Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability Distribution Function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

No Evidence for Feedback: Unexceptional Low-ionization Winds in Host Galaxies of Low Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei at Redshift z ∼ 1

We study winds in 12 X-ray AGN host galaxies at z∼1. We find, using the low-ionization Fe ii λ2586 absorption in the stacked spectra, that the probability distribution function (PDF) of the centroid-velocity shift in AGNs has 50th (median), 16th, and 84th percentiles of (−87, −251, +86) km s{sup −1} respectively. The PDF of the velocity dispersion in AGNs has 50th (median), 84th, and 16th percentiles of (139, 253, 52) km s{sup −1} respectively. The centroid velocity and the velocity dispersions are obtained from a two-component (ISM+wind) absorption-line model. The equivalent width PDF of the outflow in AGNs has 50th (median), 84th, and 16th percentiles of (0.4, 0.8, 0.1) Å. There is a strong ISM component in Fe ii λ2586 absorption (with (1.2, 1.5, 0.8) Å, implying the presence of a substantial amount cold gas in the host galaxies. For comparison, star-forming and X-ray undetected galaxies at a similar redshift, matched roughly in stellar mass and galaxy inclination, have a centroid-velocity PDF with percentiles of (−74, −258, +90) km s{sup −1}, and a velocity-dispersion PDF with percentiles of (150, 259, 57) km s{sup −1}. Thus, winds in the AGN are similar to star formation-driven winds, and are too weak to escape and expel substantial cool gas from galaxies. Our sample doubles the previous sample of AGNs studied at z∼0.5 and extends the analysis to z∼1. A joint reanalysis of the z∼0.5 AGN sample and our sample yields consistent results to the measurements above.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

New Fitting Formula for Cosmic Nonlinear Density Distribution

We have measured the probability distribution function (PDF) of a cosmic matter density field from a suite of N-body simulations. We propose the generalized normal distribution of version 2 (N{sub v2}) as an alternative fitting formula to the well-known log-normal distribution. We find that N{sub v2} provides a significantly better fit than that of the log-normal distribution for all smoothing radii (2, 5, 10, 25 [Mpc h {sup −1}]) that we studied. The improvement is substantial in the underdense regions. The development of non-Gaussianities in the cosmic matter density field is captured by continuous evolution of the skewness and shift parameters of the N{sub v2} distribution. We present the redshift evolution of these parameters for aforementioned smoothing radii and various background cosmology models. All the PDFs measured from large and high-resolution N-body simulations that we use in this study can be obtained from the web site https://astro.kias.re.kr/jhshin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Deriving the Contribution of Blazars to the Fermi -LAT Extragalactic γ -ray Background at E > 10 GeV with Efficiency Corrections and Photon Statistics

Here, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) Collaboration has recently released the Third Catalog of Hard Fermi -LAT Sources (3FHL), which contains 1556 sources detected above 10 GeV with seven years of Pass 8 data. Building upon the 3FHL results, we investigate the flux distribution of sources at high Galactic latitudes ($|b| \gt 20^\circ $), which are mostly blazars. We use two complementary techniques: (1) a source-detection efficiency correction method and (2) an analysis of pixel photon count statistics with the one-point probability distribution function (1pPDF). With the first method, using realistic Monte Carlo simulations of the γ-ray sky, we calculate the efficiency of the LAT to detect point sources. This enables us to find the intrinsic source-count distribution at photon fluxes down to 7.5 × 10 –12 ph cm –2 s –1 . With this method, we detect a flux break at (3.5 ± 0.4) × 10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 with a significance of at least 5.4σ. The power-law indexes of the source-count distribution above and below the break are 2.09 ± 0.04 and 1.07 ± 0.27, respectively. This result is confirmed with the 1pPDF method, which has a sensitivity reach of ~10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 . Integrating the derived source-count distribution above the sensitivity of our analysis, we find that (42 ± 8)% of the extragalactic γ-ray background originates from blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Inference of the Symmetry Energy of Superdense Neutron-rich Matter from Future Radius Measurements of Massive Neutron Stars

In this work, using as references the posterior probability distribution functions of the equation of state (EOS) parameters inferred from the radii of canonical neutron stars (NSs) reported by the LIGO/VIRGO and NICER Collaborations based on their observations of GW170817 and PSR J0030+0451, we investigate how future radius measurements of more massive NSs will improve our current knowledge about the EOS of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter, especially its symmetry energy term. Within the Bayesian statistical approach using an explicitly isospin-dependent parametric EOS for the core of NSs, we infer the EOS parameters of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter from three sets of imagined mass–radius correlation data representing typical predictions by various nuclear many-body theories, that is, the radius stays the same, decreases, or increases with increasing NS mass within ±15% between 1.4 and 2.0 M$_\odot$. The corresponding NS average density increases quickly or slowly or slightly decreases as the NS mass increases from 1.4 to 2.0 M$_\odot$. While the EOSs of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) inferred from the three data sets are approximately the same, the corresponding symmetry energies above about twice the saturation density of nuclear matter are very different, indicating that the radii of massive NSs carry important information about the high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy with little influence from the remaining uncertainties of the SNM EOS at suprasaturation densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MASS SURFACE DENSITIES IN A HIGH-MASS PROTOCLUSTER

We study the probability distribution function (PDF) of mass surface densities, Σ, of infrared dark cloud (IRDC) G028.37+00.07 and its surrounding giant molecular cloud. This PDF constrains the physical processes, such as turbulence, magnetic fields, and self-gravity, that are expected to be controlling cloud structure and star formation activity. The chosen IRDC is of particular interest since it has almost 100,000 solar masses within a radius of 8 pc, making it one of the most massive, dense molecular structures known and is thus a potential site for the formation of a “super star cluster.” We study Σ in two ways. First, we use a combination of NIR and MIR extinction maps that are able to probe the bulk of the cloud structure up to Σ ∼ 1 g cm{sup −2}( A {sub V}≃ 200 mag). Second, we study the FIR and submillimeter dust continuum emission from the cloud utilizing Herschel -PACS and SPIRE images and paying careful attention to the effects of foreground and background contamination. We find that the PDFs from both methods, applied over a ∼20′(30 pc)-sized region that contains ≃1.5 × 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙} and enclosing a minimum closed contour with Σ ≃ 0.013 g cm{sup −2} ( A {sub V} ≃ 3 mag), shows a lognormal shape with the peak measured at Σ ≃ 0.021 g cm{sup −2} ( A {sub V}≃ 4.7 mag). There is tentative evidence for the presence of a high-Σ power-law tail that contains from ∼3% to 8% of the mass of the cloud material. We discuss the implications of these results for the physical processes occurring in this cloud.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Statistical Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Compact Object Merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey Galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 M ⊙ black hole with a 2.6 M ⊙ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event; thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo- z ) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Furthermore, our analysis uses photo- z probability distribution functions and corrects for photo- z biases. We also reanalyze the binary black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the H 0 constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814, and GW170817, our analysis yields H 0 =72.0$_{+12}^{–8.2}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest-density interval, HDI) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20 and 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68% HDI from GW170817 alone by ~18%, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Statistics of Elsasser Increments in Solar Wind and Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

In this Letter we investigate the dependency with scale of the empirical probability distribution functions (PDF) of Elsasser increments using large sets of WIND data (collected between 1995 and 2017) near 1 au. The empirical PDF are compared to the ones obtained from high-resolution numerical simulations of steadily driven, homogeneous reduced MHD turbulence on a 2048 3 rectangular mesh. A large statistical sample of Alfvénic increments is obtained by using conditional analysis based on the solar wind average properties. The PDF tails obtained from observations and numerical simulations are found to have exponential behavior in the inertial range, with an exponential decrement that satisfies power laws of the form α l ∝ l –μ , where l is the scale size, with μ between 0.17 and 0.25 for observations and 0.43 for simulations. PDF tails were extrapolated assuming their exponential behavior extends to arbitrarily large increments in order to determine structure function scaling laws at very high orders. Our results point to potentially universal scaling laws governing the PDF of Elsasser increments and to an alternative approach to investigate high-order statistics in solar wind observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Semi-Lagrangian nodal discontinuous Galerkin method for the BGK model

In this work, we propose a semi-Lagrangian (SL) nodal discontinuous Galerkin (DG) solver for the BGK equation. The BGK model was introduced by Bhatnagar, Gross, and Krook [1] as a relaxation model for the fundamental Boltzmann equation [5], which describes the kinetic dynamic of rarefied gases with a probability distribution function. The challenges of designing efficient numerical schemes for the Boltzmann equation mainly come from its high dimensionality and complicated nonlinear collision operator. The BGK model gains interests since it has much lower computational cost, due to the relatively simple structure of the relaxation operator in replacement of the collision operator, while simultaneously preserving several important physical properties, such as macroscopic quantities and dissipation of entropy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of four ground-based retrievals of cloud droplet number concentration in marine stratocumulus with aircraft in situ measurements

Abstract. Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is crucial for understanding aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) and associated radiative effects. We present evaluations of four ground-based Nd retrievals based on comprehensive datasets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The Nd retrieval methods use ARM ENA observatory ground-based remote sensing observations from a micropulse lidar, Raman lidar, cloud radar, and the ARM NDROP (Droplet Number Concentration) value-added product (VAP), all of which also retrieve cloud effective radius (re). The retrievals are compared against aircraft measurements from the fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) and the cloud and aerosol spectrometer (CAS) obtained from low-level marine boundary layer clouds on 12 flight days during summer and winter seasons. Additionally, the in situ measurements are used to validate the assumptions and characterizations used in the retrieval algorithms. Statistical comparisons of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the Nd and cloud re retrievals with aircraft measurements demonstrate that these retrievals align well with in situ measurements for overcast clouds, but they may substantially differ for broken clouds or clouds with low liquid water path (LWP). The retrievals are applied to 4 years of ground-based remote sensing measurements of overcast marine boundary layer clouds at the ARM ENA observatory to find that Nd (re) values exhibit seasonal variations, with higher (lower) values during the summer season and lower (higher) values during the winter season. The ensemble of various retrievals using different measurements and retrieval algorithms such as those in this paper can help to quantify Nd retrieval uncertainties and identify reliable Nd retrieval scenarios. Of the retrieval methods, we recommend using the micropulse lidar-based method. This method has good agreement with in situ measurements, less sensitivity to issues arising from precipitation and low cloud LWP and/or optical depth, and broad applicability by functioning for both daytime and nighttime conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

Abstract. Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (Kv), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of Kv increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.

Libardoni, Alex G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Four Ground-based Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in Marine Stratocumulus with Aircraft In Situ Measurements

Cloud droplet number concentration (N d ) is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) and associated radiative effects. We present evaluations of four ground-based N d retrievals based on comprehensive datasets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The N d retrieval methods use ARM ENA observatory ground-based remote sensing observations from a Micropulse lidar, Raman lidar, cloud radar, and the ARM NDROP Value-added Product (VAP), all of which also retrieve cloud effective radius (r e ). The retrievals are compared against aircraft measurements from the Fast-Cloud Droplet Probe (FCDP) and the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS) obtained from low-level marine boundary layer clouds on 12 flight days during summer and winter seasons. Additionally, the in situ measurements are used to validate the assumptions and characterizations used in the retrieval algorithms. Statistical comparisons of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the N d and cloud r e retrievals with aircraft measurements demonstrate that these retrievals align well with in situ measurements for overcast clouds, but they may substantially differ for broken clouds or clouds with low liquid water path (LWP). The retrievals are applied to four years of ground-based remote sensing measurements of overcast marine boundary layer clouds at the ARM ENA observatory to find that N d (r e ) values exhibit seasonal variations, with higher (lower) values during the summer season and lower (higher) values during the winter season. The ensemble of various retrievals using different measurements and retrieval algorithms such as those in this paper can help to quantify N d retrieval uncertainties and identify reliable N d retrieval scenarios. Of the retrieval methods, we recommend using the using the Micropulse lidar-based method given its good agreement with in situ measurements, it has less sensitivity to issues arising from precipitation and low cloud LWP/optical depth, and it has broad applicability by functioning for both day and nighttime conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of coupling a stochastic convective parameterization with the Zhang–McFarlane scheme on precipitation simulation in the DOE E3SMv1.0 atmosphere model

Abstract. A stochastic deep convection parameterization is implemented into the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1.0 (EAMv1). This study evaluates its performance in simulating precipitation. Compared to the default model, the probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity in the new simulation is greatly improved. The well-known problem of “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is alleviated, especially over the tropics. As a result, the contribution from different rain rates to the total precipitation amount is shifted toward heavier rain. The less frequent occurrence of convection contributes to suppressed light rain, while more intense large-scale and convective precipitation contributes to enhanced heavy total rain. The synoptic and intraseasonal variabilities of precipitation are enhanced as well to be closer to observations. The sensitivity of the rainfall intensity PDF to the model vertical resolution is examined. The relationship between precipitation and dilute convective available potential energy in the stochastic simulation agrees better with that in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations compared with the standard model simulation. The annual mean precipitation is largely unchanged with the use of the stochastic scheme except over the tropical western Pacific, where a moderate increase in precipitation represents a slight improvement. The responses of precipitation and its extremes to climate warming are similar with or without the stochastic deep convection scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Long-Term Probability Distribution of Wind Turbine Planetary Bearing Loads (Poster)

Among the various causes of bearing damage and failure, metal fatigue of the rolling contact surface is the dominant failure mechanism. The fatigue life is associated with the load conditions under which wind turbines operate in the field. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term distribution of the bearing loads under various environmental conditions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 750-kW Gearbox Reliability Collaborative wind turbine is studied in this work. A decoupled analysis using several computer codes is carried out. The global aero-elastic simulations are performed using HAWC2. The time series of the drivetrain loads and motions from the global dynamic analysis are fed to a drivetrain model in SIMPACK. The time-varying internal pressure distribution along the raceway is obtained analytically. A series of probability distribution functions are then used to fit the long-term statistical distribution at different locations along raceways. The long-term distribution of the bearing raceway loads are estimated under different environmental conditions. Finally, the bearing fatigue lives are calculated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

A stochastic analysis of steady and transient heat conduction in random media using a homogenization approach

We present a new stochastic analysis for steady and transient one-dimensional heat conduction problem based on the homogenization approach. Thermal conductivity is assumed to be a random field K consisting of random variables of a total number N. Both steady and transient solutions T are expressed in terms of the homogenized solution (symbol) and its spatial derivatives (equation), where homogenized solution (symbol) is obtained by solving the homogenized equation with effective thermal conductivity. Both mean and variance of stochastic solutions can be obtained analytically for K field consisting of independent identically distributed (i.i.d) random variables. The mean and variance of T are shown to be dependent only on the mean and variance of these i.i.d variables, not the particular form of probability distribution function of i.i.d variables. Variance of temperature field T can be separated into two contributions: the ensemble contribution (through the homogenized temperature (symbol)); and the configurational contribution (through the random variable Ln(x)Ln(x)). The configurational contribution is shown to be proportional to the local gradient of (symbol). Large uncertainty of T field was found at locations with large gradient of (symbol) due to the significant configurational contributions at these locations. Numerical simulations were implemented based on a direct Monte Carlo method and good agreement is obtained between numerical Monte Carlo results and the proposed stochastic analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty of Personnel Dosimetry Systems Using Performance Data Testing

While accreditation programs require a study of uncertainty for each dosimeter model for which accreditation is sought (Torres 2005, DOE 1986), no one method is specifically recommended by accrediting bodies. Typically, the methods used to determine uncertainty have included the partial differentiation method described in the U.S. Guide to Uncertainty in Measurements (ANSI 1997) or the use of Monte Carlo techniques and probability distribution functions to generate simulated dose results. Each of these techniques has particular strengths and should be employed when the areas of uncertainty are required to be understood in detail. However, the uncertainty of dosimeter results can also be determined using a Model II One-Way Analysis of Variance technique and accreditation testing data (Cummings and Flood 2010). The strengths of this method are (1) the method is based in robust and well-accepted statistical techniques; (2) the method is straightforward and easily applied to dose algorithms, which are so complex as to render the use of other methods unwieldy; and (3) the method uses dosimeter performance data obtained during accreditation. The general method and criteria of inclusion of radiation types and fields are discussed.

Cummings, Frederick (Rick) M.↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Study of Turbulence-Driven Inward Momentum Flux & Construction of a Difference Scheme for Fokker-Planck-Landau Operator

Momentum transport driven by microinstability is studied via analytic theories, gyrokinetic simulations, and experimental data analysis. A scenario for rotation profile evolution is constructed based on experimental observation that parallel flow initiates at edge region and penetrates into core region of tokamak [1]. In particular, turbulent diffusion and inward convective pinch are studied according to this scenario. For study of convective momentum pinch, toroidal ion temperature gradient mode near marginal stability is examined in kinetic limit. It is found from quasilinear estimation that the inward turbulent equipartition momentum pinch remains as the most robust part of pinch. In addition, it is found that ion temperature gradient driven momentum pinch is inward for typical parameters, while ion density gradient driven momentum pinch is outward. It is shown by theoretical formulas and experimental data analysis that momentum pinch velocity is sensitive to the electron to ion temperature ratio. For study of diffusive momentum transport, parallel shear flow instability is studied in fluid limit. Diffusion coefficient using mixing length estimate from nonlocal theory reveals that it has a strong dependence on the parallel flow shear and is mainly carried by fluctuations in short wavelength regime. Gyrokinetic simulation of collisionless parallel shear flow instability shows that the analytic prediction of diffusion coefficient is comparable to numerical values in the linear phase of the simulations. In the nonlinear phase, fluctuation energy gets transferred to the long wavelength regime. A two-dimensional, uniform velocity-grid based solver for the nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Landau (FPL) collision operator has been developed in the limit of strong magnetic field. The conservative and entropy increasing semidiscretized numerical scheme for the isotropic FPL equation by C. Buet et al. (2002) has been extended to 2D velocity space. A Picard fixed point method is used for semi-implicit time advance. One time evaluation of interpolation coefficients for probability distribution function is introduced so that numerical equilibrium is achieved with Maxwellian. However, positivity property is sacrificed at the saving of computational costs. In addition, a highly practical method is suggested to apply the velocity-grid based collision solver to particle-in-cell code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗