Sensitivity and model reduction of simulated snow processes: Contrasting observational and parameter uncertainty to improve prediction
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Modeling & Simulation (M&S)”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Dwarf Galaxies at Cosmic Noon: New JWST Constraints on Satellite Models and Subhalo Tidal Evolution
The advent of JWST has revolutionized the study of faint satellite galaxies at z ≳ 1, enabling statistical constraints on galaxy evolution and the galaxy–halo connection in a previously unexplored mass and redshift regime. We compare satellite abundances at 1 < z < 3.5 from recent JWST observations with predictions from cosmological dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations. We identify and quantify several sources of biases that can impact theoretical satellite counts, finding that assumptions about subhalo tidal evolution introduce the largest uncertainty in predictions for the satellite mass function. Using a flexible galaxy disruption model, we explore a range of disruption scenarios, spanning hydrodynamically motivated and idealized prescriptions, to bracket plausible physical outcomes. We show that varying galaxy durability can change the predicted satellite mass functions by a factor of ∼3.5. The JWST data and our fiducial model are consistent within 1σ–2σ across the full redshift (1 < z < 3.5) and stellar mass (M⋆ > 10 7 M ⊙ ) range probed. We find evidence that subhalos are at least as long-lived as predicted by hydrodynamic simulations. Our framework will enable robust constraints on the tidal evolution of subhalos with future observations. This work presents the first direct comparison between cosmological models and observations of the high-redshift satellite population in this low-mass regime. These results showcase JWST’s emerging power to test structure formation in the first half of the Universe in a new domain and to constrain the physical processes driving the evolution of low-mass galaxies across cosmic time.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Stellar Mass Calibrations for Local Low-mass Galaxies
The stellar masses of galaxies are measured from integrated light via several methods—however, few of these methods were designed for low-mass (M ⋆ ≲ 10 8 M ⊙ ) “dwarf” galaxies, whose properties (e.g., stochastic star formation, low metallicity) pose unique challenges for estimating stellar masses. In this work, we quantify the precision and accuracy at which stellar masses of low-mass galaxies can be recovered using UV/optical/IR photometry. We use mock observations of 469 low-mass galaxies from a variety of models, including both semi-empirical models (GRUMPY and UniverseMachine-SAGA) and cosmological baryonic zoom-in simulations (MARVELous Dwarfs and FIRE-2), to test literature color–M ⋆ /L relations and multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) mass estimators. We identify a list of “best practices” for measuring stellar masses of low-mass galaxies from integrated photometry. We find that literature color–M ⋆ /L relations are often unable to capture the bursty star formation histories (SFHs) of low-mass galaxies, and we develop an updated prescription for stellar mass based on g − r color that is better able to recover stellar masses for the bursty low-mass galaxies in our sample (with ∼0.1 dex precision). SED fitting can also precisely recover stellar masses of low-mass galaxies, but this requires thoughtful choices about the form of the assumed SFH: Parametric SFHs can underestimate stellar mass by as much as ∼0.4 dex, while nonparametric SFHs recover true stellar masses with insignificant offset (−0.03 ± 0.11 dex). Finally, we also caution that noninformative (wide) dust attenuation priors may introduce M ⋆ uncertainties of up to ∼0.6 dex.
de los Reyes, Mithi A. C. [Amherst College, MA (Un↗
Towards in-situ certification of additively manufactured parts: the vital roles of physics-based and data-driven models
Certifying additively manufactured (AM) parts in-situ at the completion of a build is an enticing prospect, as it can help reduce the high costs associated with post-build testing and evaluation. However, achieving this goal presents significant challenges that may keep it aspirational for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, incremental progress can pave the way forward. A critical aspect of in-situ certification involves continuous quality checking due to the random nature of the AM process and the difficulties in detecting defects or anomalies once layers are built over. While real-time in-situ monitoring strategies assisted by machine learning (ML) play a pivotal role in auditing part quality, they must ideally be supported by real-time (or near real-time) adaptive process control enabled by ML-assisted decision-making. By analyzing in-situ monitoring data in real-time (or near real- time) to dynamically adjust manufacturing parameters, such intervention can ensure AM parts are built to meet stringent certification standards. This can be achieved virtually by using high-fidelity performance models for the physical testing and evaluation tasks. In this short editorial, we discuss the key contributions made by data-driven and physics-based models in providing intelligence to the monitoring and process control tasks underpinning in-situ certification and in the simulation of the build’s performance under test and service conditions. While our focus lies in metal AM, the concepts discussed here are also relevant to other AM processes.
: In-situ monitoring↗
An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston
Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.
Hurricane Harvey↗
Shallow Cumulus Properties as Captured by Adiabatic Fraction in High-Resolution LES Simulations
Abstract Shallow convective clouds are important players in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, and are abundant in the tropical and subtropical belts. They greatly contribute to the uncertainty in climate predictions due to their unresolved, complex processes that include coupling between the dynamics and microphysics. Analysis of cloud structure can be simplified by considering cloud motions as a combination of moist adiabatic motions like adiabatic updrafts and turbulent motions leading to deviation from adiabaticity. In this work, we study the sizes and occurrence of adiabatic regions in shallow cumulus clouds during their growth and mature stages, and use the adiabatic fraction (AF) as a continuous metric to describe cloud processes and properties from the core to the edge. To do so, we simulate isolated trade wind cumulus clouds of different sizes using the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) model in high resolution (10 m) with the Hebrew University spectral bin microphysics (SBM). The fine features in the clouds’ dynamics and microphysics, including small near-adiabatic volumes and a thin transition zone at the edge of the cloud (∼20–40 m in width), are captured. The AF is shown to be an efficient measure for analyzing cloud properties and key processes determining the droplet-size distribution formation and shape during the cloud evolution. Physical processes governing the properties of droplet size distributions at different cloud regions (e.g., core, edge) are analyzed in relation to AF. Significance Statement 1) This study investigates the evolution of cumulus clouds (Cu) using a 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. 2) The study improves the understanding of the mutual effects of adiabatic updrafts and lateral entrainment and mixing. 3) The study demonstrates the existence of an adiabatic core in nonprecipitating Cu. 4) Shapes of the droplet size distributions are closely related to the adiabatic fraction values. 5) Utilization of high resolution reveals the existence of physically significant small features in the cloud structure, such as a narrow cloud interface zone and small adiabatic volumes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: A Comparison between Masses Obtained from Detailed Lens Models, Single-halo Lens Models, and Einstein Radii
The core mass of galaxy clusters is both an important anchor of the radial mass distribution profile and probe of structure formation. With thousands of strong lensing galaxy clusters being discovered by current and upcoming surveys, timely, efficient, and accurate core mass estimates are needed. Here, we assess the results of two efficient methods to estimate the core mass of strong lensing clusters: the mass enclosed by the Einstein radius (M(<θ E ) where θ E is approximated from arc positions; Remolina González et al. 2020), and single-halo lens model (M SHM ; Remolina González et al. 2021), against measurements from publicly available detailed lens models (M DLM ) of the same clusters. We use data from the Sloan Giant Arc Survey, the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey, the Hubble Frontier Fields, and the Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble. We find a scatter of 18.2% (8.2%) with a bias of -7.1% (1.0%) between M corr (<θ arcs ) (M SHM ) and M DLM . Last, we compare the statistical uncertainties measured in this work to those from simulations. This work demonstrates the successful application of these methods to observational data. As the effort to efficiently model the mass distribution of strong lensing galaxy clusters continues, we need fast, reliable methods to advance the field.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics
Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.
Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
Determination of the titanium spectral function from ($e,e'p$) data
The E12-14-012 experiment, performed in Jefferson Lab Hall A, has measured the (e, e'p) cross section in parallel kinematics using a natural titanium target. In this paper, we report the analysis of the dataset obtained in different kinematics for our solid natural titanium target. Data were obtained in a range of missing momentum and missing energy between 15 ≲ p m ≲ 250 MeV / c and 12 ≲ E m ≲ 80 MeV, respectively, and using an electron beam energy of 2.2 GeV. We measured the reduced cross section with ~7% accuracy as a function of both missing momentum and missing energy. Furthermore, our Monte Carlo simulation, including both a model spectral function and the effects of final-state interactions, satisfactorily reproduces the data.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Structure of the thermal boundary layer in turbulent channel flows at transcritical conditions
Enhanced fluctuations, steep gradients, and intensified heat transfer are characteristics of wall-bounded turbulence at transcritical conditions. Although such conditions are prevalent in numerous technical applications, the structure of the thermal boundary layer under realistic density gradients and heating conditions remains poorly understood. Specifically, statistical descriptions of the temperature field in such flows are provided inconsistently using existing models. To address this issue, direct numerical simulations are performed by considering fully developed transcritical turbulent channel flow at pressure and temperature conditions that cause density changes of a factor of up to $O(20)$ between the hot and cold walls. As a consequence of the proximity of the Widom line to the hot wall, significant asymmetries are observed when comparing regions near the cold wall and near the hot wall. Previous transformations that attempt to collapse the near-wall mean temperature profiles among different cases to a single curve are examined. By addressing model deficiencies of these transformations, a formulation for an improved mean temperature transformation is proposed, with appropriate considerations for real fluid effects that involve strong variations in thermodynamic quantities. Our proposed transformation is shown to perform well in collapsing the slope of the logarithmic region to a single universal value with reduced uncertainty. Coupled with a predictive framework to estimate the non-universal shift parameter of the logarithmic region using a priori information, our transformation provides an analytic profile to model the near-wall mean temperature. These results thus provide a framework to guide the development of models for wall-bounded transcritical turbulence.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Large-eddy simulation of very stable boundary layers. Part I: Modeling methodology
Not provided.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Exploring Dependencies of Work Function on Topography and the Application to Micron-scale Field Emission Model for PIC-DSMC Simulations .
Abstract not provided.
Moore, Christopher↗
A hybrid machine learning and reservoir simulation approach to modeling gas hydrate systems using open-source software.
Abstract not provided.
Nole, Michael↗
New Virtual Test Bed Capabilities: Virtual DOME Model and New Updates to Repository
The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy National Reactor Innovation Center accelerates the deployment of novel reactor concepts by establishing both physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed represents the virtual arm of the National Reactor Innovation Center and is a joint effort with the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program. The Virtual Test Bed mission is to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of cutting-edge DOE advanced modeling and simulation tools to design, evaluate, and license reactors. This is primarily achieved by storing example challenge problems in an externally available repository and by developing models to fill the M&S gaps needed for potential demonstrators. Activities conducted this fiscal year focused on developing of a Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model to help accelerate the confirmatory analysis required for the reactor demonstration. This model and workflow will allow developers to leverage advanced modeling and simulation tools to ensure their reactor demonstration concept will meet dose requirements and that the surrounding shield will stay within concrete temperature limits during steady-state and transient operation conditions. An initial model has been developed to evaluate the temperature distribution in the concrete shield during steady-state operation, including neutron and gamma heating effects. Various modeling strategies have been examined to understand their applicability and limitations with different reactor designs to make the workflow as reactor-agnostic as possible and computationally effective to maximize its usability. In addition to describing the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model and associated results, this report summarizes other accomplishments regarding repository maintenance and improvement and new external models hosted on the repository.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model
Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.
Di Vittorio, Alan↗
The sensitivity of the Fitch wind farm parameterization to a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme
Abstract. Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds often significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, as of the Weather Research and Forecasting model v4.3.3, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. We simulate a wind plant in pseudo-steady states under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with matching hub-height wind speeds using two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, average hub-height wind speed losses within the plant differ between PBL schemes by between −0.20 and 0.22 m s−1, and correspondingly, capacity factors range between 39.5 %–53.8 %. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Black Hole Supernovae, Their Equation of State Dependence, and Ejecta Composition
Abstract Recent literature on core-collapse supernovae suggests that a black hole (BH) can form within ∼1 s of shock revival, while still culminating in a successful supernova. We refer to these as BH supernovae, as they are distinct from other BH formation channels in both timescale and impact on the explosion. We simulate these events self-consistently from core collapse until 20–50 days after collapse using three axisymmetric models of a 60 M ⊙ zero-age main-sequence progenitor star and investigate how the composition of the ejecta is impacted by the BH formation. We employ Skyrme-type equations of state (EOSs) and vary the uncertain nucleonic effective mass, which affects the pressure inside the proto–neutron star through the thermal part of the EOS. This results in different BH formation times and explosion energies at BH formation, yielding final explosion energies between 0.06 and 0.72 × 10 51 erg with 21.8–23.3 M ⊙ of ejecta, of which 0–0.018 M ⊙ is 56 Ni. Compared to expectations from 1D simulations, we find more nuanced EOS dependences of the explosion dynamics, the mass of the BH remnant, and the elemental composition of the ejecta. We investigate why the explosions survive despite the massive overburden and link the shape of the diagnostic energy curve and character of the ejecta evolution to the progenitor structure.
Eggenberger Andersen, Oliver (ORCID:00000002966079↗
Iodide oxidation by ozone at the surface of aqueous microdroplets
The kinetics of iodide oxidation by ozone are studied in single microdroplets to explore chemical reactivity at the air–water interface. Molecular simulations and kinetic modeling are employed to understand the underlying multiphase mechanism.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗