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At least 325 records · Page 18

Circumpolar Ocean Stability on Mars 3 Gy Ago

What was the nature of the Late Hesperian climate, warm and wet or cold and dry? Formulated this way the question leads to an apparent paradox since both options seem implausible. A warm and wet climate would have produced extensive fluvial erosion but few valley networks have been observed at the age of the Late Hesperian. A too cold climate would have kept any northern ocean frozen most of the time. A moderate cold climate would have transferred the water from the ocean to the land in the form of snow and ice. But this would prevent tsunami formation, for which there is some evidence. Here, we provide insights from numerical climate simulations in agreement with surface geological features to demonstrate that the Martian climate could have been both cold and wet. Using an advanced general circulation model (GCM), we demonstrate that an ocean can be stable, even if the Martian mean surface temperature is lower than 0 ∘C. Rainfall is moderate near the shorelines and in the ocean. The southern plateau is mostly covered by ice with a mean temperature below 0 ∘C and a glacier return flow back to the ocean. This climate is achieved with a 1-bar CO2-dominated atmosphere with 10% H2. Under this scenario of 3 Ga, the geologic evidence of a shoreline and tsunami deposits along the ocean/land dichotomy are compatible with ice sheets and glacial valleys in the southern highlands.

Mars↗

Southern Ocean Aerosols Field Campaign Report

Atmospheric processes over the Southern Ocean have a profound influence on regional and global climate. This is a part of the world where global climate models perform particularly poorly, with models persistently overpredicting the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface (Regayre et al. 2020). A major challenge when trying to improve the representation of atmospheric processes in this part of the globe is the scarcity of observations capable of constraining our understanding. During 2024/25 a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility field campaign (CAPE-k) deployed a suite of instrumentation at the kennaook/Cape Grim atmospheric monitoring station in Tasmania, Australia to provide detailed cloud-aerosol observations in this region in order to address the greatest source of uncertainty in climate models – atmospheric aerosols and how they influence cloud formation (Carslaw et al. 2013). In support of the ARM observations, an Australian Research Council (ARC)-funded project “Southern Ocean aerosols: sources, sinks and impact on cloud properties,” led by the Queensland University of Technology, complemented the ARM measurements with a suite of chemical measurements at the kennaook/Cape Grim site in northwestern Tasmania to provide more information on the processes controlling aerosol formation and growth. The deployment of the University of York LIF-SO2 instrument (Temple et al. 2025) in the ARM mobile facility container was part of this chemistry-focused deployment. Increased observational efforts are critical for understanding sources and sinks of Southern Ocean aerosols, in particular the role of marine micro-organisms (phytoplankton, algae) on aerosols formation, their properties and growth, cloud droplet formation, and the conversion of cloud droplets to ice crystals and precipitation. The observational focus of the ARC-funded project is aerosol chemical composition and their gaseous precursors. The remote nature of the Southern Ocean poses a significant analytical challenge when studying gaseous precursors, as low concentrations are often below the limits of detection of commercial instrumentation. Historically this has meant that observations have had to be time-averaged over days to weeks to achieve the limits of detection required. Although useful when considering overall average levels of aerosol precursors, this time-averaging obscures temporal variability that can provide insight into the controlling processes. Over recent years advances in analytical techniques have made high-time-resolution measurements of key gas-phase aerosol precursors achievable with sufficiently low limits of detection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗

Studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-derived sea surface topography

Our primary objective is to carry out studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived sea level data set in conjunction with the large in situ sea level data set available at the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Sea Level Center. These studies will be supported by an interaction with numerical model simulations of tropical ocean variability. Five specific objectives can be identified: (1) research products; (2) short-term climate variations; (3) tropical-current variations; (4) synoptic-scale variability; and (5) model simulations.

Lukas, Roger↗

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗

Helheim Glacier Ice Velocity Variability Responds to Runoff and Terminus Position, but at Different Timescales

The Greenland Ice Sheet discharges ice to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers. Recent acceleration of Greenland outlet glaciers has been linked to both oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Here, we leverage temporally dense observations, regional climate model output, and newly developed time series analysis tools to assess the most important forcings causing ice flow variability at one of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers, Helheim Glacier, from 2009 to 2017. We find that ice speed correlates most strongly with catchment-integrated runoff at seasonal to interannual scales, while multi-annual flow variability correlates most strongly with multi-annual terminus variability. The disparate time scales and the influence of subglacial topography on Helheim Glacier’s dynamics highlight different regimes that can inform modeling and forecasting of its future. Notably, our results suggest that the recent terminus history observed at Helheim is a response to, rather than the cause of, upstream changes.

Cryospheric science↗

Use of earth-radiation budget measurements for understanding climate change

Setting the baseline for the greenhouse effect, quantification of the water-vapor feedback, validation of longwave radiation models, determination of the trend in the clear sky albedo of the ocean, and determination of the role of clouds in climate are considered. A summary of cloud radiative forcing estimates is presented, and it is noted that the longwave cloud forcing is essentially the greenhouse effect of the clouds, and that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has to be increased by a factor of 250 to equal the cloud greenhouse effect. It is pointed out that the short-wave cloud forcing is due to the enhancement of the albedo of the planet by clouds. The decrease in the solar absorption of 48.4 W/sq m by clouds is found to be larger than its greenhouse effect by about 50 pct.

Ramanathan, V.↗

The Earth System Model

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Schoeberl, Mark↗

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget

The impacts of stratospheric ozone recovery on Southern Ocean surface and interior temperature, heat content, heat uptake, and heat transport are investigated by contrasting two ensemble chemistry-climate model simulations in 2005–2099: one with fixed ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and another with decreasing ODSs. In our simulations ozone recovery significantly affects Southern Ocean temperature, with large latitudinal and vertical variations. Ozone recovery causes a dipole change of the full-depth ocean heat content (OHC) with an increase south of 60°S and a decrease between 45°S and 60°S. Integrated over latitudes south of 40°S, OHC decreases in response to ozone recovery. This ocean heat loss is shown to be driven by weakened poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across 40°S, which is partly canceled by enhanced heat uptake. The weakening of poleward OHT into the Southern Ocean is caused by the ozone-induced equatorward shift of the meridional overturning circulation.

stratospheric ozone↗

The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

Volcanoes↗

Infrared radiation parameterizations for the minor CO2 bands and for several CFC bands in the window region

Fast and accurate parameterizations have been developed for the transmission functions of the CO2 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands, as well as the CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-22 bands located in the 8-12-micron region. The parameterizations are based on line-by-line calculations of transmission functions for the CO2 bands and on high spectral resolution laboratory measurements of the absorption coefficients for the CFC bands. Also developed are the parameterizations for the H2O transmission functions for the corresponding spectral bands. Compared to the high-resolution calculations, fluxes at the tropopause computed with the parameterizations are accurate to within 10 percent when overlapping of gas absorptions within a band is taken into account. For individual gas absorption, the accuracy is of order 0-2 percent. The climatic effects of these trace gases have been studied using a zonally averaged multilayer energy balance model, which includes seasonal cycles and a simplified deep ocean. With the trace gas abundances taken to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low Emissions 'B' scenario, the transient response of the surface temperature is simulated for the period 1900-2060.

Kratz, David P.↗

Impact of Pacific Ocean Heatwaves on Phytoplankton Community Composition

Since 2013, marine heatwaves have become recurrent throughout the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean and are expected to increase in intensity relative to historic norms. Among the ecological ramifications associated with these high temperature anomalies are increased mortality of higher trophic organisms such as marine mammals and seabirds, which are likely triggered by changes in the composition of phytoplankton, the base of the marine trophic food web. Here, we assimilated satellite ocean color data into an ocean biogeochemical model to describe changes in the abundance of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) during the last decade's (2010s) warm anomalies in the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We find important changes associated with the "Blob" warm anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska, where reduced silica supply led to a switch in community composition from diatoms to dinoagellates, resulting in an increase in surface ocean chlorophyll during the Summer-Fall of 2014. A more dramatic change was observed in the equatorial Pacific, where the extreme warm conditions of the 2016 El Niño resulted in a major decline of about 40 % in surface chlorophyll, which was associated with a nearly total collapse in diatoms.

Pacific Ocean↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Stability↗

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗

NCAR CCM2 simulation of the modern Antarctic climate

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model version 2 (CCM2) simulation of the circumpolar trough, surface air temperature, the polar vortex, cloudiness, winds, and atmospheric moisture and energy budgets are examined to validate the model's representation of the present-day Antarctic climate. The results show that the CCM2 can well simulate many important climate features over Antarctica, such as the location and intensity of the circumpolar trough, the coreless winter over the plateau, the intensity and horizontal distribution of the surface inversion, the speed and streamline pattern of the katabatic winds, the double jet stream feature over the southern Indian and Pacific oceans, and the arid climate over the continent. However, there are also some serious errors in the model. Some are due to old problems but some are caused by the new parameterizations in the model. The model errors over high southern latitudes can be summarized as follows: The circumpolar trough, the polar vertex, and the westerlies in midlatitudes are too strong; the semiannual cycle of the circumpolar trough is distorted compared to the observations; the low centers of the circumpolar trough and the troughs in the middle and upper troposphere are shifted eastward by 15 deg - 40 deg longitude; the surface temperatures are too cold over the plateau in summer and over the coastline in winter; the polar tropopause continues to have a cold bias; and the cloudiness is too high over the continent. These biases are induced by two major factors: (1) the cloud optical properties in tropical and middle latitudes, which cause the eastward shift of troughs and surface low centers and the error in the semiannual cycle, and (2) the cold bias of the surface air temperature, which is attributed to the oversimulation of cloudiness over the continent, especially during summer, and the uniform 2-m-thick sea ice. The constant thickness of sea ice suppresses the energy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and hence reduces the air temperature near the coast during winter. Finally, although the simulated Antarctic climate still suffers these biases, the overall performance of the CCM2 is much better than that of the CCM1-T42. Therefore the CCM2 is good enough to be used for climate change studies, especially over Antarctica.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗