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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Age Disparity in Palliative Radiation Therapy Among Patients With Advanced Cancer

Purpose/Objective: Palliative radiation therapy represents an important treatment option among patients with advanced cancer, although research shows decreased use among older patients. This study evaluated age-related patterns of palliative radiation use among an elderly Medicare population. Methods and Materials: We identified 63,221 patients with metastatic lung, breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Receipt of palliative radiation therapy was extracted from Medicare claims. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis determined residual age-related disparity in the receipt of palliative radiation therapy after controlling for confounding covariates including age-related differences in patient and demographic covariates, length of life, and patient preferences for aggressive cancer therapy. Results: The use of radiation decreased steadily with increasing patient age. Forty-two percent of patients aged 66 to 69 received palliative radiation therapy. Rates of palliative radiation decreased to 38%, 32%, 24%, and 14% among patients aged 70 to 74, 75 to 79, 80 to 84, and over 85, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that confounding covariates attenuated these findings, although the decreased relative rate of palliative radiation therapy among the elderly remained clinically and statistically significant. On multivariate analysis, compared to patients 66 to 69 years old, those aged 70 to 74, 75 to 79, 80 to 84, and over 85 had a 7%, 15%, 25%, and 44% decreased rate of receiving palliative radiation, respectively (all P<.0001). Conclusions: Age disparity with palliative radiation therapy exists among older cancer patients. Further research should strive to identify barriers to palliative radiation among the elderly, and extra effort should be made to give older patients the opportunity to receive this quality of life-enhancing treatment at the end of life.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗
DOE OSTI2019

Automatic Kalman-filter-based wavelet shrinkage denoising of 1D stellar spectra

We propose a non-parametric method to denoise 1D stellar spectra based on wavelet shrinkage followed by adaptive Kalman thresholding. Wavelet shrinkage denoising involves applying the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to the input signal, ‘shrinking’ certain frequency components in the transform domain, and then applying inverse DWT to the reduced components. The performance of this procedure is influenced by the choice of base wavelet, the number of decomposition levels, and the thresholding function. Typically, these parameters are chosen by ‘trial and error’, which can be strongly dependent on the properties of the data being denoised. We here introduce an adaptive Kalman-filter-based thresholding method that eliminates the need for choosing the number of decomposition levels. We use the ‘Haar’ wavelet basis, which we found to provide excellent filtering for 1D stellar spectra, at a low computational cost. We introduce various levels of Poisson noise into synthetic PHOENIX spectra, and test the performance of several common denoising methods against our own. It proves superior in terms of noise suppression and peak shape preservation. Finally, we expect it may also be of use in automatically and accurately filtering low signal-to-noise galaxy and quasar spectra obtained from surveys such as SDSS, Gaia, LSST, PESSTO, VANDELS, LEGA-C, and DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

The development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines is studied. Injection molding was the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals were to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in four-point loading. Statistically designed experiments were performed throughout the program and a fluid mixing process employing an attritor mixer was developed. Compositional improvements in the amounts and sources of boron and carbon used and a pressureless sintering cycle were developed which provided samples of about 99 percent of theoretical density. Strengths were found to improve significantly by annealing in air. Strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) with Weibull modulus of about 9 were obtained. Further improvements in Weibull modulus to about 16 were realized by proof testing. This is an increase of 86 percent in strength and 100 percent in Weibull modulus over the baseline data generated at the beginning of the program. Molding yields were improved and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. Magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were found to be useful in characterizing the SiC powder and the sintered samples. Turbocharger rotors were molded and examined as an indication of the moldability of the mixes which were developed in this program.

Whalen, Thomas J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Radiation and Risk of Liver, Biliary Tract, and Pancreatic Cancers among Atomic Bomb Survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: 1958–2009

The Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors has consistently demonstrated significant excess radiation-related risks of liver cancer since the first cancer incidence report. Here, we present updated information on radiation risks of liver, biliary tract and pancreatic cancers based on 11 additional years of follow-up since the last report, from 1958 to 2009. The current analyses used improved individual radiation doses and accounted for the effects of alcohol consumption, smoking and body mass index. The study participants included 105,444 LSS participants with known individual radiation dose and no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. Cases were the first primary incident cancers of the liver (including intrahepatic bile duct), biliary tract (gallbladder and other and unspecified parts of biliary tract) or pancreas identified through linkage with population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) associated with DS02R1 doses for liver (liver and biliary tract cancers) or pancreas (pancreatic cancer). We identified 2,016 incident liver cancer cases during the follow-up period. Radiation dose was significantly associated with liver cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.89; EAR per 10,000 person-year Gy: 5.32, 95% CI: 2.49 to 8.51). There was no evidence for curvature in the radiation dose response (P=0.344). ERRs by age-at-exposure categories were significantly increased among those who were exposed at 0–9, 10–19 and 20–29 years, but not significantly increased after age 30 years, although there was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in these ERRs (P = 0.378). The radiation ERRs were not affected by adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption or body mass index. As in previously reported studies, radiation dose was not associated with risk of biliary tract cancer (ERR per Gy: –0.02, 95% CI: –0.25 to 0.30). Radiation dose was associated with a nonsignificant increase in pancreatic cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.38, 95% CI: <0 to 0.83). The increased risk was statistically significant among women (ERR per Gy: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.12 to 1.45), but not among men.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The concept of spin ice graphs and a field theory for their charges

Originally detected in rare earth pyrochlores, spin ice physics is now being artificially extended to a variety of geometries that control collective behavior and exotic properties, making graph theory their proper framework. We relate spin ice notions, such as ice rule, ice manifold, Coulomb phases, charges, and monopoles, to graph-theoretical notions, such as balance, in/out-degrees, and Euler paths. We then propose a field-theoretical treatment in which topological charges and monopoles are the degrees of freedom, while the binary spins are subsumed in an entropic interaction among charges. We show that for a spin ice on a graph in a Gaussian approximation, the kernel of the entropic interaction is the inverse of the graph Laplacian, and we compute screening functions from the graph spectra as Green operators for the screened Poisson problem on a graph. We then apply the treatment to star graphs, tournaments, cycles, and regular spin ice in different dimensions. Our aim is twofold: to set spin ice physics in a proper graph setting, where only topological rather than geometrical notions hold, and to invite graph theorists to contribute their powerful tools to the field of spin ice.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generalized Canonical Polyadic Tensor Decomposition

Tensor decomposition is a fundamental unsupervised machine learning method in data science, with applications including network analysis and sensor data processing. This work develops a generalized canonical polyadic (GCP) low-rank tensor decomposition that allows other loss functions besides squared error. For instance, we can use logistic loss or Kullback--Leibler divergence, enabling tensor decomposition for binary or count data. We present a variety of statistically motivated loss functions for various scenarios. We provide a generalized framework for computing gradients and handling missing data that enables the use of standard optimization methods for fitting the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate the flexibility of the GCP decomposition on several real-world examples including interactions in a social network, neural activity in a mouse, and monthly rainfall measurements in India.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPT-SZ MCMF: an extension of the SPT-SZ catalogue over the DES region

We present an extension to a Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Effect (SZE) selected cluster catalogue based on observations from the South Pole Telescope (SPT); this catalogue extends to lower signal to noise than the previous SPT–SZ catalogue and therefore includes lower mass clusters. Optically derived redshifts, centres, richnesses, and morphological parameters together with catalogue contamination and completeness statistics are extracted using the multicomponent matched filter (MCMF) algorithm applied to the S/N > 4 SPT–SZ candidate list and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) photometric galaxy catalogue. The main catalogue contains 811 sources above S/N = 4, has 91 per cent purity, and is 95 per cent complete with respect to the original SZE selection. It contains in total 50 per cent more clusters and twice as many clusters above z = 0.8 in comparison to the original SPT-SZ sample. The MCMF algorithm allows us to define subsamples of the desired purity with traceable impact on catalogue completeness. As an example, we provide two subsamples with S/N > 4.25 and S/N > 4.5 for which the sample contamination and cleaning-induced incompleteness are both as low as the expected Poisson noise for samples of their size. The subsample with S/N > 4.5 has 98 per cent purity and 96 per cent completeness and is part of our new combined SPT cluster and DES weak-lensing cosmological analysis. We measure the number of false detections in the SPT-SZ candidate list as function of S/N, finding that it follows that expected from assuming Gaussian noise, but with a lower amplitude compared to previous estimates from simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Generating log-normal mock catalog of galaxies in redshift space

We present a public code to generate a mock galaxy catalog in redshift space assuming a log-normal probability density function (PDF) of galaxy and matter density fields. We draw galaxies by Poisson-sampling the log-normal field, and calculate the velocity field from the linearised continuity equation of matter fields, assuming zero vorticity. This procedure yields a PDF of the pairwise velocity fields that is qualitatively similar to that of N-body simulations. We check fidelity of the catalog, showing that the measured two-point correlation function and power spectrum in real space agree with the input precisely. We find that a linear bias relation in the power spectrum does not guarantee a linear bias relation in the density contrasts, leading to a cross-correlation coefficient of matter and galaxies deviating from unity on small scales. We also find that linearising the Jacobian of the real-to-redshift space mapping provides a poor model for the two-point statistics in redshift space. That is, non-linear redshift-space distortion is dominated by non-linearity in the Jacobian. The power spectrum in redshift space shows a damping on small scales that is qualitatively similar to that of the well-known Fingers-of-God (FoG) effect due to random velocities, except that the log-normal mock does not include random velocities. This damping is a consequence of non-linearity in the Jacobian, and thus attributing the damping of the power spectrum solely to FoG, as commonly done in the literature, is misleading.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Clustering of Galaxies in the Completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmic Flows and Cosmic Web from Luminous Red Galaxies

We present a Bayesian phase-space reconstruction of the cosmic large-scale matter density and velocity fields from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III Baryon Oscillations Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 12 CMASS galaxy clustering catalogue. We rely on a given Λ cold dark matter cosmology, a mesh resolution in the range of 6-10 h -1 Mpc, and a lognormal-Poisson model with a redshift-dependent non-linear bias. The bias parameters are derived from the data and a general renormalized perturbation theory approach. We use combined Gibbs and Hamiltonian sampling, implemented in the ARGO code, to iteratively reconstruct the darkmatter density field and the coherent peculiar velocities of individual galaxies, correcting hereby for coherent redshift space distortions. Our tests relying on accurate N-body-based mock galaxy catalogues show unbiased real space power spectra of the non-linear density field up to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 , and vanishing quadrupoles down to r ~ 20 h -1 Mpc. We also demonstrate that the non-linear cosmic web can be obtained from the tidal field tensor based on the Gaussian component of the reconstructed density field. We find that the reconstructed velocities have a statistical correlation coefficient compared to the true velocities of each individual lightcone mock galaxy of r ~ 0.68 including about 10 per cent of satellite galaxies with virial motions (about r = 0.75 without satellites). The power spectra of the velocity divergence agree well with theoretical predictions up to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This work will be especially useful to improve, for example, baryon acoustic oscillation reconstructions, kinematic Sunyaev- Zeldovich, integrated Sachs-Wolfe measurements or environmental studies.

Ata, Metin↗
DOE OSTI2015

Coagulation kinetics beyond mean field theory using an optimised Poisson representation

Binary particle coagulation can be modelled as the repeated random process of the combination of two particles to form a third. The kinetics may be represented by population rate equations based on a mean field assumption, according to which the rate of aggregation is taken to be proportional to the product of the mean populations of the two participants, but this can be a poor approximation when the mean populations are small. However, using the Poisson representation, it is possible to derive a set of rate equations that go beyond mean field theory, describing pseudo-populations that are continuous, noisy, and complex, but where averaging over the noise and initial conditions gives the mean of the physical population. Such an approach is explored for the simple case of a size-independent rate of coagulation between particles. Analytical results are compared with numerical computations and with results derived by other means. In the numerical work, we encounter instabilities that can be eliminated using a suitable “gauge” transformation of the problem [P. D. Drummond, Eur. Phys. J. B 38, 617 (2004)] which we show to be equivalent to the application of the Cameron-Martin-Girsanov formula describing a shift in a probability measure. The cost of such a procedure is to introduce additional statistical noise into the numerical results, but we identify an optimised gauge transformation where this difficulty is minimal for the main properties of interest. For more complicated systems, such an approach is likely to be computationally cheaper than Monte Carlo simulation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Efficient reactive Brownian dynamics

We develop a Split Reactive Brownian Dynamics (SRBD) algorithm for particle simulations of reaction-diffusion systems based on the Doi or volume reactivity model, in which pairs of particles react with a specified Poisson rate if they are closer than a chosen reactive distance. In our Doi model, we ensure that the microscopic reaction rules for various association and dissociation reactions are consistent with detailed balance (time reversibility) at thermodynamic equilibrium. The SRBD algorithm uses Strang splitting in time to separate reaction and diffusion and solves both the diffusion-only and reaction-only subproblems exactly, even at high packing densities. To efficiently process reactions without uncontrolled approximations, SRBD employs an event-driven algorithm that processes reactions in a time-ordered sequence over the duration of the time step. A grid of cells with size larger than all of the reactive distances is used to schedule and process the reactions, but unlike traditional grid-based methods such as reaction-diffusion master equation algorithms, the results of SRBD are statistically independent of the size of the grid used to accelerate the processing of reactions. We use the SRBD algorithm to compute the effective macroscopic reaction rate for both reaction-limited and diffusion-limited irreversible association in three dimensions and compare to existing theoretical predictions at low and moderate densities. We also study long-time tails in the time correlation functions for reversible association at thermodynamic equilibrium and compare to recent theoretical predictions. Finally, we compare different particle and continuum methods on a model exhibiting a Turing-like instability and pattern formation. Our studies reinforce the common finding that microscopic mechanisms and correlations matter for diffusion-limited systems, making continuum and even mesoscopic modeling of such systems difficult or impossible. We also find that for models in which particles diffuse off lattice, such as the Doi model, reactions lead to a spurious enhancement of the effective diffusion coefficients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

TU-EF-204-07: Add Tube Current Modulation to a Low Dose Simulation Tool for CT Systems

Purpose: We extended the capabilities of a low dose simulation tool to model Tube-Current Modulation (TCM). TCM is widely used in clinical practice to reduce radiation dose in CT scans. We expect the tool to be valuable for various clinical applications (e.g., optimize protocols, compare reconstruction techniques and evaluate TCM methods). Methods: The tube current is input as a function of z location, instead of a fixed value. Starting from the line integrals of a scan, a new Poisson noise realization at a lower dose is generated for each view. To validate the new functionality, we compared simulated scans with real scans in image space. Results: First we assessed noise in the difference between the low-dose simulations and the original high-dose scan. When the simulated tube current is a step function of z location, the noise at each segment matches the noise of 3 separate constant-tube-current-simulations. Secondly, with a phantom that forces TCM, we compared a low-dose simulation with an equivalent real low-dose scan. The mean CT number of the simulated scan and the real low-dose scan were 137.7±0.6 and 137.8±0.5 respectively. Furthermore, with 240 ROIs, the noise of the simulated scan and the real low-dose scan were 24.03±0.45 and 23.99±0.43 respectively, and they were not statistically different (2-sample t-test, p-value=0.28). The facts that the noise reflected the trend of the TCM curve, and that the absolute noise measurements were not statistically different validated the TCM function. Conclusion: We successfully added tube-current modulation functionality in an existing low dose simulation tool. We demonstrated that the noise reflected an input tube-current modulation curve. In addition, we verified that the noise and mean CT number of our simulation agreed with a real low dose scan. The authors are all employees of Philips. Yijun Ding is also supported by NIBIB P41EB002035 and NIBIB R01EB000803.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of dissipative inhomogeneous medium on the statistics of the wave intensity

One of the main theoretical points in the theory of wave propagation in random medium is the derivation of closed form equations to describe the statistics of the propagating waves. In particular, in one dimensional problems, the closed form representation of the multiple scattering effects is important since it contributes in understanding such problems like wave localization, backscattering enhancement, and intensity fluctuations. In this the propagation of plane waves in a layer of one-dimensional dissipative random medium is considered. The medium is modeled by a complex permittivity whose real part is a constant representing the absorption. The one dimensional problem is mathematically equivalent to the analysis of a transmission line with randomly perturbed distributed parameters and a single mode lossy waveguide and the results can be used to study the propagation of radio waves through atmosphere and the remote sensing of geophysical media. It is assumed the scattering medium consists of an ensemble of one-dimensional point scatterers randomly positioned in a layer of thickness L with diffuse boundaries. A Poisson impulse process with density lambda is used to model the position of scatterers in the medium. By employing the Markov properties of this process an exact closed form equation of Kolmogorov-Feller type was obtained for the probability density of the reflection coefficient. This equation was solved by combining two limiting cases: (1) when the density of scatterers is small; and (2) when the medium is weakly dissipative. A two variable perturbation method for small lambda was used to obtain solutions valid for thick layers. These solutions are then asymptotically evaluated for small dissipation. To show the effect of dissipation, the mean and fluctuations of the reflected power are obtained. The results were compared with a lossy homogeneous medium and with a lossless inhomogeneous medium and the regions where the effect of absorption is not essential were discussed.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Purely Poisson-based Approach to Estimating Audible Scan Survey Sensitivities

Several endeavors have been made over the years to estimate the sensitivity of audible scan surveys. Some estimates involved certain factors of the background count rate, while others involved calculations utilizing parameters pulled from the normal (Gaussian) distribution, regardless of background count rate. This paper discusses the results of a purely Poisson-based calculational method for the determination of appropriate decision levels and affiliated detection limits associated with health physics audible scan surveys. Comparisons are made to the other approaches and to empirical tests, where available. Although agreement with previous estimates can be had over limited ranges of background count rate, order-of-magnitude differences are possible outside of those ranges. The previous estimates are generally conservative at the higher count rates yet quite nonconservative at the lowest count rates. Several real-life operational examples are provided that illustrate the approach.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hierarchical Statistical 3D ' Atomistic' Simulation of Decanano MOSFETs: Drift-Diffusion, Hydrodynamic and Quantum Mechanical Approaches

When MOSFETs are scaled to deep submicron dimensions the discreteness and randomness of the dopant charges in the channel region introduces significant fluctuations in the device characteristics. This effect, predicted 20 year ago, has been confirmed experimentally and in simulation studies. The impact of the fluctuations on the functionality, yield, and reliability of the corresponding systems shifts the paradigm of the numerical device simulation. It becomes insufficient to simulate only one device representing one macroscopical design in a continuous charge approximation. An ensemble of macroscopically identical but microscopically different devices has to be characterized by simulation of statistically significant samples. The aims of the numerical simulations shift from predicting the characteristics of a single device with continuous doping towards estimating the mean values and the standard deviations of basic design parameters such as threshold voltage, subthreshold slope, transconductance, drive current, etc. for the whole ensemble of 'atomistically' different devices in the system. It has to be pointed out that even the mean values obtained from 'atomistic' simulations are not identical to the values obtained from continuous doping simulations. In this paper we present a hierarchical approach to the 'atomistic' simulation of aggressively scaled decanano MOSFETs. A full scale 3D drift-diffusion'atomostic' simulation approach is first described and used for verification of the more economical, but also more restricted, options. To reduce the processor time and memory requirements at high drain voltage we have developed a self-consistent option based on a thin slab solution of the current continuity equation only in the channel region. This is coupled to the Poisson's equation solution in the whole simulation domain in the Gummel iteration cycles. The accuracy of this approach is investigated in comparison with the full self-consistent solution. At low drain voltage only single solution of the nonlinear Poisson equation is sufficient to extract the current with satisfactory accuracy. A pilot version of a hydrodynamic 'atomistic' simulator has been developed in order to study the effect of the nonequilibrium, non local transport in decanano MOSFETs on the random dopant induced current fluctuations. For the first time we have also applied the density gradient approach in 3D to investigate the effect of the quantum confinement on the threshold voltage fluctuations. The developed 'atomistic' simulation techniques have been applied to study various fluctuation resistant MOSFET architectures including epitaxial and delta doped devices.

Asenov, Asen↗
DOE OSTI2022

Density reconstruction in convergent high-energy-density systems using x-ray radiography and Bayesian inference

X-ray radiography is a technique frequently used to diagnose convergent high-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion implosion, and provides unique information that is not available through self-emission measurements. In this work, we investigate the scope and limits of that information using a radiography simulation combined with the Bayesian inference workflow. The accuracy of density reconstruction from simulated radiographs of spherical implosions driven with 27 kJ laser energy is assessed, including the increase or decrease in accuracy due to the addition of Lagrangian marker layers, Poisson noise, and improved prior information. This work is the first to present the full uncertainty distributions inferred from radiography analysis in HED systems and demonstrates the importance of constructing the full posterior probability density, as opposed to a point estimate, due to the modal structure of the likelihood surface introduced by typical experimental noise sources. This general methodology can be used both for robust analysis of radiographic data and for an improved design of radiography experiments by modeling the full experimental system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Average and dispersion of the luminosity-redshift relation in the concordance model

Starting from the luminosity-redshift relation recently given up to second order in the Poisson gauge, we calculate the effects of the realistic stochastic background of perturbations of the so-called concordance model on the combined light-cone and ensemble average of various functions of the luminosity distance, and on their variance, as functions of redshift. We apply a gauge-invariant light-cone averaging prescription which is free from infrared and ultraviolet divergences, making our results robust with respect to changes of the corresponding cutoffs. Our main conclusions, in part already anticipated in a recent letter for the case of a perturbation spectrum computed in the linear regime, are that such inhomogeneities not only cannot avoid the need for dark energy, but also cannot prevent, in principle, the determination of its parameters down to an accuracy of order 10{sup −3}−10{sup −5}, depending on the averaged observable and on the regime considered for the power spectrum. However, taking into account the appropriate corrections arising in the non-linear regime, we predict an irreducible scatter of the data approaching the 10% level which, for limited statistics, will necessarily limit the attainable precision. The predicted dispersion appears to be in good agreement with current observational estimates of the distance-modulus variance due to Doppler and lensing effects (at low and high redshifts, respectively), and represents a challenge for future precision measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗