activity measured by the reduction of alamarBlue. Each card well has a sensor array that measures the amount of red, green, and infrared light transmitted through the yeast culture. This illumination data is then converted to absorbance values, which are further converted into concentrations. The ultimate objective is to convert these concentrations into biologically-relevant metrics that can be compared against one another to determine changes due to differential radiation exposure. Beginning with IR absorbance data (corresponding to cell density) from ground studies, three parameters from a sigmoidal growth curve were extracted and analyzed: 𝜆 (lag phase), 𝜇 (max growth rate), and A (max cell growth). The data was fit to the Gompertz model of microbial growth using non-linear regression (Minitab), as the fit error was reduced compared to the simpler logistic growth curve. Graphs showed that the data contained a discrepancy (drift) in the lag phase that is attributable to a slow, constant loss of moisture. Correcting this discrepancy by fitting the first 25 hours of the data to a power function and subtracting these values from the absorbance readings obtained a better statistical fit to the growth curve in the lag phase. A power fit was selected over a linear fit because it reflected the effects of constant volume loss. This correction to the BioSentinel data analysis pipeline will enable quantitative statistical analysis of the effect of different levels of deep space radiation on yeast cells. Future work includes automation of drift correction and curve modeling to extract these parameters directly from data.

Growth Curve↗

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗

Integrated Waste Trade Study: Lunar Surface to Deep Space

The Logistics Reduction Project is one of NASA's technology development projects that is preparing humanity for deep space missions. Reducing the mass and volume of logistical supplies that must be carried from Earth to support the missions and their crews is the primary goal of the project. Effective ways to achieve this goal include reducing, reusing, or recycling wastes generated throughout the mission. Due to the goal of the project, waste processing technologies were analyzed for Lunar surface missions at various lengths and an 850-day Mars transit mission to evaluate the potential benefits of waste processing pertaining to each mission. The technologies assessed include trash compaction, trash-to-gas and human metabolic waste processing technologies, integrated with the baseline architectures of each mission’s habitat. The fully integrated systems were analyzed using an equivalent system mass, which is a metric that encompasses the mass, volume, power and cooling of a system, resulting in an estimate of launch mass and serving as a proxy for cost. Each system’s equivalent system mass was compared to that of the baseline waste processing system of the respective habitat, hand compaction with storage for Lunar surface missions and hand compaction with jettisoning for Mars transit, to evaluate whether the traded waste processing technology was beneficial. This analysis identifies a general trend that more sophisticated waste processing can be beneficial depending on the mission duration. For Lunar surface missions, the water recovery from waste processing can pay off over consecutive missions, due to offsetting the losses from the system via extravehicular activities. In contrast for Mars transit, the primary objective is mass removal from the spacecraft, so technologies like trash-to-gas are competitive with the baseline. Furthermore, the technologies which can recover resources from waste, such as water, may present additional advantages to an ever-changing Mars mission architecture.

Waste processing↗