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NASA NTRS2001

The 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Tropical Ozone Climatology: Ozonesonde Precision, Accuracy and Station-to-Station Variability

As part of the SAFARI-2000 campaign, additional launches of ozonesondes were made at Irene, South Africa and at Lusaka, Zambia. These represent campaign augmentations to the SHADOZ database described in this paper. This network of 10 southern hemisphere tropical and subtropical stations, designated the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) project and established from operational sites, provided over 1000 profiles from ozonesondes and radiosondes during the period 1998-2000. (Since that time, two more stations, one in southern Africa, have joined SHADOZ). Archived data are available at: http://code9l6.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data-services/shadoz>. Uncertainties and accuracies within the SHADOZ ozone data set are evaluated by analyzing: (1) imprecisions in stratospheric ozone profiles and in methods of extrapolating ozone above balloon burst; (2) comparisons of column-integrated total ozone from sondes with total ozone from the Earth-Probe/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite and ground-based instruments; (3) possible biases from station-to-station due to variations in ozonesonde characteristics. The key results are: (1) Ozonesonde precision is 5%; (2) Integrated total ozone column amounts from the sondes are in good agreement (2-10%) with independent measurements from ground-based instruments at five SHADOZ sites and with overpass measurements from the TOMS satellite (version 7 data). (3) Systematic variations in TOMS-sonde offsets and in groundbased-sonde offsets from station to station reflect biases in sonde technique as well as in satellite retrieval. Discrepancies are present in both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. (4) There is evidence for a zonal wave-one pattern in total and tropospheric ozone, but not in stratospheric ozone.

Witte, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Insights into Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) Data Record

We describe the first overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropics based on a three year, ten site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approximately 7 hPa and relative humidity to approximately 200 hPa, are at an archive: http://code9l6. gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/shadoz. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone, a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone, and signatures of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts usually peak between August and November and are lowest in the first half of the year. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the waning 1997-1998 Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO (El Nino / Southern Oscillation), seasonal convection and pollution transport from Africa. Tropospheric ozone over the Atlantic Basin reflects regional subsidence and recirculation as well as pollution ozone from biomass burning.

Thompson, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional Ozonesondes) Network: A Project for Satellite Research, Process Studies, Education

The first climatological overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropical and subtropics is based on ozone sounding data from 10 sites comprising the Southern Hemisphere Additional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The period covered is 1998-2000. Observations were made over: Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Campaign data were collected on a trans-Atlantic oceanographic cruise and during SAFARI-2000 in Zambia. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approx. 7 hPa and relative humidity to approx. 200 hPa, reside at: . SHADOZ ozone time-series and profiles give a perspective on tropical total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone and a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts peak between August and November and are lowest between March and May. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole and convective mixing. Pollution transport from Africa and South America is a seasonal feature. Tropospheric ozone seasonality over the Atlantic Basin shows effects of regional subsidence and recirculation as well as biomass burning. Dynamical and chemical influences appear to be of comparable magnitude though model studies are needed to quantify this.

Thompson, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving Total Column Ozone Retrievals by Using Cloud Pressures Derived from Raman Scattering in the UV

The higher spectral resolution, coverage, and sampling of the Aura satellite ozone monitoring instrument (OMI), as compared with the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) should allow for improved ozone retrievals, including estimates of tropospheric ozone. By default, the TOMS-like OMI total column ozone algorithm uses climatological cloud-top pressures based on infrared (IR) measurements to estimate the column ozone below the clouds. Alternatively, cloud pressure can be retrieved using atmospheric rotational Raman scattering with OMI. The retrieved cloud pressures should be more consistent with assumptions made in the total ozone algorithm. Here, we use data from the global ozone monitoring experiment (GOME) to estimate total ozone using both the IR-climatological and retrieved cloud pressures. The exceed approximately 15 DU. Use of the UV cloud pressure retrievals leads to a smoother distribution of ozone along a satellite track by reducing small spatial irregularities presumably caused by errors in the climatological cloud pressures.

Vasilkov, A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Discoveries about Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Satellite and Sounding

We have been producing near-real time tropospheric ozone satellite maps from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) sensor since 1997. This is most readily done for the tropics, where the stratospheric and tropospheric ozone column amounts can be discriminated readily. Maps for 1996-2000 for the operational Earth-Probe instrument reside at: chttp://www.atmos.umd.edu/-trope>. Pollution in the tropics is influenced by biomass burning and by transport patterns that favor recirculation and in other cases reflect climate variability like the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation [Thompson et al., 2001]. Time permitting, examples of mid-latitude, intercontinental transport of ozone pollution sensed by TOMS will be shown. The satellite view of chemical-dynamical interactions in tropospheric ozone is not adequate to capture vertical variability. Thus, in 1998, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and a team of international sponsors established the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) project to address the gap in tropical ozone soundings. SHADOZ augments launches and provides a public archive of ozonesonde data from twelve tropical stations at http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz. Further insights into the role of chemical and dynamical influences have emerged from the first 4-5 years of SHADOZ data (less than 2000 ozone profiles): (a) highly variable tropospheric ozone; (b) a zonal wave-one pattern in tropospheric column ozone; (c) convective variability affects tropospheric ozone over the Indian and Pacific Ocean; (d) a "tropical Atlantic Paradox" appears in December-January-February.

Thompson, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

SAGE III solar ozone measurements: Initial results

Results from two retrieval algorithms, o3-aer and o3-mlr , used for SAGE III solar occultation ozone measurements in the stratosphere and upper troposphere are compared. The main differences between these two retrieved (version 3.0) ozone are found at altitudes above 40 km and below 15 km. Compared to correlative measurements, the SAGE II type ozone retrievals (o3-aer) provide better precisions above 40 km and do not induce artificial hemispheric differences in upper stratospheric ozone. The multiple linear regression technique (o3_mlr), however, can yield slightly more accurate ozone (by a few percent) in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. By using SAGE III (version 3.0) ozone from both algorithms and in their preferred regions, the agreement between SAGE III and correlative measurements is shown to be approx.5% down to 17 km. Below 17 km SAGE III ozone values are systematically higher, by 10% at 13 km, and a small hemispheric difference (a few percent) appears. Compared to SAGE III and HALOE, SAGE II ozone has the best accuracy in the lowest few kilometers of the stratosphere. Estimated precision in SAGE III ozone is about 5% or better between 20 and 40 km and approx.10% at 50 km. The precision below 20 km is difficult to evaluate because of limited coincidences between SAGE III and sondes. SAGE III ozone values are systematically slightly larger (2-3%) than those from SAGE II but the profile shapes are remarkably similar for altitudes above 15 km. There is no evidence of any relative drift or time dependent differences between these two instruments for altitudes above 15-20 km.

Wang, Hsiang-Jui↗
NASA NTRS2006

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Long-term Evolution of Upper Stratospheric Ozone at Selected Stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45 S), reaching 8%/decade, compared to only about 6%/decade at Table Mountain (35 N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux (approximately equal to 45 N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern(approximately equal to 47 N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20 N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.

Steinbrecht, W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Stratospheric Ozone in the Post-CFC Era

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975-1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post- CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Li, Feng↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Stratospheric Ozone in the Post-CFC Era

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975-1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Li, F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Global Climatology of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Aura OMI and MLS Measurements

A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone is derived by combining six years of Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone measurements for the period October 2004 through December 2010. The OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone climatology exhibits large temporal and spatial variability which includes ozone accumulation zones in the tropical south Atlantic year-round and in the subtropical Mediterranean! Asia region in summer months. High levels of tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere also persist in mid-latitudes over the eastern North American and Asian continents extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. For stratospheric ozone climatology from MLS, largest ozone abundance lies in the northern hemisphere in the latitude range 70degN-80degN in February-April and in the southern hemisphere around 40degS-50degS during months August-October. The largest stratospheric ozone abundances in the northern hemisphere lie over North America and eastern Asia extending eastward across the Pacific Ocean and in the southern hemisphere south of Australia extending eastward across the dateline. With the advent of many newly developing 3D chemistry and transport models it is advantageous to have such a dataset for evaluating the performance of the models in relation to dynamical and photochemical processes controlling the ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Ziemke, J.R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Smoothing Error in SBUV Profile and Total Ozone Retrieval

Data from the Nimbus-4, Nimbus-7 Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) and seven of the NOAA series of SBUV/2 instruments spanning 41 years are being reprocessed using V8.6 algorithm. The data are scheduled to be released by the end of August 2011. An important focus of the new algorithm is to estimate various sources of errors in the SBUV profiles and total ozone retrievals. We discuss here the smoothing errors that describe the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system can not measure. The SBUV(/2) instruments have a vertical resolution of 5 km in the middle stratosphere, decreasing to 8 to 10 km below the ozone peak and above 0.5 hPa. To estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm, the actual statistics of the fine vertical structure of ozone profiles must be known. The covariance matrix of the ensemble of measured ozone profiles with the high vertical resolution would be a formal representation of the actual ozone variability. We merged the MLS (version 3) and sonde ozone profiles to calculate the covariance matrix, which in general case, for single profile retrieval, might be a function of the latitude and month. Using the averaging kernels of the SBUV(/2) measurements and calculated total covariance matrix one can estimate the smoothing errors for the SBUV ozone profiles. A method to estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm is described and the covariance matrixes and averaging kernels are provided along with the SBUV(/2) ozone profiles. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. The analysis of the smoothing errors, based on the SBUV(/2) monthly zonal mean time series, shows that the largest smoothing errors were detected in the troposphere and might be as large as 15-20% and rapidly decrease with the altitude. In the stratosphere above 40 hPa the smoothing errors are less than 5% and between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors are on the order of 1%. We validate our estimated smoothing errors by comparing the SBUV ozone profiles with other ozone profiling sensors.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying TOLNet Ozone Lidar Accuracy During the 2014 DISCOVER-AQ and FRAPPE Campaigns

The Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) is a unique network of lidar systems that measure high-resolution atmospheric profiles of ozone. The accurate characterization of these lidars is necessary to determine the uniformity of the network calibration. From July to August 2014, three lidars, the TROPospheric OZone (TROPOZ) lidar, the Tunable Optical Profiler for Aerosol and oZone (TOPAZ) lidar, and the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL), of TOLNet participated in the Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) mission and the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPA) to measure ozone variations from the boundary layer to the top of the troposphere. This study presents the analysis of the intercomparison between the TROPOZ, TOPAZ, and LMOL lidars, along with comparisons between the lidars and other in situ ozone instruments including ozonesondes and a P-3B airborne chemiluminescence sensor. The TOLNet lidars measured vertical ozone structures with an accuracy generally better than +/-15 % within the troposphere. Larger differences occur at some individual altitudes in both the near-field and far-field range of the lidar systems, largely as expected. In terms of column average, the TOLNet lidars measured ozone with an accuracy better than +/-5 % for both the intercomparison between the lidars and between the lidars and other instruments. These results indicate that these three TOLNet lidars are suitable for use in air quality, satellite validation, and ozone modeling efforts.

TOLNet↗
NASA NTRS2017

Atmospheric Ozone Response to the Disrupted 2015-2016 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) - a quasi-periodic alternation between easterly and westerly zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere - is a main driver of inter-annual ozone variability in the stratosphere. During the late-2015 through 2016 time period, the QBO experienced a major disruption unlike any observed since wind measurements began in 1953. We examined the ozone response to this QBO disruption using profile ozone measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler and total column measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). Positive anomalies in stratospheric equatorial O3 developed between 50 and 30 hPa in May-September of 2016, and negative ozone anomalies were observed in the subtropics of both hemispheres. As a consequence of this QBO disruption, extratropical total ozone values during the spring-summer 2016 were at or near seasonal record lows over the more than 40 years of the total ozone record, resulting in an increase of surface UV index during northern hemisphere summer. We found very consistent responses in all considered ozone observations in terms of time, amplitude and spatial patterns. We will show the ozone changes associated with this disrupted QBO throughout the winter and spring 2017.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Update on Ozone Profile Trends for the Period 2000 to 2016

Ozone profile trends over the period 2000 to 2016 from several merged satellite ozone data sets and from ground-based data measured by four techniques at stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change indicate significant ozone increases in the upper stratosphere, between 35 and 48 kilometers altitude (5 and 1 hectopascals). Near 2 hectopascals (42 kilometers), ozone has been increasing by about 1.5 percent per decade in the tropics (20 degrees S to 20 degrees N), and by 2 to 2.5 percent per decade in the 35 to 60 degree latitude bands of both hemispheres. At levels below 35 kilometers (5 hectopascals), 2000 to 2016 ozone trends are smaller and not statistically significant. The observed trend profiles are consistent with expectations from chemistry climate model simulations. This study confirms positive trends of upper stratospheric ozone already reported, e.g., in the WMO/UNEP (World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environmental Programme) Ozone Assessment 2014 or by Harris et al. (2015). Compared to those studies, three to four additional years of observations, updated and improved data sets with reduced drift, and the fact that nearly all individual data sets indicate ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, all give enhanced confidence. Uncertainties have been reduced, for example for the trend near 2 hectopascals in the 35 to 60 degree latitude bands from about plus or minus 5 percent (2 sigma) in Harris et al. (2015) to less than plus or minus 2 percent (2 sigma). Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of possible drifts and differences between various data sources is still required, as is a detailed attribution of the observed increases to declining ozone-depleting substances and to stratospheric cooling. Ongoing quality observations from multiple independent platforms are key for verifying that recovery of the ozone layer continues as expected.

chemistry climate model simulations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tropospheric Ozone in the NASA GEOS Model: Effects of Satellite NO2 Data Assimilation and Improvements in Background NOx Chemistry

Tropospheric ozone is a major atmospheric oxidant, the primary source of the hydroxyl radical, and a greenhouse gas. In the troposphere, it is produced from the oxidation of carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) or has its origins in the stratosphere. The tropospheric ozone burdens in global atmospheric chemistry models disagree by a factor of 1.5, indicating an incomplete understanding of ozone sources and sinks. Here we examine the tropospheric ozone simulation in NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry mechanism (version 14.2), using observations from satellites, aircraft, ozonesondes, and surface sites. This modeling framework is used to produce GMAO’s GEOS Composition Forecasts (GEOS-CF), and it has been updated extensively with new emission inventories, improved model physics, satellite data assimilation capability, and an up-to-date chemical mechanism that includes tropospheric halogen chemistry and NOx recycling from particulate nitrate. Earlier versions of the model using GEOS-Chem version 12.0 showed an underestimate in tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere. We evaluate the ozone simulation in the updated model, focusing on the effects of assimilating satellite NO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), constraining stratospheric ozone to satellite data, and updates to the NOx chemistry. We will examine changes in the vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone over the US in support of the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), and discuss implications for the tropospheric ozone budget.

V. Shah↗