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NASA NTRS2015

Cascade Distillation System Design for Safety and Mission Assurance

Per the NASA Human Health, Life Support and Habitation System Technology Area 06 report "crewed missions venturing beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) will require technologies with improved reliability, reduced mass, self-sufficiency, and minimal logistical needs as an emergency or quick-return option will not be feasible." To meet this need, the development team of the second generation Cascade Distillation System (CDS 2.0) opted a development approach that explicitely incorporate consideration of safety, mission assurance, and autonomy. The CDS 2.0 prelimnary design focused on establishing a functional baseline that meets the CDS core capabilities and performance. The critical design phase is now focused on incorporating features through a deliberative process of establishing the systems failure modes and effects, identifying mitigative strategies, and evaluating the merit of the proposed actions through analysis and test. This paper details results of this effort on the CDS 2.0 design.

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cascade Distillation System Design for Safety and Mission Assurance

Per the NASA Human Health, Life Support and Habitation System Technology Area 06 report "crewed missions venturing beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) will require technologies with improved reliability, reduced mass, self-sufficiency, and minimal logistical needs as an emergency or quick-return option will not be feasible".1 To meet this need, the development team of the second generation Cascade Distillation System (CDS 2.0) chose a development approach that explicitly incorporate consideration of safety, mission assurance, and autonomy. The CDS 2.0 preliminary design focused on establishing a functional baseline that meets the CDS core capabilities and performance. The critical design phase is now focused on incorporating features through a deliberative process of establishing the systems failure modes and effects, identifying mitigation strategies, and evaluating the merit of the proposed actions through analysis and test. This paper details results of this effort on the CDS 2.0 design.

Sarguisingh, Miriam↗

NASA NTRS2015

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Analysis of Exploration Capability Gaps for Future Habitation Systems to Inform Risk Assessment and Development Priorities

Within NASA, exploration capability gaps are defined as the difference between the current state-of-the-art in capabilities and the anticipated needs of future human spaceflight architectures. As NASA and its partners’ capabilities for human exploration of deep space continue to mature, it is necessary to understand the capability gaps that require closure to support future habitation systems, such as the Lunar Surface Habitat (SH) and Mars Transit Habitat (TH) currently in concept development. This paper will identify high-priority capability gaps for exploration habitation and show potential options for gap closure through investment in technology, development, and testing. High-priority capability gaps are divided into the following general taxonomy areas: human health/life support/habitation systems, flight computing and avionics, power and energy storage, communications and navigation, thermal management systems, human exploration destination systems, autonomous systems, sensors and instruments, GNC (guidance, navigation, and control), robotic systems, ground and uncrewed surface systems, and materials/structures/mechanical systems/manufacturing. In the gap identification process, teams of discipline experts from across NASA reviewed the latest habitation architecture needs against current capabilities to understand where gaps may exist. The results of the assessment established a basis for the current state-of-the-art within each gap and identified the capability needs of the proposed exploration missions the gap links to. An assessment of how each test platform (e.g., Ground, International Space Station (ISS), Commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Destinations, Gateway) may be leveraged to mature capabilities and potentially provide a route to gap closure will be discussed. The notional timeline for gap closure to support reference missions and impacts to overall schedule are also assessed where appropriate. Based on the capability gap analysis described above, the paper summarizes important technology maturation considerations for human exploration architectures, with a focus on the Mars TH. The previously published NASA habitation ground rules and assumptions document is used as the basis to classify gaps as enabling, enhancing, or “push” opportunities for a particular architecture. Stepwise technology maturation plans/considerations are presented for some selected critical gaps. Overall, the analysis in this paper is intended to help influence development priorities for habitation systems, where high-priority, critical gaps are those currently assessed as having a low probability of closure by the anticipated need date. Capability gap analysis also informs the risk register for exploration habitation systems and mitigation strategies to ensure readiness of key technologies to support future mission timelines. Linkage between capability gaps for Moon and Mars is noted, as closure of a gap at a Lunar destination may subsequently enable or enhance Mars TH architectures.

technology development↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Analysis of Exploration Capability Gaps for Future Habitation Systems to Inform Risk Assessment and Development Priorities

technology development↗

NASA NTRS2024

Determining Simulation Fidelity Necessary for Evaluating Onboard Vehicle Capabilities and Crew Roles on Long Duration Exploration Missions Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

Identification of onboard vehicle capabilities and crew roles and responsibilities necessary for achieving effective human-systems collaboration will require iterative cycles of concept development and empirical evaluation of human performance in complex operations. This report presents the results of an effort to lay the groundwork for determining the level of fidelity of simulated environments most suitable for validating concepts and evaluating implementations of a new Human Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that will support the flight crew on long duration exploration missions beyond low-Earth orbit. To do that, we conducted a literature review on simulation fidelity and surveyed simulation capabilities inside and outside of NASA used in NASA-sponsored research. We also analyzed two International Space Station (ISS) vehicle anomalies to identify the types of scenario events and crew activities that may need to be simulated. Our survey findings reveal that most NASA simulation facilities are designed to achieve high physical fidelity while HSIA risk mitigation requires simulation emphasizing task and functional fidelity aspects. A trade analysis shows that, for standard and requirement development, evaluation conducted using synthetic task environments with inexperienced participants will support testing a wide variety of conditions and yield findings robust enough to be generalized to a wide variety of designs on which developed standards and requirements might be levied while allowing human performance standard measures to be collected using consistent methods across tasks and conditions. For technology/tool development, because findings will only need to be generalized to the actual target environment in which the technology/tool will be used, it is more suitable to evaluate the prototypes in a scaled world that preserves functional relationships present in the actual target environment with intended user populations. To wrap up, we give an overview of a well-known synthetical task environment in the space domain and discuss what it takes to construct a synthetic task environment.

simulation fidelity↗

NASA NTRS1994

S-band and Ku-band return service interference between TDRSS users

The Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) return service performance can be degraded by interference from another user when two or more spacecraft communicate with the same Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) at the same time. This paper describes the S-band and Ku-band return service self interference environment expected in the 1996 - 2010 timeframe and shows the self-interference expected for selected TDRSS users based on Communications Link Analysis and Simulation System (CLASS) Automated Conflict Resolution System (ACRS) and Interference Monitor (IM) tools. The results show: which user links are susceptible to interference from other users, the interference statistics, and whether or not interference can be avoided with appropriate interference mitigation techniques such as scheduling, cross-polarization, or Pseudo random Noise (PN) spreading. The analysis results enable Space Network (SN) managers to determine the impacts of self-interference on the TDRSS service availability. They also enable project offices to determine whether they should select return service communications parameters, such as polarization and PN spreading, to minimize the probability of being impacted by self-interference; try to schedule TDRSS support around other user spacecraft communications schedules; or accept communication outages due to self-interference.

Harrell, Linda↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: MagLim++ Lens Sample Selection and Measurements of Galaxy Clustering

Galaxy clustering is a sensitive probe of the expansion history and growth of structure of the universe, and key degeneracies can be broken by combining these data with measurements of cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing (a so-called 3$\times$2pt analysis). The largest and least biased statistical samples of galaxies for use in clustering analyses can be collected photometrically through large imaging surveys. However, selecting clean photometric subsamples for cosmology are crucial for avoiding contamination that can bias cosmological constraints. Here we present the MagLim++ galaxy sample, selected to optimize for cosmological constraining power and incorporating an array of novel quality cuts to identify and remove residual contamination. This sample comes from the full six years of observations from the Dark Energy Survey. We present measurements of the two-point angular clustering ($w(θ)$) of 9,186,205 galaxies distributed over 4031 sq. degrees and in six tomographic redshift bins centered at $\bar{z}\approx$ [0.31, 0.44, 0.62, 0.78, 0.90, 1.01]. These measurements are used as part of the 3$\times$2pt and other DES Y6 legacy cosmological analyses in companion works. We describe the battery of null tests and mitigation schemes implemented to address observational, astrophysical, and methodological systematics in the analysis. The resulting $w(θ)$ measurements have a S/N = 149 (90.2 for linear scales only), which we use to place galaxy-clustering-only constraints on the matter density of the Universe, $Ω_m=0.311^{+0.023}_{-0.035}$, and amplitude of galaxy clustering in each redshift bin, $b_iσ_8=[1.16^{+0.04}_{-0.06},\ 1.40^{+0.04}_{-0.06},\ 1.57^{+0.04}_{-0.06},\ 1.59^{+0.04}_{-0.05},\ 1.50^{+0.04}_{-0.05},\ 1.74^{+0.06}_{-0.08}]$.

Weaverdyck, N. [BCCP, Berkeley; UC, Berkeley; LBL,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced MPM framework with multipatch isogeometric analysis for geotechnical applications

Achieving stable stress solutions at large strains using the Material Point Method (MPM) is challenging due to the accumulation of errors associated with geometry discretization, cell-crossing noise, and volumetric locking. Several simplified attempts exist in the literature to mitigate these errors, including higher-order frameworks. However, the stability of the MPM solution in such frameworks has been limited to simple geometries and the single-phase formulation (i.e., neglecting pore fluid). Although never explored, multipatch isogeometric analysis offers desirable qualities to simulate complex geometries while mitigating errors in the MPM. The degree of required high-order spatial integration has also never been investigated to infer a minimum limit for the stability of the stress solution in MPM. This paper presents a general-purpose numerical framework for simulating stable stresses in porous media, capturing both near incompressibility and multiphase interactions. First, the numerical framework is presented considering Non-Uniform Rational B-splines (NURBS) to perform isogeometric analysis (IGA) in MPM. Additionally, a volumetric strain smoothing algorithm is used to alleviate errors associated with volumetric locking. Second, the manifestation of cell-crossing errors is assessed via a series of problems with orders ranging from linear to cubic interpolation functions. Third, the use of NURBS is investigated and verified for problems with circular geometries. Finally, multipatch analysis is deployed to simulate plane strain and 3D penetration in soils, considering nearly incompressible elastoplastic (total stress) analysis and fully-coupled hydro-mechanical (effective stress) analysis. The stability of the solution is also analyzed for different constitutive models. From the results, it can be concluded that the framework using cubic interpolation functions with strain smoothing is the most convenient, presenting stable stress solutions for a broad range of multiphase geotechnical applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using Lunar Module Shadows To Scale the Effects of Rocket Exhaust Plumes

Excavating granular materials beneath a vertical jet of gas involves several physical mechanisms. These occur, for example, beneath the exhaust plume of a rocket landing on the soil of the Moon or Mars. We performed a series of experiments and simulations (Figure 1) to provide a detailed view of the complex gas-soil interactions. Measurements taken from the Apollo lunar landing videos (Figure 2) and from photographs of the resulting terrain helped demonstrate how the interactions extrapolate into the lunar environment. It is important to understand these processes at a fundamental level to support the ongoing design of higher fidelity numerical simulations and larger-scale experiments. These are needed to enable future lunar exploration wherein multiple hardware assets will be placed on the Moon within short distances of one another. The high-velocity spray of soil from the landing spacecraft must be accurately predicted and controlled or it could erode the surfaces of nearby hardware. This analysis indicated that the lunar dust is ejected at an angle of less than 3 degrees above the surface, the results of which can be mitigated by a modest berm of lunar soil. These results assume that future lunar landers will use a single engine. The analysis would need to be adjusted for a multiengine lander. Figure 3 is a detailed schematic of the Lunar Module camera calibration math model. In this chart, formulas relating the known quantities, such as sun angle and Lunar Module dimensions, to the unknown quantities are depicted. The camera angle PSI is determined by measurement of the imaged aspect ratio of a crater, where the crater is assumed to be circular. The final solution is the determination of the camera calibration factor, alpha. Figure 4 is a detailed schematic of the dust angle math model, which again relates known to unknown parameters. The known parameters now include the camera calibration factor and Lunar Module dimensions. The final computation is the ejected dust angle, as a function of Lunar Module altitude.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IAC Abstract for Orbital Debris Phase II Report

Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.

orbital debris↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aeroelastic Ground Wind Loads Analysis Tool for Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicles are exposed to ground winds during rollout and on the launch pad that can induce static and dynamic loads. Of particular concern are the dynamic loads caused by vortex shedding from nearly-cylindrical structures. When the frequency of vortex shedding nears that of a lowly-damped structural mode, the dynamic loads can be more than an order of magnitude greater than mean drag loads. Accurately predicting vehicle response to vortex shedding during the design and analysis cycles is difficult and typically exceeds the practical capabilities of modern computational fluid dynamics codes. Therefore, mitigating the ground wind loads risk typically requires wind-tunnel tests of dynamically-scaled models that are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In recent years, NASA has developed a ground wind loads analysis tool for launch vehicles to fill this analytical capability gap in order to provide predictions for prelaunch static and dynamic loads. This paper includes a background of the ground wind loads problem and the current state-of-the-art. It then discusses the history and significance of the analysis tool and the methodology used to develop it. Finally, results of the analysis tool are compared to wind-tunnel and full-scale data of various geometries and Reynolds numbers.

Ivanco, Thomas G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Integrated Examination of AMSR2 Products over Ocean

Integrated processing and analysis are presented for oceanic retrievals of precipitation, sea ice concentration, columnar water vapor and cloud water, sea surface temperature, and near surface wind from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer-2 (AMSR2) sensor. By developing a common algorithmic framework and permitting iterative interaction between historically separate science algorithms, ambiguous and contradictory retrieval results are minimized. The integration also serves to improve each algorithm individually, decreasing reliance on ancillary datasets. Case studies are presented that exemplify both ongoing challenges for these retrievals and potential research uses of such an integrated satellite product. Two cases are presented each for precipitation at high latitudes and marginal sea ice detection, with analysis supplemented by satellite data from CloudSat profiles and Himawari-8 imagery. Detection and retrieval of snowfall remains a challenge, while light rainfall detection can be aided by a variational algorithm. Sea ice concentrations below 20% cause disagreements, but the algorithms otherwise agree well on the sea ice edge. Potential mitigation strategies for ambiguous areas of light rainfall and marginal sea ice are discussed. The analysis demonstrates potential avenues for future algorithm development, but also some physical limitations of remote sensing with the AMSR2 frequencies.

variational methods↗

NASA NTRS2012

Astronaut Biography Project for Countermeasures of Human Behavior and Performance Risks in Long Duration Space Flights

This final report will summarize research that relates to human behavioral health and performance of astronauts and flight controllers. Literature reviews, data archival analyses, and ground-based analog studies that center around the risk of human space flight are being used to help mitigate human behavior and performance risks from long duration space flights. A qualitative analysis of an astronaut autobiography was completed. An analysis was also conducted on exercise countermeasure publications to show the positive affects of exercise on the risks targeted in this study. The three main risks targeted in this study are risks of behavioral and psychiatric disorders, risks of performance errors due to poor team performance, cohesion, and composition, and risks of performance errors due to sleep deprivation, circadian rhythm. These three risks focus on psychological and physiological aspects of astronauts who venture out into space on long duration space missions. The purpose of this research is to target these risks in order to help quantify, identify, and mature countermeasures and technologies required in preventing or mitigating adverse outcomes from exposure to the spaceflight environment

Banks, Akeem↗

NASA NTRS2012

Demystifying Kepler Data: A Primer for Systematic Artifact Mitigation

The Kepler spacecraft has collected data of high photometric precision and cadence almost continuously since operations began on 2009 May 2. Primarily designed to detect planetary transits and asteroseismological signals from solar-like stars, Kepler has provided high quality data for many areas of investigation. Unconditioned simple aperture time-series photometry are however affected by systematic structure. Examples of these systematics are differential velocity aberration, thermal gradients across the spacecraft, and pointing variations. While exhibiting some impact on Kepler's primary science, these systematics can critically handicap potentially ground-breaking scientific gains in other astrophysical areas, especially over long timescales greater than 10 days. As the data archive grows to provide light curves for 10(exp 5) stars of many years in length, Kepler will only fulfill its broad potential for stellar astrophysics if these systematics are understood and mitigated. Post-launch developments in the Kepler archive, data reduction pipeline and open source data analysis software have occurred to remove or reduce systematic artifacts. This paper provides a conceptual primer for users of the Kepler data archive to understand and recognize systematic artifacts within light curves and some methods for their removal. Specific examples of artifact mitigation are provided using data available within the archive. Through the methods defined here, the Kepler community will find a road map to maximizing the quality and employment of the Kepler legacy archive.

Kinemuchi, K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗