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NASA NTRS2011

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Putnam, WilliamM.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2012

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Variations of Jupiter's Atmosphere from Observations of Thermal Emission, 1994-2011

We analyzed mid-infrared images of Jupiter's thermal emission, covering approx.1.5 Jovian years, acquired in discrete filters between 7.8 and 24.5 microns. The behavior of stratospheric (approx.10-mbar) and tropospheric (approx.100-400 mbar) temperatures is generally consistent with predictions of seasonal variability, with differences between 100-mbar temperatures +/-50-60deg from the equator on the order of +/-2. Removing this effect, there appear to be long-term quasi-periodic variability of tropospheric temperatures, whose amplitude, phase and period depend on latitude. The behavior of temperatures in the Equatorial Zone (EZ) suggests a approx.4-6-year period with amplitude of about +/-1-1.5 K in temperature. At mid-latitudes, the periodicity is more distinct with amplitudes around +/-1.5-2.5 K and 4-8 year periods. The 4.2-year variation of stratospheric temperatures known as the quasiquadrennial oscillation or "QQO" (Leovy et al. 1991, Nature 354, 380) continued during this period. There were no variations of zonal mean temperatures associated with any of the "global upheaval" events that have produced dramatic changes of jupiter's visible appearance and cloud cover, although there are colder discrete regions associated with updrafts, e.g. the early stages of the re-darkening ("revival") of the South Equatorial Belt (SEB) in late 2010. On the other hand increases in the visible albedos ("fades") of belts are accompanied by increases in the thickness of a 700-mbar cloud layer (most likely NH3 ice) and clouds at higher pressures, together with the mixing ratio of NH3 gas near 400 mbar (above its condensation level). These quantities decrease during re-darkening ("revival") episodes, during which we note discrete features that are exceptions to the general correlation between dark albedos and minimal cloudiness. In contrast to all these changes, the meridional distribution of the 240-mbar para-H2 fraction appears to be invariant in time.

Orton, G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Monthly Representations of Mid-Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Earth Observing System Aqua spacecraft was launched in May of 2002 and acquires hyperspectral infrared spectra used to generate a wide range of atmospheric products including temperature, water vapor, and trace gas species including carbon dioxide. Here we present monthly representations of global concentrations of mid-tropospheric carbon dioxide produced from 8 years of data obtained by AIRS between the years of 2003 and 2010. We define them as "representations" rather than "climatologies" to reflect that the files are produced over a relatively short time period and represent summaries of the Level 3 data. Finally, they have not yet been independently validated. The representations have a horizontal resolution of 2.0 deg x 2.5 deg (Latitude x Longitude) and faithfully reproduce the original 8 years of monthly L3 CO2 concentrations with a standard deviation of 1.48 ppm and less than 2% outliers. The representations are intended for use in studies of the global general circulation of CO2 and identification of anomalies in CO2 typically associated with atmospheric transport. The seasonal variability and trend found in the AIRS CO2 data are discussed.

Carbon Dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2013

Satellite Remote Sensing: Aerosol Measurements

Aerosols are solid or liquid particles suspended in the air, and those observed by satellite remote sensing are typically between about 0.05 and 10 microns in size. (Note that in traditional aerosol science, the term "aerosol" refers to both the particles and the medium in which they reside, whereas for remote sensing, the term commonly refers to the particles only. In this article, we adopt the remote-sensing definition.) They originate from a great diversity of sources, such as wildfires, volcanoes, soils and desert sands, breaking waves, natural biological activity, agricultural burning, cement production, and fossil fuel combustion. They typically remain in the atmosphere from several days to a week or more, and some travel great distances before returning to Earth's surface via gravitational settling or washout by precipitation. Many aerosol sources exhibit strong seasonal variability, and most experience inter-annual fluctuations. As such, the frequent, global coverage that space-based aerosol remote-sensing instruments can provide is making increasingly important contributions to regional and larger-scale aerosol studies.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Strong Temporal Variation Over One Saturnian Year: From Voyager to Cassini

Here we report the combined spacecraft observations of Saturn acquired over one Saturnian year (approximately 29.5 Earth years), from the Voyager encounters (1980-81) to the new Cassini reconnaissance (2009-10). The combined observations reveal a strong temporal increase of tropic temperature (approximately 10 Kelvins) around the tropopause of Saturn (i.e., 50 mbar), which is stronger than the seasonal variability (approximately a few Kelvins). We also provide the first estimate of the zonal winds at 750 mbar, which is close to the zonal winds at 2000 mbar. The quasi-consistency of zonal winds between these two levels provides observational support to a numerical suggestion inferring that the zonal winds at pressures greater than 500 mbar do not vary significantly with depth. Furthermore, the temporal variation of zonal winds decreases its magnitude with depth, implying that the relatively deep zonal winds are stable with time.

Cassini↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

Tropical Storm↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

AGCM↗

NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallowwater inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used.Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as lowas 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

Geolocations accuracy↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Cloud Fields in the UK Met Office HadGEM3-UKCA Model Using the CCCM Satellite Data Product to Advance Our Understanding of the Influence of Clouds on Tropospheric Composition and Chemistry

To determine the role of clouds in driving inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability of trace gases in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with a particular focus on the importance of cloud modification of photolysis. To evaluate the cloud fields and their vertical distribution in the HadGEM3 model utilizing CCCM, a unique 3-D cloud data product merged from multiple A-Train satellites (CERES, CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS) developed at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Varma, Sunil↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Plasma Aerocapture and Entry System for Manned Missions and Planetary Deep Space Orbiters

A rapid mission to Mars requires a large change in vehicle velocity upon arrival to establish a stable orbit. This demand is even greater for a Neptune science, requiring many kilometers per second of V. It is clear from past mission studies that a manned Mars mission and deep space planetary orbiters require aerobraking and aerocapture which use aerodynamic drag forces to slow the spacecraft. Aerocapture would enable long term studies of the outer planets and moons that would not be possible with existing braking methodologies. While the ability to utilize these atmospheres to slow down and capture spacecraft would dramatically reduce the cost, launch mass, and travel time, currently planned approaches require significant additional spacecraft mass and risk as the spacecraft must descend deep into the planetary atmosphere in order to produce significant drag on a relatively small aeroshell. The plasma based Magnetoshell being developed in this program holds the potential to perform the desired braking with significantly increased drag and control while dramatically reducing mass. Most importantly, this technology significantly lowers the risk involved with aerocapture thereby making manned planetary missions possible. The fundamental physics of the Magnetoshell is based on demonstrated experimental results. Successful implementation will dramatically decrease radiation exposures, mission risk, launch cost, and launch mass. Implementation of aerobraking by employing a solid deflector or aeroshell as a method for orbit insertion and circularization has been successfully demonstrated in the past, resulting in launch mass savings greater than 50%. In order to reduce the effect of frictional heating and dynamic pressure on the typically fragile aeroshell, or worse solar panels, the braking must be distributed over many orbital passes at a high altitude in the less dense regions of the atmosphere. It can thus take several months for a meter-scale, 1000 kg, aeroshell to execute the many elliptic orbital passes through the atmosphere to achieve the required V. This rather slow method of braking not only reduces frictional heating and dynamic forces, but also avoids unpredictable dynamic behavior due to turbulence, as well as unknown and seasonally variable atmospheric composition and temperature which has led to dangerous, mission-critical events. For exploration class missions such as DRA 5.0 aerocapture and Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are proposed for breaking at Mars for cargo missions. Traditional aerocapture is considered too risky for manned missions. Even with the enormous mass savings that aerocapture allows, it still requires 80 tons of aeroshell and significantly increased launch mass and propellant. As will be shown, by using Magnetoshells for aerobraking, the DRA 5.0 mission will save 224 metric tons (MT) and greater than $2 B in launch costs. Beyond the dramatic savings for existing mission architectures, a low-mass, risk-free aerocapture system would allow much more rapid missions to Mars and deep space orbiters by allowing direct, faster trajectories. As will be shown, the plasma Magnetoshell Aerobraking, Aerocapture, and Entry System (AAES) not only reduces mass and cost while enabling significant new mission architectures, but also significantly reduces radiation exposures by decreasing trip times.

Manned Missions↗

NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal and Diurnal Opportunities for XCH4, XCO2, and XCO for the Amazonian Rainforest Region Allowing Sampling and Validation

There is considerable interest in the aggregate methane emissions from the Amazon and similar moist tropical regions, and XCH4 measurements are well suited to constrain sources to the global atmosphere. Similarly, XCO2 measurements constrain CO2 in the region. XCO helps to partition CO2 patterns among burning and respiration processes. GeoCarb may allow these column measurements over the Western Hemisphere, but satellite retrieval require exacting calibration and validation by sun-focused Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS). The rarity of sufficiently large gaps in the cloud cover over the Amazon and similar rainforests restricts the validation opportunities for useful FTS observations and even more the opportunities for accurate retrievals. TropOMI observational statistics are extremely poor for the region. We have used two data sources to evaluate FTS opportunities at Manaus, Brazil, an FTS operated for 8 months near Manaus by Mavendra Dubey, and also sun-photometer measurements at several stations. The promise of using data from other satellites, e.g. GOES-16 ( (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization gaps and aerosol layering will be described. We report initial results on five questions: (1) how frequent are observing opportunities of FTS?, (2) What evidence is there that gaps in clouds are wide enough for satellite retrievals at an appropriate accuracy, (3) What is the diurnal and seasonal variability of cloud gaps?, and (4) What limitations are currently suggested for unbiased FTS measurement of XCH4 due to diurnal effects, and (5) What evidence is there for incidence of problematic high aerosol extinction at higher layers of the troposphere (800 hPa to 120 hPa) which alter the XCH4 light-paths?

Chatfield, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2019

ALMA Spectral Imaging of Titan Contemporaneous with Cassini's Grand Finale

The Cassini mission performed 127 targeted ybys of Titan during its 13 yr mission to Saturn, culminating in the Grand Finale between 2017 April and September. Here we demonstrate the use of the Atacama Large Millimeter/ submillimeter Array (ALMA) to continue Cassini's legacy for chemical and climatological studies of Titan's atmosphere. Whole-hemisphere, interferometric spectral maps of HCN, HNC, HC3N, CH3CN, C2H3CN, C2H5CN,and C3H8 were obtained using ALMA in 2017 May at moderate (0 2, or 1300 km) spatial resolution, revealing the effects of seasonally variable chemistry and dynamics on the distribution of each species. The ALMA submillimeter observations of HCN and HC3N are consistent with Cassini infrared data on these species, obtained in the same month. Chemical/dynamical lifetimes of a few years are inferred for C2H3CN and C2H5CN, in reasonably close agreement with the latest chemical models incorporating the sticking of C2H5CN to stratospheric aerosol particles. ALMA radial limb ux proles provide column density information as a function of altitude, revealing maximum abundances in the thermosphere (above 600 km) for HCN, HNC, HC3N, and C2H5CN. This constitutes the rst detailed measurement of the spatial distribution of HNC, which is found to be conned predominantly to altitudes above 730 ± 60 km. The HNC emission map shows an east-west hemisphericasymmetry of 13% ± 3%. These results are consistent with very rapid production (and loss) of HNC in Titan's uppermost atmosphere, making this molecule an effective probe of short-timescale (diurnal) ionospheric processes.

Cordiner, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Mercury Lander Mission Concept Study for the Next Decadal Survey

Mariner 10 provided our first closeup reconnaissance of Mercury during its three flybys in 1974 and 1975. MESSENGER’s 2011–2015 orbital investigation enabled numerous discoveries, several of which led to substantial or complete changes in our fundamental understanding of the planet. Among these were the unanticipated, widespread presence of volatile elements (e.g., Na, K, S); a surface with extremely low Fe abundance whose darkening agent is likely C; a previously unknown landform—hollows— that may form by volatile sublimation from within rocks exposed to the harsh conditions on the surface; a history of expansive effusive and explosive volcanism; substantial radial contraction of the planet from interior cooling; offset of the dipole moment of the internal magnetic field northward from the geographic equator by ~20% of the planet’s radius; crustal magnetization, attributed at least in part to an ancient field; unexpected seasonal variability and relationships among exospheric species and processes; and the presence in permanently shadowed polar terrain of water ice and other volatile materials, likely to include complex organic compounds. Mercury’s highly chemically reduced and unexpectedly volatile-rich composition is unique among the terrestrial planets and was not predicted by earlier hypotheses for the planet’s origin. As an end-member of terrestrial planet formation, Mercury holds unique clues about the original distribution of elements in the earliest stages of the Solar System and how planets (and exoplanets) form and evolve in close proximity to their host stars. The BepiColombo mission promises to expand our knowledge of this planet and to shed light on some of the mysteries revealed by the MESSENGER mission. However, several fundamental science questions raised by MESSENGER’s pioneering exploration of Mercury can only be answered with in situ measurements from the planet’s surface.

Ernst, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The PetitSat Mission – Science Goals and Instrumentation

The mid- and low-latitude ionosphere is home to a variety of plasma density irregularities, including depletions (bubbles), enhancements (blobs), and small-scale scintillation. Previous studies of plasma density enhancements observed using ROCSAT data have posited that these structures are the direct result of the formation of bubbles near the geomagnetic equator. However, more recent observations from the C/NOFS satellite suggest that multiple mechanisms are responsible for forming plasma enhancements, with wave action in the ionosphere and thermosphere as a significant driver of the enhanced densities. Indeed, statistical analysis of enhancements observed from satellites resembles the statistics of Medium-Scale Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances (MSTIDs) with respect to seasonal variability and solar activity. petitSat is a CubeSat mission designed to examine the link between MSTIDs and plasma enhancements. The mission will provide in situ measurements of the plasma density, 3D ion drift, as well as ion and neutral composition. The instrument suite includes a combined retarding potential analyzer and cross-track drift meter and an ion-neutral mass spectrometer. This instrument suite will provide comprehensive information about the fluctuations in plasma, as well as changes in the neutral profile. petitSat will launch into a 51 deg inclination orbit at 400 km (consistent with an International Space Station deployment), allowing for numerous conjunctions with the Boston University All-Sky Imager network over the mission lifetime.

J. Klenzing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Nature of the Arctic’s Positive Lapse-rate Feedback: Cause or Symptom of Arctic Amplification

Radiative energy fluxes exiting the atmosphere towards the surface and to space are sensitive to the vertical structure of temperature. Under anthropogenic forcing, this sensitivity gives rise to the lapse-rate feedback. Shown to be negative in the tropics and positive in the Arctic, studies argue that the lapse-rate feedback is the primary cause of Arctic Amplification. While mechanistically the negative tropical lapse-rate feedback is understood, the mechanics of the positive Arctic lapse-rate feedback are less clear. Previous arguments state that the Arctic’s stable stratification is the origin of its positive lapse-rate feedback. We present results using CMIP5 and CMIP6 model output that arguing that the magnitude, spatial variability, seasonality, and inter-model spread in the Arctic lapse-rate feedback is controlled by surface properties and atmosphere-ocean-sea ice energy exchanges, not the degree of stable stratification. We argue that the Arctic’s positive lapse-rate feedback is a seasonal and regional phenomenon that manifests from local surface characteristics and surface albedo, ice insulation, and thermal inertia feedbacks that cause surface warming to outpace atmospheric warming in sea ice-retreat regions. We view the Arctic’s positive lapse-rate feedback as a symptom rather than the primary cause of Arctic Amplification.

Patrick Charles Taylor↗

NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Nature of the Arctic’s Positive Lapse Rate Feedback Cause or Symptom of Arctic Amplification

Patrick C Taylor↗