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At least 325 records · Page 18

Responses of Boreal Forest Ecosystems and Permafrost to Climate Change and Disturbances: A Modeling Perspective

The north circumpolar region contains a large amount of carbon. This carbon storage is vulnerable due to permafrost degradation and wildfire disturbances under ongoing and projected climate change. Climate warming and wildfires change soil organic horizons gradually or abruptly, and modify permafrost thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry, ecosystem structures, functions, and capability of sequestrating rising atmospheric CO2. Land models do not fully take accounts of these interactions and its complexity in the high latitude. This chapter describes a terrestrial ecosystem model with dynamic organic soil module (DOS-TEM) and its unique freezing-thawing algorithm, and presents key results of its applications mainly in boreal forests of Alaska. The DOS-TEM explicitly considers interactions of soil thermal and hydrological processes, permafrost degradation and the direct and indirect effects of wildfire disturbances, in addition to soil–plant C and N cycles. We first introduce four modules of DOS-TEM, focusing on its disturbance module and coupling with a dynamic organic soil module. Then we describe and validate DOS-TEM’s freezing-thawing algorithm and development based on two-directional Stefan algorithm (TDSA). Finally, we apply the DOS-TEM at site and region scales, with a focus on model ability to dynamically simulate soil organic thickness under warming and wildfires, and consequent impacts on permafrost in the Yukon River Basin. We conclude that land surface model development is urgently needed to include other critical landscape processes, such as thermalkarst and other disturbances, to synchronize thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical processes, and to incorporate an advanced understanding of biospheric feedbacks to atmosphere and ecosystems. Such a complexity of modeling scope is plausible with advancement of high performance computing.

Yi, Shuhua↗

SPEL: Software tool for Porting E3SM Land Model with OpenACC in a Function Unit Test Framework

Most high-end computers adopt hybrid architecture, porting a large-scale scientific code onto accelerators is necessary. The paper presents a generic method for porting large-scale scientific code onto accelerators using compiler directives within a modularized function unit test platform. We have implemented the method and designed a software tool (SPEL) to port the E3SM Land Model (ELM) onto the GPUs in the Summit computer. SPEL automatically generates GPU-ready test modules for all ELM functions, such as CanopyFlux, SoilTemperature, and EcosystemDynamics. SPEL breaks the ELM into a collection of standalone unit test programs for easy code verification and further performance improvement. We further optimize several ELM test modules with advanced techniques, including memory reduction, reconstructed parallel loops, and asynchronous GPU kernel launch. We hope our study will inspire new toolkit developments that expedite large-scale scientific code porting with compiler directives.

Schwartz, Peter↗

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Solar Model with g-Modes

Good evidence is assembled showing that the Suit's core arid surface vary on time scales from a month to a decade arid that a number of scales are similar. The most plausible source for numerous long time scales and periodicities is long-lived global oscillations. This suggests g-modes (oscillations restored mainly by buoyancy) because they particularly affect the core and base of the convective envelope, which then indirectly modulates the surface. Also, standing g-modes have rotational properties that match many observed periodicities. But the standard solar model (SSM) has a static core and excites few if any g-modes. making new interior structures worth exploring. The model outlined here assumes two well mixed shells near 0.18 and 0.68 R, (13 = solar radius) where sound speed data shows sharp deviations from the SSM. Mixing is sustained by flows driven by the oscillations. The shells form a cavity that excludes g-modes from their main damping region below 0.1 R, assisting their net excitation and increasing their oscillation periods by at least a factor of two and probably much more. In terms of the solar luminosity L, the modes transport up through the cavity a power approx. 0.004 L as a lower limit and 0.11 L as all upper limit. The modes dissipate energy in the outer shell and cool the inner shell, asymmetrically in each case, and this stimulates occasional convective events whose response time is typically 0.8 years longer near the inner shell. Such events cool the core and reduce neutrino flux while heating the envelope and increasing solar activity. This gives a physical basis for a well mixed Sun with low neutrino flux and basis for the observed anticorrelation and lag of neutrino behind surface activity.

Wolff, Charles L.↗

Development of an Exactly Solvable Model of Resonance Tunneling of Electromagnetic Waves through Gradient Barriers in a Nonuniform Magnetoactive Plasma

An exactly solvable one-dimensional model describing resonance tunneling (reflectionless transmission) of a transverse electromagnetic wave through wide layers of magnetoactive plasma is developed on the basis of the Helmholtz equation. The plasma layers include a set of spatially localized density structures the amplitudes and thicknesses of which are such that approximate methods are inapplicable for their analysis. The profiles of the plasma density structures strongly depend on the choice of the free parameters of the problem that determine the amplitudes of plasma density modulation, characteristic scale lengths of the density structures, their number, and the total thickness of the nonuniform plasma layer. The plasma layers can also include a set of random inhomogeneities. The propagation of electromagnetic waves through such complicated plasma inhomogeneities is analyzed numerically within the proposed exactly solvable model. According to calculations, there are a wide set of inhomogeneous structures for which an electromagnetic wave incident from vacuum can propagate through the plasma layer without reflection, i.e., the complete tunneling of thick plasma barriers takes place. The model also allows one to exactly solve a one-dimensional problem on the nonlinear transillumination of a nonuniform plasma layer in the presence of cubic nonlinearity. It is important that, due to nonlinearity, the thicknesses of the evanescent plasma regions can decrease substantially and, at a sufficiently strong nonlinearity, such regions will disappear completely. The problem of resonance tunneling of electromagnetic radiation through gradient wave barriers is of interest for various applications, such as efficient heating of dense plasma by electromagnetic radiation and transmission of electromagnetic signals from a source located in the near-Earth plasma or deep in the plasma of an astrophysical object through the surrounding evanescent regions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Standard Ruler at Cosmic Dawn

The matter in our Universe comes in two flavors: dark and baryonic. Of these, only the latter couples to photons, giving rise to the well-known baryon acoustic oscillations and, in the process, generating supersonic relative velocities between dark matter and baryons. These velocities—imprinted with the acoustic scale in their genesis—impede the formation of the first stars during cosmic dawn (z ~ 20), modulating the expected 21-cm signal from this era. In a companion paper we showed, combining numerical simulations and analytic models, that this modulation takes the form of robust velocity-induced acoustic oscillations (VAOs), with a well-understood shape that is frozen at recombination, and unaffected by the unknown astrophysics of star formation. Here we propose using these VAOs as a standard ruler at cosmic dawn. We find that three years of 21-cm power-spectrum data from the upcoming HERA interferometer should be able to measure the Hubble expansion rate H(z) at z = 15–20 to percent-level precision, ranging from 0.3% to 11% depending on the strength of astrophysical feedback processes and foregrounds. Furthermore, this would provide a new handle on the expansion rate of our Universe during an otherwise unprobed epoch, opening a window to the mysterious cosmic-dawn era.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of Local Structural Loads Computed by OpenFAST Against Measurements From the Focal Experimental Campaign: Preprint

This work presents the validation of the local structural load modeling capability in OpenFAST for floating substructures based on data from the FOCAL experimental campaign. Previously, OpenFAST could only represent the floating substructure as a rigid body, and though this approach can model the global response of the floater in most cases, it is not able to capture the structural loads within its individual members. Consideration of local substructure loads is important for some floating designs, as the pursuit of cost reduction often results in lighter and more flexible structures. To address this limitation, the HydroDyn (hydrodynamics) and SubDyn (substructure dynamics) modules of OpenFAST have been recently extended to account for the flexibility of floating substructures. To validate this new capability, we compare the results obtained by OpenFAST with data measured during the FOCAL experimental campaign, which analyzed a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the IEA 15-MW reference turbine atop a modified University of Maine VolturnUS-S semisubmersible in a wave basin under the action of both wind and waves. For the purposes of the present work, the most important feature of the experiment is the presence of load cells at the root of each pontoon, and our objective is to assess how well those loads are reproduced by OpenFAST. To model the distributed hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads along the floating substructure, we adopt a strip-theory approach based on the Morison equation, and we discuss the impact of different hydrodynamic modeling options (wave stretching, MacCamy-Fuchs correction, and second-order wave kinematics) on both motions and loads. For simplicity, we focus on wave-only conditions, both regular and irregular. The results demonstrate good overall agreement for the loads at the root of the pontoons for the waves analyzed in this work, especially given the assumptions and simplifications inherent to a simple strip-theory model.

floating offshore wind turbine↗

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Here, our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

Carbonaceous aerosols↗

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

Dynamical Modulation of Solar Flare Electron Acceleration due to Plasmoid-shock Interactions in the Looptop Region

A fast-mode shock can form in the front of reconnection outflows and has been suggested as a promising site for particle acceleration in solar flares. Recent developments in the study of magnetic reconnection have shown that numerous plasmoids can be produced in a large-scale current layer. Here we investigate the dynamical modulation of electron acceleration in the looptop region when plasmoids intermittently arrive at the shock by combining magnetohydrodynamics simulations with a particle kinetic model. As plasmoids interact with the shock, the looptop region exhibits various compressible structures that modulate the production of energetic electrons. The energetic electron population varies rapidly in both time and space. The number of 5–10 keV electrons correlates well with the compression area, while that of >50 keV electrons shows good correlation with the strong compression area but only moderate correlation with shock parameters. We further examine the impacts of the first plasmoid, which marks the transition from a quasi-steady shock front to a distorted and dynamical shock. The number of energetic electrons is reduced by ~20% at 15–25 keV and nearly 40% for 25–50 keV, while the number of 5–10 keV electrons increases. In addition, the electron energy spectrum above 10 keV evolves softer with time. We also find that double or even multiple distinct sources can develop in the looptop region when the plasmoids move across the shock. Our simulations have strong implications to the interpretation of nonthermal looptop sources, as well as the commonly observed fast temporal variations in flare emissions, including the quasi-periodic pulsations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Control strategies for planetary rover motion and manipulator control

An unusual insect-like vehicle designed for planetary surface exploration is made the occasion for a discussion of control concepts in path selection, hazard detection, obstacle negotiation, and soil sampling. A control scheme which actively articulates the pitching motion between a single-loop front module and a dual loop rear module leads to near optimal behavior in soft soil; at the same time the vehicle's front module acts as a reliable tactile forward probe with a detection range much longer than the stopping distance. Some optimal control strategies are discussed, and the photos of a working scale model are displayed.

Trautwein, W.↗

Propagation in a shearing plasma. II - Turbulence and the frequency range of pulsar microstructure

Numerical calculations are presented which explore the propagation of radio waves and pulses through a turbulent shearing plasma. A stochastic model is used to describe the turbulent velocity field, in which random fluctuations are superposed on a mean profile. Both Gaussian wave packets and shot-noise pulses polarized in the plane of shearing acquire quasi-periodic intensity modulations above the rest-frame plasma frequency. The frequency range over which these modulations appear is shown to depend on the spatial correlation length of the turbulent fluctuations and on their standard deviation from the mean velocity. The period of the modulations is variable from one realization of the random process to the next, and the average period is frequency dependent. The results of these calculations lend further support to a model for pulsar microstructure in which periodic micropulses are pure temporal modulations of the emitted radiation due to propagation effects in magnetospheric shearing regions. It is shown that turbulence on a scale of approximately 10 cm can produce these quasi-periodic modulations over a frequency range comparable to that of observed microstructure.

Harding, A. K.↗

Elevated Aerosol Layers and Their Radiative Impact over Kanpur During Monsoon Onset Period

Accurate information about aerosol vertical distribution is needed to reduce uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and its effect on atmospheric dynamics. The present study deals with synergistic analyses of aerosol vertical distribution and aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological variables using multisatellite and ground-based remote sensors over Kanpur in central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Micro-Pulse Lidar Network-derived aerosol vertical extinction (sigma) profiles are analyzed to quantify the interannual and daytime variations during monsoon onset period (May-June) for 2009-2011. The mean aerosol profile is broadly categorized into two layers viz., a surface layer (SL) extending up to 1.5 km (where sigma decreased exponentially with height) and an elevated aerosol layer (EAL) extending between 1.5 and 5.5 km. The increase in total columnar aerosol loading is associated with relatively higher increase in contribution from EAL loading than that from SL. The mean contributions of EALs are about 60%, 51%, and 50% to total columnar AOD during 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. We observe distinct parabolic EALs during early morning and late evening but uniformly mixed EALs during midday. The interannual and daytime variations of EALs are mainly influenced by long-range transport and convective capacity of the local emissions, respectively. Radiative flux analysis shows that clear-sky incoming solar radiation at surface is reduced with increase in AOD, which indicates significant cooling at surface. Collocated analysis of atmospheric temperature and aerosol loading reveals that increase in AOD not only resulted in surface dimming but also reduced the temperature (approximately 2-3 C) of lower troposphere (below 3 km altitude). Radiative transfer simulations indicate that the reduction of incoming solar radiation at surface is mainly due to increased absorption by EALs (with increase in total AOD). The observed cooling in lower troposphere in high aerosol loading scenario could be understood as a dynamical feedback of EAL-induced stratification of lower troposphere. Further, the observed radiative effect of EALs increases the stability of the lower troposphere, which could modulate the large-scale atmospheric dynamics during monsoon onset period. These findings encourage follow-up studies on the implication of EALs to the Indian summer monsoon dynamics using numerical models.

aerosol vertical distribution↗

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

Validating Irradiance Models for High-Latitude Vertical Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems

Bifacial photovoltaic systems oriented vertically facing east-west are an emerging design, targeting production in morning and afternoon hours and providing competitive annual energy yield to traditional south-tilted modules for high latitude locations. The accuracy of existing bifacial PV models when modules are oriented vertically has yet to be examined in detail. Here, we compare four bifacial PV irradiance models in ~150 locations between 15-80 degrees N on the utility-scale, finding higher inter-model deviations for vertical PV systems than south-tilted across all latitudes less than 75 degrees N. We validate model-predicted irradiance with test-site data collected in Golden, Colorado and Fairbanks, Alaska for E-W vertical and south-tilted arrays. View factor models agree with E-W vertical test-site data in Golden with RMSE=15%. Modelling error increases for the Alaskan test-site to RMSE values between 21-30%, driven in part by high albedo measurement uncertainty during snowy months.

bifacial↗

Validation of Local Structural Loads Computed by OpenFAST Against Measurements From the FOCAL Experimental Campaign

This work presents the validation of the local structural load modeling capability in OpenFAST for floating substructures based on data from the FOCAL experimental campaign. Previously, OpenFAST could only represent the floating substructure as a rigid body, and though this approach can model the global response of the floater in most cases, it is not able to capture the structural loads within the floater's individual members. Consideration of local substructure loads is important for some floating designs, because the pursuit of cost reduction often results in lighter and more flexible structures. To address this limitation, the HydroDyn (hydrodynamics) and SubDyn (substructure dynamics) modules of OpenFAST have been recently extended to account for the flexibility of floating substructures. To validate this new capability, we compare the results obtained by OpenFAST with data measured during the FOCAL experimental campaign, which analyzed a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the IEA 15-MW reference turbine atop a modified University of Maine VolturnUS-S semisubmersible in a wave basin under the action of both wind and waves. For the purposes of the present work, the most important feature of the experiment is the presence of load cells at the root of each pontoon, and our objective is to assess how well those loads are reproduced by OpenFAST. To model the distributed hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads along the floating substructure, we adopt a strip-theory approach based on the Morison equation, and we discuss the impact of different hydrodynamic modeling options (wave stretching, MacCamy-Fuchs correction, and second-order wave kinematics) on both motions and loads. For simplicity, we focus on wave-only conditions, both regular and irregular. The results demonstrate good overall agreement for the loads at the root of the pontoons for the waves analyzed in this work, especially given the assumptions and simplifications inherent to a simple strip-theory model.

floating offshore wind turbine↗

Less Atmospheric Radiative Heating By Dust Due to the Synergy of Coarser Size and Aspherical Shape

Mineral dust aerosols cool and warm the atmosphere by scattering and absorbing solar (shortwave: SW) and thermal (longwave: LW) radiation. However, significant uncertainties remain in dust radiative effects, largely due to differences in the dust size distribution and spectral optical properties simulated in Earth system models. Dust models typically underestimate the coarse dust load (more than 2.5 µm in diameter) and assume a spherical shape, which leads to an overestimate of the fine dust load (less than 2.5 µm) after the dust emissions in the models are scaled to match observed dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (DAOD550). Here, we improve the simulated dust properties with data sets that leverage measurements of size-resolved dust concentration, asphericity factor, and refractive index in a coupled global chemical transport model with a radiative transfer module. After the adjustment of size-resolved dust concentration and spectral optical properties, the global and annual average of DAOD550 from the simulation increases from 0.023 to 0.029 and falls within the range of a semi-observationally based estimate (0.030 ± 0.005). The reduction of fine dust load after the adjustment leads to a reduction of the SW cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). To improve agreement against a semi-observationally based estimate of the radiative effect efficiency at TOA, we find that a less absorptive SW dust refractive index is required for coarser aspherical dust. Thus, only a minor difference is estimated for the net global dust radiative effect at TOA (−0.08 vs. −0.00 W m−2 on a global scale). Conversely, our sensitivity simulations reveal that the surface warming is substantially enhanced near the strong dust source regions (less cooling to −0.23 from −0.60 W m−2 on a global scale). Thus, less atmospheric radiative heating is estimated near the major source regions (less heating to 0.15 from 0.59 W m−2 on a global scale), because of enhanced LW warming at the surface by the synergy of coarser size and aspherical shape.

simulated dust properties↗

Modulating the dynamics of Brønsted acid sites on PtWOx inverse catalyst

Here metal-metal oxide (M-MO) inverse catalysts are broadly applied. Brønsted acid sites on the oxide overlayers are often hypothesized to drive selective C-O bond activation. However, the Brønsted acid site nature and dynamics under working conditions remain poorly understood due to multiple materials functionalities. Here, we investigate the formation and the dynamics of Brønsted acid and redox sites on PtWO x /C under working conditions. DFT-based thermodynamic calculations and microkinetic modeling reveal a complex interplay between Brønsted acid and redox sites and potentially fast catalyst dynamics at comparable time scales to the chemistry. Combining in situ characterization and probe chemistry, we demonstrate that the density of Brønsted acid sites on the PtWO x /C inverse catalyst could be modulated by up to two orders of magnitude by altering the reaction parameters and by the chemistry itself. We elicit an order of magnitude increase in the acid-catalyzed dehydration average reaction rate by periodic hydrogen pulsing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗