Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Low Precision”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Microlith® Catalytic Oxidizer for Exploration Trace Contaminant Control

The state-of-the-art in long mission duration spacecraft trace contaminant control processes rely on high-temperature catalytic oxidation for light contaminant removal. Target compounds for oxidation include metabolic methane, carbon monoxide, and low molecular weight volatile organics such as formaldehyde and methanol. Precision Combustion, Inc. and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been developing and testing prototype high temperature catalytic oxidizers based on PCI’s patented Microlith® technology to meet the requirements of future spaceflight exploration missions. To this end, our latest generation Microlith oxidizer, featuring an integrated heat recuperator, was subjected to endurance testing to simulate catalyst ageing over a Mars transit mission duration. Periodic reactor health testing indicates our approach results in a robust contaminant control solution for exploration missions beyond low earth orbit. Based on the demonstrated performance of this unit, a next-generation prototype was designed to meet exploration contaminant load control demands while upgrading the prototype form and fit to match flight-compatible interfaces. Prototype design considerations intended to reduce power consumption, impacting process thermal and hydraulic performance, are discussed herein.

Trace Contaminant Control↗
NASA NTRS1973

Instrumentation for one-way satellite PTTI applications

A review of general principles and operational procedures illustrates how the typical passive user and omni receiving antenna can recover Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) information from a low altitude navigation satellite system for clock calibration and synchronization. Detailed discussions of concepts and theory of the receiver design are presented. The importance of RF correlation of the received and local PN encoded sequences is emphasized as a means of reducing delay uncertainties of the instrumentation to values compatible with nanosecond to submicrosecond PTTI objectives. Two receiver configurations were fabricated for use in satellite-to-laboratory experiments. In one receiver the delay-locked loop for PN signals synchronization used a dithered amplitude detection process while the second receiver used a complex sums phase detection method for measurement of delay error. The necessity for compensation of Doppler shift is discussed. Differences in theoretical signal acquisition and tracking performance of the design concepts are noted.

Osborne, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

C-14 content of ten meteorites measured by tandem accelerator mass spectrometry

Measurements of C-14 in three North American and seven Antarctic meteorites show in most cases that this cosmogenic isotope, which is tightly bound, was separated from absorbed atmospheric radiocarbon by stepwise heating extractions. The present upper limit to age determination by the accelerator method varies from 50,000 to 70,000 years, depending on the mass and carbon content of the sample. The natural limit caused by cosmic ray production of C-14 in silicate rocks at 2000 m elevation is estimated to be 55,000 + or - 5000 years. An estimation is also made of the 'weathering ages' of the Antarctic meteorites from the specific activity of loosely bound CO2 which is thought to be absorbed from the terrestrial atmosphere. Accelerator measurements are found to agree with previous low level counting measurements, but are more sensitive and precise.

Brown, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Control circuitry using electronic emulation of a synchro signal for accurate control of position and rate of rotation for shafts

The invention disclosed is a digital circuit which emulates a synchro signal in a synchro-resolver follower system for precise control of shaft position and rotation at very low rotational rates. The invention replaces the synchro and drive motor in a synchro-resolver follower system with a digital and analog synchro emulation circuit for generating the resolver control signal. The synchro emulation circuit includes amplitude modulation means to provide relatively high frequency resolver excitation signals for accurate resolver response even with very low shaft rotation rates.

Howard, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precise Countersinking Tool

Tool countersinks holes precisely with only portable drill; does not require costly machine tool. Replaceable pilot stub aligns axis of tool with centerline of hole. Ensures precise cut even with imprecise drill. Designed for relatively low cutting speeds.

Jenkins, Eric S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sinterless contacts to shallow junction InP solar cells

In the past, the achievement of good electrical contact to InP has inevitably been accompanied by mechanical degradation of the InP itself. Most contact systems require heat treatment after metal deposition that results in the dissolution of substantial amounts of InP into the metallization. Devices such as the solar cell, where shallow junctions are the rule, can be severely degraded if the damage to the semiconductor substrate is not precisely controlled. Two contact systems are described that provide low contact resistance to InP solar cells that do not require subjecting the current carrying metallization to a post deposition sintering process. It is shown that these two systems, one nickel based and the other silver based, provide contact resistivity values in the low 10(exp -6) ohm sq cm range, as fabricated, without the need for sintering.

Weizer, V. G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global and regional kinematics with GPS

The inherent precision of the doubly differenced phase measurement and the low cost of instrumentation made GPS the space geodetic technique of choice for regional surveys as soon as the constellation reached acceptable geometry in the area of interest: 1985 in western North America, the early 1990's in most of the world. Instrument and site-related errors for horizontal positioning are usually less than 3 mm, so that the dominant source of error is uncertainty in the reference frame defined by the satellites orbits and the tracking stations used to determine them. Prior to about 1992, when the tracking network for most experiments was globally sparse, the number of fiducial sites or the level at which they could be tied to an SLR or VLBI reference frame usually, set the accuracy limit. Recently, with a global network of over 30 stations, the limit is set more often by deficiencies in models for non-gravitational forces acting on the satellites. For regional networks in the northern hemisphere, reference frame errors are currently about 3 parts per billion (ppb) in horizontal position, allowing centimeter-level accuracies over intercontinental distances and less than 1 mm for a 100 km baseline. The accuracy of GPS measurements for monitoring height variations is generally 2-3 times worse than for horizontal motions. As for VLBI, the primary source of error is unmodeled fluctuations in atmospheric water vapor, but both reference frame uncertainties and some instrument errors are more serious for vertical than horizontal measurements. Under good conditions, daily repeatabilities at the level of 10 mm rms were achieved. This paper will summarize the current accuracy of GPS measurements and their implication for the use of SLR to study regional kinematics.

King, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

[Research Award providing funds for a tracking video camera]

The award provided funds for a tracking video camera. The camera has been installed and the system calibrated. It has enabled us to follow in real time the tracks of individual wood ants (Formica rufa) within a 3m square arena as they navigate singly in-doors guided by visual cues. To date we have been using the system on two projects. The first is an analysis of the navigational strategies that ants use when guided by an extended landmark (a low wall) to a feeding site. After a brief training period, ants are able to keep a defined distance and angle from the wall, using their memory of the wall's height on the retina as a controlling parameter. By training with walls of one height and length and testing with walls of different heights and lengths, we can show that ants adjust their distance from the wall so as to keep the wall at the height that they learned during training. Thus, their distance from the base of a tall wall is further than it is from the training wall, and the distance is shorter when the wall is low. The stopping point of the trajectory is defined precisely by the angle that the far end of the wall makes with the trajectory. Thus, ants walk further if the wall is extended in length and not so far if the wall is shortened. These experiments represent the first case in which the controlling parameters of an extended trajectory can be defined with some certainty. It raises many questions for future research that we are now pursuing.

Collett, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2001

Three Dimensional Cross-Sectional Properties From Bone Densitometry

Bone densitometry has previously been used to obtain cross-sectional properties of bone in a single scan plane. Using three non-coplanar scans, we have extended the method to obtain the principal area Moments of inertia and orientations of the principal axes at each cross-section along the length of the scan. Various 5 aluminum phantoms were used to examine scanner characteristics to develop the highest accuracy possible for in vitro non-invasive analysis of mass distribution. Factors considered included X-ray photon energy, initial scan orientation, the included angle of the 3 scans, and Imin/Imax ratios. Principal moments of inertia were accurate to within 3.1% and principal angles were within 1 deg. of the expected value for phantoms scanned with included angles of 60 deg. and 90 deg. at the higher X-ray photon energy. Low standard deviations in error also 10 indicate high precision of calculated measurements with these included angles. Accuracy and precision decreased slightly when the included angle was reduced to 30 deg. The method was then successfully applied to a pair of excised cadaveric tibiae. The accuracy and insensitivity of the algorithms to cross-sectional shape and changing isotropy (Imin/Imax) values when various included angles are used make this technique viable for future in vivo studies.

Cleek, Tammy M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Validation of GLAS Range Measurement over Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is Earth's first polar-orbiting satellite laser altimeter. Its primary purpose is to measure ice sheet elevation change, with a scientific requirement of detecting changes as low as 1.5 centimeters per year. This goal requires precise calibration and validation of the instrument. One approach for validating the GLAS range measurement involves comparison with a land reference target. Dry salt lakes are ideal for this purpose since they are large, stable, easily surveyed using kinematic GPS, and have albedos similar to that of ice. We selected the largest dry salt lake in the world, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, as a reference target for GLAS. In September 2002 we surveyed a 54 x 45 kilometer area of the salar with car-mounted kinematic GPS, using the data to construct a DEM of the surface. To date there have been six ICESat passes across our survey area, along two intersecting tracks. The first two passes occurred during "Laser 2A" operation (September to November 2003), the second two during "Laser 2B" operation (February to March 2004), and the final two during "Laser 2C" (June to July 2004). We compare GLAS elevations from all six passes with the salar de Uyuni DEM, showing how differing conditions between passes affected the performance of the GLAS instrument and providing an estimate of the relative and absolute accuracy of the range measurement. To check our results, we also compare the GLAS elevations along the same tracks with the mean sea-surface derived from TOPEX over the ocean on either side of South America.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Commercial-Off-The-Shelf Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) Flow-Measurement Probes Fabricated And Assembled

As an alternative to conventional tubing instrumentation for measuring airflow, designers and technicians at the NASA Glenn Research Center have been fabricating packaging components and assembling a set of unique probes using commercial-off-the-shelf microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) integrated circuits (computer chips). Using MEMS as an alternative has some compelling advantages over standard measurement devices. Sensor technologies have matured through high-production usage in industries such as automotive and aircraft manufacturers. Currently, MEMS are the choice in applications such as tire pressure monitors, altimeters, pneumatic controls, cable leak detectors, and consumer appliances. Conventional instrumentation uses tubing buried in the model aerodynamic surfaces or wind tunnel walls. The measurements are made when pressure is introduced at the tube opening. The pressure then must travel the tubing for lengths ranging from 20 to hundreds of feet before reaching an electronic signal conditioner. This condition causes a considerable amount of damping and requires measurements to be made only after the test rig has reached steady-state operation. The electronic MEMS pressure sensor is able to take readings continuously under dynamic states in nearly real time. The use of stainless steel tubing for pressure measurements requires many tubes to be cleaned, cut to length, carefully installed, and delicately deburred and spliced for use. A cluster of a few hundred 1/16-in.- (0.0625-in.-) diameter tubes (not uncommon in research testing facilities) can be several inches in diameter and may weigh enough to require two men to handle. Replacing hard tubing with electronic chips can eliminate much of the bulk. Each sensor would fit on the tip of the 1/16-in. tubing with room to spare. The P592 piezoresistive silicon pressure sensor (Lucas NovaSensor, Fremont, CA) was chosen for this project because of its cost, availability, and tolerance to extreme ambient conditions. The chip is 1 mm square by 0.6 mm thick (0.039 by 0.023 in.) with 0.12-mm (0.005-in.) wire connection tabs. Three MEMS chips were used to build the first type of flow-angularity probe. This MEMS probe will be demonstrated as an alternative to a standard tube type "Cobra Probe" now used routinely in wind tunnel and aeronautical hardware applications. The response time and accuracy would allow the probe to be translated on an actuator across a flow field, yielding precision dynamic measurements not possible with conventional instrumentation. The low profile, the minimal power requirement, the rugged construction, and the moderate cost all contribute to making MEMS sensors the enticing choice instrument in future research measurement needs. The MEMS probe efforts are a continuation of work initiated by Brian Willis, without whose foresight and efforts this project would never have been realized. This task was funded through cooperation with the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Redding, Chip↗
NASA NTRS2006

Discharge Hollow Cathode and Extraction Grid Analysis for the MiXI Ion Thruster

Miniature ion thrusters are well-suited future space missions such as Terrestrial Planet Finder - Interferometer (TPF-I), where high efficiency thrusters using non-contaminating noble gas propellant are desirable. Transient dynamic and orbital analyses have shown that the low-noise, continuous thrust of the Miniature Xenon Ion (MiXI) thruster is desirable for TPF-I formation rotation maneuvers when compared with other thruster options [1], [2]. The 3cm diameter MiXI thruster, Figure 1, was originally designed using experimental methods and is capable of high Isp (> 3,000 sec), propellant efficiency > 80%, and thrust from <0.1 mN to >1.5 mN [3]. The MiXI thruster must demonstrate high levels of thrust resolution and a low minimum impulse bit to ensure it meets the precision formation flying needs of missions such as TPF-I. A novel concept for controlling the ion extraction voltages yields the necessary thrust characteristics for the MiXI thruster. Experiments verify these techniques and two dimensional computational models show that such techniques should have minimal effect on the lifetime of the thruster. During this effort, the MiXI thruster incorporates, for the first time, flight like hollow cathodes for both the discharge chamber and beam neutralization.

ions↗
NASA NTRS2010

Current Trends in Satellite Laser Ranging

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) techniques are used to accurately measure the distance from ground stations to retroreflectors on satellites and the moon. SLR is one of the fundamental techniques that define the international Terrestrial Reference Frame (iTRF), which is the basis upon which we measure many aspects of global change over space, time, and evolving technology. It is one of the fundamental techniques that define at a level of precision of a few mm the origin and scale of the ITRF. Laser Ranging provides precision orbit determination and instrument calibration/validation for satellite-borne altimeters for the better understanding of sea level change, ocean dynamics, ice budget, and terrestrial topography. Laser ranging is also a tool to study the dynamics of the Moon and fundamental constants. Many of the GNSS satellites now carry retro-reflectors for improved orbit determination, harmonization of reference frames, and in-orbit co-location and system performance validation. The GNSS Constellations will be the means of making the reference frame available to worldwide users. Data and products from these measurements support key aspects of the GEOSS 10-Year implementation Plan adopted on February 16, 2005, The ITRF has been identified as a key contribution of the JAG to GEOSS and the ILRS makes a major contribution for its development since its foundation. The ILRS delivers weekly additional realizations that are accumulated sequentially to extend the ITRF and the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) series with a daily resolution. Additional products are currently under development such as precise orbits of satellites, EOP with daily availability, low-degree gravitational harmonics for studies of Earth dynamics and kinematics, etc. SLR technology continues to evolve toward the next generation laser ranging systems as programmatic requirements become more stringent. Ranging accuracy is improving as higher repetition rate, narrower pulse lasers and faster detectors are implemented. Automation and pass interleaving at some stations is already expanding temporal coverage. Web-based safety keys are allowing the SLR network stations to range to optically vulnerable satellites. Some stations are experimenting with two-wavelength operation as a means of better understanding the atmospheric refraction and with very low power laser to improve eye-safety conditions. New retroreflector designs are improving the signal link and enable daylight ranging. Dramatic improvements have also been made with lunar ranging with the new APOLLO Site in New ?Mexico, USA and the upgraded lunar station "MEO" in Grasse,

Pearlman, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Miniature Inchworm Actuators Fabricated by Use of LIGA

Miniature inchworm actuators that would have relatively simple designs have been proposed for applications in which there are requirements for displacements of the order of microns or tens of microns and for the ability to hold their positions when electric power is not applied. The proposed actuators would be members of the class of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), but would be designed and fabricated following an approach that is somewhat unusual for MEMS. Like other MEMS actuators, the proposed inchworm actuators could utilize thermoplastic, bimetallic, shape-memory-alloy, or piezoelectric actuation principles. The figure depicts a piezoelectric inchworm actuator according to the proposal. As in other inchworm actuators, linear motion of an extensible member would be achieved by lengthening and shortening the extensible member in synchronism with alternately clamping and releasing one and then the other end of the member. In this case, the moving member would be the middle one; the member would be piezoelectric and would be shortened by applying a voltage to it. The two outer members would also be piezoelectric; the release of the clamps on the upper or lower end would be achieved by applying a voltage to the electrodes on the upper or lower ends, respectively, of these members. Usually, MEMS actuators cannot be fabricated directly on the side walls of silicon wafers, yet the geometry of this actuator necessitates such fabrication. The solution, according to the proposal, would be to use the microfabrication technique known by the German acronym LIGA - "lithographie, galvanoformung, abformung," which means lithography, electroforming, molding. LIGA involves x-ray lithography of a polymer film followed by selective removal of material to form a three-dimensional pattern from which a mold is made. Among the advantages of LIGA for this purpose are that it is applicable to a broad range of materials, can be used to implement a variety of designs, including those of structures >1 mm high, affords submicron precision, and is amenable to mass production at relatively low unit cost. Fabrication of the proposed actuators would involve some technological risks - in particular, in the integration of electrode connection lines and placement of actuator elements. It will also be necessary to perform an intensive study of the feasibility of growing piezoelectric crystals onto LIGA molds.

Yang, Eui-Hyeok↗
NASA NTRS2015

Testing of an Arcjet Thruster with Capability of Direct-Drive Operation

Electric thrusters typically require a power processing unit (PPU) to convert the spacecraft provided power to the voltage-current that a thruster needs for operation. Testing has been initiated to study whether an arcjet thruster can be operated directly with the power produced by solar arrays without any additional conversion. Elimination of the PPU significantly reduces system-level complexity of the propulsion system, and lowers developmental cost and risk. The work aims to identify and address technical questions related to power conditioning and noise suppression in the system and heating of the thruster in long-duration operation. The apparatus under investigation has a target power level from 400-1,000 W. However, the proposed direct-drive arcjet is potentially a highly scalable concept, applicable to solar-electric spacecraft with up to 100's of kW and beyond. A direct-drive electric propulsion system would be comprised of a thruster that operates with the power supplied directly from the power source (typically solar arrays) with no further power conditioning needed between those two components. Arcjet thrusters are electric propulsion devices, with the power supplied as a high current at low voltage; of all the different types of electric thruster, they are best suited for direct drive from solar arrays. One advantage of an arcjet over Hall or gridded ion thrusters is that for comparable power the arcjet is a much smaller device and can provide more thrust and orders of magnitude higher thrust density (approximately 1-10 N/sq m), albeit at lower I(sub sp) (approximately 800-1000 s). In addition, arcjets are capable of operating on a wide range of propellant options, having been demonstrated on H2, ammonia, N2, Ar, Kr, Xe, while present SOA Hall and ion thrusters are primarily limited to Xe propellant. Direct-drive is often discussed in terms of Hall thrusters, but they require 250-300 V for operation, which is difficult even with high-voltage solar arrays. The arcjet requires under 100 V, which is more in-line with what is easily possible with a solar array. Direct-drive of an electric propulsion system confers the advantage of reducing or eliminating the power processing unit (PPU) that is typically needed to convert the spacecraft-provided power to the voltage and current needed for thruster operation. Since the PPU is typically the most expensive piece of an electric thruster system, from both a fabrication and qualification standpoint, its elimination offers the potential for major reductions in system cost and risk. The design of the arcjet built for this effort was based on previous low power (1 kW class) arcjets. It has a precision machined 99.95% pure tungsten anode which also serves as the nozzle. The anode constrictor region is 1 mm (0.040-in) diameter and 1 mm (0.040-in) long. The cathode is a tungsten welding electrode doped with LaO2; its tip was precision ground to a 30◦ angle ending in a blunt end. The two electrodes are separated by a boron-nitride insulator which also serves as the propellant injection manifold; it ends in six small holes which introduce the propellant gas in the diverging section of the nozzle, directly adjacent to the cathode. The electrodes and insulator are housed in a stainless-steel outer-body, with a Macor insulator at the mid-plane to provide thermal isolation between the front and back halves of the device. The gas seals were made using Grafoil gaskets. Figure 1A shows the assembled thruster in the vacuum chamber; figure 1B shows the thruster in operation on argon at a flow rate of 676 sccm (20 mg/s). Initial testing was conducted in a 3.5-ft diameter vacuum chamber; the ultimate pressure reached during quasi-steady operation of the thruster was about 330 millitorr. The thruster was powered with a high-current, 0-100A, 15 kW power supply. The discharge was initiated with a high-voltage (approximately 10 kV) spark initiator that was isolated from the supply by a stack of diodes. The testing indicated that an operating point exists within the I-V characteristics that is compatible with direct-drive solar-electric operation; for a flow rate of 20 mg/s (argon) the arc could be sustained at a voltage of about 20 V and a current of 25 A (500W).

Martin, Adam K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Control Circuitry Using Electronic Emulation of a Synchro Signal for Accurate Control of Position and Rate of Rotation for Shafts

The invention herein disclosed is a digital circuit which emulates a synchro signal in a synchro-resolver follower system for precise control of shaft position and rotation at very low rotational rates. The subject invention replaces the synchro and drive motor in a synchroresolver follower system with a digital and analog synchro emulation circuit for generating the resolver control signal. The synchro emulation circuit includes amplitude modulation means to provide relatively high frequency resolver excitation signals for accurate resolver response even with very low shaft rotation rates.

Howard, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Direct Drive Solar-Powered Arcjet Thruster

Electric thrusters typically require a power processing unit (PPU) to convert the spacecraft-provided power to the voltage and current that a thruster needs for operation. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has initiated fundamental studies on whether an arcjet thruster can be operated directly with the power produced by solar arrays without any additional conversion. Elimination of the PPU significantly reduces system-level complexity of the propulsion system, and lowers developmental cost and risk. The proposed work will aim to refine the proof-of-concept presently being assembled and begin to identify and address technical questions related to power conditioning and noise suppression in the system, and heating of the thruster in long-duration operation. The apparatus proposed for investigation has a target power level of 400 to 1,000 W. The proposed direct-drive arcjet is potentially a highly scalable concept, applicable to spacecraft with up to hundreds of kilowatts and beyond. The design of the arcjet built for this effort was based on previous low power (1 kW class) arcjets.1-3 It has a precision machined 99.95% pure tungsten anode that also serves as the nozzle with a 0.040-in- (1-mm-) diameter, 0.040-in-long constrictor region. An additional anode with a 0.020-in- (0.5-mm-) diameter, 0.020-inlong constrictor region was purchased, but has not yet been used. The cathode is a 0.125-in-diameter tungsten welding electrode doped with lanthum-oxygen; its tip was precision ground to a 308deg angle and terminates in a blunt end. The two electrodes are separated by a boron-nitride insulator that also serves as the propellant manifold; it ends in six small holes which introduce the propellant gas in the diverging section of the nozzle, directly adjacent to the cathode. The electrodes and insulator are housed in a stainless-steel outer body, with a Macor insulator at the mid-plane to provide thermal isolation between the front and back halves of the device. The gas seals were made using Grafoil gaskets. Figure 1(a) shows the assembled thruster; figure 1(b) shows the thruster in the vacuum chamber with electrical and propellant connections.

Polzin, Kurt↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗