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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1991

Probability of brittle failure

A methodology was developed for collecting statistically representative data for crack initiation and arrest from small number of test specimens. An epoxy (based on bisphenol A diglycidyl ether and polyglycol extended diglycyl ether and cured with diethylene triamine) is selected as a model material. A compact tension specimen with displacement controlled loading is used to observe multiple crack initiation and arrests. The energy release rate at crack initiation is significantly higher than that at a crack arrest, as has been observed elsewhere. The difference between these energy release rates is found to depend on specimen size (scale effect), and is quantitatively related to the fracture surface morphology. The scale effect, similar to that in statistical strength theory, is usually attributed to the statistics of defects which control the fracture process. Triangular shaped ripples (deltoids) are formed on the fracture surface during the slow subcritical crack growth, prior to the smooth mirror-like surface characteristic of fast cracks. The deltoids are complementary on the two crack faces which excludes any inelastic deformation from consideration. Presence of defects is also suggested by the observed scale effect. However, there are no defects at the deltoid apexes detectable down to the 0.1 micron level.

Kim, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A cluster of Nascent galaxies at z = 2?

On a 6 hr Wide Field Camera exposure with the Hubble Space Telescope of the rich cluster CL 0939 + 4713, we have identified an apparent cluster of about 30 faint, extended objects with magnitudes in the range of 22 to 25. The objects are typically 1 arcsec in size with bright central regions only a few tenths of an arcsecond in size, and are distributed over a region approximately 40 arcsec long and 20 arcsec wide. A simple statistical analysis indicates that the clustering is probably real. The size and appearance of the individual objects, their blue colors, and their clustering, leads us to speculate that they are associated, and that they are considerably more distant than the cluster CL 0939 + 4713 at z = 0.40, probably at a redshift greater than 1. Among the strongest concentration of these objects is an unresolved, extremely blue object with the spectrum of a QSO at z = 2.055. We suggest that many of the small, faint objects could be physically associated with this QSO.

Dressler, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1996

Quantitative Measures for Software Independent Verification and Validation

As software is maintained or reused, it undergoes an evolution which tends to increase the overall complexity of the code. To understand the effects of this, we brought in statistics experts and leading researchers in software complexity, reliability, and their interrelationships. These experts' project has resulted in our ability to statistically correlate specific code complexity attributes, in orthogonal domains, to errors found over time in the HAL/S flight software which flies in the Space Shuttle. Although only a prototype-tools experiment, the result of this research appears to be extendable to all other NASA software, given appropriate data similar to that logged for the Shuttle onboard software. Our research has demonstrated that a more complete domain coverage can be mathematically demonstrated with the approach we have applied, thereby ensuring full insight into the cause-and-effects relationship between the complexity of a software system and the fault density of that system. By applying the operational profile we can characterize the dynamic effects of software path complexity under this same approach We now have the ability to measure specific attributes which have been statistically demonstrated to correlate to increased error probability, and to know which actions to take, for each complexity domain. Shuttle software verifiers can now monitor the changes in the software complexity, assess the added or decreased risk of software faults in modified code, and determine necessary corrections. The reports, tool documentation, user's guides, and new approach that have resulted from this research effort represent advances in the state of the art of software quality and reliability assurance. Details describing how to apply this technique to other NASA code are contained in this document.

Lee, Alice↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Refractivity Profiles from CHAMP and SAC-C GPS Radio Occultation

The CHAMP and SAC-C missions are the first missions to carry a second-generation 'Blackjack' GPS receiver. One of the new features of this receiver is its ability to sense the lower troposphere closer to the surface than the proof-of-concept GPS/MET 1995 experiment. Since their launch, CHAMP and SAC-C have collected thousands of GPS radio occultations, representing a wealth of measurements available for data assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In order to evaluate the refractivity data derived by JPL from raw radio occultation measurements, we use Data Assimilation Office (DAO) 6-hour forecasts as an independent state of the atmosphere. We compare CHAMP and SAC-C refractivity (processed by JPL) with refractivity calculated from the DAO global fields of temperature, water vapor content and humidity. We will show statistics of the differences as well as Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of the differences. Depending upon availability of AIRS data, we plan to show individual profile comparisons between GPS radio occultation and AIRS retrievals.

Poli, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Refractivity Profiles From Champ and SAC-C GPS Radio Occultation

The CHAMP and SAC-C missions are the first missions to carry a second-generation 'Blackjack' GPS receiver. One of the new features of this receiver is its ability to sense the lower troposphere closer to the surface than the proof-of-concept GPS/MET 1995 experiment. Since their launch, CHAMP and SAC-C have collected thousands of GPS radio occultations, representing a wealth of measurements available for data assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In order to evaluate the refractivity data derived by JPL from raw radio occultation measurements, we use Data Assimilation Office (DAO) shout forecasts as an independent state of the atmosphere. We compare CHAMP and SAC-C refractivity (processed by JPL) with refractivity calculated from the DAO global fields of temperature, water vapor content and humidity. We will show statistics of the differences as well as Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of the differences. Depending upon availability of AIRS data, we plan to show individual profile comparisons between GPS radio occultation and AIRS retrievals.

Poli, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2002

Bounding the Risk of Crew Loss Following Orbital Debris Penetration of the International Space Station at Assembly Stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been sufficiently large to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight lJ, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight lE, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures and configurations that reduce R at these stages.

Evans, S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Models, Theoretical↗
NASA NTRS2011

Best Merge Region Growing with Integrated Probabilistic Classification for Hyperspectral Imagery

A new method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. The method is based on the integration of probabilistic classification within the hierarchical best merge region growing algorithm. For this purpose, preliminary probabilistic support vector machines classification is performed. Then, hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm is applied, by iteratively merging regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC). The main novelty of this method consists in defining a DC between regions as a function of region statistical and geometrical features along with classification probabilities. Experimental results are presented on a 200-band AVIRIS image of the Northwestern Indiana s vegetation area and compared with those obtained by recently proposed spectral-spatial classification techniques. The proposed method improves classification accuracies when compared to other classification approaches.

Tarabalka, Yuliya↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Operational Hazards↗
NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Characterization of 18650-Format Lithium-Ion Cell Thermal Runaway Energy Distributions

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. A unique calorimeter was utilized to examine the TR behavior of a statistically significant number of 18650-format Li-ion cells with varying manufacturers, chemistries, and capacities. The calorimeter was designed to contain the TR energy in a format conducive to discerning the fractions of energy released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. Other benefits of this calorimeter included the ability to rapidly test of large quantities of cells and the intentional minimization of secondary combustion effects. High energy (270 Wh/kg) and moderate energy (200 Wh/kg) 18650 cells were tested. Some of the cells had an imbedded short circuit (ISC) device installed to aid in the examination of TR mechanisms under more realistic conditions. Other variations included cells with bottom vent (BV) features and cells with thin casings (0.22 1/4m). After combining the data gathered with the calorimeter, a statistical approach was used to examine the probability of certain TR behavior, and the associated energy distributions, as a function of capacity, venting features, cell casing thickness and temperature.

Thermal Runaway Energy Distribution↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Algorithm for the Fitting of Planet Models to Kepler Light Curves

We describe an algorithm which fits model planetary system parameters to light curves from Kepler Mission target stars. The algorithm begins by producing an initial model of the system which is used to seed the fit,with particular emphasis on obtaining good transit timing parameters. An attempt is then made to determine whether the observed transits are more likely due to a planet or an eclipsing binary. In the event that the transits are consistent with a transiting planet, an iterative fitting process is initiated: a wavelet-based whitening filter is used to eliminate stellar variations on timescales long compared to a transit; a robust nonlinear fitter operating on the whitened light curve produces a new model of the system; and the procedure iterates until convergence upon a self-consistent whitening filter and planet model. The fitted transits are removed from the light curve anda search for additional planet candidates is performed upon the residual light curve. The fitted models are used in additional tests which identify false positive planet detections: multiple planet candidates with near-identical fitted periods are far more likely to be an eclipsing binary, for example, while target stars in which the model lightcurve is correlated with the star centroid position may indicate a background eclipsing binary, and subtraction of all model planet candidates yields a light curve of pure noise and stellar variability, which can be used to study the probability that the planet candidates result from statistical fluctuations in the data.

Exoplanet↗
NASA NTRS1975

Normal probabilities for Vandenberg AFB wind components - monthly reference periods for all flight azimuths, 0- to 70-km altitudes

Vandenberg Air Force Base (AFB), California, wind component statistics are presented to be used for aerospace engineering applications that require component wind probabilities for various flight azimuths and selected altitudes. The normal (Gaussian) distribution is presented as a statistical model to represent component winds at Vandenberg AFB. Head tail, and crosswind components are tabulated for all flight azimuths for altitudes from 0 to 70 km by monthly reference periods. Wind components are given for 11 selected percentiles ranging from 0.135 percent to 99.865 percent for each month. The results of statistical goodness-of-fit tests are presented to verify the use of the Gaussian distribution as an adequate model to represent component winds at Vandenberg AFB.

Falls, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Normal probabilities for Cape Kennedy wind components: Monthly reference periods for all flight azimuths. Altitudes 0 to 70 kilometers

This document replaces Cape Kennedy empirical wind component statistics which are presently being used for aerospace engineering applications that require component wind probabilities for various flight azimuths and selected altitudes. The normal (Gaussian) distribution is presented as an adequate statistical model to represent component winds at Cape Kennedy. Head-, tail-, and crosswind components are tabulated for all flight azimuths for altitudes from 0 to 70 km by monthly reference periods. Wind components are given for 11 selected percentiles ranging from 0.135 percent to 99,865 percent for each month. Results of statistical goodness-of-fit tests are presented to verify the use of the Gaussian distribution as an adequate model to represent component winds at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

Falls, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of understanding the relative contribution to the observations of air of either distinctly tropospheric or stratospheric origin. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High [low] potential vorticity at 300 hPa suggests that the tropopause is low [high], and the identification of the two groups helps to account for dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the mix from both observations and model simulations. Two data sources are chosen. First, several years of ozonesonde observations are used to exploit the high vertical resolution. Second, observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment [HALOE] on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite [UARS] are used to understand the impact on the results of the spatial limitations of the ozonesonde network. The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause [about 380K]. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling, the probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. By using the model, possible mechanisms for the maintenance of mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere are revealed. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is discussed.

Cerniglia, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of understanding the relative contribution to the observations of air of either distinctly tropospheric or stratospheric origin. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High [low] potential vorticity at 300 hPa suggests that the tropopause is low [high], and the identification of the two groups helps to account for dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the mix from both observations and model simulations. Two data sources are chosen. First, several years of ozonesonde observations are used to exploit the high vertical resolution. Second, observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment [HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite [UARS] are used to understand the impact on the results of the spatial limitations of the ozonesonde network. The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause [approximately 380K]. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling, the probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. By using the model, possible mechanisms for the maintenance of mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere are revealed. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is discussed.

Cerniglia, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The beta distribution: A statistical model for world cloud cover

Much work has been performed in developing empirical global cloud cover models. This investigation was made to determine an underlying theoretical statistical distribution to represent worldwide cloud cover. The beta distribution with probability density function is given to represent the variability of this random variable. It is shown that the beta distribution possesses the versatile statistical characteristics necessary to assume the wide variety of shapes exhibited by cloud cover. A total of 160 representative empirical cloud cover distributions were investigated and the conclusion was reached that this study provides sufficient statical evidence to accept the beta probability distribution as the underlying model for world cloud cover.

Falls, L. W.↗