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Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Summary of Structural Material Modeling Development for the NEAMS Program in Fiscal Year 2020

This report summarizes work performed during Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Department of Energy?s Nuclear Engineering Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program for the Structural Materials and Chemistry Technical Area in the work package entitled "MS- 20IN050104 - Structural Materials - INL." The Structural Materials and Chemistry Technical Area is a relatively new component of the NEAMS program, and is currently focusing on developing simulation capabilities to support the deployment of nuclear energy in the areas of molten salt reactor chemistry, light water reactor (LWR) structural material degradation, and structural material behavior for advanced reactor applications. INL performed work for to advance capabilities for simulation of structural material behavior in both LWR and advanced reactor applications in the work described here.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

Demasi, J. T.↗

Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA-damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO and O. Additional environmental stressor systems like temperature (extreme heat or cold), metal toxicity, and other forms of radiation will increase the scale and testing range.

Developing↗

High speed turboprop aeroacoustic study (single rotation). Volume 1: Model development

A frequency-domain noncompact-source theory for the steady loading and volume-displacement (thickness) noise of high speed propellers has been developed and programmed. Both near field and far field effects have been considered. The code utilizes blade surface pressure distributions obtained from three-dimensional nonlinear aerodynamic flow field analysis programs as input for evaluating the steady loading noise. Simplified mathematical models of the velocity fields induced at the propeller disk by nearby wing and fuselage surfaces and by angle-of-attack operation have been developed to provide estimates of the unsteady loading imposed on the propeller by these potential field type interactions. These unsteady blade loadings have been coupled to a chordwise compact propeller unsteady loading noise model to provide predictions of unsteady loading noise caused by these installation effects. Finally, an analysis to estimate the corrections to be applied to the free-field noise predictions in order to arrive at the measurable fuselage sound pressure levels has been formulated and programmed. This analysis considers the effects of fuselage surface reflection and diffraction together with surface boundary layer refraction. The steady loading and thickness model and the unsteady loading model have been verified using NASA-supplied data for the SR-2 and SR-3 model propfans. In addition, the steady loading and thickness model has been compared with data from the SR-6 model propfan. These theoretical models have been employed in the evaluation of the SR-7 powered Gulfstream aircraft in terms of noise characteristics at representative takeoff, cruise, and approach operating conditions. In all cases, agreement between theory and experiment is encouraging.

Whitfield, C. E.↗

Cabin Atmosphere Monitoring System (CAMS), pre-prototype model development continuation

The development of the Cabin Atmosphere Monitoring System (CAMS) is described. Attention was directed toward improving stability and reliability of the design using flight application guidelines. Considerable effort was devoted to the development of a temperature-stable RF/DC generator used for excitation of the quadrupole mass filter. Minor design changes were made in the preprototype model. Specific gas measurement examples are included along with a discussion of the measurement rationale employed.

Bursack, W. W.↗

Charged Particle Environment Definition for NGST: Model Development

NGST will operate in a halo orbit about the L2 point, 1.5 million km from the Earth, where the spacecraft will periodically travel through the magnetotail region. There are a number of tools available to calculate the high energy, ionizing radiation particle environment from galactic cosmic rays and from solar disturbances. However, space environment tools are not generally available to provide assessments of charged particle environment and its variations in the solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetotail at L2 distances. An engineering-level phenomenology code (LRAD) was therefore developed to facilitate the definition of charged particle environments in the vicinity of the L2 point in support of the NGST program. LRAD contains models tied to satellite measurement data of the solar wind and magnetotail regions. The model provides particle flux and fluence calculations necessary to predict spacecraft charging conditions and the degradation of materials used in the construction of NGST. This paper describes the LRAD environment models for the deep magnetotail (XGSE < -100 Re) and solar wind, and presents predictions of the charged particle environment for NGST.

Blackwell, William C.↗

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A finite-element-based perturbation model for the rotordynamic analysis of shrouded pump impellers: Part 1: Model development and applications

This study concerns the rotor dynamic characteristics of fluid-encompassed rotors, with special emphasis on shrouded pump impellers. The core of the study is a versatile and categorically new finite-element-based perturbation model, which is based on a rigorous flow analysis and what we have generically termed the 'virtually' deformable finite-element approach. The model is first applied to the case of a smooth annular seal for verification purposes. The rotor excitation components, in this sample problem, give rise to a purely cylindrical, purely conical, and a simultaneous cylindrical/conical rotor whirl around the housing centerline. In all cases, the computed results are compared to existing experimental and analytical data involving the same seal geometry and operating conditions. Next, two labyrinth-seal configurations, which share the same tooth-to-tooth chamber geometry but differ in the total number of chambers, were investigated. The results, in this case, are compared to experimental measurements for both seal configurations. The focus is finally shifted to the shrouded-impeller problem, where the stability effects of the leakage flow in the shroud-to-housing secondary passage are investigated. To this end, the computational model is applied to a typical shrouded-impeller pump stage, fabricated and rotor dynamically tested by Sulzer Bros., and the results compared to those of a simplified 'bulk-flow' analysis and Sulzer Bros.' test data. In addition to assessing the computed rotor dynamic coefficients, the shrouded-impeller study also covers a controversial topic, namely that of the leakage-passage inlet swirl, which was previously cited as the origin of highly unconventional (resonance-like) trends of the fluid-exerted forces. In order to validate this claim, a 'microscopic' study of the fluid/shroud interaction mechanism is conducted, with the focus being on the structure of the perturbed flow field associated with the impeller whirl. The conclusions of this study were solidified by the outcome of a numerical-certainty exercise, where the grid dependency of the numerical results is objectively examined. The final phase of the shrouded-impeller investigation involves the validation of a built-in assumption, in all other perturbation models, whereby single-harmonic tangential distributions of all the flow thermophysical properties are imposed. The last phase of the investigation course is aimed at verifying the fine details of the perturbed flow field in light of recent set of detailed LDA measurements in a smooth annular seal. Grid dependency of the fluid-induced forces is also investigated, and specific recommendations are made.

Baskharone, Erian A.↗

M4SF-22LL010301062-Surface Complexation Database and Hybrid ML Model Development for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-22LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-22LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Atrial Model Development and Prototype Simulations; Final Report for CRADA No. TC02224.0

This project was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Amgen, Inc. ("Amgen"), to develop a capability to computationally evaluate the importance and roles of different ion channels in atrial fibrillation. The first phase of this collaboration was to implement the atrial model, run prototype simulations, and analyze the results. Two No-Cost Time Extension (NCTE) requests were executed for this project. The first NCTE was executed on April 1, 2016, and extended the CRADA project for an additional two months to allow enough time to complete the tasks and deliverables, due to a delay in the start of the project. A second NCTE was executed on June 28, 2016, extending the project by three months, through November 3, 2016, to allow enough time to complete the final tasks and deliverables as well as negotiate a CRADA extension. The actual duration of this project was fourteen months. Amgen was unable to obtain budget approval to extend the CRADA past November 3, 2016. All of the deliverables for this CRADA project were successfully completed according to schedule.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Model Development and Testing for THEMIS Controlled Mars Mosaics

As part of our work [1] to develop techniques and procedures to create regional and eventually global THEMIS mosaics of Mars, we are developing algorithms and software to photogrammetrically control THEMIS IR line scanner camera images. We have found from comparison of a limited number of images to MOLA digital image models (DIMs) [2] that the a priori geometry information (i.e. SPICE [3]) for THEMIS images generally allows their relative positions to be specified at the several pixel level (e.g. approx.5 to 13 pixels). However a need for controlled solutions to improve this geometry to the sub-pixel level still exists. Only with such solutions can seamless mosaics be obtained and likely distortion from spacecraft motion during image collection removed at such levels. Past experience has shown clearly that such mosaics are in heavy demand by users for operational and scientific use, and that they are needed over large areas or globally (as opposed to being available only on a limited basis via labor intensive custom mapping projects). Uses include spacecraft navigation, landing site planning and mapping, registration of multiple data types and image sets, registration of multispectral images, registration of images with topographic information, recovery of thermal properties, change detection searches, etc.

Archinal, B. A.↗

Topical Report on Water Balance Model Development and Initial Application

This topical report summarizes results from developing a generic dynamic water balance tool which can be used by coal-fired power plant operators to evaluate FGD water management strategies. EPRI is using a statistical software model created on the GoldSim platform and data from coal-fired energy plants to determine the fraction of power plant water needs that can be satisfied by electrodialysis reversal treatment and, correspondingly, the discharge volume and/or byproducts that still need to be managed. The generic model is designed to accept a number of easily obtainable process variables and generate probabilities of resultant water characteristics. The model is also constructed as a universal process flow; one that can be adjusted to accommodate most major components of an FGD blowdown handling system. The generic model is dynamic and utilizes user-inputted operational variation in water quality and quantity to best provide a probabilistic representation of potential performance outcomes. In order to account for complexities of water composition and treatment, a separate chemical modeling software is used to evaluate water chemistry and unit operation performance. The thermodynamic modeling software, OLI Studio, is employed to convert ion data from laboratory analyses into balanced molecular concentrations that are classified as dissolved and suspended solids. The dynamic water model is designed to import a total of 11 species commonly found in FGD blowdown water as molecular concentrations.Water management unit operations are used in the model and categorized by either physical unit operation blocks or chemical unit operations blocks. As the name implies, the physical water treatment blocks are unit operations that are exclusively physical changes to the system (e.g., separations and volume changes). The chemical water treatment blocks are unit operations where chemical changes occur and require the use of OLI Studio to characterize subsequent streams. Water and material balances from three unique coal-fired power plants were obtained and preliminary modeling on the dynamic water balance tool was performed using the extracted data from these power plants. These three power plants were chosen due to their unique configurations and water profiles that represented a variety of operational changes. Results from using the dynamic tool with the three plant configurations are presented and discussed in the context of the existing tool and planned future capabilities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Twist Model Development and Results From the Active Aeroelastic Wing F/A-18 Aircraft

Understanding the wing twist of the active aeroelastic wing F/A-18 aircraft is a fundamental research objective for the program and offers numerous benefits. In order to clearly understand the wing flexibility characteristics, a model was created to predict real-time wing twist. A reliable twist model allows the prediction of twist for flight simulation, provides insight into aircraft performance uncertainties, and assists with computational fluid dynamic and aeroelastic issues. The left wing of the aircraft was heavily instrumented during the first phase of the active aeroelastic wing program allowing deflection data collection. Traditional data processing steps were taken to reduce flight data, and twist predictions were made using linear regression techniques. The model predictions determined a consistent linear relationship between the measured twist and aircraft parameters, such as surface positions and aircraft state variables. Error in the original model was reduced in some cases by using a dynamic pressure-based assumption and by using neural networks. These techniques produced excellent predictions for flight between the standard test points and accounted for nonlinearities in the data. This report discusses data processing techniques and twist prediction validation, and provides illustrative and quantitative results.

Lizotte, Andrew↗

Twist Model Development and Results from the Active Aeroelastic Wing F/A-18 Aircraft

Understanding the wing twist of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F/A-18 aircraft is a fundamental research objective for the program and offers numerous benefits. In order to clearly understand the wing flexibility characteristics, a model was created to predict real-time wing twist. A reliable twist model allows the prediction of twist for flight simulation, provides insight into aircraft performance uncertainties, and assists with computational fluid dynamic and aeroelastic issues. The left wing of the aircraft was heavily instrumented during the first phase of the active aeroelastic wing program allowing deflection data collection. Traditional data processing steps were taken to reduce flight data, and twist predictions were made using linear regression techniques. The model predictions determined a consistent linear relationship between the measured twist and aircraft parameters, such as surface positions and aircraft state variables. Error in the original model was reduced in some cases by using a dynamic pressure-based assumption. This technique produced excellent predictions for flight between the standard test points and accounted for nonlinearities in the data. This report discusses data processing techniques and twist prediction validation, and provides illustrative and quantitative results.

Lizotte, Andrew M.↗