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At least 325 records · Page 18

Saildrone Baja Field Campaign: A Comparison of Surface Meteorology with GEOS Products

The Saildrone Baja field campaign was an international effort to collect measurements across the air-sea interface for a 62-day period between April 11-June 11, 2018. The field campaign was executed using a saildrone, an unmanned surface vehicle (USV) carrying a comprehensive suite of instruments to measure meteorological, ocean surface, and subsurface data. We use these data to validate near-surface meteorology and ocean surface temperature fields in theGlobal Earth Observing System (GEOS). This is the first study using Saildrone data to validate GEOS products. As these USV platforms become more prevalent, they could be used to improve model representation of the air-sea interface variables.

Akella, Santha↗

An Overview of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulated Cloud Ice, Radiation Fields, Surface Wind Stress, Sea Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

The potential links between ice water path (IWP), radiation, circulation, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans resulting from the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) are examined from present day model outputs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. The latter is divided into two subsets with (SON6) and without FIREs (NOS6) as more models with FIREs are included in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Improvement in floating cloud ice (~20 g m-2) is noticeable over convective regions in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. The inclusion of FIREs in SON6 subset may contribute to reduce biases of overestimated outgoing longwave radiation and downward surface shortwave and overestimated reflected shortwave at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by magnitudes of 4?8 W m-2 over convective regions against CERES, compared to NOS6 subset. The reduced biases in radiative fluxes in convective regions stabilize the atmosphere and lead to circulation, SST, cloud and precipitation changes over the trade-wind regions, as seen from improved radiative fluxes (4?15 W m-2), surface wind stress biases, SST (0.2?0.8 K) and precipitation (1 mm day-1) biases. The significant improvement from NOS6 to SON6 leads to improved multi-model means for CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 for radiation fields over the trade wind regions but the degradation over convective zones is attributed to NOS6 subset. The results suggest that other sources of uncertainty and deficiencies in climate models may play significant roles for reducing discrepancies although FIREs, via radiation-circulation coupling, may be one of the factors that help to reduce regional biases.

Jui-Lin F Li↗

Intraseasonal Variability of the Equatorial Indian Ocean Observed from Sea Surface Height, Wind, and Temperature Data

The forcing of the equatorial Indian Ocean by the highly periodic monsoon wind cycle creates many interesting intraseasonal variabilities. The frequency spectrum of the wind stress observations from the European Remote Sensing Satellite scatterometers reveals peaks at the seasonal cycle and its higher harmonics at 180, 120, 90, and 75 days. The observations of sea surface height (SSH) from the Jason and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon radar altimeters are analyzed to study the ocean's response. The focus of the study is on the intraseasonal periods shorter than the annual period. The semiannual SSH variability is characterized by a basin mode involving Rossby waves and Kelvin waves traveling back and forth in the equatorial Indian Ocean between 10(deg)S and 10(deg)N. However, the interference of these waves with each other masks the appearance of individual Kelvin and Rossby waves, leading to a nodal point (amphidrome) of phase propagation on the equator at the center of the basin. The characteristics of the mode correspond to a resonance of the basin according to theoretical models. The theory also calls for similar modes at 90 and 60 days.

wind stress observations↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

Optically thin cirrus clouds over oceans and possible impact on sea surface temperature of warm pool in western Pacific

Over the convectively active tropical ocean regions, the measurement made from space in the IR and visible spectrum have revealed the presence of optically thin cirrus clouds, which are quite transparent in the visible and nearly opaque in the IR. The Nimbus-4 IR Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS), which has a field of view (FOV) of approximately 100 km, was utilized to examine the IR optical characteristics of these cirrus clouds. From the IRIS data, it was observed that these optically thin cirrus clouds prevail extensively over the warm pool region of the equatorial western Pacific, surrounding Indonesia. It is found that the seasonal cloud cover caused by these thin cirrus clouds exceeds 50 percent near the central regions of the warm pool. For most of these clouds, the optical thickness in the IR is less than or = 2. It is deduced that the dense cold anvil clouds associated with deep convection spread extensively and are responsible for the formation of the thin cirrus clouds. This is supported by the observation that the coverage of the dense anvil clouds is an order of magnitude less than that of the thin cirrus clouds. From these observations, together with a simple radiative-convective model, it is inferred that the optically thin cirrus can provide a greenhouse effect, which can be a significant factor in maintaining the warm pool. In the absence of fluid transports, it is found that these cirrus clouds could lead to a runaway greenhouse effect. The presence of fluid transport processes, however, act to moderate this effect. Thus, if a modest 20 W/sq m energy input is considered to be available to warm the ocean, then it is found that the ocean mixed-layer of a 50-m depth will be heated by approximately 1 C in 100 days.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Lateral variation in upper mantle temperature and composition beneath mid-ocean ridges inferred from shear-wave propagation, geoid, and bathymetry

Resolution of both the extent and mechanism of lateral heterogeneity in the upper mantle constraints the nature and scales of mantle convection. Oceanic regions are of particular interest as they are likely to provide the closest glimpse at the patterns of temperature anomalies and convective flow in the upper mantle because of their young age and simple crustal structure relative to continental regions. Lateral variations were determined in the seismic velocity and attenuation structure of the lithosphere and astenosphere beneath the oceans, and these seismological observations were combined with the data and theory of geoid and bathymetry anomalies in order to test and improve current models for seafloor spreading and mantle convection. Variations were determined in mantle properties on a scale of about 1000 km, comparable to the thickness of the upper mantle. Seismic velocity, geoid, and bathymetry anomalies are all sensitive to variations in upper mantle density, and inversions were formulated to combine quantitatively these different data and to search for a common origin. Variations in mantle density can be either of thermal or compositional origin and are related to mantle convection or differentiation.

Sheehan, Anne Francis↗

Event-scale relationships between surface velocity, temperature and chlorophyll in the coastal ocean, as seen by satellite

The overall goal of this project was to increase our understanding of processes which determine the temporally varying distributions of surface chlorophyll pigment concentration and surface temperature in the California Current System (CCS) on the time-scale of 'events', i.e., several days to several weeks. We also proposed to investigate seasonal and regional differences in these events. Additionally, we proposed to evaluate methods of estimating surface velocities and horizontal transport of pigment and heat from sequences of AVHRR and CZCS images. The four specific objectives stated in the original proposal were to: (1) test surface current estimates made from sequences of both SST and color images using variations of the statistical method of Emery et al. (1986) and estimate the uncertainties in these satellite-derived surface currents; (2) characterize the spatial and temporal relationships of chlorophyll and temperature in rapidly evolving features for which adequate imagery exist and evaluate the contribution of these events to monthly and seasonal averages; (3) use the methods tested in (1) to determine the nature of the velocity fields in the CCS; and (4) compare the currents, temperature, and currents in different seasons and in different geographic regions.

Strub, P. Ted↗

Extratropical Influence of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind on Water Recycling Rate Over Oceans and Coastal Lands

Water vapor and precipitation are two important parameters confining the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere and over the ocean surface. In the extratropical areas, due to variations of midlatitude storm tracks and subtropical jetstreams, water vapor and precipitation have large variability. Recently, a concept of water recycling rate defined previously by Chahine et al. (GEWEX NEWS, August, 1997) has drawn increasing attention. The recycling rate of moisture is calculated as the ratio of precipitation to total precipitable water (its inverse is the water residence time). In this paper, using multi-sensor spacebased measurements we will study the role of sea surface temperature and ocean surface wind in determining the water recycling rate over oceans and coastal lands. Response of water recycling rate in midlatitudes to the El Nino event will also be discussed. Sea surface temperature data are derived from satellite observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) blended with in situ measurements, available for the period 1982-1998. Global sea surface wind observations are obtained from spaceborne scatterometers aboard on the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS1 and 2), available for the period 1991-1998. Global total precipitable water provided by the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) is available for the period 1988-1995. Global monthly mean precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is available for the period 1987-1998.

Hu, Hua↗

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗

The Aquarius Scatterometer: An Active System for Measuring Surface Roughness for Sea-Surface Brightness Temperature Correction

The Aquarius scatterometer is a total-power L-band radar system for estimating ocean surface roughness. Its measurements will enable the removal of wind effects from the Aquarius radiometer ocean-surface brightness temperature measurements being used to retrieve ocean salinity. The Aquarius scatterometer is a relatively simple, low-spatial resolution power-detecting radar, without ranging capability. But to meet its science requirement, it must be very stable, with repeatability on the order of 0.1 dB over several days, and calibrated accuracy to this level over several months. Data from this instrument over land as well as ocean areas will be available for a variety of geophysical applications.

scatterometers↗

Broadband IR Measurements for Modis Validation

The primary objective of this research was the development and deployment of autonomous shipboard systems for infrared measurement of ocean surface skin temperature (SST). The focus was on demonstrating long-term, all-weather capability and supplying calibrated skin SST to the MODIS Ocean Science Team (MOCEAN). A secondary objective was to investigate and account for environmental factors that affect in situ measurements of SST for validation of satellite products. We developed and extensively deployed the Calibrated, InfraRed, In situ Measurement System, or CIRIMS, for at-sea validation of satellite-derived SST. The design goals included autonomous operation at sea for up to 6 months and an accuracy of +/- 0.1 C. We used commercially available infrared pyrometers and a precision blackbody housed in a temperature-controlled enclosure. The sensors are calibrated at regular interval using a cylindro-cone target immersed in a temperature-controlled water bath, which allows the calibration points to follow the ocean surface temperature. An upward-looking pyrometer measures sky radiance in order to correct for the non-unity emissivity of water, which can introduce an error of up to 0.5 C. One of the most challenging aspects of the design was protection against the marine environment. A wide range of design strategies to provide accurate, all-weather measurements were investigated. The CIRIMS uses an infrared transparent window to completely protect the sensor and calibration blackbody from the marine environment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, the design incorporates the ability to make measurements with and without the window in the optical path.

Jessup, Andrew T.↗

Geographic variation in the relationships of temperature, salinity or sigma sub t versus plant nutrient concentrations in the world ocean

A NODC data set representing all regions of the world ocean was analyzed for temperature and sigma-t relationships with nitrate, phosphate or silicic acid. Six cubic regressions were for each ten degree square of latitude and longitude containing adequate data. World maps display the locations that allow the prediction of plant nutrient concentrations from temperature or sigma-t. Geographic coverage improves along the sequence: nitrate, phosphate, and silicic acid and is better for sigma-t than for temperature. Contour maps of the approximate temperature of sigma-t at which these nitrients are no longer measurable in a parcel of water are generated, based on a percentile analysis of the temperature or sigma-t at which less than a selected amount of plant nutrient occurs. Results are stored on magnetic tape in tabular form. The global potential to predict plant nutrient concentrations from remotely sensed temperature of sigma-t and to emphasize the latitudinally and longitudinally changing phytoplankton growth environment in present and past oceans is demonstrated.

Kamykowski, D.↗

Surface heating and patchiness in the coastal ocean off central California during a wind relaxation event

The difference between the temperature of the ocean at 4-cm and 2-m depth was continuously monitored during a cruise to the coastal transition zone off Point Arena, California, during June 1987. The two temperatures were coincident most of the time but diverged during one nearshore leg of the cruise where large temperature differences of up to 4.7 C were observed between the 4-cm and 2-m sensors, in areas which were separated by regions where the two temperatures were coincident as usual. The spatial scale of this 'patchy' thermal structure was about 5-10 km. A mixed layer model (Garwood, 1977) was used to simulate the near surface stratification when forced by the observed wind stress, surface heating, and optical clarity of the water. The model produced a thin strongly stratified surface layer at stations where exceptionally high turbidity was observed but did not produce such features otherwise. This simple model could not explain the horizontal patchiness in the thermal structure, which was likely due to patchiness in the near-surface chlorophyll distributions or to submesoscale variability of the surface wind stress.

Ramp, Steven R.↗

An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Earth System science

Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global-scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land (soils, ice, snow) and marine and terrestrial living organisms. These processes both within and between the major parts of the system help determine global and regional climate and control the biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles essential to life. The study of the Earth System requires measurements ranging from the scales of the smallest processes to the global scale. An ambitious satellite observational program, the Earth Observing System (EOS), carried out along with the complementary and ongoing World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) represents a major international effort to understand this System and predict its future changes. The complex and intriguing nature of the Earth System is discussed along with a number of closely coupled processes occurring within it. These are: clouds, precipitation and vegetation; ocean circulation, sea-surface temperature and phytoplankton; coupled oceanic and atmospheric circulation (the Southern Oscillation); biological activity, atmospheric chemistry and climate; and biological emissions and the ozone layer.

Prinn, R. G.↗