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At least 325 records · Page 18

Vacant niches help predict invasion risk by birds

Abstract Aim If communities have a ceiling determining the number of species that can coexist, then the ability of alien species to establish at any given location should be related to the quantity of vacant niches available. We developed a new approach to estimate the extent to which niches are vacant and then explored the relationship between vacant niches and alien species. Location Global with focal tests in Europe and North America. Taxon Birds. Methods Drawing on a global classification of trophic structures for birds, we calculated a ‘vacant niche ratio’ metric to quantify the expected level of saturation (i.e. number of vacant niches) for each 1° × 1° grid cell globally, based on the difference between expected and observed numbers of bird species for all trophic guilds. Next, we used random forests to examine if the presence of plant‐invertivore (whose food source represents plants, seeds, fruits and invertebrates) and granivore alien bird species was associated with the vacant niche ratio across well‐sampled regions. Results In Europe, we found a significant relationship between alien species and vacant niches, with greater numbers of alien species being found in communities that offered greater numbers of vacant niches overall, and across habitat types. In North America, we found no significant relationship between plant‐invertivores and vacant niches, while for granivores, we found that areas with fewer vacant niches had greater numbers of alien species, especially in forests. However, vacant niches alone correctly predict 69% of the presence of alien bird species when combining both regions and trophic guilds. Main Conclusions Most regions of the world have unsaturated bird communities, with the level of saturation in communities varying within regions and trophic guilds. We found that although often‐neglected, vacant niches are likely to be, at least partially, related with the successful establishment of alien bird species.

González‐del‐Pliego, Pamela↗

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reproductive Factors and Endometrial Cancer Risk Among Women

Despite evidence of an association between reproductive factors and endometrial cancer risk, prospective studies have been conducted mainly in non-Asian countries. To assess the association between reproductive factors, such as number of deliveries, age at menarche, or menopause, and endometrial cancer risk. This cohort study used pooled individual data from 13 prospective cohort studies conducted between 1963 and 2014 in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Participants were Asian women. Data analysis was conducted from September 2019 to April 2023. Reproductive factors were assessed using a questionnaire in each cohort. The main outcome was time to incidence of endometrial cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

risk↗

Integrating helicoid channels for passive control of fiber alignment in direct-write 3D printing

3D printing of fiber-reinforced composites has been receiving increasing attention as an efficient additive approach enabling lightweight, functional, and high-performance components required for industrial applications. The properties of fiber composites significantly depend on internal microstructures, including fiber orientation, distribution, and degree of alignment. Although multiple strategies have been introduced for controlling the fiber composites microstructures, these strategies are mostly active approaches relying on additional control of mechatronics parts, external forces, or intentionally introduced unstable flows inside narrow nozzles. These methods suffer from higher risk of nozzle clogging and requiring extra parts in 3D printing. Here, we introduce helicoid channels into extrusion system as a passive approach to control the fiber alignment without any additional moving parts in direct-write 3D printing. The helicoid channels automatically guide the composite inks and align fibers before flowing into narrow nozzle space, avoiding clogging and improving printability. The analyses indicate that both helicoid surface to volume ratio and helix angle affect the pre-alignment of fibers, leading to tunable mechanical properties of printed fiber-reinforced composites with increased stiffness and strength up to 77.6% and 47.8%, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Rapid Mineral Precipitation During Shear Fracturing of Carbonate-Rich Shales

Target subsurface reservoirs for emerging low-carbon energy technologies and geologic carbon sequestration typically have low permeability and thus rely heavily on fluid transport through natural and induced fracture networks. Sustainable development of these systems requires deeper understanding of how geochemically mediated deformation impacts fracture microstructure and permeability evolution, particularly with respect to geochemical reactions between pore fluids and the host rock. Here, a series of triaxial direct shear experiments was designed to evaluate how fractures generated at subsurface conditions respond to penetration of reactive fluids with a focus on the role of mineral precipitation. Calcite-rich shale cores were directly sheared under 3.5 MPa confining pressure using BaCl 2 -rich solutions as a working fluid. Experiments were conducted within an X-ray computed tomography (xCT) scanner to capture 4-D evolution of fracture geometry and precipitate growth. Three shear tests evidenced nonuniform precipitation of barium carbonates (BaCO 3 ) along through-going fractures, where the extent of precipitation increased with increasing calcite content. Precipitates were strongly localized within fracture networks due to mineral, geochemical, and structural heterogeneities and generally concentrated in smaller apertures where rock:water ratios were highest. The combination of elevated fluid saturation and reactive surface area created in freshly activated fractures drove near-immediate mineral precipitation that led to an 80% permeability reduction and significant flow obstruction in the most reactive core. While most previous studies have focused on mixing-induced precipitation, this work demonstrates that fluid–rock interactions can trigger precipitation-induced permeability alterations that can initiate or mitigate risks associated with subsurface energy systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Passive isolator design for jitter reduction in the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph

Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) is a mission to locate and study extrasolar Earth-like planets. The TPF Coronagraph (TPF-C), planned for launch in the latter half of the next decade, will use a coronagraphic mask and other optics to suppress the light of the nearby star in order to collect visible light from such planets. The required contrast ratio of 5e-11 can only be achieved by maintaining pointing accuracy to 4 milli-arcseconds, and limiting optics jitter to below 5 nm. Numerous mechanical disturbances act to induce jitter. This paper concentrates on passive isolation techniques to minimize the optical degradation introduced by disturbance sources. A passive isolation system, using compliant mounts placed at an energy bottleneck to reduce energy transmission above a certain frequency, is a low risk, flight proven design approach. However, the attenuation is limited, compared to an active system, so the feasibility of the design must be demonstrated by analysis. The paper presents the jitter analysis for the baseline TPF design, using a passive isolation system. The analysis model representing the dynamics of the spacecraft and telescope is described, with emphasis on passive isolator modeling. Pointing and deformation metrics, consistent with the TPF-C error budget, are derived. Jitter prediction methodology and results are presented. Then an analysis of the critical design parameters that drive the TPF-C jitter response is performed.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Exploring the Longwave Radiative Effects of Dust Aerosols

Dust aerosols not only affect air quality and visibility where they pose a significant health and safety risk, but they can also play a role in modulating the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system by directly interacting with local radiative fields. Consequently, dust aerosols can impact regional climate patterns such as changes in precipitation and the evolution of the hydrological cycle. Assessing the direct effect of dust aerosols at the solar wavelengths is fairly straightforward due in part to the relatively large signal-to-noise ratio in broadband irradiance measurements. The longwave (LW) impacts, on the other hand, are rather difficult to ascertain since the measured dust signal level (10 Wm-2) is on the same order as the instrumental uncertainties. Moreover, compared to the shortwave (SW), limited experimental data on the LW optical properties of dust makes it a difficult challenge for constraining the LW impacts. Owing to the strong absorption features found in many terrestrial minerals (e.g., silicates and clays), the LW effects, although much smaller in magnitude compared to the SW, can still have a sizeable impact on the energetics of the Earth-atmosphere system, which can potentially trigger changes in the heat and moisture surface budgets, and dynamics of the atmosphere. The current endeavor is an integral part of an on-going research study to perform detailed assessments of dust direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE) using comprehensive global datasets from NASA Goddards mobile ground-based facility (cf. http://smartlabs.gsfc.nasa.gov/) during previous field experiments near key dust source regions. Here we examine and compare the results from two of these studies: the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities and the 2008 Asian Monsoon Years. The former study focused on transported Saharan dust at Sal Island (16.73N, 22.93W), Cape Verde along the west coast of Africa while the latter focused on Asian dust at Zhangye China (39.082N, 100.276E), a semi-arid region between the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts. NASA Goddards Giovanni system is used to help map out the spatial distribution of retrieved aerosol optical depths across the latter desert regions. 1-D radiative transfer model constrained by local measurements, including spectral photometry/interferometry and lidar for characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in dust properties and atmospheric conditions, is employed to evaluate the local instantaneous LW DARE of dust both at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere along with heating rate profiles for cloud-free atmospheres. The efficiency in LW DARE and its significance relative to the diurnally averaged SW effects are explored and compared in both studies. Found to be non-negligible, LW DARE is an important component in the study of regional climate variation with important implications for more detailed global assessments.

Hansell, Richard A., Jr.↗

Porous condensers can double the efficiency of membrane distillation

Among membrane distillation (MD) configurations, air gap MD (AGMD) has superior energy efficiency at high salinity. However, flooding of the gap prevents optimal thin gap depths as water removal is a challenge. To address these challenges, this work provides the first analysis of efficiency enhancement via porous wicking conductive condensers in MD. To do so, we examined performance with experiments and comprehensive thermo-fluid numerical models; we find that the porous wick condenser significantly improves thermal efficiency, gain output ratio (GOR), and flux. MD experiments show that the porous copper foam improves the thermal efficiency of air gap membrane distillation up to 40 % and water flux up to 144 %. Numerical modeling shows the porous copper foam improves the GOR of membrane distillation in high salinity by 98.7 %, outperforming air gap MD, permeate gap MD, and conductive gap MD. Furthermore, the optimized thickness and permeability of porous condensers significantly help eliminate the risk of flooding in AGMD.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Diffusion bonded boron/aluminum spar-shell fan blade

Design and process development tasks intended to demonstrate composite blade application in large high by-pass ratio turbofan engines are described. Studies on a 3.0 aspect radio space and shell construction fan blade indicate a potential weight savings for a first stage fan rotor of 39% when a hollow titanium spar is employed. An alternate design which featured substantial blade internal volume filled with titanium honeycomb inserts achieved a 14% potential weight savings over the B/M rotor system. This second configuration requires a smaller development effort and entails less risk to translate a design into a successful product. The feasibility of metal joining large subsonic spar and shell fan blades was demonstrated. Initial aluminum alloy screening indicates a distinct preference for AA6061 aluminum alloy for use as a joint material. The simulated airfoil pressings established the necessity of rigid air surfaces when joining materials of different compressive rigidities. The two aluminum alloy matrix choices both were successfully formed into blade shells.

Carlson, C. E. K.↗

Electrostatic Discharge Effects on Thin Film Resistors

Recently, open circuit failures of individual elements in thin film resistor networks have been attributed to electrostatic discharge (ESD) effects. This paper will discuss the investigation that came to this conclusion and subsequent experimentation intended to characterize design factors that affect the sensitivity of resistor elements to ESD. The ESD testing was performed using the standard human body model simulation. Some of the design elements to be evaluated were: trace width, trace length (and thus width to length ratio), specific resistivity of the trace (ohms per square) and resistance value. However, once the experiments were in progress, it was realized that the ESD sensitivity of most of the complex patterns under evaluation was determined by other design and process factors such as trace shape and termination pad spacing. This paper includes pictorial examples of representative ESD failure sites, and provides some options for designing thin film resistors that are ESD resistant. The risks of ESD damage are assessed and handling precautions suggested.

Sampson, Michael J.↗

The Ratio of Debris to Meteoroid-Induced Damage in Near-Earth Space

Orbital debris poses a substantial threat to many Earth-orbiting spacecraft, particularly those near Sun-synchronous altitudes. Man-made debris is not equally prevalent at all altitudes, however; geostationary satellites likely experience more damage from meteoroid impacts than from debris. We have conducted a comparison between debris- and meteoroid-induced damage on cubic aluminum spacecraft orbiting the Earth at a variety of altitudes and orbital inclinations using NASA's latest models of these environments: ORDEM 3.1 and MEM 3. We use the results to determine in which regions the risk is debris- or meteoroid-dominated, and find that debris dominates the risk between altitudes of about 600 and 1300 km above the Earth, while meteoroids dominate at altitudes less than 270 km or greater than 4800 km.

Althea Valkyrie Moorhead↗

The Ratio of Debris- to Meteoroid-Induced Damage in Near-Earth Space

Orbital debris poses a substantial threat to many Earth-orbiting spacecraft, particularly those near Sun-synchronous altitudes. Man-made debris is not equally prevalent at all altitudes, however; geostationary satellites likely experience more damage from meteoroid impacts than from debris. We have conducted a comparison between debris- and meteoroid-induced damage on cubic aluminum spacecraft orbiting the Earth at a variety of altitudes and orbital inclinations using NASA's latest models of these environments: ORDEM 3.1 and MEM 3. We use the results to determine in which regions the risk is debris- or meteoroid-dominated, and find that debris dominates the risk between altitudes of about 600 and 1300 km above the Earth, while meteoroids dominate at altitudes less than 270 km or greater than 4800 km.

Althea Moorhead↗

Mars Flyer Rocket Propulsion Risk Assessment Kaiser Marquardt Testing

This report describes the investigation of a 10-N, bipropellant thruster, operating at -40 C, with monomethylhydrazine (MMH) and 25% nitric oxide in nitrogen tetroxide (MON-25). The thruster testing was conducted as part of a risk reduction activity for the Mars Flyer, a proposed mission to fly a miniature airplane in the Martian atmosphere. Testing was conducted using an existing thruster, designed for MMH and MON-3 propellants. The nitric oxide content of MON-3 was increased to 25%, to lower its freezing point to -55 C. The thruster was conditioned, along with the propellants, to temperature prior to hot firing. Thruster operating parameters included oxidizer-to-fuel mixture ratios of 1.6 to 2.7 and inlet pressure ranging from 689 to 2070 kPa. The test matrix consisted of many 10-second firings and several 60-, 300-, 600-, and 1200-second firings, as well as pulse testing. The thruster successfully accumulated nearly 10,000 seconds of operation without failure, at temperatures ranging from -40 C to 22 C. At nominal inlet pressures, the ignition delay was comparable to MMH/MON-3 operation. The optimal performance for the 8.9-N thruster was determined to be at a mixture ratio of 1.93 with an average specific impulse of 298 sec.

Marquardt, Kaiser↗

Data analysis of the LPSP experiment on OSO-8

The first and statistically most reliable step in the data analysis - the computation of the vertical phase lag between photospheric and chromospheric oscillations - was completed. Unfortunately, the error associated with this calculated phase lag is so great that the result has no physical significance. Since the subsequent data analysis that was originally planned would have much larger associated errors, it was concluded that the data available is insufficient to allow any meaningful results to be derived. Accordingly, the project was terminated. The reasons for the failure of the data are discussed. There are two basic reasons for this failure; (1) the very low signal to noise ratio of the raw data, and (1) the small statistical sample that resulted from the very small number of usable orbits. The final phase of data analysis is described. Finally, some comments and recommendations of a general nature are made concerning this entire contract effort. It is hoped that at least some lessons can be learned from this particular Guest Investigator project, so that future Guest Investigator programs can be pursued more effectively, and with less risk.

Frazier, E. N.↗

Improving and Automating Building Model Data Exchange

There are many instances throughout a project’s lifecycle where there arises a need for quick and accurate risk assessment of building designs. For example, an unexpected design change during construction may necessitate structural engineers to perform a seismic risk assessment on analytical models of the updated building design using high fidelity structural analysis software, such as ANSYS or Abaqus. However, the efficiency of such workflows often depends upon the interoperability of architectural design software and structural analysis software. When the quality of this interoperability is lacking or even non-existent, the efficiency of virtual engineering workflows is hampered, which increases project costs. A McGraw Hill industry survey of professional users of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies found that there is high demand for BIM interoperability for structural analysis, but that the value/difficulty ratio is currently too low for practical use. There have been efforts by the academic community to facilitate model data exchange between the architectural design and structural analysis domains, but such solutions have not been widely adopted by industry, face technical challenges, and oftentimes are limited in applicability for users of various BIM software. Therefore, INL is developing capabilities to improve, automate, and generalize model data exchange between architectural BIM software (e.g., Revit) and structural analysis software (e.g., SAP2000, ANSYS). The goal is to help expedite and automate as much of the pre-processing step for creating analytical models in finite element analysis software as reasonably as possible. Such a "BIM-to-FEA" conversion tool should provide direct benefit to end-users through accuracy, automation, quick turn-around, and wide applicability. To generalize the application of this BIM-to-FEA conversion tool and increase its useability among the many different commercial BIM software currently used by industry, the program is being developed with the concept of openBIM. OpenBIM is the application of non-proprietary, open data standards that allow for BIM model data exchange in a format that is accessible, retainable, and useable for all users. The most widely used open, non-proprietary data exchange format for BIM is the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) schema. IFC is developed by buildingSMART international and is ISO certified (ISO 16739-1:2018). The BIM-to-FEA conversion tool is being developed for compatibility with typical commercial building designs of steel framed structures. The tool is currently capable of importing architectural BIM data of framed building structures, recognizing and extracting the aspects of the model that are required for structural analysis, adjusting the connectivity of frame members, and finally exporting to an analytical model stored in the IFC format. The exported IFC analytical model can then be imported into various openBIM compliant software, such as SAP2000. Such capabilities have already been tested on commercial software, as shown above, and continue to be improved. Work is underway to test the conversion on various commercial BIM software, develop a user-friendly interface, incorporate the program into the broader DeepLynx data warehouse project being developed by INL, and to eventually open-source the tool for the benefit of the community. Future development of the tool envisions the ability for efficient iterative risk assessment of generative building designs, all within a workflow utilizing open-source tools. One such open-source tool will be MOOSE, an advanced finite element analysis tool developed at INL. The conversion tool will also branch out from typical commercial building designs and will aim to incorporate nuclear construction. The aim will be to convert both structural and non-structural components of nuclear facilities, such as curved concrete containment structures and piping systems, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Risk Analysis of Radiological Release from Pu-238 Targets During Manual Handling

Pu-238 Isotope Production Targets are routinely installed in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core, transferred, and stored in the spent fuel canal. These evolutions involve manual handling and manipulation of the targets underwater using long handled tools. The ATR Safety Analysis Report (SAR) postulates a design basis accident which results in damage from manual manipulation of targets, and radiological consequences must be determined for receptors inside the reactor facility, as well as public receptors. This presentation presents the analysis used to determine the radiological consequences due to potential target damage in the ATR canal. The analysis considered radionuclide release fractions, damage ratios for handling evolutions, and entrainment of radionuclides in the canal water.

Advanced Test Reactor↗

Simulation of Premixed and Partially Premixed Jet-in-Crossflow Flames at High Pressure

In this paper, we explore the operational map of a lean axial-staged combustor of premixed and partially premixed reacting jet-in-crossflow flames at high -pressure (5 atm). This study attempts to expand the data to relatively high pressure and could significantly aid scaling to real gas turbine engine conditions at 20–30 atm. High-speed camera, particle image velocimetry (PIV), CH* chemiluminescence, temperature, and pressure measurements were taken and processed to allow accurate reconstruction of six operating points relative to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations under minimal adjustments. Variation of lean main stage (φ = 0.575 and 0.73) and rich jet (φ = 1.1, 4, and 8) equivalence ratio has been investigated for a four mm axial jet. The fully premixed flames were found to be controlled by the crossflow temperature before ignition and the crossflow oxygen content during combustion. Analysis of flame shape and position for the partially premixed operating points describes a lee stabilized as well as a more unsteady windward flame branch. Adjustment of added jet fuel and crossflow temperature along with its corresponding oxygen level is required to attain a compact flame body. Here, the risk of delaying combustion progress is significantly increased at a richer jet φ = 8 and an overshooting, spatially divided flame was attained with a main stage φ = 0.73. Control toward a compact flame body is critical to allow combustion at reasonable reaction rate.

03 NATURAL GAS↗