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At least 325 records · Page 18

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗

An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

Huang, N. E.↗

A Metric to Quantify Shared Visual Attention in Two-Person Teams

Introduction: Critical tasks in high-risk environments are often performed by teams, the members of which must work together efficiently. In some situations, the team members may have to work together to solve a particular problem, while in others it may be better for them to divide the work into separate tasks that can be completed in parallel. We hypothesize that these two team strategies can be differentiated on the basis of shared visual attention, measured by gaze tracking. 2) Methods: Gaze recordings were obtained for two-person flight crews flying a high-fidelity simulator (Gontar, Hoermann, 2014). Gaze was categorized with respect to 12 areas of interest (AOIs). We used these data to construct time series of 12 dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs. At each time step, each vector component was set to 0, except for the one corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which was set to 1. This time series could then be averaged in time, with the averaging window time (t) as a variable parameter. For example, when we average with a t of one minute, each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the corresponding one minute interval. We then computed the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between the gaze proportion vectors for each of the two crew members, at each point in time, resulting in a signal representing the time-varying correlation between gaze behaviors. We determined criteria for concluding correlated gaze behavior using two methods: first, a permutation test was applied to the subjects' data. When one crew member's gaze proportion vector is correlated with a random time sample from the other crewmember's data, a distribution of correlation values is obtained that differs markedly from the distribution obtained from temporally aligned samples. In addition to validating that the gaze tracker was functioning reasonably well, this also allows us to compute probabilities of coordinated behavior for each value of the correlation. As an alternative, we also tabulated distributions of correlation coefficients for synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a first-order Markov process, and compared correlation distributions for identical processes with those for disparate processes, allowing us to choose criteria and estimate error rates. 3) Discussion: Our method of gaze correlation is able to measure shared visual attention, and can distinguish between activities involving different instruments. We plan to analyze whether pilots strategies of sharing visual attention can predict performance. Possible measurements of performance include expert ratings from instructors, fuel consumption, total task time, and failure rate. While developed for two-person crews, our approach can be applied to larger groups, using intra-class correlation coefficients instead of the Pearson product-moment correlation.

Gontar, Patrick↗

Long-duration life tests of slip ring capsule assemblies for inertial guidance platforms

Eight slip ring capsules, each having 80 or 100 circuits, were operated for time periods ranging from 14,300 hours to 24,700 hours. The test mode simulated the motion of gimbal axes of the Saturn inertial guidance the platform in an organic free nitrogen environment. Computer-compiled noise data (approximately 45,000 recordings) were graphed as a function of test time and position within the capsules and as extreme probability distributions. Greater than ninety-nine percent of the noise measurements for the capsules with sufficient lubrication were less than 10 milliohms. Capsules with glass dielectrics did not perform significantly differently than those with filled epoxy dielectrics. The initial wear mode of prow formation was followed by rider wear. After 10 to the 8th power wipes, ring wear depth did not exceed the surface finish and the radial rider wear depth was less than 13 microns.

Cole, S. R.↗

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Swaroop, R.↗

Gamma ray pulsar analysis from photon pobability maps

We present a new method of analyzing skymap-type gamma ray data. Each photon event is replaced by a probability distribution on the sky corresponding to the observing instrument's point spread function. The skymap produced by this process may be used for source detection or identification. Most important, the use of these photon weights for pulsar analysis promises significant improvement over traditional techniques.

Brown, Lawrence E.↗

Gamma ray pulsar analysis from photon probability maps

A new method is presented of analyzing skymap-type gamma ray data. Each photon event is replaced by a probability distribution on the sky corresponding to the observing instrument's point spread function. The skymap produced by this process may be used for source detection or identification. Most important, the use of these photon weights for pulsar analysis promises significant improvement over traditional techniques.

Brown, Lawrence E.↗

Distributed Constrained Optimization with Semicoordinate Transformations

Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve constrained optimization problems. This is done by translating the problem into an iterated game, where each agent controls a different variable of the problem, so that the joint probability distribution across the agents moves gives an expected value of the objective function. The dynamics of the agents is designed to minimize a Lagrangian function of that joint distribution. Here we illustrate how the updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian is a form of automated annealing, which focuses the joint distribution more and more tightly about the joint moves that optimize the objective function. We then investigate the use of "semicoordinate" variable transformations. These separate the joint state of the agents from the variables of the optimization problem, with the two connected by an onto mapping. We present experiments illustrating the ability of such transformations to facilitate optimization. We focus on the special kind of transformation in which the statistically independent states of the agents induces a mixture distribution over the optimization variables. Computer experiment illustrate this for &sat constraint satisfaction problems and for unconstrained minimization of NK functions.

Macready, William↗

Kullback-Leibler information function and the sequential selection of experiments to discriminate among several linear models

The error variance of the process prior multivariate normal distributions of the parameters of the models are assumed to be specified, prior probabilities of the models being correct. A rule for termination of sampling is proposed. Upon termination, the model with the largest posterior probability is chosen as correct. If sampling is not terminated, posterior probabilities of the models and posterior distributions of the parameters are computed. An experiment was chosen to maximize the expected Kullback-Leibler information function. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed to investigate large and small sample behavior of the sequential adaptive procedure.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Internal Luminosity Distribution of Bright Gamma-Ray Bursts and its Relation to Duration and Spectral Hardness

We present first results from a comprehensive investigation into the distribution of luminosity within the 50 brightest cosmic gamma-ray bursts detected by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE). The internal luminosity function psi(L) is defined such that the quantity psi(L)dL represents the fraction of total emission time during which the burst possesses a luminosity between L and L + dL. For these brightest bursts, the psi(L) functions are quasi-power-law-like and decrease in amplitude with increasing luminosity. Through investigation of both individual psi(L) distributions and data from the ensemble of bursts, we demonstrate a high probability for correlation between the shape of the internal luminosity function as measured by the average logarithmic slope and the burst duration as measured by the T(sub 90) parameter and, with lower significance, between the shape of psi(L) and the burst photon-fluence spectral index. We furthermore demonstrate a correlation between burst hardness ratio and duration in these brightest bursts which is opposite to that of the entire gamma-ray burst ensemble.

Horack, John M.↗

Comments on the continuity of distribution functions obtained by superposition.

Assuming that Y is a nonnegative random variable independent of the differential process X(t), attention is given to the question of whether or not the superposition X(Y) can have a continuous probability distribution. If the process has continuous distributions, then the superposition is continuous if and only if P/Y = 0/ = 0. If the process has discontinuous distributions and no trend, then no superposition can have continuous distribution. If the process has discontinuous distributions and nonzero trend, then the superposition onto a random epoch has continuous distribution if and only if Y has continuous distribution.

Huff, B. W.↗

Presenting the Rain-Sea Interaction Facility

The new Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) was established at GSFC/WFF and the first finds are presented. The unique feature of this laboratory is the ability to systematically study microwave scattering from a water surface roughened by artificial rain, for which the droplets are at terminal velocity. The fundamental instruments and systems (e.g., the rain simulator, scatterometers, and surface elevation probes) were installed and evaluated during these first experiments - so the majority of the data were obtained with the rain simulator at 1 m above the water tank. From these initial experiments, three new models were proposed: the square-root function for NCS vs. R, the log Gaussian model for ring-wave elevation frequency spectrum, and the Erland probability density distribution for back scattered power. Rain rate is the main input for these models, although the coefficients may be dependent upon other factors (drop-size distribution, fall velocity, radar configuration, etc.). The facility is functional and we foresee collaborative studies with investigators who are engaged in measuring and modeling rain-sea interaction processes.

Bliven, Larry F.↗

A model function for ocean radar cross sections at 14.6 GHz

The relationship between the ocean's normalized radar cross section (NRCS) at 14.6 GHz and the surface wind vector is derived using the 3 months of Seasat microwave scatterometer (SASS) measurements. The derivation is based on the statistics of the SASS observations, and no in situ measurements are required, other than a mean global wind speed, which comes from climatology. The frequency distribution of the global wind vectors observed by SASS is assumed to be a bivariate normal probability function. A NRCS model function is found that maps the assumed wind vector statistics into the observed SASS NRCS statistics. This function is compared with a NRCS model coming from the Joint Air Sea Interaction Experiment (JASIN) and with aircraft scatterometer measurements. The results indicate that the statistically derived NRCS model is an improvement over the JASIN model, which was based on a limited number of in situ anemometer measurements.

Wentz, F. J.↗

Path-length distributions of photons diffusely reflected from a semi-infinite atmosphere.

Knowledge of the probability distribution of photon path lengths for diffuse reflection in the continuum from a planetary atmosphere greatly simplifies computation of the shape and strength of absorption lines formed under conditions of multiple scattering. Graphs of this probability distribution are presented for diffuse reflection from a semiinfinite conservative atmosphere for both isotropic and forward-directed scattering, and for several angles of incidence and reflection. Graphs showing distributions for the case of absorption in the continuum are also discussed. The distributions are obtained from an analytic expression for the path-length distribution for nth-order scattering and a tabulation of nth-order intensities. It is found that te shape of the probability distribution depends markedly on the degree of forward scattering due to the phase function. The results are compared with those obtained by a Monte Carlo computation of the sort which might be used if tabulated nth-order intensities were not available.

Appleby, J. F.↗

Wave theory of turbulence in compressible media

An acoustical theory of turbulence was developed to aid in the study of the generation of sound in turbulent flows. The statistical framework adopted is a quantum-like wave dynamical formulation in terms of complex distribution functions. This formulation results in nonlinear diffusion-type transport equations for the probability densities of the five modes of wave propagation: two vorticity modes, one entropy mode, and two acoustic modes. This system of nonlinear equations is closed and complete. The technique of analysis was chosen such that direct applications to practical problems can be obtained with relative ease.

Kentzer, C. P.↗

The reliability of multistate, multioutput systems

A system which can generate multiple signals such that each signal can have different quality states is modeled. A measure of the effectiveness of the system as a function of the status of its components is developed. Assuming only that the probability distribution of the status of each component is known, bounds on the probability distribution of the system's measure of effectiveness are developed.

Subelman, E. J.↗

Airborne Laser Polar Nephelometer

A polar nephelometer has been developed at NCAR to measure the angular variation of the intensity of light scattered by air molecules and particles. The system has been designed for airborne measurements using outside air ducted through a 5-cm diameter airflow tube; the sample volume is that which is common to the intersection of a collimated source beam and the detector field of view within the airflow tube. The source is a linearly polarized helium-neon laser beam. The optical system defines a collimated field-of-view (0.5deg half-angle) through a series of diaphragms located behind a I72-mm focal length objective lens. A photomultiplier tube is located immediately behind an aperture in the focal plane of the objective lens. The laser beam is mechanically chopped (on-off) at a rate of 5 Hz; a two-channel pulse counter, synchronized to the laser output, measures the photomultiplier pulse rate with the light beam both on and off. The difference in these measured pulse rates is directly proportional to the intensity of the scattered light from the volume common to the intersection of the laser beam and the detector field-of-view. Measurements can be made at scattering angles from 15deg to 165deg with reference to the direction of propagation of the light beam. Intermediate angles are obtained by selecting the angular increments desired between these extreme angles (any multiple of 0.1deg can be selected for the angular increment; 5deg is used in normal operation). Pulses provided by digital circuits control a stepping motor which sequentially rotates the detector by pre-selected angular increments. The synchronous photon-counting system automatically begins measurement of the scattered-light intensity immediately after the rotation to a new angle has been completed. The instrument has been flown on the NASA Convair 990 airborne laboratory to obtain data on the complex index of refraction of atmospheric aerosols. A particle impaction device is operated simultaneously to collect particles from the same airflow tube used to make the scattered-light measurements. A size distribution function is obtained by analysis of the particles collected by the impaction device. Calculated values of the angular variation of the scattered-light intensity are obtained by applying Mie scattering theory to the observed size distribution function and assuming different values of the complex index of refraction of the particles. The calculated values are then compared with data on the actual variation of the scattered-light intensity obtained with the polar nephelometer. The most probable value of the complex refractive index is that which provides the best fit between the experimental light scattering data and the parameters calculated from the observed size distribution function.

Grams, Gerald W.↗

Characterization of Operational Performance of Ka-Band Links in Deep Space Network

This paper presents a characterization of performance of 32-GHz Ka-band link in an operational environment. The data come from tracking of Kepler spacecraft by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) in the past few years. Ka-band link offers a significant signal-to-noise advantage compared to the more common X- or S-band; however, it is subject to more signal fluctuation caused by the weather. Kepler is the first mission supported by the DSN that solely rely on the higher deep space Ka-band communications link to return its high-rate science data. A well characterization of the operational performance of Kepler would benefit future Ka-band missions, especially for those operating with smaller link margin. The study examines how weather conditions at the DSN facilities (e.g., winds, clouds, rains) affect the received signal, particularly on telemetry data. It addresses questions such as how often the weather affects the link and how much degradation the link could suffer. Among the 22 Ka-band passes in 2012, heavy clouds affected one pass and two passes were impacted by high winds. The adverse weather caused at time as much as 3-dB instantaneous change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). Estimates of degradation to the SNR as a function of wind speeds are captured based on observations. This study also quantifies the probability distribution of the variation of received signal power. With such information, future missions can better plan their link design. An optimal link design aims for just having enough margin to realize the data return with a targeted probability, with neither having too much margin that it reduces the downlink data rate nor insufficient reserve that causes frequent data outages. The study tries to provide some answers to the questions such as how much does SNR vary from one tracking pass to the next, and what is the cumulative distribution of signal fluctuation. Regarding the signal variation over many tracking passes, we found that the averaged symbol SNR (SSNR) for each pass changed by as much as 4 dB. Some variations were due to geometry such as the changing distance between spacecraft and Earth and different antenna pointing elevations. Other variations seem to be random in nature, reflecting the randomness of operational environments. Some passes were found to be quite stable, with a standard deviation of symbol SNR around 0.25 dB while others had greater variation, up to 1.4 dB. Overall, the cumulative distribution of the symbol SNR reflects that 50% of the fluctuations was less than 0.6 dB, 90% of fluctuation was within 1.6 dB and 95% within 2.2 dB. Some of the challenges in data processing, validation and modeling were captured in this paper. We observed some inconsistent measurements where operational data significantly deviate from a normal expectation. These inconsistent measurements made it hard to develop an accurate and consistent performance model, such as the degradation of signal SNR as a function of high wind. The difficulty was compounded by the fact that there were only a few Ka-band passes observed in high winds.

Pham, Timothy↗