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NASA NTRS1972

Time variations in solar activity.

Long-term variations in the height of solar maxima and in the relative spottedness of the northern and southern solar hemispheres are considered. Mean sunspot numbers in the present solar cycle are found to be similar to those in cycles with maxima in 1937, 1917, 1860, and 1769. Time variations within the 11-year cycle are considered. It is pointed out that all solar latitudes and longitudes do not attain maximum levels of activity at the same time. Furthermore, the course of solar activity as measured by sunspot number and 2800 MHz flux is seldom smooth but appears to advance by series of pulses or episodes. Study of the declining branches of solar cycles 12 through 19 suggests that there will be 5 to 6 primary fluctuations of activity on the declining branch of cycle 20 in the years 1970.5-1975. At least half of these pulses can be expected to include significantly flare-rich centers of activity.

Dodson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

High-resolution observations of the polar magnetic fields of the sun

High-resolution magnetograms of the solar polar region were used for the study of the polar magnetic field. In contrast to low-resolution magnetograph observations which measure the polar magnetic field averaged over a large area, we focused our efforts on the properties of the small magnetic elements in the polar region. Evolution of the filling factor (the ratio of the area occupied by the magnetic elements to the total area) of these magnetic elements, as well as the average magnetic field strength, were studied during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22, from early 1991 to mid-1993. We found that during the sunspot maximum period, the polar regions were occupied by about equal numbers of positive and negative magnetic elements, with equal average field strength. As the solar cycle progresses toward sunspot minimum, the magnetic field elements in the polar region become predominantly of one polarity. The average magnetic field of the dominant polarity elements also increases with the filling factor. In the meanwhile, both the filling factor and the average field strength of the non-dominant polarity elements decrease. The combined effects of the changing filling factors and average field strength produce the observed evolution of the integrated polar flux over the solar cycle. We compared the evolutionary histories of both filling factor and average field strength, for regions of high (70-80 deg) and low (60-70 deg) latitudes. For the south pole, we found no significant evidence of difference in the time of reversal. However, the low-latitude region of the north pole did reverse polarity much earlier than the high-latitude region. It later showed an oscillatory behavior. We suggest this may be caused by the poleward migration of flux from a large active region in 1989 with highly imbalanced flux.

Lin, H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar flare particle fluences during solar cycles 19, 20 and 21

Satellite data for solar flare particle events during solar cycle 21 (up to July 1982) have been analyzed to obtain event-integrated fluxes of energetic protons and alpha particles. Thirty nine events with proton fluences (E greater than 10 MeV) greater than 10-million/sq cm occurred during 1976-1982. The average flux of protons with kinetic energy greater than 10 MeV is 65 per sq cm/s for this period. The event averaged alpha to proton ratio, in the energy interval 1-22 MeV/n, varies between 0.006 to 0.04, with an average value of about 0.02 for the whole cycle. The flux of protons (with energies greater than 10 MeV) averaged over cycle 21 is lower than those for solar-cycle 20 per sq cm/s based on satellite data, and for solar-cycle 19 378 per sq cm/s based on lunar sample data. There is no definitive correlation between solar-cycle averaged proton fluxes and sunspot numbers.

Mcguire, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar variability and oscillations

Within this decade, observations of total solar irradiance have become good enough to make it possible to study directly the solar luminosity variations on a wide range of time scales, up to several years. At the same time, there has been considerable improvement in understanding the classical indicators of solar activity, such as UV and visible chromospheric lines, soft X-rays, and radio fluxes. The observed variations include the effects of sunspots and plage solar-cycle effects, and signatures of global oscillations and convection. In addition, new characteristic time-scales (154 days and possibly 320 days) have been discovered. This review covers these developments and comments briefly on the subject of helioseismology.

Hudson, Hugh S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The atmospheres of M dwarfs: Observations

After presenting global properties of M dwarfs, the principal diagnostic of activity phenomena occurring in their atmosphere from the geometrical, energetic, and temporal points of view is stressed. Observations of sunspots, plages, flares, and activity cycles are presented. The major sources of activity are discussed with particular emphasis on the generation, intensification, and measurements of stellar magnetic fields.

Rodono, Marcello↗
NASA NTRS1992

Counterstreaming solar wind halo electron events - Solar cycle variations

It is shown that during the interval from August 1978 through December 1990 the frequency of the occurrence of counterstreaming events varied roughly in phase and amplitude with coronal mass ejecta (CME) rates derived from coronagraph observations and with the advance of the solar activity cycle as measured, e.g., by sunspot numbers. It is inferred that CMEs in the solar wind near 1 AU can usually be identified by the counterstreaming solar wind halo electron signature.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Modern Solar Mysteries

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Brief History of Space Climatology: From the Big Bang to the Present

This work presents a space climatology timeline ranging from the Big Bang to the present. It begins with a description of the early universe including the origin and abundances of particles significant for radiation effects. It continues to a transition period to modern times when the era of modern space climatology began to emerge due to discoveries of sunspots and the solar activity cycle, along with development of early astronomical methods. The timeline concludes in the modern era with a description of the radiation environments of galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events and the Van Allen Belts.

Galactic Cosmic Rays↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Brief History of Space Climatology: From the Big Bang to the Present

This work presents a space climatology timeline ranging from the Big Bang to the present. It began with a description of the early universe including the origin and abundances of particles significant for radiation effects. It continued to a transition period to modern times when the era of modern space climatology began to emerge due to discoveries of sunspots and the solar activity cycle, along with development of early astronomical methods. The timeline concluded in the modern era with a description of the radiation environments of galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events and the Van Allen Belts.

Big bang↗
NASA NTRS1994

On the sources of interplanetary shocks at 0.72 AU

In order to understand the solar cycle variation of interplanetary shocks and their driving source at 0.72 AU, a survey of Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) magnetometer and plasma data from 1979-1988 has been conducted. Known shock drivers at 1.0 AU include coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and fast/slow stream interactions. In our analysis, CMEs were identified by a decrease in plasma temperature to background or below accompanied by an increase in plasma density and dynamic pressure. It was also required that the magnetic field exhibit a coherent rotation over about a day and an increase and decline in magnitude on a timescale of hours to days. Stream interactions were identified by a characteristic increase in ion temperature and velocity coincident with a decrease in density and a coincident increase in the total magnetic field magnitude. These signatures were usually preceded within 24 hours by a change in flow angle. In all, 45 shocks were identified: 36 driven by CMEs, 6 resulting from fast/slow stream interactions, and 3 with sources that could not be defined. The shocks driven by CMEs show a solar cycle variation that roughly follows the sunspot number. These shocks all have normals consistent with radial propagation of the shock fronts from the sun. In contrast, the few stream interaction related shocks show a tendency to occur later in the solar cycle and have a broader distribution of shock normals.

Lindsay, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

Raychaudhuri, P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Twenty three year cycle in surface temperatures during the Maunder minimum

Power spectra of Manley's record of central England temperatures for the Maunder minimum have been compared with later periods. It is found that the power in the approximately 23 year cycle is statistically significant in the Maunder minimum portion of this temperature time series. This gives indirect support to the recent suggestion that the solar cycle persisted in the Maunder minimum even though normal sunspot activity was not observed. The results also indicate that the approximately 23 year cycle was stronger during the Maunder minimum than later times in this record.

Hameed, S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comment on the Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred Three-Cycle Quasi-Periodicity of the Planetary Index Ap

Recently, Ahluwalia [1998] reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasi-periodicity in them." Futhermore, on the basis of this inferred quasi-periodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new 3-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum," a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselyn et al. [1997] and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be redressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. In particular, it is shown that Ahluwalia used inappropriate values of the Ap index in his analysis, that the inferred 3-cycle relationship which Ahluwalia claims for both Ap and SSN does not exist for the previous 6-cycle interval (prior to cycle 17) for SSN, that his inferred fit is only of marginal statistical significance (having r = 0.81), and that two alternative precursor fits (both with r = 0.96 or greater) exist which strongly suggest that R max for cycle 23 will be much larger than forecast by Ahluwalia (namely, about 168-187). Thus, caution must be exercised in accepting Ahluwalia's findings.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of the solar Lyman alpha flux from ground based measurements of the Ca II K line

Measurements of the solar Lyman alpha and Ca II K from October 1981 to April 1989 show a strong correlation (r = 0.95) that allows estimation of the Lyman alpha flux at 1 AU from 1975 to December 1989. The estimated Lyman alpha strength of 3.9 x 10 to the 11th + or - 0.15 x 10 to the 11th photons/s sq cm on December 7, 1989 is at the same maximum levels seen in Cycle 21. Relative to other UV surrogates (sunspot number, 10.7 cm radio flux, and He I 10830 line strength), Lyman alpha estimates computed from the K line track the SME measurements well from solar maximum, through solar minimum, and into Cycle 22.

Rottman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

r-mode oscillations in the sun

The relationship between solar r-modes (long-period oscillations dominated by the Coriolis force) and solar activity cycles is investigated statistically. FFT power spectra of the daily Zurich sunspot numbers (R) and of the Greenwich Photoheliographic projected whole sunspot area (A) are obtained for the high-activity years of solar cycles 14 through 21. Both R and A are found to exhibit periods of 22 + or - 1 d, 34 + or - 1.5 d, and 43 + or - 2 d, corresponding to r-modes with (l,m) angular harmonics (2,2), (3,1), and (2,1), respectively.

Blizard, Jane B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗