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Some climatological variables for TOGA-COARE domains - 1985-1990

Results are presented of the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) conducted in the western Pacific, with particular attention given to the atmospheric component of the experiment. The climatological variables explored are the mean sea level pressure, precipitable water, sea surface-air temperature difference, zonal wind component at 200 mb and 10 m, vertical motion at 500 mb, and precipitation rates. The paper provides some of the large-scale flow patterns in which other circulation features reside. Results are presented for three of the TOGA-COARE domains bounded by the following: (1) the Upper Air Network, 30 deg N-30 deg S, 90 deg E-70 deg W; (2) the Large-Scale Array, 10 deg N-10 deg S, 140 deg E-180 deg; and (3) the Equatorial Synoptic Array, 5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg E-180 deg.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Monitoring of the effects of fire in North American boreal forests using ERS SAR imagery

ERS synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery represents a tool for monitoring the effects of fires in boreal regions. Fire-scar signatures from ERS SAR collected over Canada and Alaska are presented. The temporal variability exhibited throughout the growing season is underlined. The investigation showed that these signatures have a seasonal trend related to the patterns of soil moisture originating from snow melts in the spring and precipitation during the growing season. These signatures appear in all the regions of the North American boreal forest and remain visible for up to 13 years after a fire.

Kasischke, E. S.↗

On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM - Part 1

This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Coupled Models↗

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability – the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

Drought monitoring↗

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability - the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

agriculture↗

Real-time, Quasi-Global, Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis Using TRMM and other Satellite Observations

A TRMM-based 3-hr analyses that use TRMM observations to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map is described. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) in 2003 as part of Version 6 of the TRMM products. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 N-500S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) products are outlined. The outcome in the near future should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including 3-hourly analyses over the globe. These technique developments are potential prototypes for analyses with the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Adler, Robert F.↗

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗

Quasi-relativistic electron precipitation due to interactions with coherent VLF waves in the magnetosphere

The equations of motion for the cyclotron resonance interaction between coherent whistler mode waves and energetic particles are rederived with the inclusion of relativistic effects. The pitch angle scattering of the near-loss-cone quasi-relativistic electrons trapped in the magnetosphere is studied using a test particle method employing these relativistic equations, and the precipitated energy spectrum due to the wave-induced perturbations of a full distribution of particles is computed. Results show that the full width at half maximum peak width of the rms scattering pattern of the near-loss-cone particles would give an upper bound to the peak width of the associated precipitated energy spectrum under the conditions of moderate wave intensities in the low L shell region. In addition, it is found that the peak widths are within the upper limit values measured by recent satellite experiments. It is concluded that interactions of inner radiation belt particles with monochromatic waves could produce precipitated fluxes with relatively sharp spectral widths, and that therefore the L-dependent narrow peaks observed by low altitude satellite particle detectors could be caused by such interactions.

Chang, H. C.↗

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗

Passive microwave remote sensing of rainfall with SSM/I: Algorithm development and implementation

A physically based algorithm sensitive to emission and scattering is used to estimate rainfall using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). The algorithm is derived from radiative transfer calculations through an atmospheric cloud model specifying vertical distributions of ice and liquid hydrometeors as a function of rain rate. The algorithm is structured in two parts: SSM/I brightness temperatures are screened to detect rainfall and are then used in rain-rate calculation. The screening process distinguishes between nonraining background conditions and emission and scattering associated with hydrometeors. Thermometric temperature and polarization thresholds determined from the radiative transfer calculations are used to detect rain, whereas the rain-rate calculation is based on a linear function fit to a linear combination of channels. Separate calculations for ocean and land account for different background conditions. The rain-rate calculation is constructed to respond to both emission and scattering, reduce extraneous atmospheric and surface effects, and to correct for beam filling. The resulting SSM/I rain-rate estimates are compared to three precipitation radars as well as to a dynamically simulated rainfall event. Global estimates from the SSM/I algorithm are also compared to continental and shipboard measurements over a 4-month period. The algorithm is found to accurately describe both localized instantaneous rainfall events and global monthly patterns over both land and ovean. Over land the 4-month mean difference between SSM/I and the Global Precipitation Climatology Center continental rain gauge database is less than 10%. Over the ocean, the mean difference between SSM/I and the Legates and Willmott global shipboard rain gauge climatology is less than 20%.

Ferriday, James G.↗

Multiple contrail streamers observed by radar

An unusual case of multiple streamers or filaments with the characteristic mare's tail pattern in vertical section has been observed by radar where the generating elements were condensation trails laid by high-altitude aircraft. The contrails were laid perpendicular to the wind, and, as they drifted, a multitude of streamers formed along each trail. The streamers extended from 9 km to the ground. RHI and PPI photographs at X and S band taken over a 2-hr period show the three-dimensional shape of the streamers due to the wind shear. Doppler measurements were also taken. The resulting velocity spectra are very narrow indicating little or no turbulence. Reflectivity factors were measured at various altitudes and show a decrease in reflectivity with distance from the generating line. Fall velocities based on the slopes of the streamer patterns varied from 0.4 to 1.4 m/sec. In general, the characteristics of the precipitation streamers were quite similar to those previously measured in naturally occurring cloud forms such as cirrus uncinus.

Konrad, T. G.↗

Direct satellite observations on bremsstrahlung radiation as a technique to investigate its role in meteorological processes

It was suggested that bremsstrahlung radiation associated with strong auroras (in turn associated with geomagnetic disturbances) may cause increased ionization near the 300-millibar level, which, in turn, leads to the formation of cirrus clouds. These clouds could modify the outgoing black body radiation rates and influence weather patterns. The first satellite observations on bremsstrahlung radiation produced in the atmosphere by precipitating energetic electrons are discussed. This type of observation affords the possibility of directly monitoring the bremsstrahlung energy input to the lower atmosphere over large segments of earth and at frequent intervals. Detailed measurements on the spatial and energy distributions of the bremsstrahlung radiation are feasible with present techniques, and satellite data on widespread bremsstrahlung events are presented and discussed. From comparison of the ion production rates from cosmic rays with those calculated from bremsstrahlung from precipitating energetic electrons, it is concluded that bremsstrahlung radiation is a negligible contributor to the ionization near the 300-millibar level.

Johnson, R. G.↗

Atmospheres of the Giant Planets

The giant planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, are fluid objects. They have no solid surfaces because the light elements constituting them do not condense at solar-system temperatures. Instead, their deep atmospheres grade downward until the distinction between gas and liquid becomes meaningless. The preceding chapter delved into the hot, dark interiors of the Jovian planets. This one focuses on their atmospheres, especially the observable layers from the base of the clouds to the edge of space. These veneers arc only a few hundred kilometers thick, less than one percent of each planet's radius, but they exhibit an incredible variety of dynamic phenomena. The mixtures of elements in these outer layers resemble a cooled-down piece of the Sun. Clouds precipitate out of this gaseous soup in a variety of colors. The cloud patterns are organized by winds, which are powered by heat derived from sunlight (as on Earth) and by internal heat left over from planetary formation. Thus the atmospheres of the Jovian planets are distinctly different both compositionally and dynamically from those of the terrestrial planets. Such differences make them fascinating objects for study, providing clues about the origin and evolution of the planets and the formation of the solar system.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

Blowing Snow Sublimation and Transport over Antarctica from 11 Years of CALIPSO Observations

Blowing snow processes commonly occur over the earth's ice sheets when the 10 mile wind speed exceeds a threshold value. These processes play a key role in the sublimation and redistribution of snow thereby influencing the surface mass balance. Prior field studies and modeling results have shown the importance of blowing snow sublimation and transport on the surface mass budget and hydrological cycle of high-latitude regions. For the first time, we present continent-wide estimates of blowing snow sublimation and transport over Antarctica for the period 2006-2016 based on direct observation of blowing snow events. We use an improved version of the blowing snow detection algorithm developed for previous work that uses atmospheric backscatter measurements obtained from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) satellite. The blowing snow events identified by CALIPSO and meteorological fields from MERRA-2 are used to compute the blowing snow sublimation and transport rates. Our results show that maximum sublimation occurs along and slightly inland of the coastline. This is contrary to the observed maximum blowing snow frequency which occurs over the interior. The associated temperature and moisture reanalysis fields likely contribute to the spatial distribution of the maximum sublimation values. However, the spatial pattern of the sublimation rate over Antarctica is consistent with modeling studies and precipitation estimates. Overall, our results show that the 2006-2016 Antarctica average integrated blowing snow sublimation is about 393 +/- 196 Gt yr(exp -1), which is considerably larger than previous model-derived estimates. We find maximum blowing snow transport amount of 5 Mt km-1 yr(exp -1) over parts of East Antarctica and estimate that the average snow transport from continent to ocean is about 3.7 Gt yr(exp -1). These continent-wide estimates are the first of their kind and can be used to help model and constrain the surface mass budget over Antarctica.

Antarctica Sublimation Ice-sheet↗

Multispectral observations of the Jovian aurora

The upper atmospheres of the Earth and the outer planets form a screen on which precipitating charged particles, like the electron beam in a television, trace fleeting, but revealing patterns of visible, ultraviolet, infrared, and x ray emissions that offer valuable clues to processes occurring within the planetary magnetospheres. At Earth, years of in situ measurements, as well as ground based observations, have yielded a picture (still fuzzy) where the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere of the Earth provides a complex path for the storage and release of energy during magnetic substorms; the ultimate manifestation of terrestrial auroral processes. More recent global imaging of substorm events from high above the Earth (greater than 3.5 R(sub e)) by Dynamics Explorer have made a unique contribution towards understanding the global and temporal evolution of such auroral events by providing a morphological perspective and by providing the crucial observational link that allows the separation of spatial and temporal variations inherent in the interpretation of in situ data. A similar role was played by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) during the recent encounter of Ulysses with Jupiter in helping to define a new paradigm in Jovian auroral physics. The old paradigm portrayed Jupiter's magnetosphere as totally dominated by internal processes (i.e. Io related tori, heavy ions, etc.) where energetic heavy ion precipitation in the inner magnetosphere was solely responsible for the observed auroral phenomena. Ulysses and HST portray a more Earth-like paradigm where electron acceleration in the outer magnetosphere near the boundary with the solar wind plays a distinct role in the formation of auroral hot spots, yet energetic heavy ions also enter into the picture (similar to the role of the energetic ions from the terrestrial ring current during magnetic substorms). These heavy ions as a result of excitation during their transit through the atmosphere produce the x ray emissions observed in Roentgensatellit (ROSAT) x ray energy spectra.

Source record↗

Advanced electromagnetic methods for aerospace vehicles

During this period the research program addressed the following three topics: (1) composite materials; (2) precipitation static (P-Static); and (3) antenna technology. On the topic of Composite Materials our main efforts were directed toward making measurements on several new samples of composite materials made available to ASU by Stanford Research Institute (SRI) through the efforts of Mr. Frank Casler of AVRADA. These samples can be classified into three distinct materials with each material having its own distinct electrical properties. In addition, attempts were made to make predictions of the effects on antenna patterns by composite materials. This will take a greater emphasis in the next reporting period. In Precipitation Static (P-Static), the main effort was devoted toward developing a Voltage Finite-Difference Time-Domain computer code to account for the voltage variation on a conducting body as the primary source of corona discharge, instead of the electric field. Due to complexities stemming from the interactions between the potentials, the fields, and current sources, the decision was made to begin with a simple two-dimensional problem without the corona discharge and check our programs in a series of simple models, culminating in the full corona discharge problem. This report deals with the first stage of such development. During this reporting period, the main effort in Antenna Technology was toward the design, fabrication, and testing of a cavity-backed slot antenna using ferrite material. Using the ferrite material available to us during this period, the resonances of this antenna were around 5 and 8 GHz. Attempts will be made to model such an antenna and to lower its resonance down into the VHF and UHF bands.

Balanis, Constantine A.↗