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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

[MODIS Investigation]

Our first activity is based on delivery of code to Bob Evans (University of Miami) for integration and eventual delivery to the MODIS Science Data Support Team. As we noted in our previous semi-annual report, coding required the development and analysis of an end-to-end model of fluorescence line height (FLH) errors and sensitivity. This model is described in a paper in press in Remote Sensing of the Environment. Once the code was delivered to Miami, we continue to use this error analysis to evaluate proposed changes in MODIS sensor specifications and performance. Simply evaluating such changes on a band by band basis may obscure the true impacts of changes in sensor performance that are manifested in the complete algorithm. This is especially true with FLH that is sensitive to band placement and width. The error model will be used by Howard Gordon (Miami) to evaluate the effects of absorbing aerosols on the FLH algorithm performance. Presently, FLH relies only on simple corrections for atmospheric effects (viewing geometry, Rayleigh scattering) without correcting for aerosols. Our analysis suggests that aerosols should have a small impact relative to changes in the quantum yield of fluorescence in phytoplankton. However, the effect of absorbing aerosol is a new process and will be evaluated by Gordon.

Abbott, Mark R.↗

Input sensitivity study of a stratospheric photochemistry model

A general technique for calculating the sensitivities, uncertainties and overall imprecision of a model to a set of input parameters is described and applied to the calculation of CFM (chlorofluoromethane) induced stratospheric ozone depletion. The input data set used is reaction rates and the technique highlights those that most need further study in the laboratory. The convolution of individual uncertainties to obtain an overall imprecision gives good agreement with the results of Monte-Carlo calculations using the same model.

Butler, D. M.↗

Multi-Layer Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Comparison with ARM Observations and Sensitivity Experiments

A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is used to simulate the multiple-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) clouds that occurred during a three-and-a-half day subperiod of the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). The CRM is implemented with an advanced two-moment microphysics scheme, a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme, and a complicated third-order turbulence closure. Concurrent meteorological, aerosol, and ice nucleus measurements are used to initialize the CRM. The CRM is prescribed by time-varying large-scale advective tendencies of temperature and moisture and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. The CRM reproduces the occurrences of the single- and double-layer MPS clouds as revealed by the M-PACE observations. However, the simulated first cloud layer is lower and the second cloud layer thicker compared to observations. The magnitude of the simulated liquid water path agrees with that observed, but its temporal variation is more pronounced than that observed. As in an earlier study of single-layer cloud, the CRM also captures the major characteristics in the vertical distributions and temporal variations of liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), droplet number concentration and ice crystal number concentration (nis) as suggested by the aircraft observations. However, the simulated mean values differ significantly from the observed. The magnitude of nis is especially underestimated by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the lower cloud layer is closely related to the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat; the upper cloud layer is probably initialized by the large-scale advective cooling/moistening and maintained through the strong longwave (LW) radiative cooling near the cloud top which enhances the dynamical circulation; artificially turning off all ice-phase microphysical processes results in an increase in LWP by a factor of 3 due to interactions between the excessive LW radiative cooling and extra cloud water; heating caused by phase change of hydrometeors could affect the LWC and cloud top height by partially canceling out the LW radiative cooling. It is further shown that the resolved dynamical circulation appears to contribute more greatly to the evolution of the MPS cloud layers than the parameterized subgrid-scale circulation.

Luo, Yali↗

Assimilating EOS-Aura OMI and MLS Data in GEOS-5

Data assimilation is a potentially powerful method of extracting the maximum amount of information from observed data by combining their information with models. in this application, we will use stratospheric ozone profiles retrieved from EOS MLS and total column amounts retrieved from OMI' along with the GEOS-5 GCM, that includes a representation of ozone chemistry and transport. The presentation will discuss how well we can derive tropospheric ozone column information in this system, including its sensitivity to model errors and some assumptions made in the assimilation system. We discuss also ozone structures in the tropopause region and their sensitivity to model resolution and other fact=ors. An important issue we examine is how much more information we obtain from ozone assimilation than from model studies using state of the art chemistry models - answering such questions helps determine how useful ozone assimilation really is, given our present capabilities in chemical modeling.

Pawson, Steven↗

Single and Double ITCZ in Aqua-Planet Models with Globally Uniform Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Insolation: An Interpretation

It has been known for more than a decade that an aqua-planet model with globally uniform sea surface temperature and solar insolation angle can generate ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone). Previous studies have shown that the ITCZ under such model settings can be changed between a single ITCZ over the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator through one of several measures. These measures include switching to a different cumulus parameterization scheme, changes within the cumulus parameterization scheme, and changes in other aspects of the model design such as horizontal resolution. In this paper an interpretation for these findings is offered. The latitudinal location of the ITCZ is the latitude where the balance of two types of attraction on the ITCZ, both due to earth's rotation, exists. The first type is equator-ward and is directly related to the earth's rotation and thus not sensitive to model design changes. The second type is poleward and is related to the convective circulation and thus is sensitive to model design changes. Due to the shape of the attractors, the balance of the two types of attractions is reached either at the equator or more than 10 degrees away from the equator. The former case results in a single ITCZ over the equator and the latter case a double ITCZ straddling the equator.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

mathematical models↗

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗

Strain energy of thermally stressed multilayer panels and its sensitivity coefficients

A study is made of the effect of lamination and material parameters of thermally stressed multilayer composite panels on the strain energy and its sensitivity coefficients obtained by the three-dimensional thermoelasticity model. The sensitivity coefficients measure the sensitivity of the strain energy to variations in the different lamination and material parameters of the panel. The strain energy and sensitivity coefficients obtained by the three-dimensional model are used as the basis for assessing the accuracy of the corresponding quantities obtained by two-dimensional first-order shear deformation theory. Numerical results are presented for antisymmetrically laminated angle-ply panels subjected to linear temperature variation through the thickness. The numerical results demonstrate the accuracy of the strain energy and its sensitivity coefficients obtained by the first-order shear deformation theory, for the range of parameters considered, and the importance of the particular terms in the strain energy, which vanish for single-layer panels.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

A discourse on sensitivity analysis for discretely-modeled structures

A descriptive review is presented of the most recent methods for performing sensitivity analysis of the structural behavior of discretely-modeled systems. The methods are generally but not exclusively aimed at finite element modeled structures. Topics included are: selections of finite difference step sizes; special consideration for finite difference sensitivity of iteratively-solved response problems; first and second derivatives of static structural response; sensitivity of stresses; nonlinear static response sensitivity; eigenvalue and eigenvector sensitivities for both distinct and repeated eigenvalues; and sensitivity of transient response for both linear and nonlinear structural response.

Adelman, Howard M.↗

Modeling Dust Mineralogical Composition: Sensitivity to Soil Mineralogy Atlases and Their Expected Climate Impacts

Soil dust aerosols are a key component of the climate system, as they interact with short- and long-wave radiation, alter cloud formation processes, affect atmospheric chemistry and play a role in biogeochemical cycles by providing nutrient inputs such as iron and phosphorus. The influence of dust on these processes depends on its physicochemical properties, which, far from being homogeneous, are shaped by its regionally varying mineral composition. The relative amount of minerals in dust depends on the source region and shows a large geographical variability. However, many state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), upon which climate analyses and projections rely, still consider dust mineralogy to be invariant. The explicit representation of minerals in ESMs is more hindered by our limited knowledge of the global soil composition along with the resulting size-resolved airborne mineralogy than by computational constraints. In this work we introduce an explicit mineralogy representation within the state-of-the-art Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) model. We review and compare two existing soil mineralogy datasets, which remain a source of uncertainty for dust mineralogy modeling and provide an evaluation of multiannual simulations against available mineralogy observations. Soil mineralogy datasets are based on measurements performed after wet sieving, which breaks the aggregates found in the parent soil. Our model predicts the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) in terms of its constituent minerals based on brittle fragmentation theory (BFT), which reconstructs the emitted mineral aggregates destroyed by wet sieving. Our simulations broadly reproduce the most abundant mineral fractions independently of the soil composition data used. Feldspars and calcite are highly sensitive to the soil mineralogy map, mainly due to the different assumptions made in each soil dataset to extrapolate a handful of soil measurements to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. For the least abundant or more difficult-to-determine minerals, such as iron oxides, uncertainties in soil mineralogy yield differences in annual mean aerosol mass fractions of up to ∼ 100 %. Although BFT restores coarse aggregates including phyllosilicates that usually break during soil analysis, we still identify an overestimation of coarse quartz mass fractions (above 2 µm in diameter). In a dedicated experiment, we estimate the fraction of dust with undetermined composition as given by a soil map, which makes up ∼ 10 % of the emitted dust mass at the global scale and can be regionally larger. Changes in the underlying soil mineralogy impact our estimates of climate-relevant variables, particularly affecting the regional variability of the single-scattering albedo at solar wavelengths or the total iron deposited over oceans. All in all, this assessment represents a baseline for future model experiments including new mineralogical maps constrained by high-quality spaceborne hyperspectral measurements, such as those arising from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Soil dust↗

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗

High Salt Intake Promotes Urinary Loss of Vitamin D Metabolites by Dahl Salt-Sensitive Rats in a Space Flight Model

Vitamin D metabolism in the Dahl salt-sensitive (S) rat, a model of salt-induced hypertension, differs from that in the Dahl salt-resistant (R) rat. We have demonstrated that female S rats are more vulnerable than female R rats to decreases in plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25-(OH)2D) concentrations during hind limb unloading (a space flight model). We report here on the response of the vitamin D endocrine system of S and R rats to hind limb unloading during high salt intake. Dahl female rats (9.7-week-old) were tail-suspended (hind limb unloaded) for 28 days, while fed a diet containing twice the salt in standard rat chow (2 % sodium chloride). Control rats were fed the same diet, but were not hind limb unloaded. Vitamin D metabolites were analyzed by HPLC and radioimmunoassay kits from Diasorin.

Thierry-Palmer, M.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Pressure-sensitive paint measurements on a supersonic high-sweep oblique wing model

The pressure-sensitive paint method was used in the test of a high-sweep oblique wing model, conducted in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel. Surface pressure data was acquired from both the luminescent paint and conventional pressure taps at Mach numbers between M = 1.6 and 2.0. In addition, schlieren photographs of the outer flow were used to determine the location of shock waves impinging on the model. The results show that the luminescent pressure-sensitive paint can capture both global and fine features of the static surface pressure field. Comparison with conventional pressure tap data shows good agreement between the two techniques, and that the luminescent paint data can be used to make quantitative measurements of the pressure changes over the model surface. The experiment also demonstrates the practical considerations and limitations that arise in the application of this technique under supersonic flow conditions in large-scale facilities, as well as the directions in which future research is necessary in order to make this technique a more practical wind-tunnel testing tool.

McLachlan, B. G.↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the traditional bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-1 1,1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. Furthermore, the observations and the well-proven bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region of the squall line system. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region simulated in the bulk scheme model are remnants of the stronger convections previously at the leading edge of the system, sustained by horizontal vorticity generated by its own cool pool near the surface. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in the convective zone simulated in the bulk microphysical scheme, which is unrealistic because of the assumptions made in raindrop size distribution. Further sensitivity tests that reduce the evaporation rate in bulk scheme artificially produce more upright convective core and less weak cores in stratiform region. However, they produce weaker upper level outflow and consequently less stratiform rain area. The addition of a more realistic raindrop breakup scheme in the bin scheme results more realistic radar reflectivity and stronger surface rainfall. Despite the increase of the rain evaporation and strengthening of the near surface cool pool, bin scheme with rain breakup shows homogeneous stratiform rain. These sensitivity tests prove the robustness of the bin microphysical scheme and the difficulty of tuning the limited parameters in the bulk microphysical scheme to realistically reproduce detail structures in a mid-latitude squall line case study.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗