Phenomenological analysis of reactive scattering.
Angular distribution of reactive elastic scattering analyzed by opacity function /reaction probability/
Bernstein, R. B.↗
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Calculation of compressible nonadiabatic boundary layers in laminar, transitional and turbulent flow by the method of integral relations
A computer program was developed to do the calculations for two-dimensional or axisymmetric configurations from low speeds to hypersonic speeds with arbitrary streamwise pressure, temperature, and Mach number distributions. Options are provided for obtaining initial conditions either from experimental information or from a theoretical similarity solution. The transition region can be described either by an arbitrary distribution of intermittency or by a function based on Emmons' probability theory. Correlations were developed for use in estimating the parameters of the theoretical intermittency function. Correlations obtained from other sources are used for estimating the transition point. Comparisons were made between calculated and measured boundary layer quantities for laminar, transitional, and turbulent flows on flat plates, cones, cone flares, and a waisted body of revolution. Excellent agreement was obtained between the present theory and two other theories based on the method of finite differences. The intermittency required to reproduce some experimental heat transfer results in hypersonic flow was found to be quite different from the theoretical function. It is suggested that the simple probability theory of Emmons may not be valid for representing the intermittency of hypersonic transitional boundary layers and that the program could be useful as a tool for detailed study of the intermittency of the transition region.
Kuhn, G. D.↗
NASA B-57B Severe Storms Flight Program
Plots of winds encountered in-flight are presented for a severe turbulence case from JAWS flight 7 (near Denver on the afternoon of July 15, 1982). During the flight the B-57B showed a 30-knot increase in airspeed over a distance of about 426 ft and then a more gradual decrease of 40 to 50 knots over a distance of about 3.2 miles. This suspected outflow feature was associated with downdraft in excess of 20 knots. The horizontal wind direction changed almost 180 deg during the pass through the feature, and the intensity of velocity differences decreased for all three components within the downdraft. Calculated probability density functions for u, v, and w showed a jagged character; and distributions for Delta-u, Delta-v, and Delta-w were distinctly non-Gaussian. Based on skewness and kurtosis values, the data could probably best be modeled by a Pearson type VII (Student's t) distribution.
Painter, W. D.↗
Test particle calculations of pick-up ions in the vicinity of Comet Giacobini-Zinner
Ionization of cometary neutral molecules produces ions which are picked-up by the solar wind. The cometary ion pick-up process for Comet Giacobini-Zinner is studied using a test particle method in which trajectories are numerically calculated for several thousand ions whose initial locations were chosen randomly with probability proportional to the neutral density. The cometary ion distribution function was calculated at several locations upstream of the bow shock. Several types of magnetic fluctuations were included. Circularly and linearly polarized monochromatic waves result in less pitch-angle scattering of pick-up ions than turbulent fluctuations which have about the same amplitude. Some anisotropy remains in the distribution function just upstream of the shock, even for the turbulent fluctuations.
Cravens, T. E.↗
OB associations and giant molecular clouds in the galaxy
Giant molecular clouds (GMC's) are the sites of all OB star formation in the Galaxy. These OB stars typically form in large associations and photoionize the surrounding gas, eventually destroying the clouds from which they were born. CO surveys have revealed the distribution of GMC's in the Galaxy, and radio observations provide data on the distribution of associations. These results are extrapolated to determine Galactic mean distribution functions of each and then combined to determine how GMC's and OB associations are correlated. The resulting probability distribution of luminosity given cloud mass implies that although most of the molecular mass of the Galaxy is in massive star forming complexes, a large number of clouds above which massive star formation is extremely likely and abundant and below which it is almost certainly absent.
Williams, Jonathan↗
Stochastic decision analysis
Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given amount of the best score. Formulas are also derived for the probability that one concept's total score is within a given amount of a second concept's total score. These probabilistic calculations provide more realistic data entry and output information for designers, enabling designers to better determine which concepts to eliminate and which concepts to retain at the decision points of each design phase.
Lacksonen, Thomas A.↗
TURBOMAT: A Probabilistic Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool
An integration of aeroelastic analysis procedures with probabilistic analysis methods enables us to design safe reliable engines with quantified reliability. Towards this goal, a graphical user interface (GUI) based tool that integrates the codes Aeroelastic analysis of propfans (ASTROP2) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) is developed. The tool entitled TURBOMachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool (TURBOMAT), is developed utilizing the MATrix Laboratory (Matlab) Guide (Graphical User Interface Development) tool box. TURBOMAT provides a user friendly computational environment for rapid assessment of Turbomachinery blades flutter characteristics, subjected to uncertain loading conditions with variability in material and aerodynamic properties. The tool is seen as an education tool for new students and young engineers starting their careers in structural Aeroelasticity who want to learn and understand aeroelastic aspects of turbomachinery components, fans, compressors and turbines, including uncertainties in loading and material properties.A typical fan blade configuration geometry was chosen to demonstrate the tool. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF), the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and sensitivity factors. Both first order fast probability integration (FPI) and the Monto Carlo (MC) techniques are used in the analysis and compared. The tool enabled us to quantify blade flutter reliability as well as the ranking of uncertain variables and their importance to blade flutter response.
Aeroelastic Analysis↗
Activated recombinative desorption: A potential component in mechanisms of spacecraft glow
The concept of activated recombination of atomic species on surfaces can explain the production of vibrationally and translationally excited desorbed molecular species. Equilibrium statistical mechanics predicts that the molecular quantum state distributions of desorbing molecules is a function of surface temperature only when the adsorption probability is unity and independent of initial collision conditions. In most cases, the adsorption probability is dependent upon initial conditions such as collision energy or internal quantum state distribution of impinging molecules. From detailed balance, such dynamical behavior is reflected in the internal quantum state distribution of the desorbing molecule. This concept, activated recombinative desorption, may offer a common thread in proposed mechanisms of spacecraft glow. Using molecular beam techniques and equipment available at Los Alamos, which includes a high translational energy 0-atom beam source, mass spectrometric detection of desorbed species, chemiluminescence/laser induced fluorescence detection of electronic and vibrationally excited reaction products, and Auger detection of surface adsorbed reaction products, a fundamental study of the gas surface chemistry underlying the glow process is proposed.
Cross, J. B.↗
Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws
Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.
Bogdan, V. M.↗
Effect of Latitude Bias in Entry Angle on Ground Casualty Risk from Naturally Decaying Space Objects
An improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from naturally decaying space objects is the refinement to the distribution of entry angle at the entry interface as a function of latitude. Previous analyses were based on an assumed "small angle," typically -0.1°, and entry interface at the equator. This study expands on work by Bacon and Matney that indicated there is significant latitude bias in the location of reentries, compared to prior assumptions of equal temporal probability. A new model has been developed, which describes the distribution of entry angle as a function of orbital inclination and argument of latitude. This model has been used to generate inputs for ODPO’s certified reentry survivability software, Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). These new results are compared with the prior standard model to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.
Ostrom, Chris L.↗
An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years
Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.
Building energy modeling↗
An overview of reliability methods in mechanical and structural design
An evaluation is made of modern methods of fast probability integration and Monte Carlo treatment for the assessment of structural systems' and components' reliability. Fast probability integration methods are noted to be more efficient than Monte Carlo ones. This is judged to be an important consideration when several point probability estimates must be made in order to construct a distribution function. An example illustrating the relative efficiency of the various methods is included.
Wirsching, P. H.↗
Gamma-ray constraints on Na-22 yields in nova explosions
The longitudinal distribution of diffuse 1.275 MeV emission produced by the decay of interstellar Na-22 generated by a limited class of energetic novae-accreting ONeMg white dwarfs is modeled. The probability distributions for the locations of disk novae are derived as functions of Galactocentric cylindrical coordinates. The occurrence rate for novae of all classes in the Galactic disk is about 30/yr. An occurrence rate of about 16/yr is found for spheroid novae of all classes. By comparing these simulation results with HEAO 3 upper limits on diffuse 1.275 MeV emission, upper limits of (3-5.6) x 10 to the -7th solar mass are determined for the mean Na-22 yield for energetic novae generated by accreting ONeMg white dwarfs. These Na-22 limits constrain future models of explosive nucleosynthesis in energetic nova explosions.
Higdon, J. C.↗
Toward a comprehensive theory for the sweeping of trapped radiation by inert orbiting matter
There is a need to calculate loss rates when trapped Van Allen radiation encounters inert orbiting material such as planetary rings and satellites. An analytic expression for the probability of a hit in a bounce encounter is available for all cases where the absorber is spherical and the particles are gyrotropically distributed on a cylindrical flux tube. The hit probability is a function of the particle's pitch angle, the size of the absorber, and the distance between flux tube and absorber, when distances are scaled to the gyroradius of a particle moving perpendicular to the magnetic field. Using this expression, hit probabilities have been computed in drift encounters for all regimes of particle energies and absorber sizes. This technique generalizes the approach to sweeping lifetimes, and is particularly suitable for attacking the inverse problem, where one is given a sweeping signature and wants to deduce the properties of the absorber(s).
Fillius, Walker↗
Superclustering in the explosion scenario
A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.
Weinberg, David H.↗
Toward a comprehensive theory for the sweeping of trapped radiation by inert orbiting matter
There is a need to calculate loss rates when trapped Van Allen radiation encounters inert orbiting material such as planetary rings and satellites. An analytic expression for the probability of a hit in a bounce encounter is available for all cases where the absorber is spherical and the particles are gyrotropically distributed on a cylindrical flux tube. The hit probability is a function of the particle's pitch angle, the size of the absorber, and the distance between the flux tube and the absorber when distances are scaled to the gyroradius of a particle moving perpendicular to the magnetic field. Using this expression, hit probabilities in drift encounters were computed for all regimes of particle energies and absorber sizes.
Fillius, Walker↗
A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment
A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.
Tong, Michael T.↗
A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment
A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFS) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.
Tong, Michael T.↗