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A test of present-day plate geometries for northeast Asia and Japan

Alternative geometries for the present-day configuration of plate boundaries in northeast Asia and Japan are tested using NUVEL-1 and 256 horizontal earthquake slip vectors from the Japan and northern Kuril trenches. Statistical analysis of the slip vectors is used to determine whether the North American, Eurasian, or Okhotsk plate overlies the trench. Along the northern Kuril trench, slip vectors are well-fit by the NUVEL-1 Pacific-North America Euler pole, but are poorly fit by the Pacific-Eurasia Euler pole. Results for the Japan trench are less conclusive, but suggest that much of Honshu and Hokkaido are also part of the North American plate. The simplest geometry consistent with the trench slip vectors is a geometry in which the North American plate extends south to 41 deg N, and possibly includes northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido. Although these results imply that the diffuse seismicity that connects the Lena River delta to Sakhalin Island and the eastern Sea of Japan records motion between Eurasia and North America, onshore geologic and seismic data define an additional belt of seismicity in Siberia that cannot be explained with this geometry. Assuming that these two seismic belts constitute evidence for an Okhotsk block, two published kinematic models for motion of the Okhotsk block are tested. The first model, which predicts motion of up to 15 mm/yr relative to North America, is rejected because Kuril and Japan trench slip vectors are fit more poorly than for the simpler geometry described above. The second model gives a good fit to the trench slip vectors, but only if Okhotsk-North America motion is slower than 5 mm/yr.

Demets, Charles↗

A worldwide aerosol phenomenology: Elemental and organic carbon in PM 2.5 and PM 10

Elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the inhalable (PM 10 ) and fine (PM 2.5 ) size fractions are measured worldwide, albeit with different analytical methods. These measurements from many researchers were collected and analyzed for Africa, America, Asia, and Europe for 2012–2019. EC/PM, OC/PM, and OC/EC ratios were examined based on region, site type, and season to infer potential sources and impacts. These analyses demonstrate that carbonaceous materials are important PM constituents throughout the world. Mean EC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in Sahelian Africa and Europe (∼0.01), highest (>0.07) in PM 2.5 at urban sites in North America, South America, and Japan. Mean OC/PM ratios were lowest in PM 10 in the Sahel (∼0.06) and in PM 2.5 in China and Thailand (0.10), and highest in central and eastern Europe (∼0.3) and North America (∼0.4). OC/EC ratios were elevated in western and northern Europe, and at regional background sites in North America. EC/PM increased with PM 10 in Thailand, while OC/PM increased with higher PM mass in Thailand, India, and North America, highlighting the specific contribution of carbonaceous aerosols to PM pollution in these regions. At European and North American background sites, OC/EC ratios increased with PM mass. Higher OC/EC ratios in dry periods indicate influence of wildfires, prescribed burns, and secondary aerosol formation. Elevated wintertime EC/PM ratios coincide with residential heating in temperate climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures

In this study, we detect and track extratropical cyclones using 6-hourly mean sea level pressure data taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) over the period 1951–2015 and compare them with those in the Interim and fifth generation of ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2018. Three indices were employed to characterize cyclone activity, including cyclone count, cyclone intensity, and a cyclone activity index (CAI) that combines the count and intensity. The results show that the cyclone indices in the three datasets have comparable annual climatologies and seasonal evolution over the northern extratropical land and ocean in recent decades. Based on the cyclone indices over the period 1951–2010 in 80 ensemble members of 20CRv3, cyclone count and intensity are negatively correlated in winter and tend to be positively and weakly correlated in summer. The interannual CAI variability is dominated by the cyclone count variability. Regional mean cyclone activity can be well represented using the ensemble average cyclone index. We then examined the linkage of the cyclone activity in 20CRv3 and observed cold and warm extremes over Eurasia and North America over the period 1951–2010. In winter, the principal components of interannual cold and warm extreme anomalies are more correlated with the regional mean cyclone count index over Eurasia, while they are more correlated with the cyclone intensity index over North America. The temperature anomalies associated with the regional and ensemble mean cyclone count index explain about 10% (20%) of interannual cold (warm) extreme variances averaged over Eurasia. The temperature anomalies associated with the mean cyclone intensity explain about 10% of interannual cold and warm extreme variances over North America. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with cyclone activity and the induced temperature advection drive temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America. In summer, circulation and thermal advection anomalies associated with cyclone activity are weak over the two continents. Hence, that season’s relationship between cyclone activity and extreme temperature variability is weak.

20CRv3↗

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Plate Velocities from the Global Positioning System

We have analyzed 204 days of Global Positioning System (GPS) data from the global GPS network spanning January 1991 through March 1996. On the basis of these GPS coordinate solutions, we have estimated velocities for 38 sites, mostly located on the interiors of the Africa, Antarctica, Australia, Eurasia, Nazca, North America, Pacific, and South America plates. The uncertainties of the horizontal velocity components range from 1.2 to 5.0 mm/yr. With the exception of sites on the Pacific and Nazca plates, the GPS velocities agree with absolute plate model predictions within 95% confidence. For most of the sites in North America, Antarctica, and Eurasia, the agreement is better than 2 mm/yr. We find no persuasive evidence for significant vertical motions (less than 3 standard deviations), except at four sites. Three of these four were sites constrained to geodetic reference frame velocities. The GPS velocities were then used to estimate angular velocities for eight tectonic plates. Absolute angular velocities derived from the GPS data agree with the no net rotation (NNR) NUVEL-1A model within 95% confidence except for the Pacific plate. Our pole of rotation for the Pacific plate lies 11.5 deg west of the NNR NUVEL-1A pole, with an angular speed 10% faster. Our relative angular velocities agree with NUVEL-1A except for some involving the Pacific plate. While our Pacific-North America angular velocity differs significantly from NUVEL-1A, our model and NUVEL-1A predict very small differences in relative motion along the Pacific-North America plate boundary itself. Our Pacific-Australia and Pacific- Eurasia angular velocities are significantly faster than NUVEL-1A, predicting more rapid convergence at these two plate boundaries. Along the East Pacific Pise, our Pacific-Nazca angular velocity agrees in both rate and azimuth with NUVFL-1A.

Larson, Kristine M.↗

More high-impact atmospheric river-induced extreme precipitation events under warming in a high-resolution model

Extreme precipitation events, as occurred in Europe 2021, or western North America 2023, with an intensity of 75 mm/day or 100 mm/day, respectively, exert a catastrophic impact. Lower-resolution (~100 km) climate models cannot simulate the intensity, nor their response to greenhouse warming. Using a high-resolution (~25 km) model capable of simulating such events, here we show that frequency-weighted area of such events over western Europe and the west coast of North America likely expands by more than 80% under an approximately 4°C of global warming from the historical levels. Along the west coasts of Europe and North America, area impacted by atmospheric rivers-induced extreme precipitation events is projected to double, driven by intensified landfalling atmospheric rivers. Thermodynamic processes drive the increase, whereas dynamic processes reduce the intensity over western Europe but enhance it along the west coast of North America. Here our findings provide policy-relevant information for climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data

North American vegetation has been discovered to be a net carbon sink, with atypical behavior of drawing down more carbon from the atmosphere during the past century. It has been suggested that the Northern Hemisphere will respond favorably to climate warming by enhancing productivity and reducing the impact of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere. Many investigations are currently underway to understand and identify mechanisms of storage so they might be actively managed to offset carbon emissions which have detrimental consequences to the functioning of ecosystems and human well being. This paper used a time series of satellite data from multiple sensors at multiple resolutions over the past thlrty years to identify and understand mechanisms of change to vegetation productivity throughout North America. We found that humans had a marked impact to vegetation growth in half of the six selected study regions which cover greater than two million km2. We found climatic influences of increasing temperatures, and longer growing seasons with reduced snow cover in the northern regions of North America with forest fire recovery in the Northern coniferous forests of Canada. The Mid-latitudes had more direct land cover changes induced by humans coupled with climatic influences such as severe drought and altered production strategies of rain-fed agriculture in the upper Midwest, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the lower Midwest, and insect outbreaks followed by subsequent logging in the upper Northeast. Vegetation growth over long time periods (20+ years) in North America appears to be associated with long term climate change but most of the marked changes appear to be associated with climate variability on decadal and shorter time scales along with direct human land cover conversions. Our results document regional land cover land use change and climatic influences that have altered continental scale vegetation dynamics in North America.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

Stratospheric Impact on the Northern Hemisphere Winter and Spring Ozone Interannual Variability in the Troposphere

In this study we use ozone and stratospheric ozone tracer simulations from the high-resolution (0.5°x0.5°) Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) in a replay mode to study the impact of stratospheric ozone on tropospheric ozone interannual variability (IAV). We use these simulations in conjunction with ozone sonde measurements from 1990 to 2016 during the winter and spring seasons. The simulations include a stratospheric ozone tracer (StratO3) to aid 15in the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric ozone IAV on the IAV of tropospheric ozone at different altitudes and location. The model is in good agreement with the observed interannual variation of tropospheric ozone, except for the post-Pinatubo period(1992-1994)over the region of North America. Ozone sonde data show a negative ozone anomaly in 1992-1994 following the Pinatubo eruption, with recovery thereafter. The simulated anomaly is only half the magnitude of that observed. Our analysis suggests that the simulated Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE)flux deduced from the analysis 20might be too strong over the North American (50°N-70°N) region after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the early 1990s,maskingthe impact of lower stratospheric ozone concentration on tropospheric ozone. European ozone sonde measurements show a similar but weaker ozone depletion after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which is fully reproduced by the model. Analysis based on the stratospheric ozone tracer (StratO3) identifies differences in strength and vertical extent of stratospheric ozone impact on the tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV)between North America and Europe. Over NorthAmerica25stations, the StratO3IAV has a significant impact on tropospheric ozone from the upper to lower troposphere and explains about 60% and 66% of the simulated ozone IAV at 400 hPa, and ~11% and 34% at 700 hPa in winter and spring respectively. Over European stations, the influence is limited to the middle to upper troposphere, and becomes much smaller at 700 hPa. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)assimilated fields exhibit strong longitudinal variations over northern hemisphere (NH) mid-high latitudes, with lower tropopause height and 30lower geopotential height over North America than Europe. These variations associated with the relevant variations in the location of tropospheric jet flows are responsible for the longitudinal differences in the stratospheric ozone impact, with stronger effects over North America than over Europe

tropospheric ozone IAV, Model, ozonesonde, stratos↗

Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past few decades around the world. In this study, the Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (EAST) system is merged into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) to quantify the variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, source contributions, and their subsequent radiative impact in four major emission regions across the globe during 1850–1980, 1980–2010, and 2010–2017. In North America and Europe, changes in anthropogenic PM 2.5 were mainly caused by changes in emissions from local energy and industrial sectors. The local industrial sector caused the largest increase in PM 2.5 in East Asia during 1980–2010 and decrease during 2010–2017. In South Asia, the increase in energy-related emissions dominated the rise in PM 2.5 levels during 1980–2017. During 1850–1980, the increases in emissions from North America contributed to the increase in the European PM 2.5 burden by 1.7 mg m -2 and the sources from the Europe were also responsible for the PM 2.5 burden increase in East Asia and South Asia by about 1.0 mg m -2 . During 1980–2010, East Asia contributed to an increase of 0.4–0.6 mg m -2 in the PM 2.5 burden in North America and Europe, while South Asia contributed about 0.3 mg m -2 . During 2010–2017, the contributions from East Asia to the PM 2.5 burdens in the North America, Europe, and South Asia declined by 0.3–0.6 mg m -2 due to the clean air actions in China, while the contributions from South Asia still increased due to the continuous increase in emissions in South Asia. The historical changes in aerosols had an impact on effective radiative forcing through aerosol–radiation interactions (ERF ari ). During 1980–2010, a decline in North American aerosols resulted in a positive ERF ari change (warming effect) in Europe and a decline in aerosols in Europe caused a warming effect in Russia and northern China. The changes in ERF ari from the increase and decrease in aerosols in China during 1980–2010 and 2010–2017, respectively, are comparable in magnitude. The continuous aerosol increases in South Asia from 1980 to 2017 resulted in negative ERF ari (cooling) changes in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and southern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Growing Pacific Linkage with Western North Atlantic Explosive Cyclogenesis

Abstract Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 h, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the north central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave train pattern of alternating high and low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave train and coastal EC frequency. Using coupled model experiments, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

North American Wintering Mallards Infected With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Show Few Signs of Altered Local or Migratory Movements

Avian influenza viruses pose a threat to wildlife and livestock health. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds and poultry in North America in late 2021 was the first such outbreak since 2015 and the largest outbreak in North America to date. Despite its prominence and economic impacts, we know relatively little about how HPAI spreads in wild bird populations. In January 2022, we captured 43 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in Tennessee, USA, 11 of which were actively infected with HPAI. These were the first confirmed detections of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Mississippi Flyway. We compared movement patterns of infected and uninfected birds and found no clear differences; infected birds moved just as much during winter, migrated slightly earlier, and migrated similar distances as uninfected birds. Infected mallards also contacted and shared space with uninfected birds while on their wintering grounds, suggesting ongoing transmission of the virus. We found no differences in body condition or survival rates between infected and uninfected birds. Together, these results show that HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was unrelated to body condition or movement behavior in mallards infected at this location during winter; if these results are confirmed in other seasons and as HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve, they suggest that these birds could contribute to the maintenance and dispersal of HPAI in North America. Further research on more species across larger geographic areas and multiple seasons would help clarify potential impacts of HPAI on waterfowl and how this emerging disease spreads at continental scales, across species, and potentially between wildlife and domestic animals.

animal migration↗

The Manson impact structure, a possible site for a Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary impact

The Manson impact structure, about 35 km in diameter, is the largest impact crater recognized in the United States. Its center is located near the town of Manson, 29 km west of Fort Dodge, Iowa. The structure is not well known geologically because it is covered by tens of meters of glacial deposits. What is known about the structure was learned mostly from the study of water well cuttings. At Manson the normal Phanerozoic and Proterozoic sedimentary rocks were replaced by centrally uplifted Proterozoic crystalline rocks that are representative of the normal basement: This central uplift is surrounded by completely disrupted rocks which are roughly encircled by peripherally faulted and slumped sequences of normal sedimentary strata. Radially outward normal sedimentary strata are uplifted slightly. Manson, once interpreted as a cryptovolcanic structure, is now considered an impact structure based on its circular shape, its central uplift and the presence of multiple intersecting sets of shock lamellae in quartz grains from the central uplift. The Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum dating results for a microcline separate from the Manson 2-A core in the central uplift is shown. This spectrum is interpreted to indicate a nearly complete degassing of the microcline at the time of the Manson impact. The remainder of the gas released climbs in age with increasing temperature of release. This pattern of the age spectrum is interpreted to represent diffusional loss due to reheating at the time of the impact and during subsequent cooling. Shocked quartz grains, present in the iridium-bearing layer at the K-T boundary throughout the world, have a significantly larger size and are more abundant in the western interior of North America than elsewhere in the world. Furthermore, shocked feldspar and granitic fragments are found at the K-T boundary in North America. These observations indicate the K-T boundary impact must have penetrated continental crust in North America.

Hartung, J. B.↗

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗

Components of the ice age circulation

The effects of ice age boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and regional climate patterns are investigated using four GCM simulations. Particular consideration is given to sea surface temperature-sea ice distribution, the appearance of land ice, and the increased elevation of land ice. It is observed that the ice-age sea surface temperature stabilizes the atmosphere over the oceans, increases the frequency of storm tracking through central North America, and amplifies transient eddy energy without increasing baroclinic generation. It is detected that low-elevation ice generates low pressure over eastern North America and southern Europe in winter, while increasing cloud cover and cooling the land in summer. Elevation of the ice sheets cools the land in winter, further intensifies storms off northeastern North America, induces subsidence warming downstream of the European ice sheets in summer, and increases the transient and stationary eddy energy through increased baroclinicity.

Rind, D.↗

Impact of Asian Dust on Global Surface Air Quality and Radiation Budget

Dust originating from Asian deserts and desertification areas can be transported regionally and globally to affect surface air quality, visibility, and radiation budget not only at immediate downwind locations (e.g., eastern Asia) but also regions far away from the sources (e.g., North America). Deposition of Asian dust to the North Pacific Ocean basin influences the ocean productivity. In this study, we will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, remote sensing data form satellite and from the ground-based network, and in-situ data from aircraft and surface observations to address the following questions: - What are the effects of Asian dust on the surface air quality and visibility over Asia and North America? - What are the seasonal and spatial variations of dust deposition to the North Pacific Ocean? How does the Asian dust affect surface radiation budget?

Chin, Mian↗

Explaining Globally Inhomogeneous Future Changes in Monsoons Using Simple Moist Energy Diagnostics

Here, this study examines the annual cycle of monsoon precipitation simulated by models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), then uses moist energy diagnostics to explain globally inhomogeneous projected future changes. Rainy season characteristics are quantified using a consistent method across the globe. Model bias is shown to include rainy season onsets tens of days later than observed in some monsoon regions (India, Australia, and North America) and overly large summer precipitation in others (North America, South America, and southern Africa). Projected next-century changes include rainy season lengthening in the two largest Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Asia and central Sahel) and shortening in the two largest Southern Hemisphere regions (South America and southern Africa). Changes in the North American and Australian monsoons are less coherent across models. To understand these changes, relative moist static energy (MSE) is defined as the difference between local and tropical-mean surface air MSE. Future changes in relative MSE in each region correlate well with onset and demise date changes. Furthermore, Southern Hemisphere regions projected to undergo rainy season shortening are spanned by an increasing equator-to-pole MSE gradient, suggesting their rainfall will be increasingly inhibited by fluxes of dry extratropical air; Northern Hemisphere regions with projected lengthening of rainy seasons undergo little change in equator-to-pole MSE gradient. Thus, although model biases raise questions as to the reliability of some projections, these results suggest that globally inhomogeneous future changes in monsoon timing may be understood through simple measures of surface air MSE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrophoretic enzyme analysis of North American and eastern Asian populations of Agastache sect. Agastache (Labiatae)

Genetic relationships among the seven species of Agastache sect. Agastache common in North America and the one found in eastern Asia were assessed using starch-gel electrophoresis of twelve enzymatic proteins. Nei's (1976) genetic distance and identity values, calculated among the 32 populations used in this study, partitioned the Agastache section into four discrete groups: (1) A. nepetoides (eastern North America), (2) A. scrophulariifolia and A. foeniculum (eastern and central North America), (3) the four species of the western U.S. (A. urticifolia, A. occidentalis, A. parvifolia, and A. cusickii), and (4) A. rugosa (eastern Asia). The Asian Agastache, separated from its American congeners for over 12 million years, differed from American populations at only two (the IDH-1 and LAP-1 alleles) of the fifteen loci surveyed; these alleles were not found in any of the North American plants. Nei's genetic distances between the Asian and North American populations ranged from 0.2877 to 0.6734.

Vogelmann, James E.↗