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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The Poisson tensor completion non-parametric differential entropy estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator, a non-parametric differential entropy estimator. The PTC estimator leverages inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the intensity measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed PTC differential entropy estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values and so can be safely used directly in entropy estimation. Our estimator is the first tensor-based estimator that exploits the underlying spatial Poisson process related to the histogram explicitly when estimating the probability density with low-rank tensor decompositions for the purpose of tensor completion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Krylov Theory for Quantum Computing Algorithms

Quantum computers provide new avenues to access ground and excited state properties of systems otherwise difficult to simulate on classical hardware. New approaches using subspaces generated by real-time evolution have shown efficiency in extracting eigenstate information, but the full capabilities of such approaches are still not understood. In recent work, we developed the variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE) method, a compact and efficient real-time algorithm to extract eigenvalues on quantum hardware. Here we build on that work by theoretically and numerically exploring a generalized Krylov scheme where the Krylov subspace is constructed through a parametrized real-time evolution, which applies to the VQPE algorithm as well as others. We establish an error bound that justifies the fast convergence of our spectral approximation. We also derive how the overlap with high energy eigenstates becomes suppressed from real-time subspace diagonalization and we visualize the process that shows the signature phase cancellations at specific eigenenergies. We investigate various algorithm implementations and consider performance when stochasticity is added to the target Hamiltonian in the form of spectral statistics. To demonstrate the practicality of such real-time evolution, we discuss its application to fundamental problems in quantum computation such as electronic structure predictions for strongly correlated systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confirming X-ray Parametric Down Conversion by Time-Energy Correlation

We present measurements of X-ray Parametric Down Conversion at the Advanced Photon Source synchrotron facility. Using an incoming pump beam at 22 keV, we observe the simultaneous, elastic emission of down-converted photon pairs generated in a diamond crystal. The pairs are detected using high count rate silicon drift detectors with low noise. Production by down-conversion is confirmed by measuring time-energy correlations in the detector signal, where photon pairs within an energy window ranging from 10 to 12 keV are only observed at short time differences. By systematically varying the crystal misalignment and detector positions, we obtain results that are consistent with the constant total of the down-converted signal. Our maximum rate of observed pairs was 130 /hour, corresponding to a conversion efficiency for the down-conversion process of 5.3±0.5×10 -13 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed latent neural operator for real-time predictions of time-dependent parametric PDEs

Deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown significant promise as surrogate models for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling accurate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, when applied to systems with high-dimensional input-output mappings arising from large numbers of spatial and temporal collocation points, these models often require heavily overparameterized networks, leading to long training times. Latent DeepONet addresses some of these challenges by introducing a two-step approach: first learning a reduced latent space using a separate model, followed by operator learning within this latent space. While efficient, this method is inherently data-driven and lacks mechanisms for incorporating physical laws, limiting its robustness and generalizability in data-scarce settings. Here, in this work, we propose PI-Latent-NO, a physics-informed latent neural operator framework that integrates governing physics directly into the learning process. Our architecture features two coupled DeepONets trained end-to-end: a Latent-DeepONet that learns a low-dimensional representation of the solution, and a Reconstruction-DeepONet that maps this latent representation back to the physical space. By embedding PDE constraints into the training via automatic differentiation, our method eliminates the need for labeled training data and ensures physics-consistent predictions. The proposed framework is both memory and compute-efficient, exhibiting near-constant scaling with problem size and demonstrating significant speedups over traditional physics-informed operator models. We validate our approach on a range of parametric PDEs, showcasing its accuracy, scalability, and suitability for real-time prediction in complex physical systems.

Latent representations↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Efficient Reactive Force Field without Explicit Coordination Dependence for Studying Caustic Aluminum Chemistry

Reactive force fields (RFFs) are an expedient approach to sample chemical reaction paths in complex systems, relative to density functional theory. However, there is continued need to improve efficiencies, specifically in systems that have slow transverse degrees of freedom, as in highly viscous and superconcentrated solutions. Here, we present an RFF that is differentiated from current models (e.g., ReaxFF) by omitting explicit dependence on the atom coordination and employing a small parameter set based on Lennard-Jones, Gaussian, and Stillinger–Weber potentials. In this study, the model was parametrized from AIMD simulation data and is used to model aluminate reactivity in sodium hydroxide solutions with extensive validation against experimental radial distribution functions, computed free energy profiles for oligomerization, and formation energies. In conclusion, the model enables simulation of early stage Al(OH) 3 nucleation which has significant relevance to industrial processing of aluminum and has a computational cost that is reduced by 1 order of magnitude relative to ReaxFF.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Image processing workflow yielding high contrast synchrotron nanoscale computed tomography data from Ni-YSZ electrodes

The operating lifetime of Ni-YSZ fuel electrodes used in solid oxide electrolysis cells and fuel cells (SOECs and SOFCs) is limited by Ni redistribution, one of the primary degradation mechanisms that must be overcome to extend the longevity and maximize the performance of SOECs and SOFCs. To achieve this, 3D microstructural data is needed to relate both initial performance and performance loss over time to microstructural properties and their evolution throughout operation under various conditions. However, 3D microstructure data remains relatively scarce within the literature due to multiple challenges in acquiring and analyzing such data reliably. This work presents a workflow for acquiring and processing synchrotron X-ray nanoscale computed tomography (nano-CT) data from Ni-YSZ electrodes. Parameters for each step in the nano-CT workflow are described up to the final result (a 3D reconstruction), with particular emphasis on image alignment using freely available software. Following the results of a parametric sweep of the image alignment step, high contrast, low signal-to-noise 3D nano-CT data is obtained with relatively short compute times. While the exact methods best suited to samples with different microstructural qualities, or similar Ni-YSZ nano-CT data obtained from other sources may deviate from the solution found herein, this work also generalizes the decision points and evaluation of each step to provide a starting point to adapt this workflow to other datasets.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol emissions from water-lean solvents for post-combustion CO 2 capture

Advanced water-lean solvents (WLS) for post-combustion CO 2 capture have been gaining interest due to their ability to reduce the parasitic penalty from energy needed for solvent regeneration. Commercial implementation of these novel CO 2 capture technologies hinges on successful control of amine emissions. RTI conducted a parametric study of fundamental and operational variables influence on overall amine aerosol and vapor emissions from our water-lean solvent eCO 2 Sol™ using our 6-kW equivalent bench-scale gas absorption system. The parametric testing used a simulated flue gas with 15 % CO 2 , 2.3–4.2 % H 2 O, and 0–6 ppm sulfite (SO 3 ) to examine the impact of the presence of aerosols to the capture performance and amine emissions from the system. The SO 3 reacts with water in the flue gas to create H 2 SO 4 , which forms liquid aerosol droplets and provide nucleation sites for growth of aerosols. Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer and Aerodynamic Particle Sizer instruments monitored the aerosol particle size distribution. Parametric testing results suggested that the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall amine emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from WLS’s vapor pressure. Principal component analysis (PCA) and projection to latent squares (PLS) developed models to predict the aerosol-based amine emissions from process data. The predictive PLS model had a correlation coefficient (Q 2 ) of 0.92 and could predict the aerosol-based emissions from the NAS process with ±15 % accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD). The PLS regression model also identified key variables affecting aerosol-based emissions from WLS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phenomenology of TMD parton distributions in Drell-Yan and 𝑍 0 boson production in a hadron structure oriented approach

We present a first practical implementation of a recently proposed hadron structure oriented (HSO) approach to transverse momentum dependent (TMD) phenomenology applied to Drell-Yan-like processes, including lepton pair production at moderate 𝑄 2 and 𝑍 0 boson production. We compare and contrast general features of our methodology with other common practices and emphasize aspects that we view as improvements. Separately, we discuss the importance of treatments that preserve various theoretical properties of the nonperturbative parts of TMD parametrizations for future applications that have the extraction of hadron structure as a primary goal. These include the HSO’s preservation of a basic TMD parton-model-like framework even while accounting for full TMD factorization and evolution, explicit preservation of the integral relationship between TMD and collinear parton density functions, and the ability to meaningfully compare different theoretical models of nonperturbative TMD parton distributions. In our examples, we show that there is significant sensitivity at moderate 𝑄 2 to both the form of the nonperturbative transverse momentum dependence and the parametrization of collinear parton densities. However, we also find that evolving to 𝑄 2 =𝑀$^2_𝑍$, without fitting, results in a satisfactory postdiction of existing data for 𝑍0 production, nearly independently of the modeling of nonperturbative transverse momentum behavior. We argue that this demonstrates that moderate 𝑄 measurements should be given greater weight than high 𝑄 measurements in extractions of nonperturbative transverse momentum dependence. We also obtain new extractions of the nonperturbative Collins-Soper kernel within the HSO approach. We discuss its features and compare with some earlier extractions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vector bosons and jets in proton collisions

Events with vector bosons produced in association with jets have been extensively studied at hadron colliders and provide high-accuracy tests of the standard model. A good understanding of these processes is of paramount importance for precision Higgs physics, as well as for searches for new physics. In particular, associated production of γ, W, or Z bosons with light-flavor and heavy-flavor jets is a powerful tool for testing perturbative QCD calculations, Monte Carlo event generators, and can also constrain the parametrizations used to describe the parton content of the proton. Furthermore, events with a W or Z boson produced with two well-separated jets can be used to distinguish between electroweak and strong production mechanisms, and to set limits on contributions of physics beyond the standard model. This review summarizes the historical theoretical developments and the state-of-the-art in the modeling of vector-boson-plus-jet physics while focusing on experimental results by the LHC collaborations in run 1 and run 2 and including comparisons with recent measurements at the Tevatron.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weak structure functions in $\nu_l-N$ and $\nu_l-A$ scattering with nonperturbative and higher order perturbative QCD effects

We study the effect of various perturbative and nonperturbative QCD corrections on the free nucleon structure functions [FiNWI(x,Q2);i=1–3] and their implications in the determination of nuclear structure functions. The evaluation of the nucleon structure functions has been performed by using the MMHT 2014 parton distribution functions (PDFs) parametrization, and the target mass correction (TMC) and higher twist (HT) effects are incorporated following the works of Schienbein et al. and Dasgupta et al., respectively. These nucleon structure functions are taken as input in the determination of nuclear structure functions. The numerical calculations for the νl/ν¯l-A deep inelastic scattering (DIS) process have been performed by incorporating the nuclear medium effects like Fermi motion, binding energy, nucleon correlations, mesonic contributions, shadowing, and antishadowing in several nuclear targets such as carbon, polystyrene scintillator, iron, and lead, which are being used in MINERνA, and in argon nuclei, which is relevant for the ArgoNeuT and DUNE experiments. The differential scattering cross sections d2σAWIdxdy and (dσAWIdx/dσCHWIdx) have also been studied in the kinematic region of the MINERνA experiment. The theoretical results are compared with the recent experimental data of MINERνA and the earlier data of the NuTeV, CCFR, CDHSW, and CHORUS Collaborations. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the present results for the ratio (dσAWIdx/dσCHWIdx), and the results from the Monte Carlo (MC) generator GENIE and other phenomenological models of Bodek and Yang, and Cloet et al., has been performed in the context of the MINERνA experiment. The predictions have also been made for the ν¯l-A cross section relevant for the MINERνA experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parametric Study of Panel PCM–Air Heat Exchanger Designs

Heat exchangers, devices for the transfer of heat between two or more working fluids, are extensively used in cooling applications and heating applications. Heat exchangers in buildings are typically components of space-conditioning systems, as well as of water-heating applications. Heat exchangers are also sometimes used in applications that require storage and release of energy at specific times. Phase change materials (PCMs) enhance these heat-exchange processes, given their ability to melt and solidify at a fixed range of temperatures, absorbing or releasing significant amounts of latent heat. Five different configurations of PCM–air heat exchangers for thermal control in buildings are analyzed in this work. The heat exchangers were fitted with PCM encapsulated in plastic and composite pouches of various shapes, and packaged in stackable panel layers. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of coupled incompressible fluid and conjugate heat transfer were performed on the designs. The phase change process was numerically modelled using the apparent heat capacity method. Steady-state CFD simulations provided quantification of pressure drop as a function of air flow velocity. Transient simulation results describe the thermal evolution of PCM in the pouches, helping to determine the best performing configuration with respect to total thermal charging time.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of cementation on the yield surface of rocks numerically determined from digital microstructures

Digital Rock Physics has reached a level of maturity on the characterisation of primary properties that depend on the microstructure – such as porosity, permeability or elastic moduli – by numerically solving field equations on μCT scan images of rock. After small deformations or at depth though, most rocks eventually reach their limit of elasticity and the complementary plastic properties are needed to describe the full mechanical behaviour. Currently, determination of a rock’s yield surface from its microstructure is often restricted to semi-analytical criteria derived by limit analysis or numerical simulations performed on idealised geometries. Such simplification lacks representativeness, particularly for processes that affect directly the pore-grain interface such as the cementation phenomenon, happening during diagenesis. Eventually, only direct numerical simulation of elasto-plasticity performed on digitalised microstructures can be used to assess the strength of different cemented materials and its evolution with the alteration of the microstructure. In this study, we provide a comprehensive parametric study on the impact of cementation on rock strength for real microstructures of cemented granular materials. Compared to most previous studies, the whole yield surface is determined numerically (using Finite Element Method) in order to assess the influence of cementation for different stress-paths. The previously known tendency of rock to strengthen with increasing cementation volume is verified. New results on the influence of cement property namely Young’s modulus, friction and cohesion on the rock’s yield surface are explored. The envelopes obtained are compared to the ones obtained by experimental data and existing models. Finally, the framework presented in this study showcases the wider possibility of determining any rock’s or porous material’s yield surface from its microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the High-Pressure High-Temperature (HPHT) growth of single crystal diamond

A multi-scale, computational model is developed to describe the growth characteristics of single-crystal diamond in the High-Pressure, High-Temperature (HPHT) process. This model is the first to connect phase-change kinetics governing crystal growth to the continuum transport of carbon through the growth cell. Results show the importance of convective transport driven by buoyant flow in the metallic solvent, which increases the growth rate by nearly an order of magnitude over that obtained under diffusion alone. Parametric studies show how crystal growth may be kinetically-limited or transport-limited, depending on the value of the macroscopic kinetic coefficient. Estimating this kinetic coefficient from growth experiments yields a phase-change Damköhler number of unity, indicating a mixed regime where phase-change kinetics and transport are comparable and strongly coupled in this system. Mechanisms responsible for slowing growth as the crystal size increases are explained. Finally, supersaturation inhomogeneities along the facets of larger crystals are predicted, which may be relevant to solvent inclusion formation during growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Accuracy of Variational Quantum Eigensolvers with Fewer Qubits Using Orbital Optimization

Near-term quantum computers will be limited in the number of qubits on which they can process information as well as the depth of the circuits that they can coherently carry out. To date, experimental demonstrations of algorithms such as the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) have been limited to small molecules using minimal basis sets for this reason. In this work we propose incorporating an orbital optimization scheme into quantum eigensolvers wherein a parametrized partial unitary transformation is applied to the basis functions set in order to reduce the number of qubits required for a given problem. The optimal transformation is found by minimizing the ground state energy with respect to this partial unitary matrix. Through numerical simulations of small molecules up to 16 spin orbitals, we demonstrate that this method has the ability to greatly extend the capabilities of near-term quantum computers with regard to the electronic structure problem. Finally, we find that VQE paired with orbital optimization consistently achieves lower ground state energies than traditional VQE when using the same number of qubits and even frequently achieves lower ground state energies than VQE methods using more qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the effect of mixing-driven vaporization in a homogeneous relaxation modeling framework

The homogeneous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid–gas phase transition in multiphase flows due to the occurrence of cavitation. However, in its original formulation, the HRM does not account for the presence of ambient gas species, which generally limits its applicability to the injector's internal flow where ambient gases are negligible. In this work, a mixing-driven vaporization (MDV) model was developed to extend the capability of the HRM in handling the mixing effect in the regions external to the nozzle, where vapor–liquid equilibrium for multi-species mixtures of fuel and ambient gas is considered. Herein, to assess the model performance, simulations of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed with the HRM and the MDV model under both flash-boiling and evaporating conditions. It was found that the MDV model led to a better match against x-ray measurements of fuel density in the near-nozzle region. In contrast to the HRM, the MDV model was able to reproduce the vaporization process in the mixing zone at the edge of the fuel jet, which aligns with the expected physics. This resulted in substantial differences in the prediction of other flow characteristics such as mixture temperature and pressure. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that evaporation timescales have a considerable effect on the MDV model's predictions, as shown by a parametric study in which a time factor was introduced to mimic the effect of different timescales due to different phase change mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗