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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2005

A New Approach to using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-kilometer scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically-based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. A review of developments and applications of cloud models in the past, present and future will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using cloud-resolving models to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation and aerosols will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-resolving Model to Study the Interactions Between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as l0,OOO km in two-dimensions, and 1,OOO x 1,OOO km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically-based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. A review of developments and applications of cloud models in the past, present and future will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using cloud-resolving models to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation and aerosols will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

Chromium on Eros: Further Evidence of Ordinary Chondrite Composition

The surface major element composition of the near-earth asteroid 433-Eros has been determined by x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRS) on the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft [1]. The abundances of Mg, Al, Si, Ca and Fe match those of ordinary chondrites [1]. However, the observation that Eros appears to have a sulfur abundance at least a factor of two lower than ordinary chondrites, suggests either sulfur loss from the surface of Eros by impact and/or radiation processes (space weathering) or that its surface is comprised of a somewhat more differentiated type of material than an ordinary chondrite [1]. A definitive match for an ordinary chondrite parent body has very rarely been made, despite the conundrum that ordinary chondrites are the most prevalent type of meteorite found on Earth. Furthermore, Eros is classified as an S(IV) type asteroid [2] and being an S, it is the second most prevalent type of asteroid in the asteroid belt [3].

Foley, C. N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A New Approach to using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically-based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. A review of developments and applications of cloud models in the past, present and future will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using cloud-resolving models to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation and aerosols will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2004

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Ionization Energy Lowering in Water Ices

In studying various interstellar and solar system ice analogs, we have recently found that upon vacuum ultraviolet photolysis, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) frozen in water ice at low temperatures are easily ionized and indefinitely stabilized as trapped ions (Gudipati; Gudipati & Allamandola). Here we report the first experimental study that shows that PAH ionization energy is significantly lowered in PAH/H2O ices, in agreement with recent theoretical work (Woon & Park). The ionization energy (IE) of the PAH studied here, quaterrylene (C40H20, IE = 6.11 eV), is lowered by up to 2.11 eV in water ice. PAH ionization energy reduction in low-temperature water ice substantially expands the astronomical regions in which trapped ions and electrons may be important. This reduction in ionization energy should also hold for other types of trapped species in waterrich interstellar, circumstellar, and solar system ices. Subject headings: ISM: clouds - methods: laboratory - molecular processes - radiation mechanisms: nonthermal -ultraviolet: ISM - ultraviolet: solar system

Gudipati, Murthy S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

Collins, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Global Observations - The Key to Model Development and Improved Assessments

One application of global models is to predict the response of stratospheric ozone to changes in composition and climate. The recent international ozone assessment included results from three-dimensional models with interactions among the dynamical, photochemical and radiative processes that all influence ozone behavior. The physical basis of such models is far more realistic than that of either the one-dimensional (single profile) models of the 1970's and early 1980's or the two-dimensional (latitude height) models of the late 1980's and 1990's. Observations have played a key role in the model development at all stages. This talk will highlight the role of observations in inspiring broad model improvements that have grown from the effort to reproduce observed relationships or processes, for example the correlations between long-lived constituents seen in aircraft data and the deep unmixed descent of mesospheric air into the winter polar vortices seen from satellite. The talk will also trace the evolution of model evaluation from contour plots showing 'good agreement' to the more rigorous process-oriented evaluation of three-dimensional models that is becoming the norm using the wealth of space-based observations obtained from the late 1970's until present.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

The 'Supercritical Pile' is a very economical gamma ray burst (GRB) model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at an energy sim 1 MeV. We extend this model to include also the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow the spectral and temporal features of this model into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have begun to explore. In particular, one can this way obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the nu F spectra. Furthermore, the existence of a kinematic threshold in this model provides for a operational distinction of the prompt and afterglow GRB stages; in fact, the afterglow stage sets in when the RBW Lorentz factor cannot anymore fulfill the kinematic condition for pair formation in the photon - proton pair production reactions that constitute the fundamental process for the dissipation of the blast wave kinetic energy. We present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Kazanas, Demosthenes↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approx. 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular. one can this may obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the (nu)F(sub nu), spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Mastichiadis, A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of the Mineralogy of Comet Wild 2 Coma Grains to Other Astromaterials

We propose that Kuiper Belt samples (in this case comet coma grains from the Jupiter family comet Wild 2) are recognizably different from the bulk of materials in outer belt asteroids, because of their different formation positions and times in the early solar system. We believe this despite similarities found between some Wild 2 grains and components of carbonaceous chondrites (i.e. some CAI and chondrules). Kuiper Belt samples must preserve measurable mineralogical and compositional evidence of formation at unique positions and times in the early solar nebula, and these formational differences must have imparted recognizable special characteristics. We hypothesize that these characteristics include: (1) Unique major element compositional ranges of common astromaterial minerals, especially olivine and pyroxene; (2) Unique minor element compositions of major silicate phases, especially olivine and low-Ca pyroxene; (3) Degree and effects of radiation processing -- including amorphous rims, metal coatings, and Glass with Embedded Metal and Sulfides (GEMS); (4) Presence of abundant presolar silicate grains as recognized by anomalous oxygen in silicates; (5) Oxidation state of the mineral assemblage. We are working our way through all available Wild 2 samples, selecting 1-2 non-consecutive viable TEM grids from each possible extracted Wild 2 grain. We especially prefer TEM grids from grains for which complete mineralogical details have not been published (which is to say the majority of the extracted grains). We are performing a basic mineralogic survey by E-beam techniques, to establish the essential features of the extracted Wild 2 grains. We are making a particular effort to carefully and accurately measure minor elements of olivine and pyroxene, as these minerals are widespread in astromaterials, and comparisons of their compositions will serve to place the Wild 2 silicates in contact with asteroids, meteorites and chondritic interplanetary dust particles processing. We are also making a special effort to search for mineralogical products of aqueous alteration, since their presence would reveal that Wild 2 was once internally heated, a result with dramatic implications for models of early solar system primitive bodies. Thus far carbonates are the only potential evidence for aqueous alteration for Wild 2.

Frank, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical Properties of Astronomical Silicates with Infrared Techniques (OPASI-T)

Astronomical dust is observed in a variety of astrophysical environments and plays an important role in radiative processes and chemical evolution in the galaxy. Depending upon the environment, dust can be either carbon-rich or oxygen-rich (silicate grains). Both astronomical observations and ground-based data show that the optical properties of silicates can change dramatically with the crystallinity of the material, and recent laboratory research provides evidence that the optical properties of silicate dust vary as a function of temperature as well. Therefore, correct interpretation of a vast array of astronomical data relies on the understanding of the properties of silicate dust as functions of wavelength, temperature, and crystallinity. The OPASI-T (Optical Properties of Astronomical Silicates with Infrared Techniques) project addresses the need for high quality optical characterization of metal-enriched silicate condensates using a variety of techniques. A combination of both new and established experiments are used to measure the extinction, reflection, and emission properties of amorphous silicates across the infrared (near infrared to millimeter wavelengths), providing a comprehensive data set characterizing the optical parameters of dust samples. We present room temperature measurements and the experimental apparatus to be used to investigate and characterize additional metal-silicate materials.

Rinehart, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface temperatures. The TRN (J/m^2/degC) is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature, expresses how those fluxes are reacting to radiant energy inputs. Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN than urban and barren surfaces because the net radiation processed by them is mostly used for latent heat and thermal storage heat rather than sensible heat (heating the air). Significant changes in TRN were observed in the metropolitan area of San Juan for the two analyzed periods reflecting a reduction of this variable in the present from the past consistent with increasing in thermal mass, or intense urbanization.

Gonalez, Jorge E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Bulk Comptonization Model for the Prompt GRM Emission

The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approximately 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor F and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model are sources of potentially very rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular, one can this way obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the nu F(sub nu) spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Kazanas, Demos↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multiyear Statistics of 2-D Shortwave Radiative Effects at Three ARM Sites

This study examines the importance of horizontal photon transport effects, which are not considered in the 1-D calculations of solar radiative heating used by most atmospheric dynamical models. In particular, the paper analyzes the difference between 2-D and 1-D radiative calculations for 2-D vertical cross-sections of clouds that were observed at three sites over 2- to 3-year periods. The results show that 2-D effects increase multiyear 24-hour average total solar absorption by about 4.1 W/sq m, 1.2 W/sq m, and 0.3 W/sq m at a tropical, mid-latitude, and arctic site, respectively. However, 2-D effects are often much larger than these average values, especially for high sun and for convective clouds. The results also reveal a somewhat unexpected behavior, that horizontal photon transport often enhances solar heating even for oblique sun. These findings underscore the need for fast radiation calculation methods that can allow atmospheric dynamical simulations to consider the inherently multidimensional nature of shortwave radiative processes.

Varnai, Tamas↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radiolysis of Sulfuric Acid, Sulfuric Acid Monohydrate, and Sulfuric Acid Tetrahydrate and Its Relevance to Europa

We report laboratory studies on the 0.8 MeV proton irradiation of ices composed of sulfuric acid (H2SO4), sulfuric acid monohydrate (H2SO4 H2O), and sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (H2SO4 4H2O) between 10 and 180 K. Using infrared spectroscopy, we identify the main radiation products as H2O, SO2, (S2O3)x, H3O+, HSO4(exp -), and SO4(exp 2-). At high radiation doses, we find that H2SO4 molecules are destroyed completely and that H2SO4 H2O is formed on subsequent warming. This hydrate is significantly more stable to radiolytic destruction than pure H2SO4, falling to an equilibrium relative abundance of 50% of its original value on prolonged irradiation. Unlike either pure H2SO4 or H2SO4 H2O, the loss of H2SO4 4H2O exhibits a strong temperature dependence, as the tetrahydrate is essentially unchanged at the highest irradiation temperatures and completely destroyed at the lowest ones, which we speculate is due to a combination of radiolytic destruction and amorphization. Furthermore, at the lower temperatures it is clear that irradiation causes the tetrahydrate spectrum to transition to one that closely resembles the monohydrate spectrum. Extrapolating our results to Europa s surface, we speculate that the variations in SO2 concentrations observed in the chaotic terrains are a result of radiation processing of lower hydration states of sulfuric acid and that the monohydrate will remain stable on the surface over geological times, while the tetrahydrate will remain stable in the warmer regions but be destroyed in the colder regions, unless it can be reformed by other processes, such as thermal reactions induced by diurnal cycling.

Loeffler, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling and Assimilating Ocean Color Radiances

Radiances are the source of information from ocean color sensors to produce estimates of biological and geochemical constituents. They potentially provide information on various other aspects of global biological and chemical systems, and there is considerable work involved in deriving new information from these signals. Each derived product, however, contains errors that are derived from the application of the radiances, above and beyond the radiance errors. A global biogeochemical model with an explicit spectral radiative transfer model is used to investigate the potential of assimilating radiances. The results indicate gaps in our understanding of radiative processes in the oceans and their relationships with biogeochemical variables. Most important, detritus optical properties are not well characterized and produce important effects of the simulated radiances. Specifically, there does not appear to be a relationship between detrital biomass and its optical properties, as there is for chlorophyll. Approximations are necessary to get beyond this problem. In this reprt we will discuss the challenges in modeling and assimilation water-leaving radiances and the prospects for improving our understanding of biogeochemical process by utilizing these signals.

Gregg, Watson↗
NASA NTRS2013

Microscopic Simulation and Macroscopic Modeling for Thermal and Chemical Non-Equilibrium

This paper deals with the accurate microscopic simulation and macroscopic modeling of extreme non-equilibrium phenomena, such as encountered during hypersonic entry into a planetary atmosphere. The state-to-state microscopic equations involving internal excitation, de-excitation, dissociation, and recombination of nitrogen molecules due to collisions with nitrogen atoms are solved time-accurately. Strategies to increase the numerical efficiency are discussed. The problem is then modeled using a few macroscopic variables. The model is based on reconstructions of the state distribution function using the maximum entropy principle. The internal energy space is subdivided into multiple groups in order to better describe the non-equilibrium gases. The method of weighted residuals is applied to the microscopic equations to obtain macroscopic moment equations and rate coefficients. The modeling is completely physics-based, and its accuracy depends only on the assumed expression of the state distribution function and the number of groups used. The model makes no assumption at the microscopic level, and all possible collisional and radiative processes are allowed. The model is applicable to both atoms and molecules and their ions. Several limiting cases are presented to show that the model recovers the classical twotemperature models if all states are in one group and the model reduces to the microscopic equations if each group contains only one state. Numerical examples and model validations are carried out for both the uniform and linear distributions. Results show that the original over nine thousand microscopic equations can be reduced to 2 macroscopic equations using 1 to 5 groups with excellent agreement. The computer time is decreased from 18 hours to less than 1 second.

Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2015

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Palins. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

Drought 2012↗