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SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS1976

The partially averaged field approach to cosmic ray diffusion

The kinetic equation for particles interacting with turbulent fluctuations is derived by a new nonlinear technique which successfully corrects the difficulties associated with quasilinear theory. In this new method the effects of the fluctuations are evaluated along particle orbits which themselves include the effects of a statistically averaged subset of the possible configurations of the turbulence. The new method is illustrated by calculating the pitch angle diffusion coefficient D sub Mu Mu for particles interacting with slab model magnetic turbulence, i.e., magnetic fluctuations linearly polarized transverse to a mean magnetic field. Results are compared with those of quasilinear theory and also with those of Monte Carlo calculations. The major effect of the nonlinear treatment in this illustration is the determination of D sub Mu Mu in the vicinity of 90 deg pitch angles where quasilinear theory breaks down. The spatial diffusion coefficient parallel to a mean magnetic field is evaluated using D sub Mu Mu as calculated by this technique. It is argued that the partially averaged field method is not limited to small amplitude fluctuating fields and is hence not a perturbation theory.

Jones, F. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

GANplifying event samples

A critical question concerning generative networks applied to event generation in particle physics is if the generated events add statistical precision beyond the training sample. We show for a simple example with increasing dimensionality how generative networks indeed amplify the training statistics. We quantify their impact through an amplification factor or equivalent numbers of sampled events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy calibration of germanium detectors for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator was a search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0νββ) in the 76 Ge isotope. It was staged at the 4850-foot level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, SD. The experiment consisted of 58 germanium detectors housed in a low background shield and was calibrated once per week by deploying a 228 Th line source for 1 to 2 hours. The energy scale calibration determination for the detector array was automated using custom analysis tools. We describe the offline procedure for calibration of the Demonstrator germanium detectors, including the simultaneous fitting of multiple spectral peaks, estimation of energy scale uncertainties, and the automation of the calibration procedure.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON TRISO Modeling Advancements and Validation to AGR-1 Data

BISON is a finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code. Among its unique characteristics are its ability to model 1D, 2D, and 3D geometries and its applicability to a wide variety of nuclear fuels. For the last eight years, BISON has included a beginning capability to model tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel. Recently, interest in TRISO fuel has grown, and a significant effort has been made to improve BISON’s capabilities in this area. Capability development has occurred for each material present in TRISO fuel particles: the buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon, silicon carbide, and outer pyrolytic carbon layers, as well as the fuel kernel. New elastic, creep, swelling, thermal expansion, thermal conductivity, and fission gas release (FGR) models are available. New models for the graphite matrix are also now available. Another important addition is the ability to perform statistical failure analysis of large samples of fuel particles. This new capability, which continues to grow, enables evaluation of failure due to pressure or crack formation by analyzing many thousands of particles. This enables realistic calculations of fission product release from the many particles in a TRISO-fueled reactor. These capabilities were checked via regression and verification tests. A large number of code benchmarking problems were also run, showing that BISON’s results closely match those of other software tools. Finally, a significant validation effort was completed in which fission product release, measured as part of the AGR-1 capsule experiments, was compared to BISON outputs. BISON outputs compared very well to the experimental data and to PARFUME results. Interest in BISON’s TRISO capabilities is growing, with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Westinghouse Electric Company receiving training during the past year. Multiple other entities have expressed interest in or are actively using BISON. Kairos Power, LLC, has a strong partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL) regarding the use of BISON for TRISO analysis. While its capabilities still continue to grow, BISON has already become a powerful tool for TRISO analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increased panel height enhances cooling for photovoltaic solar farms

We report solar photovoltaic (PV) systems suffer substantial efficiency loss due to environmental and internal heating. However, increasing the canopy height of these systems promotes surface heat transfer and boosts production. This work represents the first wind tunnel experiments to explore this concept in terms of array flow behavior and relative convective heat transfer, comparing model solar arrays of varied height arrangements - a nominal height, extended height, and a staggered height configuration. Analyses of surface thermocouple data show average Nusselt number (Nu) to increase with array elevation, where panel convection at double height improved up to 1.88 times that of the nominal case. This behavior is an effect of sub-array entrainment of high velocity flow and panel interactions as evidenced through flow statistics and mean kinetic energy budgets on particle image velocimetry (PIV) data. The staggered height arrangement encourages faster sub-panel flow than in the nominal array. Despite sub-array blockage due to the lower panel interaction, heat shedding at panel surfaces promotes improvements on over 1.3 times that of the nominal height case.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Superdiffusion of quantized vortices uncovering scaling laws in quantum turbulence

Significance Quantum turbulence (QT) can appear in the presence of a chaotic tangle of quantized vortices in various quantum-fluid systems, including atomic Bose–Einstein condensates, superfluid helium, superfluid neutron stars, etc. Insights into the generic scaling behaviors of tangled vortices are crucial in developing an advanced statistical model of QT. By tracking tracer particles trapped on vortices in superfluid 4 He, we report the observation of an apparent superdiffusion of the vortices in QT. Our analysis shows that this superdiffusion is not due to Lévy flights, i.e., long-distance hops that are responsible for superdiffusion of random walkers. Instead, a power-law scaling of the vortex–velocity correlation is identified as the cause. This finding may motivate extensive future research on hidden scaling laws in QT.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1969

The fluctuation origin of cosmic radiation.

Cosmic radiation origin in terms of sudden injection of particles in time, momentum and space, considering statistical fluctuations role in observed spectrum

Wayland, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Magnetospheric mapping with a quantitative geomagnetic field model

Mapping the magnetosphere on a dipole geomagnetic field model by projecting field and particle observations onto the model is described. High-latitude field lines are traced between the earth's surface and their intersection with either the equatorial plane or a cross section of the geomagnetic tail, and data from low-altitude orbiting satellites are projected along field lines to the outer magnetosphere. This procedure is analyzed, and the resultant mappings are illustrated. Extension of field lines into the geomagnetic tail and low-altitude determination of the polar cap and cusp are presented. It is noted that while there is good agreement among the various data, more particle measurements are necessary to clear up statistical uncertainties and to facilitate comparison of statistical models.

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Electron acceleration in stochastic double layers

Transversely localized double layers evolve randomly in turbulent regions of strongly magnetized plasma carrying current along the magnetic field. Results from numerical simulations and spacecraft observations in the auroral plasma indicate that the parallel electric field in such regions is microscopically intermittent or stochastic. The implications of stochastic double layer fields on electron acceleration will be discussed in terms of a statistical process involving ensemble averages over test particle motion. A Fokker-Planck equation can be derived for the electron phase space density, which depends on the mean and rms amplitudes of the double layers, the mean double layer density, and the initial electron velocity distribution. It is shown that the resulting electron acceleration is very sensitive to the ratio of the initial electron energy to the rms double layer amplitude. When this ratio is large, the acceleration process differs little from that expected in a dc electric field. When it is small, stochastic heating competes with directed acceleration. Evidence for both cases can be found in the auroral ionosphere in association with so-called inverted-V precipitation and collimated edge precipitation.

Lotko, William↗
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

Krisko, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

SEM-EDS Analyses of Small Craters in Stardust Aluminum Foils: Implications for the Wild-2 Dust Distribution

Aluminium foils were used on Stardust to stabilize the aerogel specimens in the modular collector tray. Part of these foils were fully exposed to the flux of cometary grains emanating from Wild 2. Because the exposed part of these foils had to be harvested before extraction of the aerogel, numerous foil strips some 1.7 mm wide and 13 or 33 mm long were generated during Stardusts's Preliminary Examination (PE). These strips are readily accommodated in their entirety in the sample chambers of modern SEMs, thus providing the opportunity to characterize in situ the size distribution and residue composition - employing EDS methods - of statistically more significant numbers of cometary dust particles compared to aerogel, the latter mandating extensive sample preparation. We describe here the analysis of nearly 300 impact craters and their implications for Wild 2 dust.

Borg, J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D TRISO particle-explicit compact meshing

The TRI-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) layered fuel particle is a robust nuclear fuel form offering enhanced safety and performance for advanced reactor concepts, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV designs. These poppy-seed-sized particles are embedded in a graphite matrix to form fuel elements that must withstand elevated temperatures and high burn-up levels. The heterogeneous nature of these fuel elements — comprising thousands of randomly distributed TRISO particles — produces complex stress fields and thermal gradients that one- and two-dimensional models cannot accurately capture. While three-dimensional modeling has improved predictions of dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport under irradiation, current approaches rely on homogenized material properties that are known to have considerable divergence from experimental observations. This work presents a methodology for optimized random packing of TRISO fuel compacts and full three-dimensional mesh generation within the BISON fuel performance code, with each particle coating layer individually discretized. The resulting mesh was demonstrated through heat conduction simulations under representative in-reactor operating conditions, showing strong agreement with expected behavior. This capability enables detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating layer failures — all of which directly govern fuel performance and safety margins.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differentiating multi-MeV, multi-ion spectra with CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors

The development of high intensity petawatt lasers has created new possibilities for ion acceleration and nuclear fusion using solid targets. In such laser-matter interaction, multiple ion species are accelerated with broad spectra up to hundreds of MeV. To measure ion yields and for species identification, CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors are frequently used. However, these detectors are limited in their applicability for multi-ion spectra differentiation as standard image recognition algorithms can lead to a misinterpretation of data, there is no unique relation between track diameter and particle energy, and there are overlapping pit diameter relationships for multiple particle species. In this report, we address these issues by first developing an algorithm to overcome user bias during image processing. Second, we use calibration of the detector response for protons, carbon and helium ions (alpha particles) from 0.1 to above 10 MeV and measurements of statistical energy loss fluctuations in a forward-fitting procedure utilizing multiple, differently filtered CR-39, altogether enabling high-sensitivity, multi-species particle spectroscopy. To validate this capability, we show that inferred CR-39 spectra match Thomson parabola ion spectrometer data from the same experiment. Filtered CR-39 spectrometers were used to detect, within a background of ~ 2 × 10 11 sr -1 J -1 protons and carbons, (1.3 ± 0.7) × 10 8 sr -1 J -1 alpha particles from laser-driven proton-boron fusion reactions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of electron backscatter diffraction techniques to quantify effects of aging on sub-grain and spatial heterogeneity in NMC cathodes

Identification and evaluation of structural heterogeneity in spent cathode materials is crucial to developing appropriate remediation strategies for novel recycling processes. Native heterogeneities may be exacerbated during the cell's operational lifetime, as sub-particle-scale variations induce anisotropic expansion and contraction upon cycling. Structural transformations resulting from repeated cycling and calendar aging predominantly occur at the secondary particle surface and at the grain boundaries (GBs) between primary particles. However, the diffusion and stress build up around and across GBs are poorly understood. In this study, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is employed to track sub-grain lattice structure across a statistically relevant number of Li(Ni0.33Mn0.33Co0.33)O2 (NMC-111) particles. Specifically, differences in lattice misorientation – measured as the deviation from the grain's average orientation – are tracked as a function of position within the electrode (near current collector, middle, and near separator) and as a function of electrochemical cycling. Further, a novel method of structural analysis is developed, offering insight into sub-grain diffusion behavior by comparing lattice misorientation near the grain boundary versus in the grain bulk. The present results suggest that electrode-scale spatial heterogeneity in lattice structure is induced by initial manufacturing conditions, and that radial gradients in lattice misorientation evolve at the primary particle scale with repeated electrochemical cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative probing of the fast particle motion during the solidification of battery electrodes

Synchrotron x-ray tomography represents one of the most powerful imaging techniques that can visualize the three-dimensional microstructural complexity with a high spatial resolution. To date, however, the temporal resolution of this technique has been handicapped by the intrinsic limitations in the data acquisition speed and the lack of a suitable data processing method. The present study aims to fundamentally resolve this challenge by implementing a data analysis method that is based on differentiating discrete tomography reconstruction from a continuous scan reconstruction. With this methodological development, we capture and quantify the particle motion during the solidification of battery electrodes and reveal the statistics of the dynamically evolving motion in the drying process, which has been challenging to resolve. We discover that the particle motion exhibits a strong dependence on its geometric location within a drying electrode. Our results also imply that the final electrode quality can be controlled by balancing the solvent evaporation rate and the particle mobility in the region close to the drying surface.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗