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At least 325 records · Page 18

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip↗

Certification methodology applied to the NASA experimental radar system

The objective of the research is to apply selected FAA certification techniques to the NASA experimental wind shear radar system. Although there is no intent to certify the NASA system, the procedures developed may prove useful to manufacturers that plan to undergo the certification process. The certification methodology for forward-looking wind shear detection radars will require estimation of system performance in several FAA-specified microburst/clutter scenarios as well as the estimation of probabilities of missed and false hazard alerts under general operational conditions. Because of the near-impossibility of obtaining these results experimentally, analytical and simulation approaches must be used. Hazard detection algorithms were developed that derived predictive estimates of aircraft hazard from basic radar measurements of weather reflectivity and radial wind velocity. These algorithms were designed to prevent false alarms due to ground clutter while providing accurate predictions of hazard to the aircraft due to weather. A method of calculation of the probability of missed and false hazard alerts has been developed that takes into account the effect of the various algorithms used in the system and provides estimates of the probability of missed and false alerts per microburst encounter under weather conditions found at Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando. Simulation techniques have been developed that permit the proper merging of radar ground clutter data (obtained from flight tests) with simulated microburst data (obtained from microburst models) to estimate system performance using the microburst/clutter scenarios defined by the FAA.

Britt, Charles L.↗

Vectorizable multigrid algorithms for transonic flow calculations

The analysis and incorporation into a multigrid scheme of several vectorizable algorithms are discussed. Von Neumann analyses of vertical line, horizontal line, and alternating direction ZEBRA algorithms were performed; and the results were used to predict their multigrid damping rates. The algorithms were then successfully implemented in a transonic conservative full-potential computer program. The convergence acceleration effect of multiple grids is shown and the convergence rates of the vectorizable algorithms are compared to the convergence rates of standard successive line overrelaxation (SLOR) algorithms.

Melson, N. D.↗

Vectorizable multigrid algorithms for transonic-flow calculations

The analysis and the incorporation into a multigrid scheme of several vectorizable algorithms are discussed. von Neumann analyses of vertical-line, horizontal-line, and alternating-direction ZEBRA algorithms were performed; and the results were used to predict their multigrid damping rates. The algorithms were then successfully implemented in a transonic conservative full-potential computer program. The convergence acceleration effect of multiple grids is shown, and the convergence rates of the vectorizable algorithms are compared with those of standard successive-line overrelaxation (SLOR) algorithms.

Melson, N. D.↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configuration for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗

Supercomputer implementation of finite element algorithms for high speed compressible flows

Prediction of compressible flow phenomena using the finite element method is of recent origin and considerable interest. Two shock capturing finite element formulations for high speed compressible flows are described. A Taylor-Galerkin formulation uses a Taylor series expansion in time coupled with a Galerkin weighted residual statement. The Taylor-Galerkin algorithms use explicit artificial dissipation, and the performance of three dissipation models are compared. A Petrov-Galerkin algorithm has as its basis the concepts of streamline upwinding. Vectorization strategies are developed to implement the finite element formulations on the NASA Langley VPS-32. The vectorization scheme results in finite element programs that use vectors of length of the order of the number of nodes or elements. The use of the vectorization procedure speeds up processing rates by over two orders of magnitude. The Taylor-Galerkin and Petrov-Galerkin algorithms are evaluated for 2D inviscid flows on criteria such as solution accuracy, shock resolution, computational speed and storage requirements. The convergence rates for both algorithms are enhanced by local time-stepping schemes. Extension of the vectorization procedure for predicting 2D viscous and 3D inviscid flows are demonstrated. Conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of the finite element procedures for realistic problems that require hundreds of thousands of nodes.

Thornton, E. A.↗

RApid Blade and Blade-Vortex InTeraction (RABBIT) Reimagined: Algorithm Improvement and User-Friendly Interface Implementation

Rotorcraft noise source identification and reduction is crucial to the emergence of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market. One key rotor noise source is Blade Vortex Interaction (BVI), caused by the rotor blades interacting with the rotor wake. The low-fidelity RApid Blade and Blade-Vortex InTeraction (RABBIT) tool was created to predict the location and characteristics of BVI noise. RABBIT enables engineers to quickly design and simulate UAM configurations and understand BVI occurrences for a desired flight condition. Furthermore, RABBIT can also identify the time and location of blade overlap for coaxial rotors. RABBIT is not a general acoustic prediction tool, but instead utilizes vortex and wake parameters to visualize and predict BVI aerodynamics. RABBIT algorithm has been further developed including reduction of computational time, accounting for BVI source time arrival, improved vortex strength modeling, and BVI impulse factor. A user-friendly app is presented with the intent of bringing RABBIT to the masses to allow engineers from various educational backgrounds to design and begin to understand BVI. Furthermore, RABBIT capabilities are highlighted by a parameter study highlighting key parameters that impact BVIalong with highlighting RABBIT’s ability to identify BVI occurrences from other rotors.

RApid↗

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.

MacNeice, Peter↗

An economical semi-analytical orbit theory for micro-computer applications

An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J2 through J4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semimajor axis (retarded motion) with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory has been implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.

Gordon, R. A.↗

Analyzing Non Stationary Processes in Radiometers

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory for many scientific and engineering applications. Non linear effects of the observation methodology is one of the most perplexing aspects to modeling non stationary processes. This perplexing problem was encountered when modeling the effect of non stationary receiver fluctuations on the performance of radiometer calibration architectures. Existing modeling approaches were found not applicable; particularly problematic is modeling processes across scales over which they begin to exhibit non stationary behavior within the time interval of the calibration algorithm. Alternatively, the radiometer output is modeled as samples from a sequence random variables; the random variables are treated using a conditional probability distribution function conditioned on the use of the variable in the calibration algorithm. This approach of treating a process as a sequence of random variables with non stationary stochastic moments produce sensible predictions of temporal effects of calibration algorithms. To test these model predictions, an experiment using the Millimeter wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) was conducted. The MIR with its two black body calibration references was configured in a laboratory setting to observe a third ultra-stable reference (CryoTarget). The MIR was programmed to sequentially sample each of the three references in approximately a 1 second cycle. Data were collected over a six-hour interval. The sequence of reference measurements form an ensemble sample set comprised of a series of three reference measurements. Two references are required to estimate the receiver response. A third reference is used to estimate the uncertainty in the estimate. Typically, calibration algorithms are designed to suppress the non stationary effects of receiver fluctuations. By treating the data sequence as an ensemble collection, it is possible to apply temporal algorithms which exacerbate the non stationary effects. By varying the algorithm, information about the properties of the non stationary receiver fluctuations is obtained. Comparisons of analytical calculations and statistical analysis of data demonstrate impressive agreement.

Racette, Paul↗

An economical semi-analytical orbit theory for micro-computer applications

An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J sub 2 through J sub 4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semi-axis (retarded motion); with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of the Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as: an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J sub 2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory was implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.

Gordon, R. A.↗

Self-tuning Generalized Predictive Control applied to terrain following flight

Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) describes an algorithm for the control of dynamic systems in which a control input is generated which minimizes a quadratic cost function consisting of a weighted sum of errors between desired and predicted future system output and future predicted control increments. The output predictions are obtained from an internal model of the plant dynamics. Self-tuning GPC refers to an implementation of the GPC algorithm in which the parameters of the internal model(s) are estimated on-line and the predictive control law tuned to the parameters so identified. The self-tuning GPC algorithm is applied to a problem of rotorcraft longitudinal/vertical terrain-following flight. The ability of the algorithm to tune to the initial vehicle parameters and to successfully adapt to a stability augmentation failure is demonstrated. Flight path performance is compared to a conventional, classically designed flight path control system.

Hess, R. A.↗

Soil Salinity Level Assessment and Prediction Integrating UAV-borne Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning Algorithms to Combat Desertification

In response to the ongoing global food crisis, the United Nations has identified “Zero Hunger” as one of its Sustainable Development Goals. A central contributor to the crisis is the process in which agricultural lands go through desertification. Research has shown a direct correlation between soil salinity and desertification - increased salinity levels indicate a higher risk for desertification. Furthermore, researchers have explored various techniques to map soil salinity, but these methods are oftentimes inefficient and don’t address future salinity predictions. To improve desertification monitoring, soil salinity can be observed via hyperspectral imaging on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to predict the risk of agricultural desertification using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques. A significant gap exists in past research that applies ML and imaging techniques to soil salinity: convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and regression models are rarely leveraged together, despite the efficiency and accuracy of these models. To compensate for this gap, the proposed system leverages the use of these AI and ML models to improve soil assessment and prediction techniques. This approach involves three steps - data collection, image analysis, and future prediction. Using hyperspectral cameras on UAVs to collect the data from the region, a trained CNN model will output estimated soil salinity levels at a specific time. The estimations will then be analyzed by a regression model to assess the accuracy of future soil salinity predictions. The proposed system will identify regions at risk of desertification to help farmers mitigate agricultural loss, in turn helping alleviate the food crisis.

UAV systems↗

An Integrated Centroid Finding and Particle Overlap Decomposition Algorithm for Stereo Imaging Velocimetry

An integrated algorithm for decomposing overlapping particle images (multi-particle objects) along with determining each object s constituent particle centroid(s) has been developed using image analysis techniques. The centroid finding algorithm uses a modified eight-direction search method for finding the perimeter of any enclosed object. The centroid is calculated using the intensity-weighted center of mass of the object. The overlap decomposition algorithm further analyzes the object data and breaks it down into its constituent particle centroid(s). This is accomplished with an artificial neural network, feature based technique and provides an efficient way of decomposing overlapping particles. Combining the centroid finding and overlap decomposition routines into a single algorithm allows us to accurately predict the error associated with finding the centroid(s) of particles in our experiments. This algorithm has been tested using real, simulated, and synthetic data and the results are presented and discussed.

McDowell, Mark↗

Control Effector Unsaturation Modification to the Cascading Generalized Inverse Control Allocation Algorithm

Control allocation has sufficiently progressed such that it is used in front-line fighter aircraft such as the F-18Superhornet and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Published literature shows the F-35 utilizes Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion in conjunction with an Effector Blender that incorporates the Cascading Generalized Inverse control allocation algorithm. While the Cascading Generalized Inverse algorithm is one of the premier generalized inverse methods, it does suffer from three deficiencies. In particular, it suffers from an inability to achieve some desired outcomes, it intermittently provides non-optimal solutions and generally fails to preserve moment direction near maximal achievable moments. An effector unsaturation method based on a Scalar Difference Quadratic was first introduced and implemented on the iterative Prediction Method control allocation algorithm which was shown to consistently achieve optimal (weighted) control allocation solutions throughout the entire Attainable Moment Set while preserving desired moment direction. In this paper, the shortcomings of the Cascading Generalized Inverse algorithm are addressed by augmenting the baseline algorithm with Scalar Difference Quadratic unsaturation identification and location at each iteration. Numerical case studies demonstrate that the Modified Cascading Generalized Inverse algorithm resolves the aforementioned deficiencies.

Michael J Acheson↗

Predicting Air Traffic Management Initiatives Using Supervised Learning

Terminal Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are implemented to manage excess demand or lowered capacity at an airport. Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists identify situations such as aviation constraints, current and forecasted weather conditions, airport demand and capacity, and initiate TMIs for safe and orderly movement of air traffic. In this paper, we outline supervised learning techniques that can be used to predict and recommend TMIs at an airport based on current weather and airport conditions. Our research involves building classic Machine Learning (ML) models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest and XGBoost, as well as Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We trained the models on 3-year historical data (weather, airport demand, capacity and TMIs) from Newark (EWR) airport which was selected based on its higher TMI implementation rates and varied weather conditions. Although Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms are able to predict if a TMI is needed or not, they have difficulty in predicting specific program type. For this purpose, we found that LSTM time-series forecasting models performed better as they also learn from past TMI program type sequences. This study also lays down the foundation for advanced modeling techniques and architectures to predict TMIs in advance for future periods. The ability to predict TMIs in advance will be highly beneficial to the traffic controllers and managers as this will help them to prepare for and manage TMIs more efficiently.

Manoj Agrawal↗